10/28/2010 4:17PM

HandiGambling 207 (Charles Town maidens)


Today's HandiGambling 208 exercise is the sixth race from Charles Town, a maiden special weight for juvenile fillies at 6 1/2 furlongs.

Remember that you have a mythical $100 with which to wager on the race, and the entrant with the highest money total will receive a "Monthly Enhanced 60-Card Past Performance Plan." Anyone going over the $100 limit will be disqualified. Please post your plays and analysis to the blog.  Past performances are available at the previous blog post.  In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference. One entry per person please. I reserve the right to approve or deny any entries.

I know that there is a time issue for some of you, but let's remember why we began the HandiGambling races in the first place. The goal was to share ideas on why we like these horses, and why we're betting them the way we are. I'm not asking for a novel, but if you could spare a sentence or two outlining your handicapping angles, and thought processes about wagering, it would be appreciated.

I'm posting this early so don't have the track condition or any late changes. 

For now, let's scratch - #8 FLO JO'S AFFAIR and #11 VALID VISION.

On the original overnight, jockey J. D. Acosta was listed on both the #2 GLACKETY and the #5 SHORT HILL KIT KAT.  Acosta ended up aboard Glackety, and that's where I'm going to be for this week's HandiGambling exercise. 
Glackety is a half to Southern Fiction, a stakes-winner at one mile on both dirt and turf.  A horrible disappointment in New York for Dogwood Stables, Glackety improved in her first start over the Charles Town oval in October 7.  After being bumped at the start, she was hustled up along the inside into a contending position, finished evenly to finish third, and galloped out past the runner-up.  The winner of that race was an odds-on favorite, and Glackety may show improved speed stretching out around two turns for the first time in her career. 

#3 SHORT HILL KIT KAT owns the best Beyer Speed Figure of this group, and she earned it when fourth in a statebred stakes race at 4 1/2 furlongs no October 16.  Like Glackety, she chased a heavily-favored winner in her most recent start, and wouldn't be a surprise at all at this additional distance. 

Those are the two that I would use in multi-race wagers like the Pick 4.

As for the rest,

#1 ABOVE THE FOREST draws an advantageous inside post position, but just hasn't shown much in two previous starts.  She finished far behind Glackety on October 7, and must face that rival once again here.

#3 PAGAN PRIESTESS is by Oratory, the winner of the Grade 2 Peter Pan at 1 1/8 miles with a 114 Beyer Speed Figure.  Oratory is 3-30 with juvenile debut runners.  This barn certainly wins their share of races, but Pagan Priestess will have to navigate two turns for her career debut, and has yet to work five furlongs. 

#4 STELLA M, also by Oratory, is out of Your So Fine, a debut winner that finished second in the seven-furlong Broadway Handicap with an 85 Beyer Speed Figure.  There isn't a published workout in the last 23 days. 

#6 TREZ ships in from Delaware after trailing a field of five throughout in her caerer debut.  The dam won her second start by nine lengths at two, and finished second that year in the Polly Drummond Stakes at 1 1/16 miles.  The winner of that sloppy Delaware race on September 27 returned to finish fifth in the restricted Small Wonder Stakes at Delware with a 56 Beyer.  Trained by high-percentage conditioner, Stephanie Beattie, Trez is eligible to improve.

#7 MISS QUICK PUNCH showed good speed in her first start around two turns, and figures to be pushing the pace once again.  Still, the presence of Glackety may make it hard for her to establish a clear early advantage ala the September 29 race, and the three horses to come out of that race all failed to hit the board next-out (34 Beyer top).

#9 PERFECT RULER has some angles in her favor as she adds Lasix for the second lifetime try.  She raced very greenly in her career debut when finishing behind Miss Quick Punch and can move forward off that effort.  She wouldn't be the worst exotics play in the world.  

#10 STORMY PASS is by Deputy Storm, a multiple stakes-winning sprinter with a 105 Beyer top.  From his first crop, Stormy Pass is 2-11 with his first-time starters.  There are lots of gaps on the tab, however, and she'll have to overcome the far outside post position.

