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Friday Breeders' Cup Opinions
"Good luck to Zenyatta in her quest for perfection 20-0," welcomes visitors to Louisville Standiford Field airport.
There is no doubt who the draw is for this year's World Thoroughbred Championships. Usually the event itself is the lure. "Breeders' Cup" stands on its own. Very rarely will an individual horse bring the people out in droves. Curlin didn't in 2008 and he was a top, top horse. Goldikova? Say her name to a casual fan, and you'll receive a puzzled look.
But there's something about Zenyatta.
At the airport. On the plane. In the hotel. She's on everyone's mind, her name on everyone's lips.
We'll have to wait and see.
For the appetizers, well they're not exactly microwaved Pigs in a Blanket.
Friday's Breeders' Cup "Ladies Day" boasts some competitive betting races. I'll be down and I'm sure you will be as well.
Here are some opinions.
Arguably the weakest race on both Breeders' Cup cards, the Marathon features Grade 3 types and Europeans that are actually expected to handle the mammoth 14-furlong distance. Like many, I'll concentrate on the two horses exiting the Grade 2 Hawthorne Gold Cup at ten furlongs on October 2. The Gold Cup was once a realistic prep for the Breeders' Cup Classic and Redding Colliery, this year's winner, has the potential to be a very useful Grade 2 or lower-tier Grade 1 runner. There are no Redding Colliery's in the Marathon for A. U. MINER and GIANT OAK to down, and the perceived drop in class may get A. U. Miner to the winner's circle.
A four-year-old son of Giant's Causeway, A. U. Miner was mired in the entry-level allowance condition for 12 races before finally breaking through at Oaklawn Park on March 11. He's been lightly-campaigned since, taking the "Win and You're In" Greenwood Cup at Philadelphia Park on July 17 before being freshened prior to the Hawthorne Gold Cup. A. U. Miner is no superstar - none of the entrants in the Marathon are - but he doesn't have to be to win this race. All the late-runner needs is a quick pace, and there may be the rub. Other than GABRIEL'S HILL, there doesn't appear to be a good deal of speed in the race, and that could work against A. U. Miner. Still, someone has to win and A. U. Miner appears to be in career form.
As for Giant Oak, he's the runner with all the tools in the world. Unfortunately for his connections, he's just never put it all together. A plodding type with a hulking physique, he should handle this trip, but he just isn't very dependable, winning only 1 of his last 19 starts.
Bettors could do worse than PRECISION BREAK at 15-1 on the morning line. The European adds Lasix for his American debut, seems to have some tactical speed, and is proven at this distance.
AWESOME GEM is the class of the race as he upset Rail Trip in the Grade 1 Hollywood Gold Cup in July thanks to a picture-perfect trip. While another that sometimes finds one or two better in big races, he's run pretty well on dirt, winning 4 of 12 on the surface. He's seven now, and dangerous on his best, but I'm not sure I trust him at too short of a price.
Selections: A. U. Miner, Giant Oak. Precision Break, Bright Horizon
JUVENILE FILLIES TURF:
I think ten can win so I'll probably sit this one out. They tell me to make selections so here they are.
Selections: Quiet Oasis, Fancy Point, Tale Untold, Together
FILLY AND MARE SPRINT:
I will gladly take 30-1 on MOONTUNE MISSY in the Filly and Mare Sprint. I can't find a bad race on dirt from this Eoin Harty-trained filly, and she just finished ahead of SARA LOUISE when a head shy in the Grade 2 Gallant Bloom on September 25. She's won from off the pace (the fractions should be solid here), she's won at seven furlongs, and she seems to be in the best form of her life. Her workmate, the juvenile colt Anthony's Cross (October 24 workout), just broke his maiden at Churchill Downs on Thursday afternoon. The "Keeneland Clocker Report" for October 18 noted that she "went easily with Graham up." Seven mornings earlier, she reportedly "went very easily." Obviously, this will be her toughest test to date, but the price is certainly right.
RIGHTLY SO, the morning line favorite, may be the speed of the speed and is worth using in multi-race wagers, but I think she may have been aided by two speed-favoring tracks in her last couple of races. SWITCH cuts back in distance after facing Zenyatta, and should be running late while I thought CHAMPAGNE D'ORO ran very well in the Test at this distance during the Saratoga meet. Also, Sara Louise should do better in her second start following a bruised foot suffered during training over the summer at the Spa.
Selections: Moontune Missy, Rightly So, Switch, Champagne d'Oro
I really like AWESOME FEATHER. She's a perfect 5-5 in her career and her last two Beyer Speed Figures are faster than anyone else in the field has ever run. But, since she's based in Calder, she may not take the betting action that she should. She looked really good when completing a sweep of the Florida Stallion Stakes in the My Dear Girl on October 16 at this distance. The race was over two seconds faster than the juvenile colt division and Awesome Feather won by open lengths. I think she'll stalk the speeds from fairly close range before moving on the turn.
A Z WARRIOR and R HEAT LIGHTNING, the 1-2 finishers of the Grade 1 Frizette, are the two morning line favorites and project to take a great amount of money. The latter didn't have a very good trip in the Frizette, but she may have distance issues. The former was helped by a good trip in the Frizette and her female family is all speed as well. I'll let them beat me.
