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Frosted fans breathe easier
As the field motored around the far turn in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream on February 21, jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. probably had a big smile on his face.
His mount, FROSTED, had coasted to the lead under virtually no urging. The main competition, UPSTART and ITSAKNOCKOUT, were seemingly off the bridle and merely going up and down.
Ortiz and Frosted were about to punch their ticket to Churchill Downs and the Kentucky Derby.
Frosted simply stopped running.
He went from 100 to 0 in four strides, was inhaled by Upstart, Itsaknockout and FRAMMENTO (!) and finished fourth.
"He looked like he just pulled himself up," a shocked Kiaran McLaughlin told track publicity after the Fountain of Youth. "He shortened stride on his own. We don’t know if it’s from hitting him or not. Irad’s not sure, but we thought we were a winner turning for home. He just pulled himself up when he got to the front. I think the blinkers helped for the most part, but not the last quarter. I don’t know what it was. We’ll have to go back to the drawing board, because he looked like a winner.”
McLaughlin wasn't sure what went wrong that final quarter of a mile, but he sent Frosted in for a throat operation that can keep a horse from displacing his soft palate. The shrewd trainer wasn't sure whether Frosted's breathing was inhibited in the Fountain of Youth, but he was taking no chances.
Going into last Saturday's Grade 1 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct, Frosted's form posed plenty of questions to handicappers. Here was a horse with tremendous potential, but one with a lifetime record of only 6-1-4-0 and plenty of excuses.
In the Grade 2 Remsen last fall, Frosted's first start around two turns, he was mired in a terrible outside post position over a strong rail-favoring track. In his seasonal debut, the Grade 2 Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream on January 24, he ran into a sharp Upstart while perhaps being a bit short of conditioning off the layoff.
It was make or break time for Frosted in the Wood.
Frosted broke from post position four under a new rider, Joel Rosario, and settled near the back of the back while three and four paths off the rail. The early pace was slow as longshot TOASTING MASTER and race favorite DAREDEVIL walked through splits of 24.50 and 49.04.
Entering the final turn, New York-bred TENCENDUR attempted to break things open with a wide sweep to the lead. Following close behind was Frosted, who was moving smoothly under Rosario.
Tencendur reached the front turning for home, but Rosario remained still on Frosted. It appeared that Frosted was moving in a similar fashion as the Fountain of Youth.
The moment of truth arrived at the three-sixteenth pole when Rosario pushed the button. Would Frosted respond?
He certainly did.
Under hands and heels urging, Frosted collared Tencendur and pulled away in the final sixteenth without feeling the sting of Rosario's whip. Frosted completed his last three-eighths in 36.55, ran the final furlong in 12.47, finished the 1 1/8 miles in 1:50.31 and received a career-best 103 Beyer Speed Figure.
Considering he was wide in a race with no pace and that he never was asked with any sense of urgency, it was a very visually impressive performance, an effort that stamps Frosted as a fascinating contender in the Kentucky Derby.
Foaled in Kentucky on April 18, 2012, Frosted is a Darley homebred racing under the blue Godolphin silks. He is by the phenomenal stallion Tapit, who is also represented in 2015 by Grade 1 winners Ring Weekend and Constitution. Tapit is also the sire of champions Stardom Bound, Hansen and Untapable, and Belmont Stakes winner Tonalist.
Tapit won the Wood Memorial in 2004 with a 98 Beyer before finishing ninth in the Kentucky Derby. According to DRF statistics, Tapit has 39 prior performers at the Derby distance of 1 1/4 miles. Seven of them won with an overall record at ten furlongs of 50-7-6-5 (14%).
Frosted's dam, Fast Cookie (by Deputy Minister), grabbed the Grade 2 Cotillion Handicap at 1 1/16 miles with a 96 Beyer Speed Figure. Fast Cookie is a half-sister to Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner Midshipman.
The second dam, Fleet Lady (by Avenue of Flags), took the Grade 2 La Canada Stakes at nine furlongs with a 103 Beyer.
