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Tonight's HandiGambling 141 exercise is the third race at Evangeline Downs, a statebred maiden special weight at six furlongs for fillies and mares.
Remember that you have a mythical $100 with which to wager on the race, and the entrant with the highest money total will receive a "Monthly Enhanced 60-Card Past Performance Plan." Anyone going over the $100 limit will be disqualified. In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference. Past performances are available on the previous blog entry.
I know that there is a time issue for some of you, but let's remember why we began the HandiGambling races in the first place. The goal was to share ideas on why we like these horses, and why we're betting them the way we are. I'm not asking for a novel, but if you could spare a sentence or two outlining your handicapping angles, and thought processes about wagering, it would be appreciated.
This is a wide-open race, and I could make a case for most of the entrants. However, I narrowed my focus down to three contenders.
ALERT ALERT (#3) finished ahead of two next-out winners when only beaten a length in his first start of the year on May 1, and she's been knocking on the door in her two subsequent races. Last time out, she chased a sharp favored winner in Yare, a filly that came right back to win in allowance company with a 66 Beyer Speed Figure. She seems to have some tactical speed, and shouldn't be too far off the leaders heading into the turn.
IT'S A ECHO RUNNER (#1) may offer some value at 15-1 on the morning line. Her lack of early speed may work against her, but she's improved since Lasix was added to the equation. She owns the best last Beyer Speed Figure, and should be running late at a price.
MAXINCOMEFREE (#8) hopped at the start two back, then rushed up to make a clear lead turning for home. She failed to change leads, however, and was nipped at the wire. She may be on or near the front under her apprentice ride, and fits on form.
As for the rest:
JESTIC LIGHT (#2) isn't a bad stab at all at 10-1 on the morning line. She's hit the board in her last three appearances, goes out for high-percentage connections, and has a hint of early speed. She was mired in post position 14 last time out, and should be more prominently-placed from the opening bell this evening.
PAWPAW BOBBYS BABY (#4) hasn't been out since March, but the fields she faced at Fair Grounds may have been tougher than what she'll face tonight. She doesn't have much speed, and may have to rally into a moderate pace.
CARMEL DOLL (#5) is a half-sister to stakes-winner Bluehard from a solid family. She shows quick works for her debut, and needn't be the next comng of Hallowed Dreams to win this race. The first few flashes on the toteboard should tel us more.
QUICK HIT (#6) passed some tired horses in her debut, and should benefit from that experience. She doesn't show a published workout since her last race, but this trainer knows what he's doing.
LADY REGENT (#7) forced the issue while wide in her debut, and has come back with a pair of improved workouts. She can improve her, but must make up six lengths on Alert Alert.
MARY'S DEAL (#9) has many angles in her favor as she goes first-time Lasix with a positive rider switch on display. She ran well in her sloppy track debut, and can't be counted out.
Needless to say, I'm not very confident with my plays, but here we go nonetheless:
$34 Win - Alert Alert (#3)
$11 Exacta Box - It's a Echo Runner, Alert Alert, Maxincomefree (1,3,8)
Best of luck to all
what, one neck loss giving 10 pounds and they bail on the unknown jockey? not all that sporting, if you ask me.
Just for the record, Urban Sea's rider in the Prince of Wales's was Cash Asmussen.
Dan, will you give us some horses who have recently been given weight over 126 lbs. for a race like Zenyatta was in the Vanity or like Curlin in the '08 Stephen Foster. I don't know where else to go to find this info.
It just doesn't happen very often anymore. Other than the two you mentioned, I haven't found many horses competing at over 126 lbs. in major stakes races not named the Fall Highweight Handicap. The Canadian mare, Monashee, carried 128 lbs. to victory in the City of Edmonton Distaff Handicap at Northlands Park in 2007, and followed up that win with a 130 lb. score in the Delta Colleen Stakes at Hastings. True Metropolitan, a top Canaidan handicapper that season, weighed 129 lbs. when finishing second in the Grade 3 Premier Handicap at Hastings.
You can find weight information by perusing the charts and past performances in the American Racing Manual published yearly by DRF.
I see MAIMONIDES has been working out. Does Baffert have him and when is he returning? Bob's done good since getting horses from Zayat.
Unraced since finishing third in the 2007 Hopeful at Saratoga, Maimonides has bounced around from Bill Mott to Richard Dutrow Jr., and now back to his original trainer, Bob Baffert. He's been working regularly so it shouldn't be long before we see his name in the entries...if he stays sound enough.
Talk to you soon.
Happy Friday all,,, Nice comback for me on Thursday. More to follow. Woodbine Race 1 $100WP #5 $20DB #5 W / ALL Who do you like today??? Chantel is on some live one's today!!!! LOL to all todaY. OUT
Handigambling 141 update **************************** Chaazz does indeed win and Dale re-dons the bridesmaid dress. I never saw chaazz's post. Somehow it got posted on the thread BEFORE the race was announced on. Type Pad at it's best. Congrats to Chaazz and my apologies for missing it.
