05/08/2012 3:10PM

Groupie Doll + Successful Dan = Big Beyers

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I'LL HAVE ANOTHER deservedly received the headlines for his victory in the Kentucky Derby, but a couple of salty older runners made their mark under the Twin Spires as well.

GROUPIE DOLL toyed with a field of quality older filly and mare sprinters in the Humana Distaff.  The daughter of Bowman's Band raced seven furlongs in track record time of 1:20.44 while 7 1/4 lengths to the good of Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Sprint heroine MUSICAL ROMANCE.  It's not like Musical Romance didn't fire, either.  She was 5 1/4 lengths in front of third-place finisher MAGICAL FEELING and was trying hard to the end.  Watching Musical Romance dig deep and not gain ground gave me the same feeling as when Boys At Tosconova ran his heart out to no avail when second-best behind Uncle Mo in the 2010 Breeders' Cup Juvenile. It was the feeling that a good horse was being trounced by a freakish performance.  Groupie Doll received a 112 Beyer Speed Figure and has racked up quite a campaign for trainer "Buff" Bradley.  In five starts this year (2-2 with blinkers), she finished three-quarters of a length behind Boys At Tosconova when trying males, placed third behind the top-class Awesome Maria in the Grade 3 Sabin Stakes at Gulfstream, finished a close third to Musical Romance in the Grade 2 Inside Information and won the Grade 1 Madison in her final prep for the Humana Distaff.  She has proven effective on dirt and polytrack at distances ranging from 6 1/2 furlongs to 1 mile and looks like an early candidate for the Filly and Mare Sprint at Santa Anita.

SUCCESSFUL DAN is simply a loveable warrior.  His career has been derailed on two occasions due to suspensory injuries, but when Successful Dan is feeling his oats, he is one tough racer.  In the Grade 2 Alysheba Stakes, Successful Dan put up a 110 Beyer for his underrated trainer, Charles Lopresti, despite being bumped a bit at the start and being forced to go all-in to run down a razor-sharp FORT LARNED (coming off a track-record performance in his own right). Successful Dan broke the track record for 1 1/16 miles with his clocking of 1:41.04.  Like his celebrated younger half-brother, Wise Dan, Successful Dan is a winner on dirt and synthetic.  Wise Dan also is a graded stakes winner on grass and Lopresti mentioned that he might like to try Successful Dan on the lawn in the near future.  If, and it's a big if considering Successful Dan's injury history, Successful Dan stays healthy, we could have two 'Dans gearing up for the Breeders' Cup.

MORNING LINE may have found a home in Southern California for new trainer John Shirreffs.  The winner of the Grade 1 Carter Handicap last year, Morning Line was sidelined with knee chips after a dismal performance in the 2011 Whitney Handicap.  Making his first start since the Whitney in the Grade 2 Mervyn LeRoy Handicap, Morning Line zipped right to the front en route to a half-length score over the solid PRAYER FOR RELIEF.  The Mervyn LeRoy was Morning Line's first start over a synthetic surface and the versatile colt (wins at distances ranging from seven furlongs to 1 1/8 miles) may provide some new life to the handicap division out west.

He's not Preakness-bound, but LOMAX made an eye-catching debut at Mountaineer Park last week.  Trained by Jeffrey Radosevich, the 3-year-old son of Burning Roma won by 23 1/4 lengths in a six-furlong maiden special weight.  Lomax received a 96 Beyer Speed Figure and appears stakes-bound.  He's a full brother to Roma's Gal, a stakes-placed miler at Calder, and both sire and dam won around two turns. 

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Here are the top 25 WINNING Beyer Speed Figures from last week's races (4/30/12 - 5/6/12):