Frosted has excellent tactical speed and that trait should help him greatly considering the expected quick pace in the Derby. He has an acceptable pedigree for 1 1/4 miles and seems to be coming into his own at the right time.
If AMERICAN PHAROAH wins handily in Saturday's Arkansas Derby, Frosted can fly into Louisville under a giant shadow cast by the 2-year-old champion and his stablemate, the undefeated DORTMUND.
Here are the top WINNING Beyer Speed Figures from 3/31/15 - 4/6/15:
1. DORTMUND - 106 - Santa Anita Derby (G1) - 1 1/8 Miles - 4Apr15-8SA
2. TWO WEEKS OFF - 104 - Alw 58335N1X - 7 Furlongs - 4Apr15-5KEE
3. BOWMAN'S BEAST - 103 - OC 40k/N3X -N - 1 Mile - 4Apr15-8PRX
3. FROSTED - 103 - Wood Memorial (G1) - 1 1/8 Miles - 4Apr15-10AQU
5. DADS CAPS - 102 - Carter Handicap (G1) - 7 Furlongs - 4Apr15-11AQU
6. DOCTOR PETER - 100 - OC 62k/N2Y -N - 1 Mile - 4Apr15-6OP
7. KOBE'S BACK - 99 - Commonwealth Stakes (G3) - 7 Furlongs - 4Apr15-7KEE
7. SOMETHING EXTRA - 99 - Shakertown Stakes (G3) - 5 1/2 Furlongs (Turf) - 4Apr15-8KEE
9. CAPTAIN SERIOUS - 98 - Alw 70000NC - 7 Furlongs - 2Apr15-8AQU
9. ENCHANTING LADY - 98 - Santa Paula Stakes - 6 1/2 Furlongs - 5Apr15-5SA
9. GIMME DA LUTE - 98 - Echo Eddie Stakes - 6 1/2 Furlongs - 4Apr15-3SA
9. LUCK WITH A KISS - 98 - Alw 5000s - 6 Furlongs - 3Apr15-4HAW
9. PASS KEY - 98 - OC10k/SAL8k - 6 Furlongs - 3Apr15-5GP
9. RED VINE - 98 - OC 100k/C -N - 1 Mile - 1Apr15-8AQU
9. SYNCHRONOUS - 98 - Alw 25000s - 6 Furlongs - 6Apr15-8PRX
16. TALCO (FR) - 97 - Thunder Road Stakes - 1 Mile (Turf) - 4Apr15-11SA
17. JUBA - 96 - Alw 82000N1X - 7 Furlongs - 4Apr15-6AQU
17. RIVER RUSH - 96 - OC 32k/N3X -N - 1 1/16 Miles - 4Apr15-8PIM
19. CARPE DIEM - 95 - Blue Grass Stakes (G1) - 1 1/8 Miles - 4Apr15-10KEE
19. GRYVON - 95 - OC 25k/N1X -N - 6 Furlongs - 4Apr15-5GP
19. PEPPER CROWN - 95 - Alw 41118NC - 1 Mile (Tapeta) - 5Apr15-4GG
19. STELLAR WIND - 95 - Santa Anita Oaks (G1) - 1 1/16 Miles - 4Apr15-7SA
23. NAGYS PIGGY BANK - 94 - Wcl 8000 - 6 Furlongs - 1Apr15-1HAW
24. AZ RIDGE - 93 - Wildcat Handicap - 1 3/8 Miles (Turf) - 4Apr15-7TUP
24. PRINCESS VIOLET - 93 - Madison Stakes (G1) - 7 Furlongs - 4Apr15-6KEE
24. SHATAK - 93 - OC 62k/C -N - 1 Mile (Turf) - 3Apr15-8GP
24. WISECRACKER - 93 - Md Sp Wt 57k - 1 1/16 Miles - 4Apr15-3KEE
*DORTMUND's lifetime past performances are available at the bottom of this blog post.
Dan - On saturday feb 28 @ gulf race one at a mile on the turf went to Interpol in 134.95
On the same day War Correspondent went the mile on turf in 134.81 Later in the card Lady Lara went the mile turf distance in 134.03 My question is how WC gets a 96 , LL gets a 97 while going .78 faster and the alw winner in race one who was only .14 off WC time did not get a good enough # to be listed Maybe you have some insight as to why ?
thank you peter
The rail settings were different and that affected the Interpol number.
