09/28/2007 11:26AM

Friday Q&A

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Steinberg
richie says: Port Bonheur's final time in race 2 on Sept. 16th in your blog and in Simulcast Weekly is listed as 1:10.54. My notes and the replay show the race run in 1:12.20 which explains why my speed figures for that race were so far off. If you know, could you please explain what happened with that race?

I went back and watched the replay and Richie is absolutely right. There was a huge discrepancy between the fractional and final times posted on the screen during the race and those reported in the official results and charts:

Chart: 21.94, 45.05, 57.25, 1:10.54
Replay: 23.60, 47.18, 59.27, 1:12.20

We queried Equibase about this and were told that the official, faster times are correct and that there was a Teletimer error with when the beam was tripped, resulting in the faulty posted times during the race. A couple of people I know hand-timed the replay and said the faster clocking seems closer to the truth, and the previous figures earned by the few previous starters in the race also suggest the faster clocking is correct. My only problem with the explanation is: Even if the "start" beam was tripped too late, wouldn't the internal fractions match up? In other words, if the problem is that the first quarter was 21.94 instead of 23.60, shouldn't the rest of the races be identical? Instead, they're entirely different. Fast version: 21.94, 23.11, 25.49. Slow version: 23.60, 23.58, 25.02. At least the final half-miles are 48.60 in both versions, but I don't get why the second and third quarters don't match up individually.

floppydog says: How come there can't be $1 or dime Pick 6s? Every time I consider playing a P6, I imagine you heading to the windows with a bankroll the size of a sponge cake, and I figure, Why bother.

I'm a big fan and supporter of lower minimums and fractional bets but the one exception I make is the pick six. If we had dime or 50-cent pick-sixes, there would almost never be carryovers and carryovers are a)a great betting opportunity and b)the reason for the giant pools. But the one time you could do a $1 pick-six with no ill effect is on Breeders' Cup day, and I wish they'd give that some serious thought over at BC Ltd. I think it would open up the bet to players who find it too daunting at $2; it's a mandatory-payout pool so there are no carryover concerns; and it would not decrease handle among existing players -- they'd put in the same or more with a higher confidence factor.

hammer says: Can you explain the A-B-C's of your pick 6 for us novice handicappers? How do the C's figure into the equation?

A couple of people asked me to spell out the cost of last Sunday's pick-six investment under the A-B-C system, so here goes. The play was:

Race 5---A:1 B:5,10 C:3,8
Race 6---A:6,10 B:1 C:2,9
Race 7---A:8,11 B:2,6,9 C:3,5
Race 8---A:1 B:4,5
Race 9---A:7 B:1 C:2
Race 10--A: 1,11 B:3 C:4,5

Using all those horses on one caveman ticket would cost $8400 (5x4x7x3x2x5) The idea instead is to spend a lot less by making out an array of tickets where you win if any of the following combinations of runners comes in:
6 A's
5 A's and 1 B or C
4 A's and 2 B's

This required putting in 22 tickets to cover all the permutations:

6 A's:
A/A/A/A/A/A----$8

5 A's and 1 B or C:
B+C/A/A/A/A/A---$32
A/B+C/A/A/A/A---$24
A/A/B+C/A/A/A---$20
A/A/A/B/A/A---$16
A/A/A/A/B/A---$8
A/A/A/A/A/B+C---$12

4 A's and 2 B's:
B/B/A/A/A/A---$16
B/A/B/A/A/A---$24
B/A/A/B/A/A---$32
B/A/A/A/B/A---$16
B/A/A/A/A/B---$8
A/B/B/A/A/A---$12
A/B/A/B/A/A---$16
A/B/A/A/B/A---$8
A/B/A/A/A/B---$4
A/A/B/B/A/A---$24
A/A/B/A/B/A---$12
A/A/B/A/A/B---$6
A/A/A/B/B/A---$16
A/A/A/B/A/B---$8
A/A/A/A/B/B---$4

This would have come out to a $324 investment. I actually put in more by tripling and quadrupling up on B's since my A's were so thin (four singles). I also put in some "D" tickets using "alls" in each of the three turf sprints with 5 A singles in the other races. I am so spooked by the six-furlong turf races, where it seems any chronic quitter can jump up and wire the field, that I didn't want to miss out on a result of five top-choice logical winners and one impossible turf-sprint bomb. Since the ultimate outcome was BACAAA, in retrospect I probably should have instead done some 4A/1B/1C tickets, which wouldn't have cost that much and would have taken down the $21k payoff.

Yes, I know, so would the $8400 caveman ticket.


10cent_supers_l
dennis says: Do you have any info on the ten cent supers at Belmont? I can't bet them on NYRA's site.

Charlie Hayward, NYRA's CEO, writes: "We have just received approval from the State and we are finalizing some minor tote issues and should be putting out a statement with an effective date shortly."


