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Today's HandiGambling 142 exercise is the third race at Belmont Park, a $25,000 maiden claimer for fillies and mares going six furlongs over the inner turf.
Remember that you have a mythical $100 with which to wager on the race, and the entrant with the highest money total will receive a "Monthly Enhanced 60-Card Past Performance Plan." Anyone going over the $100 limit will be disqualified. In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference. Past performances are available on the previous blog entry.
I know that there is a time issue for some of you, but let's remember why we began the HandiGambling races in the first place. The goal was to share ideas on why we like these horses, and why we're betting them the way we are. I'm not asking for a novel, but if you could spare a sentence or two outlining your handicapping angles, and thought processes about wagering, it would be appreciated.
Let's scratch #11 Phone Jazz.
None of these horses will be immortalized in the National Museum of Racing and Hall of Fame in Saratoga Springs, but their heat doesn't look like a bad betting race. I rooted out three contenders that I'll focus my wagers around.
RNB'S BLACKWATEROLL (#9) seems to be slowly improving for high-percentage trainer Scott Lake. Although she finished behind SARAH'S SALLY (#5) in her most recent start, I'm predicting that Rnbs Blackwateroll has a bit more upside than her main rival. Sarah's Sally, after all, is a $100,000 yearling that hasn't panned out, and is now mired in the bottom maiden claiming ranks. I'd like to see a bit more early speed from Rnbs Blackwateroll as there doesn't appear to be much pace in this race, but she may have enough oomph to overcome moderate splits from midpack.
Sarah's Sally has run consistent races, and the feeling is she'll eventually find a field that she can beat. This bunch looks ripe for the picking, and Sarah's Sally shouldn't be discounted. I didn't like that she was a bit late to change leads last time, but this is the third start of the form cycle, and her usual race puts her there.
PATTI TIFF (#3) may be the right longshot stab. Although she's already lost 28 times in her career, she's run some decent numbers, and this field has to qualify as one of the weaker she's ever faced. She doesn't have much speed, and will likely have to rally from far out of it, but a slice of the pie isn't out of the question.
SOUTHERN PRINCESS (#1) ran well in her career debut over yielding going, then tired badly over firm ground in her second start. She's been on the shelf, but takes a big drop in class, and seems to have enough tactical speed to be in good position from the get-go. She wouldn't be a surprise.
DRIVEN WOMAN (#2) has yet to earn a positive Beyer Speed Figure, and has not finished ahead of another horse. 'Nuff said.
PREVIOUS PLEASURE (#4) tries turf for the first time after failing in her debut on dirt. A lightly-raced 4-year-old, Previous Pleasure doesn't have much turf in her pedigree, and may want a bit more ground.
OFFICER FLIRT (#1a) didn't have the easiest trip in her only prior appearance on the turf, and she has never been this cheap. She shows a fast recent workout, and adds depth to the Contessa entry.
PERSKY'S LOVE (#6) is slowly coming around, but her lack of early speed may work to her disadvantage this afternoon.
VERSE OF POETRY (#7) may control the pace under Javier Castellano, and that makes her an interesting win candidate alone. She may have needed her last race - her first of the year - and should be tighter for this assignment.
DR PAULA MOYNAHAN *#8) shows a 15-day gap between her last two workouts, and the $57,000 yearling makes her belated debut for only $25,000. You have to respect this barn with debut runners, but Johannesburg isn't a great first-out sire.
RAFFIE'S PRINCESS (#10) hasn't done much on dirt, and would need to improve dramatically to make her presence felt here.
I'll play it this way:
$34 Win - Rnbs Blackwateroll (#9)
$11 Exacta Box - Patti Tiff, Sarah's Sally, Rnbs Blackwateroll (#3, #5, #9)
Best of luck to all.
