- DRF Bets
- Handicapping & PPsThoroughbred Past Performances
ReportsPremium NewsDigital PapersHorsemen's Products
- DRF Classic PDF PPs
- DRF Formulator PPs
- DRF EasyForm PPs
- Daily Racing Program PPs
- Equibase PPs
- TrackMaster PPs
- NewsCategoriesTrack Notes
- DRF TV
- StorePast Performances
- Compare all DRF PPs
- DRF Formulator PPs
- DRF Classic PPs
- DRF EasyForm PPs
- Daily Racing Program PPs
- Expanded Closer Looks
- Equibase & Trackmaster PPs - Thoroughbred
Genuine Risk, Better Than Honour, another Monkey?
While I was perusing the Preakness chat from thoroughbredink, my computer bombed. Mama always told me to save my work, but I never listen. That's what I get for trusting the Commodore 64 that the DRF has me use here at work. Will have to skip Handicapper of the Week awards for now, but want to congratulate everyone that did well. As usual, our FormBlog handicappers acquitted themselves very respectably with their selections.
Oops, forgot to let all you green monkey fans know that his half sister is on the auction block at next week's fasig tipton mid atlantic sales--hip #2, I believe. perhaps all blue boxers should chip in to bid against Michael Tabor...
The Vindication juvenile half-sister to The Green Monkey sold for $27,000, a far cry from the $16 million investment of 2006.
The last race @ Bel. on Sunday was won by Casey's Tribe- a Levine filly (not owned by us). It was about as easy as you can win a race! I joked w/ Bruce that he was the only one who won a race easier than Big Brown! This filly was throttled down to walk in the last 1/16th. The time was nothing special (like 12 & change)--My question is does teh Beyer fig -take into account :How throttled down the winner was?
And my other point about Dutrow:
I would love to see his stats in Grade 1's(including Dubai World Cup Day)- when he has the favorite or maybe pick arbitrary odds of (5-1 or less).
Dan or anyone else out there w/ access to it:
Maybe take into acct. his statistics that are more recent than not so.
Let me know:
Nope. The Beyers take into account the final time combined with the speed of the track (unless the figuremakers are projecting downward). :)
It would be interesting to see if handicappers that follow Beyer Speed Figures add to the number if a horse is geared down, or won "handily," "easily," or "ridden out."
Here are Dutrow's stats in Grade 1 races according to Formulator 4.1:
6-21, (29%, $2.07 ROI) -
DeFrancis (Benny the Bull), Preakness (Big Brown), Kentucky Derby (Big Brown), Florida Derby (Big Brown), Maker's Mark Mile (Kip Deville), Breeders' Cup Mile (Kip Deville)
Last two years:
10-41, (24%, $2.38 ROI) -
Met Mile, Breeders' Cup Sprint (Silver Train), Carter Handicap (Silver Wagon), Coaching Club American Oaks (Wonder Lady Anne L), Kilroe Mile (Kip Deville)
Last three years:
13-57 (23%, $2.34 ROI)
Woodward, Breeders' Cup Classic (Saint Liam)
Last four years:
15-66 (23%, $2.18 ROI)
Donn Handicap (Saint Liam), Ashland (Sis City)
Last five years:
15-71 (21%, $2.03 ROI)
In Grade 1 races in which he was 5-1 or less, his record is 11-31 (35%, $1.90 ROI). With the favorite in Grade 1 races, Dutrow is 9-17 (53%, $2.73 ROI).
Before I forget....
ERDISTON (the horse I gave bloggers who paid $15.40 at Hawthorne) is going again on Memorial Day (mile turf starter allowance) He actually can handle all 3 surfaces so we're guessing it's a pretty easy spot.
DAN- could you send me his last Beyer (along with Beau Jacques) Thanks,
Stephen L. Taylor
Erdiston earned an 87 Beyer on May 2 at Arlington. Beau Jaques received a 71 on May 4.
PS--Whats the general thought about Take riding CD in Belmont. Has Take ridden the Bel main track before?? I'm thinking he must have been there for Breeders Cup sometime or another. Just wondered if CD would be better off with a Belmont based/experienced rider....
Take has never ridden at Belmont.
The Cleveland Plain Dealer is touting Talk of Ekati as pointing to the Ohio Derby. Is this the result of the outdoors guy being the "horse racing" writer for the paper? Or is there really a chance Ekati runs at T-down?
Tale of Ekati was nominated to the Ohio Derby, but the connections have indicated that the Belmont is the intended goal.
Dan; i HAVE A QUESTION FOR YOU. Do you think those new shoes the horse wore made a difference between him and the other colts who wore cheaper shoes? Also maybe there should be a rule in the triple crown that all horses wear the new shoes.
Big Brown has had issues with his feet, and he' s more comfortable in the glue-on shoes than with the more traditional footwear. I don't think the shoes are making him run X amount of lengths faster than his opponents. He's just a pretty good horse.
Has there been a Pyro sighting?
You think Mike Smith had a bad ’99 on the Saratoga turf? Since he came west a few years ago Aaron Gryder has used a telescope to locate the turf Mendoza Line.
Pyro worked five furlongs in 1:04.80 breezing at Churchill Downs on Monday morning. He is being pointed for the Grade 3 Northern Dancer Stakes on the main track at Churchill on June 14.
Gryder is 3-67 on turf in 2008 (4%, $0.69 ROI). In 2007, he was 16-253 (6%, $0.75 ROI) on grass, and in 2006, he was 27-347 (7%, $1.14 ROI).
