09/03/2009 1:09PM

HandiGambling 149


Today's HandiGambling 149 exercise is the eighth race from Monmouth, a $32,000 claimer for fillies and mares at 1 1/16 miles on the grass.

Remember that you have a mythical $100 with which to wager on the race, and the entrant with the highest money total will receive a "Monthly Enhanced 60-Card Past Performance Plan."   Anyone going over the $100 limit will be disqualified.  In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference.  Past performances are available on the previous blog entry.

I know that there is a time issue for some of you, but let's remember why we began the HandiGambling races in the first place.  The goal was to share ideas on why we like these horses, and why we're betting them the way we are.  I'm not asking for a novel, but if you could spare a sentence or two outlining your handicapping angles, and thought processes about wagering, it would be appreciated.


#8 TALENTED PRINCESS is a very consistent mare with three wins out of her last four races including a 12-furlong starter handicap on the main track at Philadelphia Park.  She handled weaker on the grass two back at Monmouth, and she overcame a moderate pace scenario that afternoon.  She may get more pace to attack here, and can't be ignored under Joe Bravo. 

#6 IWOMAN has played the role of bridesmaid recently with four straight runner-up finished over the Monmouth weeds.  She's a rather consistent runner, but seems to lack that big pop when it counts the most.  She's a contender with this group, but demand a solid win price before playing Iwoman in that slot.

#3 ZIGGLY was a sharp winner for $20,000 in late July, and takes a confident hike up the ladder for Richard Small.  This mare won four of five starts last year, and her good tactical speed may allow her to get the jump on horses like Talented Princess.

#2 STELLA NOVA looks like an interesting longshot.  She just missed for $25,000 last time out after making a premature midrace bid.  She won three in a row way back in 2007 for Frank Costa, and may finally be rounding back into form.  She looms an exotics threat at a price.

#7 ZUBANI pressed tepid fractions to no avail last time out at Delaware Park, and these seem a bit tougher.  She may find a good spot tracking the speed, and could inherit the lead under Eddie Castro turning for home.

#1 SOUTHERN OAKS looks like the controlling speed from the rail, but she's yet to try the grass.  The dam was a Grade 2 winner on the main track, but this pedigree just doesn't scream grass.

Here's how I'll play it:

$100 Win - #8 - Talented Princess

Best of luck to all.

