12/03/2008 12:59PM

HandiGambling 112

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Today's HandiGambling 112 exercise is the seventh race at Aqueduct, a six furlong optional claimer for New York-bred fillies and mares over the inner track.  Past performances can be accessed from Monday's blog entry.  Remember that you have a mythical $100 with which to wager on the race. 

As is par for the course for our HandiGambling exercises, this is a tough, tough race.  The first thing I noticed was the plethora of early speed in the mix.  All About Allison, Instant Lady, and Seasons Wise all have good gate zip while Anita Rosita, Megadeed, and Swept the Series should be close by after the opening two furlongs. 
The possibility of a sub 46 half mile time should aid the closers, and the most likely beneficiary is Rizzi's Twist for high-percentage trainer Bruce Levine.  Rizzi's Twist was a game winner over a pair of next-out victors two back at Belmont, and has been flattered by the recent successes of runner-up Under Serviced (took three of her next four including two statebred stakes races).  Also, the seventh-place finisher from that June 28 race, Karakorum Katie, returned to take a $50,000 stakes race at Finger Lakes. Most recently, Rizzi's Twist finished second in an open allowance race against runaway 104 Beyer winner Loving Vindication (has since returned to finish second twice in open 'n2x' optional claimers for Bobby Frankel).  Sounds like a cinch, right?  Well, supporters of Rizzi's Twist have to ask themselves how they view the recent four-plus month layoff coupled with a $25,000 price tag.  Since Rizzi's Twist doesn't have the blacktype that potential breeders crave, and since she's been a successful claim for these connections (taken for $16,000 in January 2007, earned almost $100,000 in each of the last two years), perhaps the owners won't mind losing her this afternoon.  Still, she doesn't seem like a strong win proposition at short odds.  Her entrymate, Catty Madeline, is an even bigger question mark.  While she seemingly has the right running style for this race, she's never raced on dirt, and fails to show a published workout over the last three weeks. 
Megadeed chased three next-out winners when a tiring ninth on grass in early October, then was sold for $100,000 at the Keeneland November Sale.  She adds blinkers for her new connections, and may wind up in a decent spot in the second flight.  She only shows one published workout since the auction, however.
Although Anita Rosita may get cooked in a hot pace up front, she might be worth the risk at a nice price.  At Saratoga, she was a game winner of her statebred 'n1x' condition.  That day, she set the pace over a closer-friendly track, and re-rallied after being passed in the lane to get up at the wire.  She adds blinkers and a ten-pound apprentice, and should be a good price. 
Sorority Sister looks logical based on her consistent Beyer Speed Figures, strong tactical speed, and a previous win over this surface.  She won three in a row earlier in the year, and should be closing late.  Swept the Series may not have cared for wet conditions last time out, and makes the third start of the form cycle today.  A repeat of the race two back gives her a good chance.  For $25,000, you can take home Waytotheleft, the winner of last year's Broadway Handicap over the inner track.  A $375,000 earner, Waytotheleft will likely make a broodmare for somebody one day.

A tough race to pick apart.  Here's the not-so-confident play:

$16 Exacta Box - Rizzi's Twist Entry - Anita Rosita Entry - Megadeed (1-2-6)

$4 for a Clam Chowder

***

Mulling over some comments and questions for tomorrow.

Good luck!