I also read that on 5/19, Curlin worked in company with a Stonestreet Stable maiden that Asmussen didn't name. The four others who worked 102.8 (like Curlin) were Alina, Ikigai, Terrific Storm, and Vinstar. Any of these sound like a Stonestreet maiden to you? I'm thinking Ikigai for some reason.
Alina is a stakes-winner so I'm guessing she's out. Terrific Storm is trained by Todd Pletcher. Kodiak Kowboy also worked 1:02.80, but he's no maiden. Ikigai worked on May 20 so it's probably not him. That would leave us with Vinstar, a $700,000 yearling by Vindication, owned by Stonestreet. He's a half-brother to Pimlico Special winner Eddington, and raced once last year, finishing sixth (40 Beyer) in a maiden special weight over the Tapeta surface at Presque Isle Downs.
a few questions:
Was Jazil Better than Honour's first foal? And I was wondering if you could somehow get the PP's on Better than Honour too?
Jazil is the third foal from Better Than Honour. Her first foal is Teeming, a daughter of Storm Cat that sold for $1,500,000 as a weanling, and won three of four starts for trainers Josie Carroll and Jerry Hollendorfer.
Her second foal is the unraced A.P. Indy filly, Magnificent Honour. Magnificent Honour sold for $925,000 as a yearling.
Since then, it's been Jazil, Rags to Riches, and Casino Drive.
Here are Better Than Honour's past performances:
Back with more later.
I just read that Casino Drive has a bruised foot. I think and know the horse should not run in tomorrow's Belmont. Why...Just think of a horse running and then disaster strikes. What a travesty for the owner/trainer to even think of not caring "IF" this horse Casino Drive falls, breaks down or winds up spralling into other horses. This could KILL other horses or JOCKEY's if not Casino Drive. Horses should not run with bruised feet or impairments. Too many lives of Jockey's and/or horses at stake. This is what is giving a Horse Race bat news. I hope and pray the track vet dis-allows this horse to run. Very unfair to the other field of horses. Enough said.
Calibob, Its larryK, not lennyK, sorry bout the Slamtthedoor. I bet him too. WP and in the PK4. Thanks for liking the choice. We'll get some more.
Back to business at hand. Anyone playing Belmont $35k carried-over Pick 6? I took the pass on it thinking it is outta my league with some wide open races but intend to play a small late Pick 4, Win and a few exacta bets. Race 6: (3)Sax in the City, (8)Anxiety Race 7: (5)Backseat Rhythm, (6)Madame Brillon Race 8: (5)Diamondrella, (9)Cato Major, (10)Michele The Great Race 9: (10) Scoot On By Any picks/ideas?
Early Pk- 4 @ Bel. R2- 1,3,5 R3- 1,7 R4- 2,8 R5- 5 (Tagg's on fire) Inexpensive Ticket: $12 for very $1 wagered.
Belmont and Big Brown? I'd rate him 9 of 10 likely to win the Belmont. BB only has to beat one horse - Casino Drive. He has the race experience and " total furlongs" over Casino Drive (BB has run 45 furlongs to Casino Drive's 18 furlongs). BB looks to be about 5 lengths faster, maybe more, at 9 furlongs. There is also a little-publicized stat that a horse with no starts at two hasn't won the Belmont in over 100 years. Can Casino Drive's "Belmont Genes" make up the gap at 12 furlongs? Maybe, but CD will probably be 5/2 odds, maybe 2/1. The Japanese racing fans LOVE to bet their own horses. CD certainly won't be value in the win hole. In my opinion, BB's only had one hard race (Florida Derby) and only 5 career starts, so he should be fresh. He can sit second or third and he responds very well to Kent Desourmeaux. Dutrow is deadly with favorites in Gr. 1 races and New York is the trainer's home base. Most speed figure people (let's use Thoro-graph to avoid rustling feathers) report Big Brown is very, very fast. He finishes all of his races. What's not to like? I guess the price, but there will be 10 horses that could run second. The Belmont is probably a great race to play a cold Ex with BB on top, and single BB in a small pick 6 ticket as Belmont Day always has a great card.
MudhoundMojo, You're welcome. While reading your post, I could feel your pain and felt I had to respond. I was a horse-loving little girl myself once upon a time. Annie
This is an interesting article on the Dutrow GR1 winners. Also, it claims he admits to giving his horses Winstrol on a monthly basis. http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/horse/triplecrown08/columns/story?columnist=plonk_jeremy&id=3405495
A thought for Curlin and his connections - If they are interested in running him on the grass later in the year, why not consider the Arlington Million? It is a race in America, at an outstanding turf course, and would still give them time to decide about where to go for the fall. They likely would even have enough time to get in Curlin's usual prep race. Am I missing something about the Arlington Million? It seems like a more logical spot than just going to the Arc in October. What does anybody else think? Ed
Swept Overboard's Met Mile Paid $24.60, $9.20, $6.30 Won by 4 3/4 lengths in 1:33.34 over Aldebaran. Crafty C.T. ran 3rd... In case you were wondering, I have pictures of 3 horses on my office wall. Swept Overboard winning the Met (with the AP copy), Smarty Jones nuzzling his groom before the Belmont, and High Chaparral winning the Epsom Derby. Don't ask me what those pictures have in common, I don't really know myself. :-)
Anybody hear anything on a pick 6- to start in mid -June possibly involving Bel., Del., Pha., & Mth racetracks?? I heard something on the Steve Byk radio show on Sirius yest.-discussing it.