Race 1: Interpol - 1:34.95, 84 Beyer (Rail at 72 feet)
Race 6: War Correspondent - 1:34.81, 96 Beyer (Rail at 0 feet)
Race 10: Lady Lara - 1:34.03, 97 Beyer (Rail at 0 feet)
I kept watching the replays yesterday and when looking at American Pharoah...I compare him to The Factor (2011). In 2011, The Factor blew away the field in the Rebel going to the lead and never looked back. Then, in the Arkansas Derby The Factor was in the 4 post and found himself sitting off the pace leader of JP's Gusto and when making the move began to fade in the final turn for home. Clearly I may be comparing apples to oranges, but when looking at AP's races...this horse found himself on the lead and dictated the race. When Bodemeister ran in the Arkansas Derby the horse was wayyyy on the outside and gunned it out to the lead and again dictated the pace which made it his race. Say AP gets a close to inside post and the speed is on paper...Do you go try to go against AP and beat him or do you believe he is that zensational and is clearly the best horse Baffert has ever trained?
It's a fair question to ask. I'd love to see American Pharoah rate off another horse and finish with the same gusto he shows when enjoying the early lead. I'm not sure it's going to happen in the Arkansas Derby although I wouldn't be surprised if someone attempts to make him run in the opening half-mile or so. Whenever you can poke a hole in a favorite, you owe it to yourself to try and cash in. If you believe that American Pharoah is a one-dimensional speed horse that will fold when challenged for the lead, take a shot against him.
I think he's a better horse than The Factor. I don't know if he's the best horse Baffert ever trained. The past performances will come out later today and I'll get a better feel for the race at that point.
For those of you beginning to come down with a dose of Kentucky Derby fever, I've posted the lifetime past performances of the last 22 winners. Let me know if you find any interesting patterns.
Annie and SR Vegas have compiled a second updated version of "The 2015 MKB Book of Kentucky Derby Prospects." I have attached it to the bottom of this blog post. Enjoy!
You can follow me on Twitter @DRF_DanIllman.
Remember to tune in to DRF LIVE's streaming coverage. I'll be with Matt Bernier recapping, previewing, handicapping and, hopefully, winning.
Here's the schedule:
Wednesday - Friday: 12:30 - 1:30 ET
Saturday: 2:00 ET thru last graded stakes race
Congrats to Rodney for finishing first in the most recent HandiGambling tournament.
Let's go with Saturday's Jenny Wiley Stakes at Keeneland for this week's exercise.
Rick M's scoresheet is available at the bottom of this blog post.
PAST PERFORMANCES ARE AVAILABLE AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS BLOG POST.
SR Vegas and Rick M. have graciously decided to streamline all of the HG rules in order to make them an easier read for everyone...
With so many new people attending Dan's Formblog we thought it would be a good time to update the Handigambling Guidelines and Rules as we go forward in 2014.
Let's remember WHY we began the HandiGambling races in the first place. The goal was to share ideas on why we like these horses and why we're betting them the way we are. We are not asking for a novel but if you could spare a sentence or two outlining your handicapping angles and thought processes about wagering, it would be appreciated.
- Please start your post with HG or HANDIGAMBLING to better recognize and find your entry.
- You have a mythical $100 to wager in whatever format you choose and that is available for that HG race.
Anyone going over the $100 limit will be disqualified.
- Post your WAGER and ANALYSIS to the blog WITH YOUR NAME/OR MONIKER AT THE END OF THE POST. Remember that posts may start as 'anonymous' or an 'alternate name'. You MUST sign yourself at the end (even if it is the same) This enables the scorekeeper to recognize you .
- (1) ONE ENTRY per person for the Handigambling contest. If you have multiple email addresses, use just ONE for contest purposes. Multiple entries will be cause for disqualification.
- Separate your analysis from the wager and use the horses # in your wager. Just like you would do in a real wager. No horse names.