TELL A KELLY has an explosive bid and is pretty professional. She'll try dirt for the first time, but I wouldn't be surprised if she handles it just fine.
Selections: Awesome Feather, Delightful Mary, A Z Warrior, Tell a Kelly
FILLY AND MARE TURF:
MIDDAY will be the popular choice as the defending champion enters this year's renewal following three Group 1 wins in Europe. She's obviously the horse to beat and is a must-use in multi-wagers.
I will take a stab against her, however, with the solid MISS KELLER, a filly that's been in excellent form for Roger Attfield. She looked great winning the Grade 2 Canadian Handicap two back at Woodbine, and I really think she moved too soon last time out in the E.P. Taylor. In-and-among horses for the early part of the race, she moved four wide once she found a seam at the top of the daunting Woodbine stretch. She soon made the front, but was run down late by European invader Reggane. The main concern is that Midday is considered several lengths better than Reggane, but Miss Keller has been good of late, and will offer some value.
HARMONIOUS got a little goofy during the stretch run of her recent score in the Queen Elizabeth II, and will tackle older runners for the first time. She does have talent and upside.
Selections: Miss Keller, Midday, Harmonious, Forever Together
I really wish I had more of an opinion on this race as it features some salty performers. But I don't. I thought Life At Ten had a great setup tracking a pace battle in the Grade 1 Beldame. BLIND LUCK is very, very good, and very, very game, but I felt she lacked a bit of focus when rallying for second in the Cotillion at Parx Racing. HAVRE DE GRACE drew a terrible post position. All of the above are usable, but I do think that ACTING HAPPY is sitting on a good race for Rick Dutrow. She'll add blinkers for the first time, has been freshened up for this, and has the tactical speed to sit off the early speed at a big, big price.
I won't be doing much with this race.
Selections: Acting Happy, Havre de Grace, Blind Luck, Life At Ten
Don't forget that Saturday's HandiGambling is Saturday's Breeders' Cup Classic. Rules and past performances are available on the previous blog entry.
Best of luck. Enjoy the great racing!
Mike A, SSSWWWWWWEEEEEEEEEETTTTTTTTTTTT!! Sagamore Farms is back! HG BC Classic As i write Big Z is 3-5. I'll focus on Blame. Loves the track and should have a nice setup. Been planning this run for 49 weeks. Lookin at Lucky is primed to run a nice one as well. Quality Road has a sticky post but I have a sneaky suspicion he'll be there. The Great Zenyatta will have to be to inhale these. Not at 3-5 to even. The bet: $30 ex. 5-12 $20 ex. 5-1 $5 tri 5/1,8,12 $4 tri 5/8/3,4,6,7,12
Breeder’s Cup – Saturday Races – 11/6/10 Race #4 – Juvenile Turf MADMAN DIARIES (#10) has wicked speed, and the turf is kind enough to front runners. I also like his trainer percentages and the workouts. I’ll forgive the two-turn experience for this race. UTLEY (#6) has run all of his efforts on soft turf, and the firm turf should be more to his liking based on his pedigree. Trainer percentages are also strong. MASTER OF HOUNDS (#5) is a usual O’Brien threat, and his timeform rating last out suggests that he belongs. SOLIDAT (#9) won a Grade III around two turns at Saratoga this summer for trainer McLaughlin. He is also working smartly coming into this. He is a threat. Race #5 – Sprint WISE DAN (#3) has a pattern that reminds me of Thunderello. Workouts and trainer percentages are too strong to ignore. He looks like a serious power-sprinter to me. RILEY TUCKER (#10) is a bit of a sucker-horse, but he is honest. He will figure in this mix. SMILING TIGER (#5) is fast, and he may improve enough running on dirt to win or hit the board here. He scares me. WARRIOR’S REWARD (#12) will be be flying late, but probably too late to win. I will use him in boxes. Race #6 – Turf Sprint SILVER TIMBER (#5) should sit a perfect trip under Jockey Leparoux, and he owns a win at this distance and on this course. UNZIP ME (#4) is fast, and will be around at the finish. STRADIVINSKY (#3) is also fast, and should be in the mix at the end. CHAMBERLAIN BRIDGE (#1) will enjoy the pace setup, and will be flying late. Race #7 - Juvenile JAYCITO (#10) surprised me in his first attempt around two turns, but that effort sold me. I am betting that he will love the dirt, and that his form is holding. JP’S GUSTO (#4) is another California shipper that surprised me by his two turn debut. I will include here. J.B.’S THUNDER (#3) had an easy time of it at Keeneland last time out, but he does get some credit for carving out that pace. RIVETING REASON (#5) is Blinkers On, has two turn experience, and is working smartly for this. I will use underneath at a price. Race #8 – Mile (Turf) SIDNEY’S CANDY (#9) is a freak. Wire to wire. ‘Nuff said. COURT VISION (#4) is a hard-knocking horse, and I won’t get fooled again by his form. He is solid, and will hit the board here. PACO BOY (#6) has enough class and closing ability to make things interesting down the stretch. GOLDIKOVA (#10) is also a freak and can win this, but not today. GIO PONTI (#3) is too good to ignore, but not for me on