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HandiGambling 211 (Churchill Off-Turf)
Today's HandiGambling 211 exercise is the ninth race from Churchill Downs, an entry-level allowance for three-year-olds and older at 1 1/2 miles on the main track. THIS RACE HAS BEEN RAINED MOVED FROM THE TURF COURSE.
Remember that you have a mythical $100 with which to wager on the race, and the entrant with the highest money total will receive a "Monthly Enhanced 60-Card Past Performance Plan." Anyone going over the $100 limit will be disqualified. Please post your plays and analysis to the blog. Past performances are available at the previous blog post. In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference. One entry per person please. I reserve the right to approve or deny any entries.
I know that there is a time issue for some of you, but let's remember why we began the HandiGambling races in the first place. The goal was to share ideas on why we like these horses, and why we're betting them the way we are. I'm not asking for a novel, but if you could spare a sentence or two outlining your handicapping angles, and thought processes about wagering, it would be appreciated.
Let's scratch #6 LEJADAMI, #7 CARNIVAL RIDE, and #8 BUCHERON.
The main track is listed as SLOPPY.
It's hard to have a strong opinion on this one.
#2 KABOB's only career victory came on turf, but he's placed in both of his previous dirt performances, including a runner-up effort here at Churchill Downs on May 7. In that seven-furlong heat, Kabob rallied against the grain of a speed-favoring track to finish second behind odds-on winner Belo Sorte.
Kabob didn't run well on synthetics on July 29 and has been mired in this condition for a long time so it's hard to get excited about his chances, and the distance is a great unknown as well.
Still, I liked his Churchill race enough to give him top billing.
#1 SHAKEYOGROOVETHING and #9 CURSESANDBLESSINGS are the only multi-winners in the field, and both have been plying their trade at Presque Isle Downs in long-distance races. The former may be the main speed of the race, and he went gate-to-wire in a two-mile affair to begin this form cycle. He is three for four on wet tracks and could be long-gone with an alert break. Cursesandblessings outfinished Shakeyogroovething on September 2, but the Tapeta at Presque Isle may have slightly favored closers that day. If you toss his poor turf effort last time out, you're left with a gelding that has been in the exacta in four straight races.
#3 ETHICAL LAWYER is a maiden facing winners. He was 82-1 against $50,000 maiden claimers last time out, and is hard to recommend.
#4 HARRODS CREEK ran third in the Cradle Stakes over 'good' dirt as a two-year-old, but may be slightly better on the grass at this point of his career. His most recent effort, a second-place performance on turf, showed that he can handle this demanding distance.
#5 SLAMMY BOY is the x-factor of this difficult race. He has good dirt numbers, but was listed as a vet scratch on June 6, raced twice after that on grass, and then has been away from the races for over four months. His trainer, the underrated Anthony Reinstelder, has sent out nothing but live horses at this meet.
It's a race that I won't be playing with real cash.
As for HandiGambling, I'll go this way:
$100 Win #2 KABOB
Best of luck to all.
Saturday’s Plays Churchill 9th-Love this race-“chaos” time. In the end, I’m going with Snow Top-she keeps getting better and the connections have a terrific ROI. Delta 5th-Think Quindici rolls over these. Delta 7th-Bug Juice. Long time fan of Levine, this one might be the real deal. Distance is the only question. GGF-6th & 7th-Play of the day-#6 Playful Argument (6-1)-normal second out improvement should result in a big win. Strong connections. Main competition might be the 8-Windy Sails-strong 1st time starter ROI for Klokstad. I’ll box them and put them both in doubles to Joe Carl (#7) in the 7th-Joe should roll. GGF 3rd-#5 Hollywood Fierce (4-1). Strong ROI play on Hendricks-186 starts on synthetics with an ROI of $3.35. That is, by far, the most starts I’ve ever seen with an ROI over $3.00 A must play for me. Box him to #6-Wealthy Advisor. All ATB bets with the exactas and doubles mixed in. Good luck to all of you today.
SR, I was very disappointed to see The Pamplemouse isnt gonna make it back to the races. We will definitely be going to the restaurant if I ever qualify:) I have a Horseplayers world series contest today at Monmouth so you never know. Mike A, I will be at Monmouth today. If you arent busy or if you are thinking about coming over to Jersey, send me an e-mail. I will have my lap-top with me. C, Dont even bother arguing with the sea bass. The guy is obviously a legend...... in his own mind. He reminds of a guy I grew up with. We used to call him "A Friend of Mine." We called him that because no matter what you did or what story you told he always had a friend that did it bigger or better. If you hit a 4 team parlay, a friend of his once hit a 5 team parlay. If you ran a mile in 4 minutes, a freind of his ran a mile in 3:59. If you caught a 4 lb. trout, he caught a 8 lb trout. If you made a excersize video called 8 minute abs, he made one called 7 minute abs. You see my point? You just cant argue with those kind of people C. They are always right, even when they are wrong. I mean how can you possibly argue with a man that knows everything about everything.