-In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference. Dan reserves the right to approve or deny any entries.
- The winner will receive a "60-Card Quarterly Formulator Past Performance Plan"
As an example :
The speed in this race goes to horses # 1, 4 ,6 ..Ennie , Meenie, and Mo
Since it's a sprint I don't see any closers catching them.. like # 9 Miney.
I think trainer Groucho with the #6 Mo has the best stats in this condition, route to sprint.. just a gut feeling at large odds ML 20-1
50$ Ex box 1-6
A MORE DETAILED ANALYSIS IS ALWAYS APPRECIATED !
REMEMBER, IF YOU ARE DECLARED THE WINNER OF THE HANDIGAMBLING EXERCISE; PLEASE CONTACT FORMBLOG@DRF.COM WITH YOUR DRF LOGIN AND PASSWORD IN ORDER TO ACCESS YOUR PRIZE PACKAGE.
ALSO, IF THE WINNER WOULD LIKE TO SELECT THE FOLLOWING WEEK'S RACE, PLEASE CONTACT FORMBLOG@DRF.COM NO LATER THAN THE FOLLOWING WEDNESDAY MORNING (A FRIDAY RACE IS MOST IDEAL)
|2015 MKB Bio Document 3 31 15.pdf||459.01 KB|
|Copy of Formblog SA Oaks 4-4-15.xls||73.5 KB|
YFL I played Fonner a bunch as a young man, and several times over the years. The last time being last weekend. It was scary looking at the PPs there after mostly playing the major tracks in recent times, but they ran according to form quite well.
Curt V, I always check the formblog community on PH and had noticed your using Dramedy in the Elkhorn. Glad to see you made a nice cash out of it. I know that when I first came here a few years ago I was of the opinion that I was the biggest Seattle Slew fan around. I read for a while before commenting and quickly came to the conclusion that I had better not be trying to out slew the Slewster! Look forward to hearing your take on this year's Derby if you get the time. My track record in the race the last few decades is gruesome but I take my annual shot. I can totally hear what your saying about horses being put on the back burner. The ponies get trivial pretty quick when we're confronted with those we hold dear in crisis. Echoing the thoughts of DavidM9999, cherish the time (and I know you do) with your Mom and Dad. They don't make 'em like that anymore. The best to you.
Off to Pimlico today. I like the Thursday cards as they have been fairly strong as the powers that be see that as a good opportunity to capture some of the simulcast action. A couple that I am looking at. 3rd...The Goldberg runner #12 will probably win....but I will have some dough on the #3 NYE....some of the trainers charges have looked good so far. 5th Broad Moon...maybe...but only for 2nd. I like the Ham Smith runner Black Ice,. 6th Herman's Wildcat is not a PROVEN LOSER... 7th See What Happens....for second. Lets hope for a good day.
Ocala Wrap Up The Candy Ride filly was a RNA at Ocala at $97,000 yesterday. After a light Tuesday at the barn visits and the number of scopes heated up in the last hours pre-sale. Several high profile trainers showed interest. The reserve was set a $99,000 to ensure a decent all in profit. The thinking was this is a nice filly so do not give her away. After all she had been bred to Tapit, War Front, Candy Ride and has a promising sibling. That tells you, if rational, the connection think the filly’s dam had quality. The marketplace in the end said she was not worth $97,000. Marketplaces are normally efficient but can be inefficient at times. I was not there so I don’t know if there were live bids or where they ended. So she will go to Larry Jones barring a private sale. A big part of me wants to race her but a part of me says they were bought for resale for better or worse. I am used to a final outcome in about 72 seconds so this process is new. Like in handicapping there are a few forks in every race or road. We will see where this takes us. Thanks to all who followed along. It helped sharing the experience. Gorder Building on Mike A’s post. Like Steve and Mike this trainer was profitable for me. I am sure other had boarded the Gorder train. He won above average and typically was an overlay when I bet him. He seemed strong with maidens again when I was on him. So I watch this trainer very closely. A meth positive is serious business. I have no idea how the positive occurred but I am sure it was tested in all ways imaginable for confirmation. Several anti-drug horsemen have come out in support of Gorder. This is a natural reaction when an acquaintance or protégé is accused of an offense. “This is simply not the man we knew” is the