05/16/2008 11:31AM

Friday stakes opinions, par times, etc

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So, 10 of 26 dirt races were won by offspring of Outstanding Polysires according to your list (and of course, I'm sure there were races that had no offspring of outstanding sires. (Dan-if you send me the charts for the first 3 dates, I'll see how the sires did on those days)
Stephen L. Taylor

Here are the charts for the first three days of the Arlington meet.  Keep me informed how the "Outstanding Polysires" are doing:


Dan,
Can you provide the Beyer pars for the following Pimlico stakes races:
Friday
R9 Woodlawn
R11 The Very One
Saturday
R5 Skipat
R7 Barbaro
R8 Old Mutual Turf Sprint (formerly Baltimore Turf Sprint?)
Lenny

Download ArlingtonMay2.pdf

Download ArlingtonMay3.pdf

Download ArlingtonMay4.pdf

Here's what I could find.  Hope it helps.

Woodlawn (one mile turf)
2007 - Rebel Yeller - 72
2006 - Rock Lobster - 81 (run at 1 1/16 miles on turf)
2005 - English Channel - 90 (run at 1 1/16 miles on turf)
2004 - Artie Schiller - 89 (run at 1 1/16 miles in turf)
2003 - Gang - 79 (run at 1 1/16 miles on dirt)
2002 - Mr. O'Brien - 94 (run at 1 1/16 miles on turf)
2001 - Unaccountedlea - 89 (run at 1 1/16 miles on turf)
2000 - Blaze and Blues - 93 (run at 1 1/16 miles on turf)

The Very One (five furlongs turf)
2007 - Unbridled Sidney - 99
2006 - Gilded Gold - 100
2005 - Gabianna - 81
2004 - Go Go Baby Go - 91
2003 - Forest Heiress - 101 (run at five furlongs on dirt)
2002 - Merry Princess - 92
2001 - Confessional - 95

Skipat (six furlongs dirt)
2007 - Silmaril - 92
2006 - Trickle of Gold - 106
2005 - Spring Rush - 94
2004 - Love You Madly - 80
2003 - Bronze Abe - 88
2002 - Madame Roar - 96
2001 - Big Bambu - 100
2000 - Lily's Affair - 96

Barbaro (1 1/16 miles dirt)
2007 - Chelokee - 95
2006 - High Cotton - 103 (run as the Sir Barton)
2005 - Pinpoint - 87 (run as the Sir Barton)
2004 - Royal Assault - 88 (run as the Sir Barton)
2003 - Best Minister - 99 (run as the Sir Barton)
2002 - Sarava - 99 (run as the Sir Barton)
2001 - Burning Roma - 95 (run as the Sir Barton)
2000 - Broken Vow - 100 (run as Sir Barton Stakes)

Old Mutual Turf Sprint (five furlongs turf)
2007 - Heros Reward - 95 (run as Baltimore City Turf Sprint)
2006 - My Lord - 97 (run as Baltimore Breeders' Cup Sprint)
2005 - Tacirring - 97 (run as Ben Cohen Stakes)
2004 - Governor's Pride - 94 (run as Ben Cohen Stakes)
2003 - Native Heir - 103 (run as Ben Cohen Stakes)
2002 - Splendeed - 94 (run as Ben Cohen Stakes)
2001 - Just Call Me Carl - 99 (run as Ben Cohen Stakes)


Hey Dan,On the subject of recordkeeping: Any tips?

I've always kept a handicapper's diary where I reflect on the day's action. A lot of times, I'll write out what I was thinking, and exclaim, "what the heck was I thinking?"I think a written diary helps handicappers better figure out what they did right and wrong on that day.Of course, that's a bit time-consuming.For brevity's sake, I would simply create a spreadsheet with different class levels (mdn., clm., alw., stk.) or surfaces (dirt, turf, synthetic), and mark down your results (wins, in the money, profit/loss).In time, you'll probably see some patterns. Maybe you excel in maiden claiming sprints, and didn't even know it.

Hey Dan,A lot of people are throwing lots of kudos at Evening Attire for running hard at age ten. But being an older New York horseplayer I would love to get a look at King's Swan's lifetime pp's. Talk about a horse running his eyeballs out. I believe he won at the ripe old age of 13!
Nick Briglia

Nick, you're bringing up some painful memories as King's Swan taught me a valuable lesson many years ago.It was November 12, 1990, and I absolutely loved Joker's Farce in the feature race at Aqueduct.Of course, he had to beat King's Swan, no easy task to be sure.But the King was getting a little long in the tooth, and took lots of sentimental money. I unloaded on Joker's Farce as much as a sixteen year old could "unload" at the betting windows, and Joker's Farce seemingly put away King's Swan at the eighth pole. I turned around with a look of smug satisfaction on my face, and began to walk to the windows. Why wait on line when I could get my money first? Then, I heard it. It started with some mild applause followed by a tsunami of noise. It could only mean one thing.The King was coming back on the rail! King's Swan looked Joker's Farce in the eye, summoned all of his class, and broke Joker's Farce's back with a tenacious re-rally. The King and Cordero got back up to win by a nose.
What was it that Yogi said  "It ain't over 'til it's over."

Download kings_swan.pdf

***

Dan,Can you print the PP's for Badge of Silver. Trying to convince a friend he will be a nice sire for the price. He was precocious, could carry his speed to 9F and didn't do too bad the 2 times he tried turf either. Your opinion?
Jim Tully


Badge of Silver had supreme speed as well as the stamina to stretch that speed to nine furlongs on both dirt and turf.Unfortunately, he was as brittle as he was brilliant, suffering from quarter cracks and other assorted foot problems throughout his career. He's an interesting stallion prospect and should be a nice cross to Mr. Prospector (back three generations in Badge of Silver's pedigree) and Northern Dancer (fourth generation) mares.