Honestly, I have no idea if Glackety will go off at 8-1 (his morning line odds) or 8-5.  

I'll play this HandiGambling very conservatively.

$50 Win-Place - Glackety (#2)

Best of luck to all. 


Blackseabass More than 1 year ago
Mike A, I thought I was being civil if I wasn't than I apologize . I was just trying to preempt any uproar from people that may have construed what I said as an attack on you. I knew you wouldn't. The calculations I offered were for $1 increments and in fact a $200 ex would have dropped that from $434 to $297 and change or $868 to $594 for $2 based on the pool info in the charts. I used to play with the pools at Los Al with wagers I intended to cancel but I don't do that anymore . I almost got stuck with them one time. LOL. I agree with you that the cannon bone thing sounds like something I would pass on myself. I knew you were kidding when you said the thing about the guards. I was laughing so hard I confused it for pasterns. Heck I have trouble telling a fetlock from a tail anyway !! Cannons it is. LOL. Hey, for all you and I know it might be on the mark but I'm with you on the "its not for me." Personally I've never made a 60 G hit. Heck I'm happy to make a third of that in a good year. I'm like you in that I prefer to play individual races rather than P-4s or P-6s. I've never bet more than $700 on a race in my life and over $500 only a few times. I'm no whale, just a little Blackseabass. My comfort zone is $30- $50. If I'm trying to surround a tri maybe a little more than that. Both of my brothers are fine handicappers. They both make bigger bets than I do . They've both hit the pick -6 multiple times. They've both made bigger scores than I ever have. They are probably both winning players although I couldn't say for sure. They're gamblers . Big Losses cancel big winners for them. If they had to play for the rent they couldn't do it IMO. To impulsive, not enough control or caution. To much Cincinatti Kid and not enough Shooter in them. Now , heres some advice, not for Mike ,he doesn't need it as he often emphasizes having self-control at the track. Take it for what its worth from an old coach. I don't remember the last time I left the Track needing to hit the ATM. Sure its happened but not for a long long time. Don't do it. Its bad for the psyche. It will reinforce the idea that you're a loser. If you're having a bad day leave with money in your pocket no matter how much you have in the bank. There is always a fresh set of races . If you are winners $60 don't bet it all in the 9th bet $30 and make sure you're a $30 dollar winner. It will make a difference in the long haul both to your bottom line and to your head. Lecture over, and good luck to all the players this weekend.
blackseabass More than 1 year ago
Curt V, She doesn't do it for me she does it for herself. I just take advantage of it for myself. Yes I saw you were all around it. Better luck next time and that wasn't no accident !!! I told you maidens and cheapies are my bread and butter. Mike A , I forgot to mention that your Uncle sounds like a heck of a guy. I can understand why you loved him and miss him. You were lucky he took such a liking to you when you were a kid. Good luck turfing at Belmont.
p ensign More than 1 year ago
c-town thought the super pool, at approx $8k, was pretty weak until I saw what the double pool was into the hg race...
SirsyFan More than 1 year ago
Mike A, At the Disco is listed with an aluminum pad on - does that affect your thinking? Michael
blackstone More than 1 year ago
Blackseabass If I'm not playing the horses, then I don't believe in posting or reading the Blog. My fundamental belief is that this Blog, in the end, is about picking winners. I've played all of four races in the last two weeks, and will not play any this weekend or next. Can't be helped. As to the Giants, I'm obviously enjoying all of it, but will not pay what they are asking for seats. Stub Hub is showing Lower Boxes at $5,000 per seat, per game. Not in this lifetime. 22 out of 27 ESPN writers picked Texas to win this thing, and, of course, they still might. But I absolutely loved it when I saw that survey-the herd is nearly always wrong. Looks like it will be once again. Good luck to you, especially next weekend!
Dale More than 1 year ago