normal quote. But I just go to the facts “as reported” by credible professionals and the existing rules of the sport. The facts say a horse under his care broke the rules. So there is a big price to pay. If the rules are nonsensical then change them. This is not his first offense though (is it ever?). Needles were found in his barn and he had a positive in 2014. Gorder explained it as an oversight saying he should have discarded them. Do you think? The trainer is noted for his meticulous methods and horsemanship. Well he should have been more careful with the medications and needles. So off he goes to an ever growing sideline of trainers. Where do banned trainers go? OTB, play contests, Caribbean, or another temporary job? He mentioned this will mean a start over. Likely yes with a year plus off barring legal maneuvering since I assume he does not have a trainer/girlfriend to handle things. This suspension should send a warning shot thru the backside with the drug and employees who may be on it. General Anybody playing the Rainbow 6 Saturday? A couple years ago I put $400 in it going 5-6 with a wicked beat in typical DAVIDM9999 style. Last year like all of America was all set but a lone wolf in a brilliant move got the jump on the gambling universe. He took down the whole enchilada the day before the biggest pool racing was ever to see. Unfortunately his story ended prematurely. I start my handicapping today. Count me in the side that thinks this year’s crop of 3 YO’s seems above not below average. I also think some of the bottom 14 of the projected field seem EXCEPTIONALLY common. In basketball an efficient offense demands good spacing. In the 2015 TC preps the spacing has been amazing with one standout in every field. Walkovers after walkover it seemed. That makes it harder to get a true handle on who is superior. Good luck to all in that endeavor. Divine Dawn goes in Miss Preakness stakes in 3 weeks. It should be a good set up on the cut back to 6F. I would love to see her relax then finish. The Beaumont BSF came up soft as I knew it would after an uninspiring race time. DD got a 74 BSF for the GR 2 placing. So if Andy is right she won’t win but if Andy is wrong and Larry is right I cash at odds. Beyer is 2-5 currently in that wager. The connections have taken this race before with a similar path two race path. Her name was Wildcat Bettie B and she aired. I am mulling over whether I go to Baltimore but leaning to a not so comfy Hoosier Park. It has to be a zoo at PIM even if we are well taken of. I don’t like zoos. Curt – sounds like you had a good score. Congrats! I do like to see people beat this game. Treasure every moment you have with your parents. Mine are gone and I miss them every day so much. Steve – good reading as always. Thanks for sharing your amazing perspective.
Bernard, I will add this.....Some has asked one vs another and I will add my 2 cents.... American Pharoah vs Dortmund.....Dortmund hands down Far Right vs Danzig Moon....Danzig Moon...... Horses with no shot at winning.....Keen Ice, Frammneto, Far Right, Upstart, Itsaknockout to name a few. I've had to deal with Frosted....his race in the wood was good and pointing to "troubles" he's had the wood seems all the better......So if I view his Wood as everyone else does I had to view Tencedur the same way.....but here's the rub.....Steve and I bet Tencedur at 29-1.....why? Because we felt with his breeding he was a marginal horse to get the distance, he was improving (again seeing and pp's differ) and honestly we thought other than Frosted it was a poor field at the distance. Tencedur was 3w the entire race and didn't cough the lead till the 1/16th pole.....but that was exactly where Steve and I exected he would start getting leg weary.....so Frosted's sudden "burst" to win looked better than it was......and reality makes me remember why we liked Tencedur int he frst place...improving horse at very good odds against so so horses.....Frosted should have won....and he did, but the fact that he did beating Tencedur who hit the wall at 1 1/16th isn't other wordly......so in his case instead of elevating Tencedur because of how he ran against Frosted, I've taken points away from Frosted for the fact he had to run hard to beat Tencedur.......That's it....I need a shower.....Mike A