Download badge_of_silver.pdf


Take care,

Dan


Take care,

Dan

David W More than 1 year ago
preakness picks exactas 7 over 3,4,6,8,12 tris 7 over 4,6,8,12 over 3,4,6,8,10,12 super 7 over 4,6,8,12 over3,4,6,8,10,12 over 3,4,6,8,10,12 hopfully break even
CaliBob More than 1 year ago
A note to everyone: Paul Malecki, who in my opinion is easily the best handicapper at the DRF, has been given the analysis page for Pimlico on Preakness Day. You can't go wrong taking Paul's picks into your own handicapping as a central component. Its great to see him receive this honor. I'm sure I'm not the only horseplayer that consults Paul's picks as their own little secret, afterall what capper worth his salt admits to looking at touts! But I admit it... Congratulations Paul!
Lawduck07 More than 1 year ago
Hey Alan, just out of curiousity do you have any concerns with Racecar Rhapsody as far as distance limitations? Just wondering b/c I remember you having concerns about TOE in the Derby and they're both Tale of the Cats. (I also remember you making some funny comment about liking your stamina on top!) Really just curious. Not trying to be rude or anything. I kind of like him to in the Preakness.
Steve T More than 1 year ago
We have lift-off on Magnificience, she is entered in the 3rd on Sunday in an Allowance. wildcat@wirelessmail.us
tony More than 1 year ago
maren's meadow in the black eyed susan....she's developing into a nice filly behindatthebar in a preakness upset
kchrisjones More than 1 year ago
Dan, My all-stakes pick-4 is as follows: - Woodlawn: (Race 9): Since I am expecting good-to-yielding turf, Mott will probably scratch (7)Prussian. Regardless, (3)Hata Fort definitly appears to be a single based on his 4th over gs ground in the Grade1 @ Longchamp on 10/7/07. If the race comes off the turf then I will use (8)Midnite Communion as a possible wire-to-wire winner along with (3)Hata Fort. - Pimlico Special (Race 10) Although (2)Gotcha Gold showed the new dimension of rating in his last race, I still expect him on the lead due to his post position. Since (6)Wanderin Boy has to have the lead to win, (6) is now a throw-out. (1)Ryan's for Real and (9)Temporary Saint are in over their heads, and I am concerned about (4)AP Arrow running well 6 weeks after Dubai, so I will not use him either. (8)Sir Whimsey looks a notch below the top contenders, but he will appreciate the wet going. (3)Student Council is a wildcard. I like (7)Grasshopper the best, and am intrigued by (5)Xchanger due to the expected pace. I will focus on (7)Grasshopper & (5)Xchanger on most of my tickets, but will also use (2)Gotcha Gold, (3)Student Council and (8)Sir Whimsey on some back-up tickets. - The Very One (Race 11): I am deep here hoping to beat the fav (9)Smart and Fancy off a layoff. I will use (1)Drama Lady, (2)Bikini Atoll, (3)Weeks, (9)Smart and Fancy and (11)Cat on a Cloud. - Black-Eyed Susan (Race 12): I like (4)Highest Class the best, but will also use (6)Seattle Smooth and (8)Shes All Eltish. I will sprinkle in the Zayat entry and (5)Bsharpsonata on some back-up tickets. My main ticket is $30 and looks like: 3/5,7/1,2,3,9,11/4,6,8
owenized More than 1 year ago
Hello all, Storm Princess had her first official work this morning at Calder. She breezed an easy 3 furlongs in 38 and change. That's all Kaplan wanted. You can watch the move at the link below (she's the brown filly working outside the gray). http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MIpUu-Bpzfg I'll post some Saturday Pimlico/Calder picks tomorrow. Owenized (SteveO)
Riley More than 1 year ago
not being biased or anything, but you can deffinetly cross out Prussian's last two starts. The BC Juvie Turf was a throwout because of the ridiculously yielding ground. Prussian lost 2 shoes in that race and hurt his tendon a bit so he was given a good chunk of time off. His last start was taken off of the turf and he was on poly for the first time coming off of a long layoff. His two loan firm turf tries have been winning ones. But he will probably scratch if it does come up yielding....pray for sunshine! Riley
chicago gerry More than 1 year ago
Stephen Taylor, I am just catching up on your posts concerning AP, Keeneland shippers, and poly-sires. Also, I took note of your exchanges with Steve T. My handicapping for AP has started off so-so this year, as I am still adjusting to the synthetic surface from last year. I will do a lot better at AP than Keeneland, which I eventually gave up on because I was going nowhere handicapping Keeneland's poly-track. I expect to do well on the grass races at AP and am looking forward to the grass events this summer. Some of the Churchill shippers should do well at AP also. Earlie Fires and Douglas jumped off to a great start this year. Douglas is great synthetic surface jockey. During the first two weeks or so you had Thornton with several 2nd's. I expect he will start booting some of those home eventually, although he will always be in Douglas's shadow all meet. Chris Emigh is getting some nice rides as well. I have been out to the track several times thus far utilizing my season pass and have especially enjoyed the outside, although some days have been a little nippy. I managed to catch my HTW, Char's Valentine, on the bottom of a nice exacta today in Arlington's 9th race. The Also Eligible 1-1 favorite, ran out which helped. I haven't participated in the live bankroll tournament yet but expect to do so, the weekend after the one coming up. Am not crazy about the exotics as part of the format, but thought I would try a pick 4 which would count toward 4 of the 5 mandatory races. Again, thanks for posting your information about Arlington Park, and good luck to you. chicago gerry
Calibob More than 1 year ago
Behindatthebar scratched from the Preakness...bruised foot. http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/article/45256.htm I thought he would be better staying on synthetics anyhow. Nevertheless, I hope he recovers well and is back out west soon.