1.  GROUPIE DOLL - 112 - Humana Distaff (G1) - 7 Furlongs - Churchill Downs
2.  SUCCESSFUL DAN - 110 - Alysheba Stakes (G2) - 1 1/16 Miles - Churchill Downs
3.  EMCEE - 107 - OC 50k/N2X -N - 7 Furlongs - Belmont
4.  MORNING LINE - 106 - Mervyn LeRoy Handicap (G2) - 1 1/16 Miles (Cushion Track) - Hollywood
5.  ADMISSION - 104 -  OC 40k/N1X -N  - 1 1/16 Miles (Cushion Track) - Hollywood
6.  SHACKLEFORD - 103 - Churchill Downs Stakes (G2) - 7 Furlongs - Churchill Downs
7.  LITTLE MIKE - 102 - Woodford Reserve Turf Classic (G1) - 1 1/8 Miles (Turf) - Churchill Downs
8.  CONTESTED - 101 - Eight Belles Stakes (G3) - 7 Furlongs - Churchill Downs
8.  I'LL HAVE ANOTHER - 101 - Kentucky Derby (G1) - 1 1/4 Miles - Churchill Downs
8.  JUSTIN PHILLIP - 101 - OC 75k/N3X -N - 6 Furlongs - Belmont
8.  TAYLOR SAID - 101 - John Longden 6000 Stakes - 6 1/2 Furlongs - Hastings
12. BELIEVE YOU CAN - 100 - Kentucky Oaks (G1) - 1 1/8 Miles - Churchill Downs
12. CASH FOR CLUNKERS - 100 - Heatherten Stakes - 1 1/16 Miles - Belmont
14. GREAT ATTACK - 99 - Twin Spires Turf Sprint - 5 Furlongs (Turf) - Churchill Downs
15. HUNGRY ISLAND - 98 - Churchill Distaff Turf Mile - 1 Mile (Turf) - Churchill Downs
16. ESSENCE HIT MAN - 97 - Vigil Stakes (G3-C) - 7 Furlongs (Polytrack) - Woodbine
16. MACHO MACHO - 97 - OC 75k/N1X -N - 7 Furlongs - Churchill Downs
16. TEDDY'S PROMISE - 97 - Time To Leave Stakes - 5 Furlongs (Cushion Track) - Hollywood
19. BET THE POWER - 96 - Alw 57764N2X - 6 1/2 Furlongs - Churchill
19. LOMAX - 96 - Md Sp Wt 17k - 6 Furlongs - Mountaineer
19. MISSISSIPPI MAN - 96 - Alw 20000s - 5 Furlongs (Turf) - Meadowlands
22. SERUNI - 95 - OC 100k/C -N - 1 Mile (Turf) - Churchill
22. SILVER MAX - 95 - American Turf (G2) - 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - Churchill
24. RENEESGOTZIP - 94 - Alw 57000N2X - 6 1/2 Furlongs (Cushion Track) - Hollywood
24. WINTER MEMORIES - 94 - Beaugay Stakes (G3) - 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - Belmont

*GROUPIE DOLL'S lifetime past performances are available at the bottom of this blog post.

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NOTABLES ON THE WORKTAB (4/30/12 - 5/6/12):

*ALL STAR HEART (Splint right front leg) - 6F (turf, dogs) - 1:15.00H - Hollywood - May 6
*CASUAL TRICK (breathing problems) - 5F - 1:04.01B - Saratoga (training track) - May 5
*EGG DROP (tibia) - 4F - 47.00H - Hollywood -  May 3
*JOHN JOHNY JAK (Colic surgery) - 3F - 35.40H - Hollywood - May 3
*MIDNIGHT INTERLUDE (shockwave therapy, vet's list) - 4F - 48.00H - Santa Anita - May 3
*PACIFIC OCEAN (undisclosed) - 5F - 1:06.65B - Aqueduct - May 5
*PRESIOUS PASSION (Throat surgery) - 6F - 1:15.60BG - Monmouth - May 5
*STARS TO SHINE (condylar fracture) - 4F - 48.40B - Woodbine - May 4
*SURREY STAR (heat in suspensory ligaments right front leg) - 5F - 1:00.80H - Santa Anita - April 30
*TRICKMEISTER (cracked heels in behind) - 6F - 1:13.69B - Aqueduct - May 5
*ZAZU (inflamed shoulder) - 7F - 1:28.60H - Hollywood - May 5

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My wife recently purchased a beautiful thoroughbred that never made it to the races as a pleasure horse. I have never been so amazed-the wonderful temperment, the ease with which he trasformed into a kind and calm soul. I was wondering if you could post the PPs of his sire-Intidab and his dam-Buddy's Dinasha. Thank You
jack_straw21

The past performances are available at the bottom of this blog post.

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Hello Dan,
Would you be able to provide the past performances for Delineator? He was one of the first horses I used to follow when I first got involved in the game @ Bay Meadows. Any thoughts where I can pull some videos of him as well?
Thanks
alex

Delineator's past performances are available at the bottom of this blog post.

***

Congrats to yuwipi for finishing first in last week's HandiGambling exercise.

Penn National Rick's results spreadsheet from last week (due to high volume of entries, winning wagers only) is available at the bottom of this blog post.

Let's go with Friday's seventh race at Hollywood for this week's race. 