ROTD Handigambling School: Katie: why wait until tomorrow, when we have a NY bred turf to play in the feature at Belmont today? 8th Race, 3 yo fillies. I like the William Phipps lightly raced filly here for her breeding, and her Tomlinsons. #7 Luna Charm, a Candy Ride filly out of a Boundary mare has been working solidly at Saratoga, and Phipps sent one down yesterday in the NY bred turf allowance feature that hit at a very nice price. Lezcano rides today. I do like the #8 filly, Doremmfaselatido with some excellent breeding two back on both sides. Her back 2 yo class is impressive, and she goes 3rd off the layoff for Jimmy Jerkins with regular jock Coa riding. Both of the Thomas bush fillys look possible: #2 Onc Golden Dream and #3 Soave: Garcia rides the former, and Desormeaux the latter for confidence here. I think #6 My Magic Moment looks to be off form...sorry, Mr. Albertrani. Not today. Wager: $2o Win/Place/Show on #7 $20 Exacta Box: #7/#8 $ 1 Trifecta: 7,8/2,3/7,8 $ 1 Trifecta: 7,8/7,8/3 $ 1 Super: 3,8/3,8/2,7/2,7 $60/40/4/2/4=$100
Hey guys- Been busy, just catching up,OH GREAT just what DRF needed another BLOG?
I caught all the pimpwalkin references - very funny stuff, folks. smile There have been some excellent posts recently. I applaud the group. Nice story, TonyKelso.
$10.Tri 5 w/ 3,1,9 w/ 3,1,9. $40 exta 5 w/3
Ed, "The point I was trying to make was I often hear people say a Polytrack surface is unpredictable based on the outcome of one race or one card." No serious horseplayer, especially with any knowledge of statistics, would make such a statement based on such little evidence. Then again, a lot of serious horseplayers make assessments about track bias after a few races. The multi-day P6 carryover is mainly due to the fact that Arlington only attracts a few thousand for the first several days. Whacky, Yes, you had a documented winner at Hollywood last night. Congratulations. Your earlier big wins at Woodbine, however, were only posted after the fact. It may seem like I'm being hard on you, but in reality, you set yourself up by claiming to have banked $75K and up over the past several years. That alone is fine by me, but when you mentioned that, my BS-radar went off because that tidbit had absolutely nothing to do with the theme of that particular post. It seemed completely irrelevant. In short, I don't care if you're a pro or not, nor do I care how much you win or lose... but the redboarding is a little over the top, imo.
TO Whackymacky and others who are wondering about exacta prices: Not too long ago someone pointed out to me that there is usually much more $ in the exacta pool than in the win pool, so the exacta pool is a better indication of who the public likes/dislikes. So instead of saying "7th choice over fourth choice should have paid..." and claiming it was an underlay, it may be better to say "the 7th choice in the win pool is actually the 4th choice in the exacta pool" and, therefore, an overlay in the win pool.
C, Let me clarify my comments. Yes, weather conditions affect all tracks, regardless of the surface. The point I was trying to make was I often hear people say a Polytrack surface is unpredictable based on the outcome of one race or one card. They will take a result or results from this past Wednesday at AP (for instance the 4th race won by Maytwooseven who paid $27 to win) and say it is proof that the Poly surface is unpredictable and unplayable. But, in reality, there are a wide variety of factors contributing to the “unpredictability” of the race/card/track (unique weather conditions, quality of the race, public betting patterns, and age of the horses). It should be pointed out that the Maytwooseven win was not that “unpredictable” of an outcome. Our own Stephen Taylor was on the horse and I believe Dan even scored with her by using her over Beautiful Bliss in an exacta saver. Another example I can use is I am sure there are people out there who are saying the fact that the AP P6 has carried over for 11 days is proof that a Poly surface is unpredictable. That is just Chicago-area racing. The same thing happens frequently at Hawthorne (a dirt track), but I do not hear people saying the Hawthorne surface is unpredictable (in those cases it is the weather, the multitude of $4-$5K claiming races, etc.). Also, and I do not mean for this to be a dump on C post (I value your contributions to the blog), but give it a rest with Whackymacky. If he is choosing to make up stories about his wagers, than