01/28/2009 2:18PM

HandiGambling 118


Today's HandiGambling 118 exercise is the seventh race at Gulfstream, a 'n1x' allowance at nine-furlongs on the turf.  Past performances are available from the previous blog entry.  Remember that you have a mythical $100 with which to wager on the race, and the entrant with the highest money total will receive a "Monthly Enhanced 60-Card Past Performance Plan."

Let's scratch all of the also-eligibles, and there is an equipment change for #5 Sir Mott.  He'll add blinkers in his first start for Richard Dutrow Jr. 

I don't have a very strong feeling for this race, and it took me a bit of time to whittle down to four contenders.  Solitaire (#2) is the morning line favorite based on his best-last Beyer win, and multiple stakes-placings as a maiden at Woodbine last year.  But the combination of layoff and the whole "facing winners for the first time" makes me leery of him at a short price.  Can he win the whole kit and kaboodle?  Sure.  Do I want to play him to win at underlaid odds?  Nope.  I'll use him in my trifecta wagers.

Plenty Coups (#4) won his turf and route debut in gate-to-wire fashion at the Meadowlands, and may have been compromised by the far outside post in his most recent race.  His figures are competitive, and he shows a series of long workouts in preparation for his first start since the end of October.  His maiden win was basically a theft, however, as Chris Decarlo made an uncontested early lead, and Plenty Coups was a bit late to change leads in the stretch.  Will he make a similar lead with first-time turfer Jack's Eleven (#9) also possible gunning for the front?  At 9-2 or so, he's somewhat attractive to win, but I don't completely trust him.

Nor do I completely trust On Fire (#7).  A nicely-bred son of Pulpit, On Fire has been mired in this condition since the fall of 2007, and his complete lack of early speed usually puts him at a tactical disadvantage.  He finished ahead of three next-out winners in a solid performance three back at Keeneland, and was rallying nicely in the lane in his first start of the meet 25 days ago.  He's in form, has the recency advantage over his main rivals, and should get enough pace to attack.  He may have the best win chance of my four contenders, but he's had his share of chances at this level already.

New Believer (#12) looms an interesting play.  He won his career debut at two in the slower division of six-furlong maiden special weights over the Keeneland polytrack before bombing in two starts on the dirt.  Throw those losses out.  New Believer is not a dirt horse.  He's a synthetic/turf runner that has run a couple of good races on the grass in recent starts.  The lightly-raced gelding has some upside potential, goes out for a red-hot trainer in Wesley Ward, makes the second start following a long, long layoff, and should be charging hard in the stretch along with On Fire.  The outside post is a concern as there's a short run to the first turn, and the rails are all the way out at 84 feet.

I don't really have a strong enough opinion to hammer out a confident win play so I'll play the old trifecta box with my four contenders.

$4 Trifecta Box - Solitaire, Plenty Coups, On Fire, New Believer ($96)

$4 for refreshments

Best of luck to all.