Dan R, since I'm an old coach W's & L's has always been my bottom line. In this Century I'd place her #1 hands down . I didn't see Man'o 'War but I give him credit for his record. Like I said before it would be hard to argue MOW faced the competition Z did . Native Dancer has a similar record as well and he probably didn't face the competion Z did either but his lone loss was by a head. Based on record and competition #1 Z #2 Spectacular Bid #3 Dr Fager #4 Man'oWar # 5 Native Dancer. MOW and ND faced lesser competition based on travel limitations of there eras even in the best fields they ever faced. Spectacular Bid never lost a race between 7f and 10f 24/24. Those 5 are hard to seperate for me so I could be wrong in my judgement. Blame would beat hell out of Onion, Prove out , Angle light etc IMO. Big Red #2 is the most overated horse in all history based on his meager 76 % win pct. IMO. What the hell do I know though . I'm guessing just like everybody else. I just don't like the she never faced anybody or shes not fast enough argument like I said before. Because its not true. Most of the so called top 10 never faced a field that included more than 1/2 a dozen Gr. 1 stakes winners or the equivilent of gr.1 stakes before the grading system was introduced. Cheers
BSB - Boise State is no good not because they play on blue turf but because they beat up on cream puffs all year (like my alma mater, NMSU), then play one decent team a year when they play in bowl game. Oh, wait, once in a while Boise State schedules one non-cupcake at the beginning of the season. So while the rest of the schools beat each other up, Boise sits back and takes it easy. Not so hard to play one hard game a year. Now when Boise State joins the PAC 10 like my legal alma mater or the Big Ten like my sentimental favorite, we'll talk. Not really intending to get into the Zenyatta debate just couldn't resist the analogy as a college football and horseracing enthusiast. Also, same goes for TCU and if memory serves me correctly, they even play on real grass. See I'm not a hater. Annie, SR, TBTA, Bruce Springsteed!
robert SD I so agree with your latest post on Zenyatta. Nicely said. I also hope you are able to see her retirement on Dec 5th...since you are somewhat in the LA area? Annie I love the name Bruce Springsteed (since you mentioned him) and he didn't go unnoticed in that race. 'Onward and upward' ! Scianc22 Good luck in the contest ! AHA! ...no captchas!
Relative to the retirement of our stars (Lookin at Lucky, Blame, etc), I recall a conversation I had on a weekly radio show in Baltimore in the latter part of 1979. It was hosted by Dick Wooley, who was our race caller at the time. The owner of Spectacular Bid was the guest. Still smarting from the early retirement of Secretariat, a few years before, I got a chance to ask Mr. Meyerhoff if he thought the income from retiring "The Bid" as a 3 year old was essential to his well being. There was a long pause, during which, I thought he felt insulted. While his response was not definitive, I like to think that I had something to do with the decision to race Spectacular Bid as a 4-year old. Maybe similar confrontations with the wealthy (in most cases) connections of our heroes could keep them on the track and out of the breeding shed for an extra season.
Dan R, First, the filly was Ruffian and she was #35. Based on Z's BODY of WORK as displayed by LSD on this blog awhile back, A LOT MORE. Defeated the winners of over 50 Gr.1 stakes and over 200 stakes ( the good filly Ruffian is a puke compared to that) . Finished in front of many more when beaten by a short head in her only defeat in 20 races. The only female to ever win the BC Classic. The only female to ever finish 2nd in the BC Classic. The only horse of either sex to ever win two different BC races . (does anyone here believe Zenyatta couldn't have won 3 straight BC Distaffs ala goldi's 3 miles ) The only mare ever to win the Vanity 3 times (there are some Vanity winners on that list of 100 ) the only mare ever to win the C. L.Hirsch and Lady's Secret 3 times. One of a few mares to win the Apple Blossom twice. The only horse to win the BC Classic and return to run 2nd in the BC Classic ( not positive but pretty sure )There are BC Classic winners that tried and couldn't do that, higher than 35 on the list. In contrast Man'O'War #1 defeated a GRAND total of two, yes 2, hdcp. horses in his CAREER. (both match races, 6 of his 21 races were match races, 4 others were 3 horse fields , 12 of 21 were 4 or less, nice body of work Big Red # 1) Niether Man'o'War #1 or Secretariat #2 ever faced a field anything approaching Zenyatta's BC Classics ( go ahead wise guys argue differently on that point, I can use a good laugh) More consecutive wins than ECLIPSE himself. Ruffian never thought about doing anything near that body of work. LOL. I could say more about body of work but it shouldn't be necessary. If you want to tell me about the body of work of others in the top 35 please feel free to do so. Second, Beyer camoulflaging his contempt for Zenyatta and Synthetics behind the Hardheaded gambler shopping value line is meaningless when juxtoposed against all of his other comments regarding Z. Paraphrasing, he also said Zenyatta's place in history is securely fixed , she's about as good as Blame. She's to slow because his made up numbers say she is. She's a synthetic specialist helped by closer biased tracks,etc. Check with Steve T for stats on that mythical closers bias on California synthetic