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Today's HandiGambling 132 exercise is the ninth race at Churchill Downs, a $5,000 claimer for three-year-olds and upward at 1 1/16 miles.
Remember that you have a mythical $100 with which to wager on the race, and the entrant with the highest money total will receive a "Monthly Enhanced 60-Card Past Performance Plan." Anyone going over the $100 limit will be disqualified. In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference. Past performances are available on the previous blog entry.
I know that there is a time issue for some of you, but let's remember why we began the HandiGambling races in the first place. The goal was to share ideas on why we like these horses, and why we're betting them the way we are. I'm not asking for a novel, but if you could spare a sentence or two outlining your handicapping angles, and thought process about wagering, it would be appreciated.
The track is currently listed as muddy, and we can scratch #7 PAINTED FOREST. The ninth race boasts a Super Hi-5 carryover of $251,856. Win, place, show, exacta, trifecta, and superfecta wagering are also available.
These races aren't my cup of tea, and the wet racetrack makes it even more inscrutable. I landed on four main contenders.
The last three times #4 JOLLY OL' NICK stepped foot on this racetrack, he's been beaten two heads and a dirty nose. The veteran eight-year-old has run well on wet surfaces in the past, owns good tactical speed, and may work out a nice trip from close to the pace. He hasn't won since Nvember 16, 2007, and has more placings than wins, but may be worth a play at 7-2 odds or greater.
#6 MR. CHAMP makes the important third start of the form cycle with improving Beyer Speed Figures on display. He's never raced over a wet track, but has previously run well at Churchill Downs, and now halves in claiming price. I'm willing to toss the last race at Keeneland as he broke from post 11 in a two-turn event. His previous races are solid, and the gelding has some back class. It's hard to believe, but Mr. Champ placed in the Grade 3 Bill Hartack Memorial at Hawthorne last year.
$5 SHOT GUN CLIFF hasn't raced since conquering this distance in a conditioned claimer at Tampa Bay Downs, but he worked two weeks after that heat, and then nine days after that. He's tactical enough to be placed wherever jockey Corey Lanerie wants, and it can't hurt to play a sharp horse in a spot like this.
After Mine That Bird's shocking score on Saturday, it's hard to dismiss any horse that is ridden by Calvin Borel. #8 Wayfarer beat Jolly Ol' Nick last year at Churchill Downs, and returns from a January layoff with a solid worktab on display. He needs to step it up on the numbers, but shouldn't be dismissed thanks to his good efforts here in 2008.
As for the rest:
#1 SAVIANO may be the main speed as he stretches out in distance, and breaks from the rail. He's run very well over wet surfaces in the past, but really bombed last time out at Indiana Downs, and hasn't reached the winner's enclosure since October 19, 2007. Despite his stamina pedigree, he's a bit of a question mark at this trip.
#2 STEDS PIRATE won the slower division of $5,000 beaten claimers at Turfway Park two back, then was overmatched against $16,000 claimers last time out at Keeneland. He's at his best when on or near the lead, and may not make the front if Saviano breaks well to his inside.
#3 NAFASS can be forgiven his last start as 10 furlongs over polytrack may not be his game. He earned placings in his prior five races, and beat both Jolly Ol' Nick and Wayfarer over a sloppy Churchill trip last year. He switches to the hot-riding Jon Court, and isn't out of this.
#9 CRAIG'S TYLER is 0-26 over fast dirt so his connections must be extremely pleased to see the precipitation. He has a solid late kick, but has been away for a bit, and the it's questionable if he'll get the pace he needs.
#10 MONK was beaten 31 lengths in the mud at River Downs in his first start of this form cycle. He is capable of pushing the pace from the outside under his ten-pound bug rider, but needs a boost in form.
I'll take a shot in this race, but am hardly confident. Here are the plays:
$28 Win - Jolly Ol' Nick (#4) - $28
$3 Trifecta Box - Jolly Ol' Nick, Shot Gun Cliff, Mr. Champ, Wayfarer (#4, #5, #6, #8) - $72
Best of luck to all!
Back to horses, I can not figure out the classes of horse racing. I know Maiden is lowest, Stakes Grade 1 is the highest. What is the order in the middle?
Most handicappers would generally classify races this way (weakest listed first):
Maiden special weight
Conditioned claiming (non-winners of such-and-such races, either lifetime or within a certain time period)
Allowance (from 'n1x' upward to 'n4x')
Grade 3 stakes
Grade 2 stakes
Grade 1 stakes
Nice article on Canonero. Can we get his past performances?
Unfortunately, the past performance database that I utilize doesn't go back that far. Sorry. Adding to the Canonero story, it is interesting to note that he won his debut at two in Venezuela, then shipped to California for two races there. He finished third in an allowance race on September 5, 1970, then ran fifth in the Del Mar Futurity one week later. He returned to Venezuela for the beginning of his three-year-old campaign, winning five of nine starts.