REMEMBER, IF YOU ARE DECLARED THE WINNER OF THE HANDIGAMBLING EXERCISE, PLEASE CONTACT FORMBLOG@DRF.COM WITH YOUR DRF LOGIN AND PASSWORD IN ORDER TO ACCESS YOUR PRIZE PACKAGE.

PAST PERFORMANCES ARE AVAILABLE AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS BLOG POST.
 
Remember that you have a mythical $100 with which to wager on the race, and the entrant with the highest money total will receive a "Monthly Enhanced 60-Card Past Performance Plan."
 
Anyone going over the $100 limit will be disqualified.
 
Please post your plays and analysis to the blog. 

PLEASE GIVE YOUR NAME OR BLOG MONIKER AT THE END OF THE HG PLAY AND/OR ANALYSIS.
 
Please separate the play from the analysis and label the play "HG" with the program numbers (instead of the horse's name) for easier scoring.

In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference. One entry per person please.
 
I reserve the right to approve or deny any entries.
 
I know that there is a time issue for some of you, but let's remember why we began the HandiGambling races in the first place. The goal was to share ideas on why we like these horses, and why we're betting them the way we are. I'm not asking for a novel, but if you could spare a sentence or two outlining your handicapping angles, and thought processes about wagering, it would be appreciated.

Best of luck to all.