MikeP More than 1 year ago
HG118 $2 Trifecta Box 12,5,10,3 $48 $25 WP 12 $50 $2 EX 12,5
bobc More than 1 year ago
What's more important your heart or your wallet? Would you prefer to be a Steeler fan today who wagered on his team giving 7 points and lost or a Cardinals fan who took the seven points and won? Congratulations to both teams I found the last quarter to be filled with excitement, athleticism and emotion. bobc
garyw More than 1 year ago
bobc More than 1 year ago
CAUTION;; WAY OFF TOPIC Dan, If you don't put this through I understand but feel free to laugh anyway. Warning To all Bloggers: The following is not intended to offend anyone but rather to lighten your day with a laugh. If you do not have a sense of humor or are easily offended by making light of a serious subject please skip the rest of this post. The following statements were taken directly from responses to social services forms asking for "Details about the Father of the applicants child". I cannot verify this to be factual and as I received it as an e-mail I have my suspicions, but I found it humorous none the less and I hope you do to. My favorite is number 11. 1. Regarding the identity of the father of my twins, Bobby was fathered by Mr. McKinley I am unsure as to the identity of the father of Mary, but I believe that she was conceived on the same night. 2. I am unsure, as to the identity of the father of my child as I was being sick out of a window when taken unexpectedly from behind. I can provide you with a list of names of men that I think were at the party if this helps. 3. I do not know the name of the father of my little girl. She was conceived at a party at Main Boulevard where I had sex with a man I met that night. I do remember that the sex was so good that I fainted. If you do manage to track down the father, can you please send me his phone number? Thanks. 4. I don't know the identity of the father of my daughter. He drives a BMW that now has a hole made by my stiletto in one of the door panels. Perhaps you can contact BMW service stations in this area and see if he's had it replaced. 5. I have never had sex with a man. I am still a Virginian. I am awaiting a letter from the Pope confirming that my son's conception was ejaculate and that he is the Saver risen again. 6. I cannot tell you the name of Mark's dad as he informs me that to do so would blow his cover and that would have cataclysmic implications for the economy. I am torn between doing right by you and right by the country. Please advise. 7. I do not know who the father of my child was as they all look the same to me. 8. Billy Bob is the father of child A. If you do catch up with him, can you ask him what he did with my AC/DC CDs? Child B who was also born at the same time... well, I don't have clue. 9. From the dates it seems that my daughter was conceived at Disney World. Maybe it really is the Magic Kingdom . 10. So much about that night is a blur. The only thing that I remember for sure is Delia Smith did a program about eggs earlier in the evening. If I had stayed in and watched more TV rather than going to the party at Miller Ave , mine might have remained unfertilized. 11. I am unsure as to the identity of the father of my baby, after all, like when you eat a can of beans you can't be sure which one made you fart. I believe if we can find humor in the most serious situations we can conquer any problems we face as human who care about each other. Enjoy life, Enjoy hadicapping and Enjoy todays Super Bowl. Go Cardinals!!!. Okay Steeler fans you can criticize me for tha last comment. bobc
robertSD More than 1 year ago
Congrats to all those who had Grey Babe. While I had her in my exotics (on top to boot) I stupidly didn't have any WPS dollars at the very fine price of 9-1 -- so when Strapless held second I got split all around and got nada -- ugh! robertSD
Mark (Tup) More than 1 year ago
Also..an addendum to my previous post. If anyone is keeping turf stats for the allowance level horses at SA and GP (trip notes) I would greatly appreciate any assistance with those two. Unfortunately, I don't have anything to offer in return except my gratitude. Thanks
Mark (Tup) More than 1 year ago
Annie and Joe Instead of being from the other side of the world...I am in Phoenix hence the (TUP). thought the race was on Turs but obviously stand corrected. Did not check the results last week. My picks were obviously not intended to flatter me. Fan of the blog...do not have a ton of time to stay up on the game other than online a bit. Weekend Player. Buy the Form but what other resources do you recommend I look at on limited time. Especially for grass stakes. Thanks
SR Vegas More than 1 year ago
Annie LOL, great minds think alike...Yes, I saw them at the same place (Pletcher's site) when I was looking for Sarah's CHECKLIST...he-he-he SR Vegas
Alan More than 1 year ago
I remain surprised, although perhaps I shouldn't, over the racing community response to Beyer's article. Beyer writes about a suspicious performance in a horse trained by a man with a known history of cheating (including falsifying workouts) and we are offended by the article? The sad truth is that due to the paucity of dedicated horse racing writers in newspapers anymore, only Beyer (who took a buyout himself from the Post several years ago) could write this article. Would the racing community even be having this discussion about that race otherwise?? I doubt it. BTW, the BIGGEST OFFENSE that I saw this past week was not Beyer's article, but Steve Asmussen winning an Eclipse Award! In what other sport is a competitor who has a known history of suspensions for breaking the rules (I know...he says he's been sabotaged every time), including a suspension ruling pending for a medication violation from 2008 in Texas, been allowed to be nominated for an award...and then win the award overwhelmingly (with 187 votes over Frankel with 15 votes)!! Even baseball keeps McGwire out of the HOF and McGwire's use of performance enhancing drugs has never been proven. Pletcher has won multiple Eclipse Awards and he's also been suspended for a med violation. And who can forget Asmussen's star performance on HBO in 2007 representing racing so admirably!! We are a sport with no uniform standards for drug testing, slap the wrists of those who are miraculously caught breaking our rules and then honor our cheaters!!! WHERE IS THE OUTRAGE FOR THAT??? Sometimes I start to wonder if PETA is partially right about us... Updated contest spreadsheet - please check for accuracy (as of last comment 10:38am): http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=p0punDkqmTL6-vxV9onbJbw
SR Vegas More than 1 year ago
Sarah CHECKLIST is at Gulfstream park#7 on Fri. http://www.drf.com/entries/30/eGP30.html#7 and here are the PP's courtesy of the Todd Pletcher website. http://www.drf.com/entries/30/eGP30.html#7 Hope this helps you out! SR Vegas