07/08/2009 4:05PM

HandiGambling 141

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Tonight's HandiGambling 141 exercise is the third race at Evangeline Downs, a statebred maiden special weight at six furlongs for fillies and mares.

Remember that you have a mythical $100 with which to wager on the race, and the entrant with the highest money total will receive a "Monthly Enhanced 60-Card Past Performance Plan."   Anyone going over the $100 limit will be disqualified.  In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference.  Past performances are available on the previous blog entry.

I know that there is a time issue for some of you, but let's remember why we began the HandiGambling races in the first place.  The goal was to share ideas on why we like these horses, and why we're betting them the way we are.  I'm not asking for a novel, but if you could spare a sentence or two outlining your handicapping angles, and thought processes about wagering, it would be appreciated.

This is a wide-open race, and I could make a case for most of the entrants.  However, I narrowed my focus down to three contenders.

ALERT ALERT (#3) finished ahead of two next-out winners when only beaten a length in his first start of the year on May 1, and she's been knocking on the door in her two subsequent races.  Last time out, she chased a sharp favored winner in Yare, a filly that came right back to win in allowance company with a 66 Beyer Speed Figure.  She seems to have some tactical speed, and shouldn't be too far off the leaders heading into the turn.

IT'S A ECHO RUNNER (#1) may offer some value at 15-1 on the morning line.  Her lack of early speed may work against her, but she's improved since Lasix was added to the equation.  She owns the best last Beyer Speed Figure, and should be running late at a price. 

MAXINCOMEFREE (#8) hopped at the start two back, then rushed up to make a clear lead turning for home.  She failed to change leads, however, and was nipped at the wire.  She may be on or near the front under her apprentice ride, and fits on form.

As for the rest:

JESTIC LIGHT (#2) isn't a bad stab at all at 10-1 on the morning line.  She's hit the board in her last three appearances, goes out for high-percentage connections, and has a hint of early speed.  She was mired in post position 14 last time out, and should be more prominently-placed from the opening bell this evening.

PAWPAW BOBBYS BABY (#4) hasn't been out since March, but the fields she faced at Fair Grounds may have been tougher than what she'll face tonight.  She doesn't have much speed, and may have to rally into a moderate pace.

CARMEL DOLL (#5) is a half-sister to stakes-winner Bluehard from a solid family.  She shows quick works for her debut, and needn't be the next comng of Hallowed Dreams to win this race.  The first few flashes on the toteboard should tel us more.

QUICK HIT (#6) passed some tired horses in her debut, and should benefit from that experience.  She doesn't show a published workout since her last race, but this trainer knows what he's doing.

LADY REGENT (#7) forced the issue while wide in her debut, and has come back with a pair of improved workouts.  She can improve her, but must make up six lengths on Alert Alert.

MARY'S DEAL (#9) has many angles in her favor as she goes first-time Lasix with a positive rider switch on display.  She ran well in her sloppy track debut, and can't be counted out.

Needless to say, I'm not very confident with my plays, but here we go nonetheless:

$34 Win - Alert Alert (#3)

$11 Exacta Box - It's a Echo Runner, Alert Alert, Maxincomefree (1,3,8)

Best of luck to all

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what, one neck loss giving 10 pounds and they bail on the unknown jockey? not all that sporting, if you ask me.
p ensign

Just for the record, Urban Sea's rider in the Prince of Wales's was Cash Asmussen.

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Dan, will you give us some horses who have recently been given weight over 126 lbs. for a race like Zenyatta was in the Vanity or like Curlin in the '08 Stephen Foster.  I don't know where else to go to find this info.
Captain Bodgit

It just doesn't happen very often anymore.  Other than the two you mentioned, I haven't found many horses competing at over 126 lbs. in major stakes races not named the Fall Highweight Handicap.  The Canadian mare, Monashee, carried 128 lbs. to victory in the City of Edmonton Distaff Handicap at Northlands Park in 2007, and followed up that win with a 130 lb. score in  the Delta Colleen Stakes at Hastings.  True Metropolitan, a top Canaidan handicapper that season, weighed 129 lbs. when finishing second in the Grade 3 Premier Handicap at Hastings.

You can find weight information by perusing the charts and past performances in the American Racing Manual published yearly by DRF.

***

Hey Dan,
I see MAIMONIDES has been working out. Does Baffert have him and when is he returning? Bob's done good since getting horses from Zayat.
tony

Unraced since finishing third in the 2007 Hopeful at Saratoga, Maimonides has bounced around from Bill Mott to Richard Dutrow Jr., and now back to his original trainer, Bob Baffert.  He's been working regularly so it shouldn't be long before we see his name in the entries...if he stays sound enough.

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Talk to you soon.

Dan