AttachmentSize
GroupieDoll.pdf58.27 KB
IntidabBuddy'sDinasha.pdf74.08 KB
Delineator.pdf47.58 KB
HG-Derby Revised.xls26.5 KB
HG.PDF150.82 KB
Curtis V Slewster More than 1 year ago
Jeanne, I can't do what I want to do w/this format. So, I'll just try & explain on paper. It'll probably be best if you just print the Ky. Derby Chart & have it in front of you. Or copy this & the chart & make notes. So, I'll give it a go.......... We know the final 1 mile split is 135.0 & the final 1 1/4 time is 201.4 which equals a differential of 201.4 - 135.0=26.4 final 2 F's or last quarter. This is the Key..Everything flows from there. Now you have to be good at addition & subtraction. IHA came from 3 1/2 Lengths back at the mile split when he was in 4th place{you have to add up the lengths behind he was from 1st, 2nd & 3rd} which equals 3/5ths. Subtract 26.4 - .3 = 26.1. That is IHA's final quarter. Bode was the leader in 135.0 & finished 1 or so lenghts behind IHA. So he had to have run slower than IHA. So Bode had to have done 201.4 + 1/5th = somewhere around 27.0..I call it between 26.4 & 27.0. & now Dullakeith..The difference between where he was at the 1 mile split & the finish in terms of lenghts behind is equal to 6 L at the 1 mile split & 1 L at the finish = to 5L{6-1=5} or 1 second..That leaves 26.4 - 1 second=25.4 which is his final quarter. One more..Went the Day Well..The difference in lengths between at the 1 mile split & the finish for him is::11 lengths minus 2 lengths= 9 lenghts or 1.4..So you take the 26.4 & minus off the 1.4 = 25.0 or 25 flat. Which is the fastest come home time for the race. You'll also see Alan had it at 25.11..Well 25.11 in hundreths is still 25.0 Flat in 1/5ths. I know it seems tedious on paper...ButtS: it'll only take you about 40 years of practice & you'll become a wiZZZard at it. Look it takes me about 10 minutes to do the entire chart..& it takes Mikey A. about 10 seconds to do the same..We all aren't in the same league as Mikey, because he practices this in his sleep, however you don't need to worry about keeping your battery charged in your laptop either. OMG..I hope you can understand this...Q's & A's will be accepted........ PS. Now you know why Dullakeith is bypassing the Preakness..Too slow..LoL..He passed tired horses.......WTDW was flying....That's why he's running....... Curtis V Slewster.......Hi Keith...........LoL.........
jack_straw21 More than 1 year ago
Thank you for the PP's.
Yogi Doggy More than 1 year ago
HG $100 Tri 6/4/3 Yogi
Jeanne More than 1 year ago
Curtis I will respond more on this in the HG thread AFTER the race is over. This is so it does not get buried here! Jeanne Curtis V Slewster11 hours ago Jeanne, I'm from the old school..I use 1/5ths..& as you may note I said Bode ran a 26.4 & Dullakeith ran a 25.4...Translation: I have it exactly correct......I have no need to get into hundreths..That's millimeters........LoL......... It's all in the DRF........& actually I'm glad you posted Alan's list, because I did look back for it & got too damned tired searching under this kockamamie format...So, ThanX........... CVS...........
Turnbackthealarm More than 1 year ago
Bernard Downes, Are you trying to fire the first shot in the second American Revolution? :) That is what they call it in the UK, isn't it? All horse racing topics are fair game.
Gerty Golittle More than 1 year ago
Bernard Downes, Are you in agreement with Calvin's picks for the Dante Stakes at York? Have you any other suggestions? I have a small wad available in York, and if the two of you think it advisable, I will place a bet. With a bookie?? knm
You Feel Lucky More than 1 year ago
They might as well skip the Belmont with DULLAKEITH....lol....cause he aint going to win there either.
Curtis V Slewster More than 1 year ago
You have got to be related to the Fisherman..BSB.....That does it !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Curtis V Slewster
Thomas More than 1 year ago
HG BHP: I will go with the obvious horses, #4 & #6, as my key horses, these are the only horses who have beaten winners. I think the 5 and 8 are logical horses underneath HG Wager: $10 Tri PW 4,6/4,6/5,8; $10 Tri PW 4,6/5,8/4,6; $5 Sup PW 4,6/4,6/5,8/5,8. Good luck to everyone Spartan Tom
Anonymous More than 1 year ago
Calvin, Disappointing news about the Derrinstown Trial cutting up quite so badly. Of those that remain, Wrote is priced up at 11/10, Light Heavy is 11/8 and Tower Rock is 6/1. Very early Dante Stakes betting is Bonfire 5/2, Mandaean 7/2, Wrote (again) 5/1, Ernest Hemingway 6/1, Ektihaam 13/2 and Noble Mission 7/1. Bonfire is the main English hope for Epsom. Camelot is the red-hot 5/4 favourite to win another Derby for the Irish. You are right that Mandaean is proving strong in the Epsom betting, but I am worried about Swedish Sailor. Like Akeed Mofeed, he has injury issues and has now missed his last 2 engagements. Swedish Sailor needs to get a run under his belt, sooner rather than later. SR Vegas, I am sorry to report that the Betting Exchanges think that our Chicago is a non-runner at Epsom I haven't seen anything official, but he can now be backed at 999/1, which is tantamount to saying he is out of the race. Our joint betting ventures have not been very successful have they? We must do better next time. Any early thoughts on the Breeders Cup? Best Regards - Bernard Downes P.S. I do hope that nobody objects to all this Epsom Derby talk However, if I was being mischievous I might suggest that we had the Derby rehearsal at Churchill Downs on 5 May, but the real thing will be run at Epsom on 2 June. . .
SR Vegas More than 1 year ago
Bernard Too bad about Chicago ...oh well, onward and upward . I'm hoping to catch Black Caviar on TVG International racing tonight ..I hope. Breeders Cup? ..Well, I did fairly well with picking PGH last year :) We will see, who comes over...it's just to early for me. Here's what Wynns Futures ( 4/30/12) has for the BC Classic and Ladies Classic ( umm, Distaff ) http://www.viewfromvegas.com/uploads/2012_BC_Classic_4-30-Wynn-plus_Ladies.pdf SR Vegas
Anonymous More than 1 year ago
HG BPH 7: I won’t be using these as a top selection: 1-He’s Very Rare will take money due to Bejarano and his 92 dirt BSF. His 2 for 28 trainer makes him an “under only” play. 2-Kessabtsi is the trifecta of incompetence with low % rider, trainer and horse (1 for 22). 7-Tizpat has no Beyer over 63 and 2 for 26 trainer who is 0-13 with turf runners. 8-Warrens Wild Thing is trained by the sad reflection of Jack Van Berg (2 for 62) and is 1 for 29. He continues to get small pieces of the purse while being over raced and working slow. Contenders: 3-The Unusual One has good connections and will take money. Finding a way to avoid the winners circle was his specialty until moving from the low % Abrams barn. Bounce candidate after win with fronts in last. 4-A Toast to You has potential and Gomez. Gomez riding at 13% clip; must be working through his injury. 5-Husband’s Folly has been coming home fast in sprints. 6-A Little Hot Sauce Keeps Rosario after turf win in last with nice closing kick. Trainer @ 2 for 22 does not inspire confidence. I will try A Toast to You as a “projection play” and hope that he remains unbeaten on the sod and never again goes off at the expected high odds in this race. HG BPH WAGER: $50 win $4 $25 Exacta 4 over 3 and 5 JIMPEREGOY