He returned to training at four, and finished second in the Carter Handicap at seven furlongs in his first start of 1972. He only won once that year, but that was a big win as he defeated Riva Ridge by five lengths in the Stymie Handicap at Belmont on September 20.
Talk to you soon,
Maybe if trainers would not be so quick to use illegal drugs by any means possible and force horses to travel at speeds faster then they were meant to tragedys like Rene Douglas would not happen. It is hard enough to control 1000 lbs of natural muscle then to try and control 1000 lbs of muscle that has been increased with Steroids and any and all illicit drugs that these trainers can get there hands on. Maybe if Horse racing would spend more time prosecuting these trainers that cheat and spend as much of the slot money supplementing Drug testing as they due supplementing purses, accidents like the one that Rene Douglas has suffered and breakdowns of horses caused by all the drugs that have been pumped thru there bodies would be few and far between When I first saw Rene go Down I was unsure what happened. I watched the replay and could see that Jockey Theriot had tried to split horses in a very small gap , mainly to avoid a tiring horse on the lead. I can only imagine what he is going through at this time. Having to live with the guilt of knowing that he has ruined the career of a very talented rider in Douglas has to be heart wrenching. I can't help but wonder if Theriot was just unable to control a pumped up race horse and this accident is just another result of drugs in racing. My heart goes out to both Rene Douglas and Jamie Theriot.
OK, Tencentcielo, Since none of your money burners are running in the Preakness, you can have Rachel. Now you know fillies need special attention, so I expect you to treat her right. This should make up for my taking your story and making it into a Hollywood Blockbuster. :) Annie
Dan/Bloggers: Lets suppose for a minute that Mine that Bird wins the Preakness, but then Borel decides to ride Rachel in the Belmont, and she wins. It brings to mind two questions 1. Has the jockey of the Derby and Preakness winner ever ridden a different horse in the Belmont? I don't know but the answer but I would doubt it. 2. Has a jockey ever swept the Triple Crown on multiple horses?
Alan Thanks for responding to my post regarding Scorewithcater and the Sunland Park races...fascinating stuff !!!
FormBloggers, Considering that Mine That Bird was 50-1 in the Kentucky Derby and that it appears that there will be a full field in the Preakness, what do you believe morning and final odds will be on Mine That Bird?
Alan, Are you going to buy Mine That Bird's 2-year-old half brother at the Timonium sale? Annie
Alan, Don't worry about that. I only tested that method against my own clocking (using the, ahem, HoldTheButton game) to see if it were possible for anyone to get a :23 come-home time from the charts or the replay. The answer I come up with is NO. "If C and/or other Formbloggers who have questioned the fundamental validity of Beyers ever needed ammunition to support their argument, this is it!!" Actually, I have no desire to crusade against figures of any kind. I wish DRF provided even MORE numbers (Trakus, Moss pace, dosage, etc) in their regular print editions. Neither of us trust Beyers. You take advantage by using your own figures to identify 'wrong' BSFs and bet accordingly, whereas I probably wouldn't trust my own homemade numbers any more than BSFs, so I just chuck all figs out the window and go with replays. JohnN, The first article you provided (about the horse's spleen) was the best and most logical one. After all, as Dan says, why haven't Sunland shippers been winning stakes across the country all these years? And why do the locals get trounced by the valley horses so often?
Hialeah Likely to Re-open; According to the latest information coming from the Fl State Legislature in it's efforts to find more revenue Hialeah Race Track will be allowed to open for Quarter Horse racing. It will also be allowed to have simulcasting, slots and no limit poker. It will take between $60-$100 million to restore the property. Hialeah was once the Grande Dame of S. Florida horse racing and in my estimation one of the most beautiful tracks in N. America. I doubt it will ever come close to reviving its' glory years: but after a two year period it can apply to run thoroughbreds. I'm sure Calder and Gulfstream would oppose this idea; but if the Breeder's Cup takes notice it would make for an extremely gorgeous site and a wonderful venue to promote horse racing's premier weekend. I shed a tear when it closed. I just hope its' resurrection is not some legislative pie-in-the-sky disaster. bobc
Vicstu, Excellent posts, as usual, but I am wondering how a trainer is supposed to, for instance, try to teach a speedball to rate. Wouldn't it always look like the jockey was holding the horse back? Annie
Lane, How about that! Even if you're relocating clear across the country, there is someone from the Formblog family (Peter Vescovo) that can help ease the transition and hook you up with a way to continue your love of horseracing. And, he probably can also help you overcome your fear of dirt. Lol .................. Peter Vescovo, How nice of you to help out a fellow Formblogger! I'm sure Lane won't be quite so worried about the change. Annie