I really feel for him because he has other problems to worry about. And why should we care? There may have been some miscommunication early on about the wagers he has actually making (the $29K show bet), but I have appreciated the look into his “unique” wagering patterns. Whackymacky, It was good to hear that someone else from the blog scored with the #9 in the 8th at Hollywood yesterday. Keep posting your picks. One last final rant – I am not sure what to think about the $10K BC handicapping tournament. On the one hand, it sounds like the worst idea ever. At least in my “minnow” handicapping circles, we think the $500 AP has set for its tourney this weekend is steep (I think they also have a $2,500 tourney at the end of the meet which is way beyond our means). Thus, a tourney with a $10K buy-in seems bonkers. Now, I understand they are trying to equate it with the WSOP, but I do not think there are many “whales” or professional bettors who would want to lay down that type of money and then be locked into a rigid contest structure. That is why I think they are only going to attract “gamblers” and not very many handicappers. Which brings me to my “on the other hand” point. It all seems like a dumb idea, but I if they get “novice” handicappers instead of “experts,” there could be some more “dead” money in the BC pools. Still, it does not seem like the best way to grow the sport. Midwest Ed
ROTD A.K.A., Mostly non-winners of 3: #3 Soave CHAAZZ
Race of The Day – Belmont, 8th; I think I am going to play this race should I have the time. I am not going to spend $100 real, but I will here; $52 Exacta, 8w/3 $2 Superfecta, 3,8w/3,8w/4,5,6w/4,5,6 $1 Superfecta box, 3,4,5,8
Here goes nothin'-The Arlington Pick Six (and if anyone is getting in don't forget they've got a $1 minimum) Used A's and B's and I've got a thing about not going over $100, but here are my A's and B's 5th: A-5-It's Not Root Beer is 20/1 ML and this is the kind of horse that lets one person take home the whole pot! Won on poly 2 back and has acceptable turf pedigree (286 tomlinson with a 364 tomlinson at the distance) Won here at 1 1/16 and was disqualified on poly. 9-Rimini Rebel is 2nd time turf and needed last race-has every right to improve and will be the chalk. Didn't have a B in this race. 6th-A-3 Tatum Girl (DISCLAIMER, I OWN PART OF THE HORSE) I talked Mike into not running for 10-the 14 we were going to run in didn't go so we went for 18 and were overmatched. Race before that we were bothered on the back stretch and had to completly stop. (Mike objected and after about 5 minutes the results stood) We probably would have been 2nd, and Kristufek in his program comments felt we could have won the race. Gonna get 10/1 or so and she's READY TO GO! 4-It's a Miracle is Catalano and appeared to move too soon last-not sure how much I like the switch from one apprentice to another but she sure looks good here. B-1-Marvalex won at this level 2 back and then was 3rd-could get the best trip. 7th-A-2-Greeley's Angel is obviously over whatever problems kept him out of action last year and eyes 3rd straight win. 3-Tricky Mon is tough in these turf sprints and finished behind St Joes and Eaton's Gift (who beat Benny the Bull at Calder) in his last-should find this spot much more reasonable. B-8-No Fault has been running ok with better. 8th-A-4-Cumonbnimble-ran a nice 3rd in a restricted 100K stakes race and should be tough here. 6-Exploit the Sun makes his 2nd start since returning from NY and was beaten twice by a nose on poly here last year. 9th-A-5-Manecke is the obvious choice-missed by a neck last and this is the level he belongs at. 6-Alone at Last is 15/1 ML and another one of those horses who could make someone a single winner. Last 2 races were 2 turns but the last time he sprinted on grass he was 3rd beaten a little over a length with optional 62K claimers-If he runs back to that race he pops at a price. 10th-A-11-Cool Mountain-deserving 9/5 favorite and since he was a homebred with a stud fee of 7K I'm not gonna worry alot about the drop. He was off 13 months, ran once and was off another 11 months which means it's a pretty safe bet the barn isn't going to lose him and this is his 3rd start of the meet which means his problems may have been corrected (at least as much as they can be) B-1-Leopold Bloom-until last race had been close to the pace-came from out of it last time and while it wasn't a great effort, at 12/1 he could be coming late and "ya never know".