tracks !! The Pamplemouse was a deep closer right ? Ask him how much value he was shopping for when he bet Eliza at .30 on june 13th 1993 when she finished 4th of 5 LOL(Kramer gives a funny account of it in Scared Money,buy it and read it sometime you'll enjoy the book, its not a how to). One of my buddies had me take $800 for him to the track that day $400 WP. I put the money in my pocket and laughed all the way home from the track, because I'm a Hard- hearted speculator. If Eliza had won it would've cost me about $160. If she'd have placed I'd have made about $360. Thanks for the $800 R.T. Ol'buddy. I bet Zenyatta twice even though I've seen her run over 10 times. I didn't bet this years Classic. Personally ,I don't care who Egghead or The Dogman bet or tout (not necessarilly the same thing, keep that in mind). I do care when they twist things as to not be representitive of the truth when regarding Z however. I also care when people parrot the Body of Work line without actually knowing the Body of Work of Z or the other so-called greats. Or worse yet,actually knowing the Body of Work and choosing to tell the Big Lie anyway. Nothing personal DanR just doing my UnderDog impression ( ask Curt V to post the UnderDog theme song ? He knows it and he knows it was my favorite. He understands me even if he says he doesn't. LOL) I discovered a secret technique for log splitting today. I visualize the log as being the top of Beyer's shinny head !! My maul goes through them like butter when I do that. LOL. Abe Lincoln ain't got nothin' on me now !! Honestly I'd never hurt Andy for real . He's hilarious. LOL C, all the fair tracks are dirt. We get plenty of horses from other states as well as South America and British Columbia. Even the Orient on occasion. As I'm sure other synthetic tracks in the mid-west and Canada do. Instead of saying it , prove it with a random sample of at least 600 races not a cherry picked 16. I'm not skewing the 0/43 16 race sample in any way(someone else is though),but I explain it this way. Not one of those 43 was the best horse in any of the 16 races on those 4 days. If you believe they were than tell me which ones and what made them better as compared to who beat them. D'funnybone ? Careless Jewel ? Summer Bird ? Ginger Punch ? Indian Blessing ? Regal Ransom ? Music Note ? Sara Louise ? Don't make me laugh. Sara Louise finished 4th at SA . She finished LAST at Churchill as the favorite I think (not sure on that ) The criteria given for the 16 race 0/43 non-study was given as horses that ran their last one on dirt . Not horses that had never raced on anything but dirt. So don't try to SKEW it into something else. Talk is cheap,I like facts when it comes to stuff like that. C'mon C , I've told you to bring your A game with me before. Dazzle me with your brilliance. I'll jump on your bandwagon if you can prove it. I'm not afraid to admit I'm wrong on those rare occasions when I am . LOL. You're a computer man. Feed some data into your computer and come back with something convincing. Not the same old weak blather you've been bringing to the table. Take a look at that old gelding Bold Chieftain. Is he a dirt horse or a synthetic horse or a turf horse ? I agree Zenyatta is not an ordinary horse. Good luck to anyone playing today. I'll be watching football and enjoying my vacation. Boise State isn't any good because they can only play on blue synthetic grass. LOL. LSD , can you post the PP's of Bold Chieftain and Go Between please. If so thanks in advance and good luck to you this weekend. cheers BSB
New Jersey politics at its finest. What Finley leaves out is that one of Christie's best friends is an owner of an Atlantic City casino. Although as is typical of most NJ politics, Chris and his brother have been taking care of each others for years. His bro is a Wall St guy who, along with his friends, bankrolls Chris's political campaigns and in return, all kinds of court cases and laws are passed to benefit bro and his buddies. Finley lives in the same town that I did. He is not joking about the property taxes. The amount he pays is for a modest house for the area. The schools have been going down for a decade. Losing the racing industry will only make NJ more crowded and developed with field after field of cheap built, mostly empty of furniture Mc Mansions. It's disgusting. I don't happen to care for much of what Finley writes, but this time he has hit the nail on the head. http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/horse/columns/story?columnist=finley_bill&id=5796039
With the retirements of LOL,Blame and QR, among others,the industry continues to cannabalize itself to it's rapid demise.These greedy owners are killing it by not allowing the momentum started by Z to grow,and run their horses longer . Next yrs Donn,'Big cap, and other "GR 1's" will be run by gr 3 and minor stakes horses. And any stars that rise will only run in 5 races then retire.As a 25 yr fan,I am rapidly losing interest in the sport,and with the decline in bettable races due to horse shortages,it won't be long until I am done with the "sport"
C, you're right about most horses not being able to maintain their form throughout an entire year. To test the theory they don't have to though. They just have to be able to win once (or not) going dirt to synthetic. If the overall number stays at less than 5 % I'll consider the theory valid with a sample of 600-1000 races with at least one runner going dirt to synthetic. Is that being fair ? Or is it unreasonable ?