TEN-CENT SUPERFECTAS JOIN NYRA WAGERING MENU
The ten-cent superfecta, a popular variation on an already popular wager, is coming to Belmont Park, effective Sunday, September 30. The New York State Racing and Wagering Board recently approved ten-cent superfectas for all NYRA races in which a superfecta wager is offered.

But there's a caveat down in paragraph 5 of the release:

At this time, fans on-track will be able to place ten-cent
superfectas at self service terminals only. NYRA Rewards internet
wagering on the ten-cent superfecta will be available online as soon as
the internet wagering software is successfully updated.
]

---Well, that mythical SHOWdown play didn't last very long -- out on Day 2, for a mythical loss of $10. One thing I learned was that you have to be crazy to make your selections before late scratches. On both of the first two days of the contest, scratches knocked two fields down to four-horse races, where there was no actual show betting but you could still use these as contest races.

I appreciate alexander_morris's kind offer of a mulligan and restart, but with all the real handicapping and betting coming up in the next two days, I'm abandoning the realm of the mythical for what I hope will be greener pastures.


tom mcdonough More than 1 year ago
I think a comparison and contrasting of the various synthetic surfaces would be a very useful area for discussion and analysis prior to the Breeders' Cup. How do they stack up against each other for handicapping purposes? Which, if any, favor speed? How do horses coming off synthetic surfaces run when they are back on dirt? I haven't seen much on this and it would be useful in analyzing PP's.
polish17 More than 1 year ago
Could you tell me what the effect of portable rails are on the fractional and final times of a turf race. If a horse ran the exact same race on a course where the rails where "at 24 ft" for example, would the times be different than if the rails weren't out?
hz hackenbush More than 1 year ago
Can someone please tell me which race he or she is concerned about, regarding Desormeaux's lack of effort late in the race? I'd like to watch the replay and make up my own mind. Some fans - some, not all - now yell at Desormeaux every time he quits whipping and driving a horse which has CLEARLY given everything there is to give. (Not that a bettor would be anything less than 100% objective or anything. . . .) Anyhoo, which race, or races, are we talking about?
Pritchard More than 1 year ago
Regarding Desormeaux. I thank God everyday, that he left Calif,if only he was a smart as he thinks he is. Trainer John Sadler said it best one day while being interviewed he said"with Kent you never know what you going to get"Let me give you esterners a tip, he loves to SHOW OFF on weekends so beware,he also likes to SAVE a little for the re-ride so beware if he comes back on a horse that didn't finish so well, these kind of ANTICS is exactly the reason west coast trainers and fans got "sick and tired"of this creep. stay in New York Kent.
Kenny Mac More than 1 year ago
I'm so happy that this forum exists. I wondered out loud time and time whether it was just me when I thought that Kent D. wasn't riding out his mounts. It's great to see some of my fellow punters sharing this notion. The great Laffit Pincay Jr rode hard for fourth place, so why can't Kent D.? I continue to play Kent D. but I certainly won't key around him in my tri. super. part wheels. Hey Hz Hackenbush he cost me the super by not showing on La Reason in the 9th at Belmont on 9/21. Form your own opinion.
AndyScoggin More than 1 year ago
I'm with hackenbush, what is everyone complaining about with Desormeaux. The other day, he carried Dubliner to a win. That cost me the pick 4 and pick 3. I thought there was no way Dubliner could get a win, not after all those seconds and then a 7th place finish. That was a perfect horse to just joy ride.
hz hackenbush More than 1 year ago
Okay, I just watched the La Ransom replay, kenny-mac. (I assume you meant La Ransom, not La Reason.) Desormeaux was still pushing on the horse at the wire.
AndyScoggin More than 1 year ago
I know this may seem silly, but does everyone know that the time of the race does not start when the gate opens, but when a horse crosses the actually starting distance for the race. The track announcer used to say, "the flag is up", and then the flag dropped to start the time. Now the horse crosses the beam to start the timer.
Ray Manley More than 1 year ago
Regarding Michael's comment on Kent D. failing to ride his mounts out to the wire. I don't believe this is something NYRA needs to address but it certainly is something that the stewards need to address. Kent is famous for doing this. I believe this is why he left California. Too many owners and trainers got tired of Kent not picking up slices of the purse. A second or a third to a small time owner can be huge. And certainly hitting an exacta or a tri can be huge to a player. After this past Saratoga season no one can question Kent's horsemanship, the man can flat out horseback. Until the stewards hit him (or others)with a 60 day suspension and a $100,000 fine, I believe this will continue.
michael More than 1 year ago
Desormeaux not riding his horses out again to the wire...when is the NYRA going to do something about this? When is an owner going to embarrass him in public! When is a racing fan going to Joe Pesci him (Easy Money)? Mental note to self: NEVER play exotics with Kent D. riding in the race...