Looks like I just got my update in time to hit a $13 tri (by my calculations that is a $613.60 payout). I saw a $4 super hit, but that is still a little less. Could I have actually won this in time for some free Breeder's Cup PP's?? Kind of hard to tell with the comments section bouncing around. Thanks again tencent for your work in taking over for Cayman. (speaking of whom, hope all is well with you Cayman). This time next week, I will be on the road to Louisville. Hope to see some formbloggers there. Dale
Curt V. More than 1 year ago
When you decide to explain how it's cheaper for 3 people to fly across the country, versus one person flying across the country.......besides, I already know that I don't have to get hit over the head w/a baseball bat, in order to know that it hurts... Praytell, I am awaiting w/all your convoluted answers......yeah, sure......& BTW: you popped by accident, or omission{see mine}{can U do that?}{then I'll know U understand}...while you were contemplating an all encompassing another{ho-hum list} out in Smelts-ville, some of us were getting our beauty sleep...LOL... Having said this---you collected another Fish-cake...still collection though.........& no ReCaptcha..
Mike a More than 1 year ago
BSB Pasterns?? it's cannon bones. Before I get to that though.....hey I don't care what you say, it's a blog. Just be civil. Yes I was trying to be expedient, though I doubt a 200.00 exacta bet at Belmont would cause the payout to drop from 868.00 to 497.00. I watch the board all the time. Now at Remington like you said a 20.00 exacta bet could drop the payout depending on the pool. I once made a 20.00 win bet on a 20-1 shot at Saratoga harness and he dropped to 5-1......the only shift in the pool was my 20.00. I was making a separate point and to make it I didn't need to be exact. You're right though 60,000.00 is nothing to sneeze at. Now to the cannon bones. Eric this is for you also.........Yes it's kind of a sarcastic remark. Whether it's a proven fact or not I couldn't tell you, but a poster, whose been awol as of late once commented that you could predict how well a maiden would do on the turf by the length of their cannon bones. At least I believe it was maidens....yes had to be because all others already established the fact. Anyway I've been around horses for 41 years, listened to many trainers talk horses, some of whom were very good turf trainers and never heard that. Like I said could be true, but I definitely never heard anyone say they caught that 100.00 winner because his or her cannon bones were just the right size. No matter what Goldilocks says. The way I see it there is already a wealth of useless info out there that does no more than further stymie and confuse most bettors. That piece of info, while "interesting" is useless. I've never measured a cannon bone in my life and watching and comparing entrants cannon bones, is well.....well not for me. Though remember I think observing horses in the walking ring a waste of time. That is opposed to the post parade or watching them warm up. Seeing a horses stride to me is more useful than watching them walk, or noticing how their ears look. My uncle steered me clear of the walking ring......said it was a waste of time. He said "Why watch them walk, you gonna buy one?" He told me he had many friends that were bloodstock agents......all they did was look at horses, check pedigrees and look for conformation and they could pick a winner once in 20 tries......."Lousy average No" he's say. So I stayed away, still do. Van Savant Ok, Skipadate won.....Lubash ran fourth and At The Disco couldn't get the lead and was parked 3w both turns. I said it was a race I wouldn't invest alot in.......just didn't sit right with me. But I'm glad you nailed it.....though that 4-1 disappeared quick enough. Mickey was right there with you. Well actually I had him also, but the wrong two for second. See what happens when I don't really like a race.....I lose. The 5th my key horse Strong Commitment was scratched so no bet there. Good thing, the other two ran terribly........I was surprised Cozy Lion went off at such big odds......tab for next time. Well congrats again. Mike A
blackseabass More than 1 year ago
One final comment on Zenyatta before I get my C-SPAN fix. After glancing at the PP's I noticed that Z has run the fastest Main track 10f on the page in raw time. At least 8 lengths faster than all but Gio Ponti and Dakota Phone of the runners that have traveled the distance. To slow ? I doubt it.
Ned Daly More than 1 year ago
Just saw that the Turn Back the Alarm Handicap is one of the PH races this week.