p ensign More than 1 year ago
learned the hard way last week that the Sacramento Hi-5 is a 50c wager. It paid ridiculously well for a very logical outcome with a small field on Sunday, I believe, and had I not played for a buck I could have hit it. Anyway, a nifty little 12k carryover into the Saturday card - here are the jockeys who participate: A Boag, P Terrero, J Avila, D Sanchez, P Flores, A Rojas, O Figueroa, B Harvey, R Saldana, J Wooten - with basement claiming 3up f&ms going further than any of them want, how much fun is this game?? Good luck to Rachel and Calvin, and congrats to all who hit that p-6 at the Spa - I would have missed the first two but hit the last 4, and I'm glad I didn't bother because I'm sure I wouldn't have played the 4 along with it, and quite frankly 690-1 for that sequence was almost as much of a gift as the p-6, okay, not really. But $88k was a heck of a payday for all who scored.
Aparagon4u More than 1 year ago
Alan I feel your pain. I bet the 5 to win and had a $5 double to him. The only consolation was my brother had a c note on Tobruk to win so at least my loss was someone I knows gain. Plus I have a potential partner for the late pick 4 since he has some extra cash in his pocket. Don't overlook Past the Point tomorrow he ran 2 huge races at Saratoga last year at the distance. I think Rachel Alexandra will win but PtP will be on my backup tickets along with Bullsbay and Macho Again. Lenny
Keith L. More than 1 year ago
I guess I was betting Evita Argentina in the Rancho Bernadino yesterday, not the El Cajon. However, to no avail, as Carlsbad is much to good a sprinter, and Evita got off slow, (again). Does this horse need gate drills? Hello! In todays El Cajon, however, I've got to play some Chocolate Candy and Grazen as a Quinella, and I'll have a sizable PLACE PARLAY play with the two Hollendorfer Candy Rides...Chocolate Candy in the 4th, and 2 yo filly Candy's Promise in the MSW 9th. Both will have Win/Place action separately also.
Laura More than 1 year ago
Thanks everyone for participating in tonight's handicapping chat. It was waayyy smoother than last week, although Hot Girlz still misses Cayman, lol. If you couldn't make it tonight, join in tomorrow night at 9:00 PM EST for more handicapping chat. Dan, when Saratoga closes and you recuperate, we’ll throw a special chat party for you.
Keith L. More than 1 year ago
For the Forego, I like the speed horses as a group, KK, PC, RT, DBS. Of Pyro, Gold Trippi, and Riley Tucker, who have all had the benifit of 5 weeks from last race, only Riley Tucker got the benefit of a true "freshening" for three weeks, before returning to works. The "Vicstu theory" (routers cutting back after a layoff) horse here has to be My Pal Charlie. The 10 post says to me he shouldn't get in much trouble...so I have to give him a shot. I'll play Win/Place on My Pal Charlie, and box with KK and RT for the Exacta and Trifecta. For the Woodward, I'm looking at the fact Da' Tara has been working "lights out" for this run, and Zito, with two in here, will use this one to challenge and press a trying to get free RA early, denying her the rail. There is also too much speed to her outside to allow Borel to "cross over" to the outside to keep her free, and I see the relay runners challenging her, with Its A Bird the first to take over the pressing job from a tiring Da'Tara in the backstretch. You know Borel wants to get the lengths out front going into and thru the final turn, but Rose trys next to duplicate his run with Bullsbay, and moves up on the inside to challenge here in the turn and into the stretch. That will be just enough pressure, I believe, for Cool Coal Man to make a forward move outside from his stalk and pounce position, and that is the final insult. With the finish line in sight, RA imperceptibly begins to shorten her stride as Macho Again (last years Travers hero) gets it in gear and Asiatic Boy and Past the Point run on. The finish? Your guess is as good as mine. My theory is that it will take a 4 yr old to push up his game significantly to a career high to have a chance of taking her down...and of the three four year olds, Macho Again and Cool Coal Man show the most probable capability of improving their game here. And it will take an improvement of "gameness" to do the job. I'll bet Win/Place on both MA and CCM, box those with RA for an Exacta and Trifecta.
Mike A More than 1 year ago
Vicstu, Good Lord son...I'm not going to try an analyse that dream, I'm afraid of where it may take me. One thing everyone has to remember RA is simply faster than these horses. There isn't much need for strategy on Calvin's part. While the other jocks have to be mindful of her, they also have no choice but to ride their horses the way they need to be ridden. At least if they want a shot at winning. If Da'Tara should get the lead, which seems doubtful, then tries to slow things down, all Calvin has to do is let it out a notch and let the jock on Da'Tara decide if he wants to go on with it. The thing that alot of folks don't seem to grasp is RA is faster than these horses. Of course if you want to talk class, horses who are faster in cheaper races won't show the same speed against better, but do you think RA is really out classed here? RA ran a mile in 33 and change against lesser and still finished in 46+. If these older horses run a mile in 35+ that's fast and RA is cruising. You have to ask yourself, in light of what SB did in the Travers, and