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Tonight's HandiGambling 135 exercise is the seventh race from Woodbine, a non-winners of two lifetime allowance race for Ontario Sired runners.
Remember that you have a mythical $100 with which to wager on the race, and the entrant with the highest money total will receive a "Monthly Enhanced 60-Card Past Performance Plan." Anyone going over the $100 limit will be disqualified. In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference. Past performances are available on the previous blog entry.
I know that there is a time issue for some of you, but let's remember why we began the HandiGambling races in the first place. The goal was to share ideas on why we like these horses, and why we're betting them the way we are. I'm not asking for a novel, but if you could spare a sentence or two outlining your handicapping angles, and thought process about wagering, it would be appreciated.
I found this a very difficult race to handicap. You have several "proven losers" in the field, and both the morning line favorite and second choice are exiting the maiden ranks. I landed on three win contenders and a dangerous colt that I'm going to try and beat (perhaps foolishly).
Mr. Foricos Two U (#8) is a lightly-raced gelding that has really improved with the addition of Lasix. He makes the third start of the form cycle after pairing up Beyer tops, and the quick recent workout allays fears of a bounce. Still, he's a recent maiden winner stepping up in class, and I just don't think those kind of horses are great win plays, especially when trying a new distance for the first time. Mr. Foricos Two U doesn't have to be the next Northern Dancer to win this, however, and obviously deserves respect.
Full of Wisdom (#5) is an interesting longshot. Although a 6-year-old with 21 losses to his name, Full of Wisdom has run some competitive races. He set a pressured pace over a closer-friendly polytrack three starts ago only to fall three-quarters of a length shy at the wire. His first start of the year wasn't very encouraging, but it's possible that the long-winded gelding was simply prepping in that sprint spot.
Cianorte (#3) won his maiden at this distance, then didn't do much sprinting in two subsequent starts against open company. He stretches back out for his second start of the form cycle, and is expected to improve off his most recent race, his first in a little over five months. With several maiden graduates and 1-20 types in the field, Cianorte doesn't look that outclassed despite failing to crack the super in both tries against winners.
I'm going to toss Wildcat Fashion (#7), but that may turn out to be a big mistake. He battled hard on the lead over a closer-friendly surface in his only previous try at this distance before understandably tiring late. Perhaps he was a bit rusty off the layoff last time out, and he can be a forward factor in this spot. I'm just not sure if this distance is ideal for him (son of D'Wildcat may want shorter), and he could face pressure if he wants to go to the front. He can certainly win, but I'm going to try and beat him at 4-1 or less.
Celerity's Summit (#1) earned his diploma in his final start of 2007, and hasn't done much against winners. I wouldn't be surprised if he guns to the front as he stretches out from the rail in his third start of the form cycle, but he figures to face at least token pressure on the lead. He hasn't gained ground from the stretch call to the wire in any of his races against winners, and looks to be in tough once again.
Hi Ho Ciano (#2) won his maiden after chasing swift fractions at six furlongs, and he can be a solid pace factor here. He's not a proven loser, but is untested against winners, and this is his first start around two turns. He isn't the worst stab in the world if the price is right.
One Adam Twelve (#4) is the morning line favorite going out for potent connections, and he seems to have figured out the game with the addition of blinkers. That last race was a big one in his first start of the year, and he must prove himself going long and against winners. He's logical on paper, but may be an underlay, and he does have some questions to answer.
Diplomatic Impact (#6) neded 12 tries to win his maiden, and he'll now try to make it two in a row despite stepping up in class off a solid layoff. I thought the polytrack really favored closers on December 4, and Diplomatic Impact made up twenty lengths to win that day. A good pace works to his favor, and I like to see the five straight five-furlong workouts, but this may be too much to ask off the bench.
September Square (#9) boasts a turf win, and he made up some ground at a huge price sprinting last time out. He has run well in prior second-off-the-layoff appearances, but is 10-0-0-1 on polytrack, and doesn't seem very dependable.
I'll play it like this, but without much confidence:
$16 Exacta Box - Cianorte (#3), Full of Wisdom (#5), Mr. Foricos Two U. (#8) = $96
$4 to get into the Finish Line Bar
ray flack To answer your question: We would quickly lose a lot of money if "mashing" the ALL button was a "betting habit". I know of no responsible handicapper who espouses such a strategy. I do know several very successful strategists (who also happen to handicap) that occasionally recommend a "mashing" of the ALL button. As a regular part of one's strategy, the occasional "mash" may prove quite profitable; especially in multi-race bets built around probable singles (some of us hit the Derby P3 that way). The goal, as far as I see it, is to make money--I already know that I am gambling--and the possibility of a big payoff happens in unlikely ways (see May 2nd).
Midwest Ed, I presume the uber-conservative Sheriffs didn't want to run her on a wet surface. Annie, TejanoRun is right. If I can give an excuse, it's that I've been submerged with work and the Post Auction Project. Ergo, I erred. Readers, An additional mention of the project is as such: http://community.drf.com/formblog/2009/05/handigambling-135.html#comment-6a00d8341c74b953ef01156fb64406970c (Page 1 of this post)
Any Form Bloggers planning to be at Arlington Park this Saturday (5/30)? I will be there and plan to play in the live money handicapping contest. I would love to go over the card with anyone who might be interested. The card looks bleak when compared to the one from last Saturday (there is a sequence of three straight $5K claiming races early on - a far cry from last Saturday's all-stakes P4), but I think there might be some good betting opportunities. We can either set something up via postings on the blog, or I am pretty sure I will attend the handicapping seminar planned for 11:45 am. Is anyone interested? Midwest Ed
DRR please refer to Stephen Taylor's post to Joedracer about namecalling etc. this incident seems to be bringing out, how can I say, not the best in people.
Good morning, all.... Thanks Keith, both for your musical interludes and weekend Stakes picks! Yeah, let's "believe in magic" a la The Lovin' Spoonful. 10C hope you get caught up with your schoolwork, because Cathy will need you to wrap up her epic OLA in time for the summer racing season! Good luck one and all.... Katieattherail
Katieattherail: Just had a chance to look over the Saturday's cards for Hollywood and Belmont, and in the dueling 9th Race Stakes for both, I think Diamond Girl and Goszip Girl could be the chalk: I'm looking for the Magic here: both coming out of the lucky #7 posts, Magical Fantasy on the West Coast, Magical Affair on the East Coast...now that's good Karma for you!
One quick thought on Zenyata. Could the plan to keep her in California through the BC have anything to do with any problems she might have encountered when she did ship to CD in early May? I did not hear about anything bad happening, but it seems plausible that something did and her connections do not want to risk another trip. I am not sure we have all the facts that went into the decision to keep her at home this summer. Midwest Ed
Annie: Are you threatening to bring in Cousin Joe? Is that Keith's cousin that headed up Country Joe and the Fish (as long as we are strolling down music's memory lane!)? Katieattherail and p ensign: Here's another taste of S&C: "Dust on my saddle, mud on my boots, A couple empty saddlebags except for two old suits. I'm tired and I'm hungry, worried as can be Last night I saw a poster, and their still after me."
OMG, Where do I start??? You guys are the best.....Between the hilarious adventures and the lyrics of well loved songs from days gone by, this whole silly saga has been keeping me laughing. It means a lot at a time when my personal life has gotten a bit tough. So, in the spirit of adventure, introduce me to Cousin Joe.
Keith INDY 500 , Helio Castroneves & Danica Partickck are my two favorite race car drivers in that circut. So I was thrilled to see them both finish so well! OLA Contributors, I see that Cathy is doing quite well! LOL! you ALL are doing a great job. SR Vegas