Terry, Um, looks like you are a day late and a dollar short on LADY REGENT, since the race was on Wednesday. :) Annie
Wow, a lot of interesting stuff on here tonight! Craig, Great post! Long (smile), but very interesting, nontheless. Tinky, Thanks for that update on PIONEER OF THE NILE. That's too bad; I've enjoyed watching his career from the first pictures of him as a baby posted by Zayat's racing manager. Geez, I can't think of his name right now. Midwest Ed, I've enjoyed your race comments! Sorry about the miscue. Wish I could be there for the meetup. TBTA & C, Also enjoying the Lasix discussion. Furosimide is also a blood pressure medication for humans, and now they are starting to have some reservations about prescribing it. Switching to other diuretics. Annie
C, I appreciate your analysis/responses (I say this without sarcasm). Here's my return volley: “Another practical concern of your plan is: where will all the mares come from? I'm assuming you'll hold females to the same standards for breeding purposes.” The mares will come from the same places that the stallions do; indeed the mares must be held to the same standards for breeding purposes, even more so since they are the sole contributors of the mitochondrial DNA. Yes, a stallion can cover many mares per year but the temporary demand for foreign mares should exploit or increase their supply. Some mares could even be surrogates, though I’m sure that there is currently an antiquated rule against such a practice. “I don't think a lot of German breeders are going to be thrilled with the idea of their stallions' offspring filling 6 furlong optional claiming races at Laurel. The European breeders would much rather see their offspring contesting the important Euro Group races at middle and longer distances. I'm not sure how many would sacrifice their stallions' statistics (AWD, %Group winners, etc) for the increased business. In the long-term, they might be doing more harm than good.” This is a straw man argument; the breeders mainly want to get paid. They will be paid handsomely due to the increased demand. A given breeder might be swept away by dreams of a stakes winner at prestigious Churchill, Oak Tree, Saratoga, or Belmont rather than dreading a sprint in Maryland. It is hard to imagine turning back the clock to pre-Lasix and Bute days but in the 70’s and 80’s, I would never have dreamed that smoking would be banned in BARS (not exactly health clubs), restaurants, and other places even though cigs were well-known health hazards to consumers and (less so) to the surrounding people inhaling the fumes. It’s a matter of education of what this medication has done to the breed and the ensuing public pressure/shaming that can turn things around. Ironically, anti-smoking ads are now so arrogant and over-the-top that I want to start smoking, out of spite!
Slew, Arlington Park (and Hawthorne) have carry overs on the P4s they offer. It happens maybe three or four times a meet (more likely at Hawthorne). The early P4 carries into the next early P4; with the late P4 doing the same if it carries. The 3/4 pay off is a consolation payoff with the bulk of the pool going to the carry over. It is an interesting little feature that spices things up a bit. I do not recall when, but I remmber Hawthorne once had one of its P4s carry over a couple days in a row. It was great to have some "whales" from both coasts talking about $5K claimers at Hawthorne. Unless they are playing today, I am sure many of us AP contest players tomorrow are hoping the P4s and P6 will carry over again to really add some spice to the AP card tomorrow. Midwest Ed
I get a list of carryovers from my youbet coverage, and they list of ton of carryovers that include supers and P4s. I didn't realize that these carried over. For example, it lists that there is a 10k P4 carryover in Arlington Park's 2nd race today which starts the P4.. Is that accurate? I thought they just paid 3 of 4? Can someone explain? Point being, there are always carryovers, which are automatically (in a lot of cases) value-laden. I still can't believe all these supers and P4s and P5s carryover?
Cayman (and Dan), As much as i would love to claim the prize (and get rid of that bridesmaid label), the following was posted by Chaazz on the Weekend Beyers blog: Handigambling 141: $1.00 Tri/box: 1-3-6-8-9= $60 $.30 Spr/box: 1-3-6-8-9 = $36 $4.00 to win on # 8 Posted by: CHAAZZ on July 08, 2009 at 09:31 AM. So Dan, I believe Chaazz gets the prize. Chaazz, pick out a good race for us all. Dale
Speaking of Galan Fete, he made my HOI list last November, "a race away from best" is how I catalogued him/her. Unfortunately, there were layoffs and other uncertainties which clouded that picture. Brushed Off is another who made my list about 3 or 4 back ("5/6 cantered and closed on wrong lead, can win in right spot"), but here's a great example of bad connections, and why I no longer put horses with bad (losing) connections on my list. I don't care how good the horse is (brushed off is certainly one of the worst to make my list on "general ability"), you still need someone who knows how to saddle winners. Brushed Off is stretching out today for the 1st time, maybe that will help, at least the company is right. Can't really endorse, though. Could be an "all" race, this is the sort of race (cheap m/c going a distance) that can produce a longshot.
"with all the talk of synthetics being a third surface, how awesome would it be if Belmont turned one of their turf surfaces into a synthetic track. Then they'd have a dirt, turf and synthetic track. Seems like they'd get more entries." You're being sarcastic, right? Belmont has a hard enough time staying on the turf with 2 courses (cheap soil). The last thing this sport needs is more experimental surfaces.