Bernard, You know there is one thing I talk about and whether anyone listens or thinks it's worth thinking about I don't know.....maybe, maybe not. Looking at horses I always say you have to look at the horses around them in the strating gate. You don't handicap them as if they are running against past winners.....or history, BUT......you really have to look at what they do individually as a thoroughbred. That's to say what if anything they've done is special as opposed to what others have done in the past...or simply said "What a thoroughbred race horse is capable of physically". So to me International Star has hands down done things that merit my attention. AS Steve mentioned, you can knock his LD win.....but the fact remains he ran much faster late and overal than older stakes horses did that same day....including Moreno, who came back and set the track record for 1 1/8th at Charletown Saturday. I'm a Chatterbox needed almost 2 full seconds to win her filly counterpart to the LD that day.....and I hear she's the "darling" of the south....... The horse is fearless, tenacious and tractable with a style that wins Derby's....This horse has won on Turf.....6f's in 1:09:0....for a horse that they say has no turn of foot I beg to differ. He won on Poly with a pedigree that to this point hasn't done well on the surface.....yet he ran a lights out race at Woodbine. The one thing I always look at is "just how much better or worse is one horse from another in any given field and how will any trouble or good fortune during a race cost them or help them"......When I see a fairly evenly matched field as we see in more than a few this year I'll make decisions by advantage's disadvantages post wise and odds.......So International Star goes in at 15-1 plus......to me given a decent post and nothing that shows me he isn't the same horse I've seen before during the warm ups he's a good bet.....simple enough......I wouln't give a nickle for short prices to do something a horse has never done against a different group with 19 others to deal with....horses like American Pharoah don't interest me.....Dortmund on the other hand looks to be the real deal and I'll include him...as long as he doesn't have the one hole. that's just the gist of it.....as I said I'll post more when they draw. As to Stanford.....I look at reality.....he's bred well, he's bred to run far. He won at 5f's.....He's had trouble, mostly of his own doing. This horse gets a late year respite, comes back and wins a 6f race easily...then what does Pletcher do? He sends him 1 1/8th.....Pletcher knows training a horse to come off of a 6f race and win a 11/8th is hard to do with ay horse...after all this isn't DR. Fager who could set a track record off of a 7f race one week and comeback and run a 1 1/4 in 1:59 and change and even he didn't do it first two back. Pletcher tried it with Quality Road...go from 6.5f's to 1 1/4...I said it wouldn't work then and it didn't......So Stanford's race in that first 1 1/8th race was actually very good.....now some will point to the fact that what I just said makes Materiality look that much better...and it would, except for one thing....My Miss Sophia......look at her PP's, this is Mat's 1/2 sister.....this is what I see when I see Materilaity.....at lower that expected odds I'll bank that's what you'll get. There are certain things about horses you have to know..things the PP's won't tell you....it's like knowing Dramedy was a good bet in the Elkhorn.....like David said on paper he's a no bet....if you know things you see it different. Stanford comes off that race and with more bottom runs lights out at the FG's.....almost wins....and if i like International Star because of the circumstances of that race and what others did that day and since I'd have to view Stanford as a horse who is improving.....so making the decision that it wasn't a downgrade for I. S. To beat Stanford when Materilaity handled him easily that first meeting isn't a stretch....So now Stanford stretches to a distance he should handle....more bottom yet and he's been working well since that L.D. He runs up front, but watching him run I don't believe he needs the lead, Malibu Moons don't tend to be frontrunners and Stanfords early fractions tell me he's not a lead or fade type......unlike Firing Line who could be much like his dad.....like Steve says it's a 50/50 proposition in his case. So at 66-1 is he an include? of course he is unless his post isn't very good, because the one thing I won't lose sight of is even if I like IS I don't believe he is open lengths better than say Dortmund or Carpe Diem.......so P.P. and such matter...and so it matters for Stanford....That's just how I look at it.....Mike A