Dan

Katieattherail More than 1 year ago
Good afternoon, all.... RE: My Charmer H. CRC # 8 Van Savant, nice post. I am using the DRF ROTW as a weekly practice exercise, and in my handicapping of this race, I had to go with Jeux de Danse for its improvement in the new barn, hot jock, improving BSFs and my always-fave J/T combos. I had liked Callwood Dancer in her last big outing, but the recent works didn't impress. Rutherienne has Uncle Steve's voodoo doll working against as well as that losing streak. So let some other horse surprise us both. I want to take a good look at the HTurf Cup at HP later today, and see what jumps out at me. Good luck, all! Katieattherail
Van Savant More than 1 year ago
kevin s; Good luck to you, sir. I did not handicap these races, and therefore cannot provide any specific handicapping thoughts. Others can, perhaps. The only insight that I can confidently offer you is this: Know thyself. You know what your strengths are, and what your weaknesses are. Play to those strengths, and minimize those weaknesses. If you believe in your processes, and your resulting selections, then don't be swayed. Oh, and have fun. If you are having fun, then you must be doing something right. Let us know how it comes out, and again, good luck, sir.
chicago gerry More than 1 year ago
C, Take care of that 102 temperature. You're getting in the danger zone there. Hope you feel better. kevin s., I haven't been able to handicap for today to help you out. Hope you do well and let us know how you did. Someone mentioned awhile back on Dan's formblog Tampa Bay being a deep track. I was wondering if that factor contributed to the success of Big Drama. I absolutely nailed Indy's Windy yesterday with, for me was a sizable investment at Turfway. Saw the trainer switch and and did an investigation on the internet, as best I knew how. I came up with the the exact same scenario as Megadeed in terms of auction and sex and age. I'm still not fully certain about that, but, in my mind it was Megadeed II and I played it that way. Anyway, for me, at the level which I play at, the payoff makes me good for the rest of the winter; fully cognizant that we are sometimes right for the wrong reasons.
Annie More than 1 year ago
Dear Winchester, You probably don't remember (like Chicago Gerry), but last August you cost me $39K in a Pick 6. I wasn't happy. I would really appreciate it if you would win The Hollywood Turf Cup today because I think I have the other five races nailed and since I don't dare leave you off my Pick 6 ticket, I would like to single you. I'm willing to forgive your dismal effort in the BC Turf because, well, it was the BC Turf. However, since you didn't strain yourself in that race, you could manage to be one of those who CAN win their next start after running in the BC. Also, since you stayed here after the race, you have had the chance to work several times on Hollywood's turf. Patrick came all the way from Europe to ride you. That's a long way and alot of money. You wouldn't want to disappoint him, would you? This isn't the greatest field. Champs Elysees is probably the one to fear most. He's not the most consistent horse, but he does love a mile and a half. Don't let him catch you. There's two mares in there too. One stalks and the other closes. They're both brunettes. I know you're young and inexperienced, but you can recognize them by their swaying hips.If they wink at you, ignore them. No no, get that thought out of your mind right now. This is no time to think about that, you have a race to run. You wouldn't want to be teased because you were beaten by a girl, would you? Summer Survivor is like the stable pony. You wouldn't let the stable pony beat you, would you? Church Service is another who will be trying to catch you late. The other three seem either off form or outclassed. So, do we have a deal? Have you ever seen "The Godfather"? Never mind. Just try to do your very best. Love, Annie There, that should do it.
SR Vegas More than 1 year ago
C 106 is good, by my count I had thought 99! ha-ha! he-he-he... I wasn't sure who all has been reading & wanted to make sure I didn't miss anyone. ...so, mucho gracias for being so patient with my multi posts. Es muy bueno mi amigo!!!! SR Vegas
kevin s More than 1 year ago
Good Morning All From a avid reader with the utmost respect for the impressive collection of equine afficiandos here at this blog .......... and an infrequent poster due to work and professional limitations ........I have entered the Handicapping Contest at Keenland today and would appreciate any and all comments, insights and informantion regarding particular races, strategies or a horse you like for the day ......... all early tracks except Beulah (thank goodness).........appreciate any help thanks Kevin
Blue Horseshoe More than 1 year ago
Turn Back, I'm sorry to the extent that my posts have in anyway contributed to your loss of innocence... :) Hopefully cynicism doesn't set in but from your positive energy and tone, this seems unlikely... :)
Lilly More than 1 year ago
Tinky, No big deal, but, I was just generally discussing the "trainer speak" angle. I was in no way making any statement about OF or Jones or that situation. I apologize If I wasn't clear, but, I didn't hold all your comments to being strickly about Jones and OF. Some of your comments seemed more general and all inclusive to me ( trainer speak in general, not just Jones and OF ). Anyway, my example was not intended to be a comparison to Jones and OF.
Van Savant More than 1 year ago
Calder, Race # 8 - My Charmer Handicap, Grade III: This looks like the kind of race that screams to be won by a non-favorite. I know, this seems kooky, but bear-with me here. First of all, I don’t like the losing streak being suffered by RUTHERIENNE, who may go postward at 8/5 or so. She has a case of third-itis over the course of her last five races, and yes, one of those third place finishes was in a Grade III. So with that said, I will take a stab with NEVER RETREAT. She is an improving three year-old who may have awakened in her turf debut last time out. This is also her third race into her current form cycle. She is working smartly toward this race, and her tactical speed should allow her to secure a nice stalking-trip in the garden-spot. WILD PROMISES looks to be the main speed here, and should factor throughout. I will use her in Exacta and Superfecta wagers. RUTHERIENNE is clearly the most accomplished filly in this group, and I will use her as well. CALLWOOD DANCER (IRE) also has good, tactical speed, and will be used in Exacta and Superfecta wagers. Good luck, good people.
Turn Back The Alarm More than 1 year ago
Blue, I never had an evil mind until I started reading this blog....but your scenario about possible fertility issues came to mind, as did the fact that I believe that it was reported that Paulson was the underbidder on Vallenzeri. I may be confusing this with another similar scenario, but I remember being shocked that someone would bid on their own horse. I also remember that bidding was being done through an agent which for many people would obscure the real bidder. Obviously everyone knows who bids for the Maktoums and Coolmore so it wasn't them! hahaha Thanks for taking the time to reply.