09/16/2014 2:06PM

Giwner: Examining the Little Brown Jug, Jugette

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The best 3-year-old pacers descend on small town America this Wednesday and Thursday for the 44th edition of the Jugette and 69th Little Brown Jug in Delaware, Ohio. The action—on the track and at the windows—makes the pair of mid-week cards must watch and wager events.

Before jumping into the Jugette and Jug elimination races, I thought it worth a mention that the future pool for the Little Brown Jug (including a Jugette/Jug double wager) is available until post time of the first Jugette elimination on Wednesday (best estimate is about 3:00 p.m.). My reason for mentioning is that Lyonssomewhere has taken the bulk of the early action and is listed as a 3-2 proposition as of Tuesday morning. McWicked, one of the more likely favorites is a robust 7/2 and top ranked 3-year-old colt He’s Watching is sitting at a succulent 6-1. These odds will of course change by Wednesday, but there could be value if you are paying attention.

Keep in mind that if you play the future pool you are picking a horse to win the whole shebang, not just the elimination.

Jugette Eliminations

Race 15 – Top Contenders Elim #1 – (2) LADY SHADOW comes in with the question mark of only venturing outside of Ontario-bred competition once in her career and finishing sixth, but she was trapped behind a tired foe that day and did not get clear until the race was basically over. She has early speed and has proven herself fastest of this group. (7) ALSO ENCOURAGING is a tricky read from a handicapping perspective because she drew outside and has been void of high early speed in her career. That said, Casie Coleman trainee can take some air on the rim and would be no surprise. (3) COLOR’S A VIRGIN has been super at Hoosier in Indiana Sire Stakes races; class test.

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The Others: (1) SHELL BELL would need to show a huge improvement just to hit the board. (4) SOUTHWIND SILENCE could have a major say in the outcome due to her early speed; clear exotics player. (5) ALI BLUE has yet to live up to her breeding but was better last time.

Race 16 – Top Contenders Elim #2 – (4) BEACH GAL hasn’t been able to get over the hump in a big race this year but certainly lucked into a good spot on Wednesday. Her chances to win are likely going to boil down to the trip driver Tim Tetrick works out. She gets my timid call. (2) ALLSTAR RATING is a speedy young lady who finds her perfect venue. If she is going to win a major race, the short stretch at Delaware should serve her well. (1) UFFIZI HANOVER has been off the radar since winning the Fan Hanover months ago. I’m not sure that I like her, but I wouldn’t dismiss her completely.

The Others: (3) SOMETHININCREDIBLE needs to get faster in a hurry to compete. (5) FITS WELL was trounced in previous tries versus foes of this caliber. (6) GALLIE BYTHE BEACH is certainly capable of going fast on the lead but has disappointed all year. (7) A LA NOTTE HANOVER might not be fast enough but shouldn’t be a surprise as a trifecta player. (8) SECTIONLINE AQUA shows some miles that warrant exotic consideration but the outside post kills her chances.

Race 17 – Top Contenders Elim #3 – (2) GETTINGREADYTOROLL has been on the top of her game for a while now. She scares me over the smaller track, but the inside post should allow Yannick Gingras to let the speed settle and make one quick move to the front. (6) SANDBETWEENURTOES has only lost once this year, but it was a poor effort in her last start. If she is right, she’ll be a major player. I’ll be watching her in warm-ups. (3) BEAUTIFUL LADY has been racing well over the half at Yonkers and she moves into the Ron Burke barn for the first time, so anything is possible.

The Others: (1) CUT A DEAL has experience over the smaller track but doesn’t look fast enough to win. (4) SOMEISLANDSOMWHERE comes up lacking in both the speed and form departments. (5) CANDY’S A VIRGIN has been doing good work in Indiana. We’ll find out how good she is on Wednesday. (7) BEACH STORY would need a lot of luck to get involved, but if things go her way a trifecta slot is not impossible.

Jugette Day $40K Late Pick 4 Ticket (Races 12-15): 7 / 1,2,5 / 2,4,7 / 2,3,7 = $27 ($1 play)

Little Brown Jug Elims

Race 14 – Top Contenders Elim #1 – (7) LYONSSOMEWHERE has a vicious early turn of speed and carries it further than you might think he will. There is no doubt he will be pointed to the front and I’m thinking the short stretch will save him. (2) WINDS OF CHANGE doesn’t sport a sparkling résumé but has the ability to win this with a top effort. (1) LET’S DRINK ON IT has come up wanting in every major stake he has entered this year. The rail will help, and he has a chance, but at what point do we stop thinking he’ll win a big one?

The Others: (3) THREE OF CLUBS has yet to win in nine starts this year and Thursday seems unlikely to be his day. (4) ON GOLDEN PONDER didn’t get started this year until August. He won here last year and could be an upset player. (5) AT PRESS TIME can step up on his best day but seems a bit off form right now. (6) BEAT THE DRUM needs a few things to go his way for a chance of competing. (8) REDISCOVERY has won 8 of 11 in his career but gets an acid test on Thursday.

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Race 15 – Top Contenders Elim #2 – This is clearly the more difficult division. (6) HE’S WATCHING and driver Tim Tetrick have their work cut out from post six, but the price seems to be right on a horse that has already proven fastest in the division. My fingers are crossed for a second-over trip because he can kick home better than any. (1) MCWICKED is aided by the inside draw but seems likely to have plenty of company from Limelight Beach and possibly Somewhere In L A. He is the one to beat. (5) SOMEWHERE IN L A has been in fine form for some time. If driver Brett Miller leaves and refuses to yield, things could get interesting. (2) LIMELIGHT BEACH has pure early speed and seems likely to make the front. With the pocket typically a bad spot, will Yannick Gingras get uber-aggressive?

The others: (3) AVALANCHE HANOVER has been consistent but needs a monster effort just to hit the board. (4) CAPITAL ACCOUNT has done well on the half, but Thursday’s competition is too tough. (7) SOMETIMES SAID really needed a good post to compete.

Little Brown Jug Day $60K Late Pick 4 Ticket (Races 13-16): 1,4 / 7 / 1,2,5,6 / 1,5,8,9 = $32 ($1 play)

Enjoy the Jug, and be sure to follow me on Twitter @drfharness and on Facebook for updates, photos, and more during the Wednesday and Thursday cards.

 

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Chris Lowe More than 1 year ago
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