Here are the post time odds estimates I am using for my Derby assumptions. I could be absolutely wrong but this is where I am making my decisions from: KENTUCKY DERBY POST TIME ODDS ESTIMATE 5/2 Dortmund 7/2 American Pharaoh 5/1 Carpe Diem 7/1 Materiality 8/1 Frosted 10/1 Firing Line 12/1 Upstart 15/1 International Star 15/1 Mubtaahij 20/1 El Kabeir 20/1 War Story 30/1 Stanford 30/1 Danzig Moon 30/1 Tencendur 30/1 Ocho Ocho Ocho 30/1 Bolo 40/1 Itsaknockout 50/1 Mr. Z
I am also looking at the preps for each part of the country, here is the Florida contingent: FLORIDA PREPS: Holy Bull WPS - Upstart, Frosted, Bluegrass Singer 1:43.61 (Track Record is 1:40.97) Also rans (Frammento, Keen Ice) Tampa Bay Derby WPS - Carpe Diem, Ami's Flatter, Divining Rod 1:43.60 (Track Record is 1:42.83) Also rans (Danzig Moon, Ocean Knight) Fountain of Youth WPS - Upstart (DQ), Itsaknockout, Frammento 1:46.28 (Track Record is 1:40.97) Also rans (Frosted, Blue Grass Singer) Florida Derby WPS - Materiality, Upstart, Ami's Flatter 1:52.30 (Track Record is 1:46.86) Also rans (Itsaknockout) So what do the Florida preps tell us? First they were not particularly fast races with the exception of Carpe Diem's Tampa Bay Derby run. In fact the times for the Gulfstream races are dismal. What does that say about these colts? Frosted was beaten twice in the Holy Bull and the Fountain of Youth but came back and won the Wood Memorial in a really slow time. Upstart won two but was DQd in the FOY and was handled pretty easily by Materiality in the Florida Derby. Florida Rankings: 1. Carpe Diem 2. Materiality 3. Upstart 4. Frosted 5. Itsaknockout
MATERIALITY (Afleet Alex x Wildwood Flower, Langfuhr) An interesting type to be sure, he has the distance chops through his sire and has speed (ran a 1:10/2 in his debut); pretty unusual for an Afleet Alex. He has a kamikaze running style and lays it out there every time - which to me is the problem, I think this horse was seriously on his belly in his last race and I am very cautious betting this next out (although his post race works are vey good).This colt only has three races lifetime; yes they are all wins, but this is a tall order for an inexperienced colt to be racing against 19 others in a 10F race. This is one I am taking a stand against but not because of the distance - I can't get over his last race, the overall lack of competition and the inexperience. GRADE: A- UPSTART (Flatter x Party Silks, Touch Gold) Colt has one win in three tries as a sophomore, and the competition was less than stellar in his preps. Yes he had a pretty dubious DQ in the Fountain of Youth but his times are pretty uninspiring and these are much better than he has ever faced. He has never missed the board (7-3-3-1) but that will change. He does marginally have the pedigree to get 10F but Flatter has proven to be a better sprint sire who does get an occasional distance runner. Just having trouble with the whole Florida prepped runners, they just appear to be a cut below the other contingents around the country. GRADE: C MUBTAAHIJ (Dubawi x Pennegale, Pennecamp) A pretty typical Euro turf breeding, he was the last one standing at the UAE Derby; winning in a slow time in an uninspiring race against dirt wannabes. He is half to GR-1 winner Lilly of the Valley so there are some family genes here... The problem is that they are really turf genes and this is not a group of colts that you fool around with. Doesn't have a lot of tactical speed and think he is just lost in the sauce here. He does have a pedigree that supports the distance but he just isn't fast enough. GRADE: B FROSTED (Tapit x Fast Cookie, Deputy Minister) The Deputy Minister line says that 10F is doable, but in what time? Having trouble digesting his runs - is he the horse we saw in Florida or the one at Aqueduct? He has raced against some very weak fields and did beat Tencendur last out in the Wood but that ain't saying much. This is a good, serviceable colt; but not a world beater. Taking a pass. GRADE: C
Ran across this: Since 1993, non-stakes winners in Derby are 75-1-6-3.There will be several: DANZIG MOON WAR STORY TENCENDUR STANFORD MR. Z MADEFROMLUCKY KEEN ICE FRAMMENTO BOLD CONQUEST And technically, ITSAKNOCKOUT, who didn't actually win the stakes. Annie