somehow this race was his next, and RA wasn't entered, would you bet SB. I'm sure many of you would. If you think SB could win what do you think RA's chances are? IF they keep the pace at a 46 half, that is within the older horses comfort zone, RA isn't breaking a sweat, what do you do with her when she starts her run around the far turn? AS I said this is RA's race to lose and unless they bottle her up inside and barring any tragedy all Calvin has to do is show them her tail. Any horse can lose, I've seen it many times, as You pointed out with BB. What happened that day is a mystery, horse came right back to win, my guess is he didn't feel right without his usual steroid shot. Which wasn't administered after all the controversy. My guess of course. AS far as trying to beat her...Well if I had a bankroll I didn't mind losing, as there are many more playable races, or if I was betting small and I just wanted the ego boost that I beat her....you can make a case for a few in here. Of the speed, I think PTP is the best and the closest's to RA. He could literally follow her around the track, if they should get strung out. WHile I expect a better showing from Da'Tara, I just don't see him having the speed to be there at the finish. If he were to win I think Mr. Zito would have alot of explaining to do. It's in the Air I expect an aggressive run from. I think Marty Wolfson is going to use his horse to make RA prove she's the best. NOt sacrifice his horse mind you, but he'll tell Julien to keep him within a length or two in the backstretch and go after her at the far turn. he'll make her run so to speak. With the scenario I see Bullsbay and Macho Again have the best shot, coming later than than others. Either way it will be a fun race to watch. Oh, to the folks who are wondering why I left out Asiatic Boy....He just doesn't seem the horse he was in Dubai, whatever that was. The only shot I give him is if his jock is content to let everyone else go after RA and just hold his position and coast home to pick up the pieces. As Busher showed back in the 40's, a three yr.old filly can beat older male horses if she has class and speed. RA has the class and speed, I tried to beat her once, in the Preakness when she only had three weeks rest, I figured it was my only chance. She's shown she's not tailing off. The only unknown here is Calvin, his confidence could make him make a decision which might get her beat. But as I said earlier....all he need do is let it out a notch. I don't see him as the smartest jock to ever come down the pike, but he's no fool either. If this race had one older horse in the lines of Seattle Slew, who could go 45 and change and stll run a 1:45+ or low 1:46 1 1/8m I'd say she was in trouble, but if any of these older horses ran a 1:47 over anything but a lightning fast strip I'd say it was a miracle. That is except PTP, but his post is a killer in here. I still think he's the second fastest horse in the race, but may get parked out. If not, and he doesn't mind rating?? he could give a very good account of himself. But as I said a nice race to watch. Mike A
tencentcielo More than 1 year ago
With all the great racing across the country, the location of the POTD might be a suprise, especially since its not a turf race. Woodbine Race 8 Grade 3 Seaway S. #8 AMAZING (12-1 ML) There are only two speed horses in this race, her and the #1 Tribal Fire. The #8 is faster, the #1 has repeatedly failed to last when she is the inside horse and the #1 ML 3-1 is a horrible price. Plus there was a noticable speed bias yesterday at woodbine. tencentcielo
Keith L. More than 1 year ago
Vicstu: Quite the Nightmare you described! I too had a dream, but it was about picnicing at the river, and George W. Bush was there, showing us his fishing techniques. He had a pair of waders on, and showed us how he had perfected the ability to "walk on water", "fishtailing" across the surface with ease. Then I woke up. At least you got to watch a race in your dream. But if I look closely enough, I can see a few clues in mine. It takes water in the track for Borel to get the brest out of his horse. (mind you, there was some "natural" water in the Belmont, Pimlico, and Churchill tracks RA ran so well on: something between a fast and wet/fast track I would say in all three). And rather then watching Borel-(George Bush) display their tricks, it would be better to go "fishing" today. The Woodward will be no picnic, for any jock or horse. And RA-Borel will not be "walking" on water today.
Hillbilly More than 1 year ago
One more thing if you don't think these jockeys will race ride Rachel and Calvin. Go back and watch last years Woodward and watch Alan Garcia on Divine Park he crushes Curlin outta the gate and does everyhting in his power to keep him wide early.
Hillbilly More than 1 year ago
"You can't anticapate greatness, you can't even define it I suppose, its something that God every once in awhile sticks in someone, and because it comes from God! the gift can't be ignored, and it can't be defeated and the great athletes use it. Even if their not human." Jerry Izenburg talkin about the immortal Secratariat. First! let me say I hope she dominates, I'd love to see her make Marty Wolson eats some humble pie. Second! Calvin can't depend on her talent he's gonna have to ride a good race stay off the rail its been dead most of the meet. Third! If she can open up on them then do it, grab em by the throat and don't give them any hope.