top. Race #9 – Dirt Mile HERE COMES BEN (#5) is in good form, is working like a monster, and comes from a high percentage barn. Even Alex Solis can’t mess this up. TIZWAY (#3) is a major player here, and will figure in here. VINEYARD HAVEN (#12) is as solid as it gets, and I will be using underneath and in boxes. GAYEGO (#6) Solid. Underneath and in boxes. Race #10 – Turf Classic CHAMP PEGASUS (#1) is my toilet-bowl-special for the day. We’ll see how this works out for me… Race #11 – I hate this race, and will be rooting hard for Zenyatta. I won’t get greedy here, so suffice it to say that I hope she (and the rest of the field) come back safely. This will be hard for me to watch. I’ll plunk down $5 on LOOKING AT LUCKY to Win, and hope that I lose. Enjoy the day to its’ fullest. Have fun with the races, and do something nice for someone today. That’s a sure-fire way to have a winning day ☺! Late VS
KYL Syndicate - My Analysis and Wagers for Saturday November 6 Friday On the rare occasion where horse racing actually makes the news due to the pursuit of 20 by Zenyatta, how does racing continue to give itself a black eye. No doubt Castellano was at fault for cutting over and thankfully Garcia miraculously stayed aboard but Borel, what were you doing? You looked possessed and no doubt would have pulverized Castellano if he had the chance. Major black eye and then to make matters worse, over a million dollars was wagered on Life At Ten, and how they did not scratch the horse needs some serious review. Once ESPN was interviewing Velazquez and he mentioned Lift At Ten was not warming up well, they kept the camera on huer, and it was obvious something was wrong. How the on-track physician did not see something was wrong, I assume this has caused someone their job. Fight between jockeys is one thing but gamblers getting screwed, that’s inexcusable… I assume Workforce will be scratched due to how the Euros performed today. If he does run, its hard for me to back him as the heavy favorite and this in turn makes the race a crapshoot. And obviously the West Coast horse performed poorly today with horses who show an affinity for Churchill Downs doing well. Turning the page and onto Saturday’s races… Aqueduct: I believe they announced earlier today that both race 1 and 3 is off the turf and this in turn has made the 14 SAGINAW a heavy favorite. He is dropping down and going turf to dirt but this is such a weak field that 75% of the good SAGINAW would crush this field. Will take a guess as to who will be running as I’ll be out in the morning and be back, hopefully by noon thus posting this tonight, will take a 50 exacta of 14-7, 25 Triple 14/7-15 hoping for a 5-1 return on the exacta and a 15-1 return on the tri. Will also take a 50 double of 14-9 as race 2 appears to be a two horse race between the 9 and 10, and favor the 9 who has a bit more early speed as they both exit out of a race that had faster pace early, 25 exacta box of 9-10 and a 50 exacta of 9-10 in race 2. Yes, these are some chalky wagers but need to add to the bankroll for later races. Aqueduct race 6 is the Grade II Nashua and is a small field of six whereby the 1 TO HONOR AND SERVE is the deserving morning line favorite having won an off the turf race in amassing a 95 beyer. TO HONOR AND SERVE was actually considered for the Breeders Cup Juvenile but Mott decided to take a more conservative approach. Hard to imagine TO HONOR AND SERVE won’t be in the exacta, but will take a chance on 3 MUCHO MACHO MAN to spring the upset. MUCHO MACHO MAN is the fourth choice at 8-1 and not sure why he’s not the second choice in the race, considering the 5 had a slow pace setup when winning at 7f and the 2 who is third choice won at 5.5f and is questionable to get the distance. MUCHO MACHO MAN has speed if he chooses to use it, but I imagine with his long stride he would be better situated to sit right off the 2 and 6, while better positioned to run the distance and with the favorite breaking from the rail, perhaps Cohen can race ride, and pin the 1 inside down the backstretch, and take him out for the stretch while the 1 is still waiting for room. A lot of wishing but at 8-1, lets go with 25 exacta box of 3-1, 25 exacta 3-1 and 25 tri 3-1-6 Monmouth Park: Race 6, the 2 FAGEDABOUDIT SAL who beat similar last out will likely be even money in this spot and looks poised for another easy win. The 5 JERSEY KISS who was the favorite in that race broke slow and now adds blinkers and will be asked for speed early but is questionable at the distance. The rail horse REFUGE at 10-1 can sit the trip behind the leaders and hold on for second to round out the exacta. 10 triple 2/1-7 ; 15 triple 2/1-6 ; 30 exacta 2-1 Race 8, the 3 WILDCAT FRANKIE returned from a five month layoff and was let go at 7-1, took the field wire to wire reminiscent of his first two starts in his career. Is the listed second choice at 5/2 but is the speed of the race, helped out with the other speed having drawn the rail and the outside horse who will likely settle a couple of lengths off the pace. Allowed to set things up front on his own, look for WILDCAT FRANKIE to make it two in a row. 5 super 3/2/1-5-7 ; 5 super 3/2-5-7 Churchill Downs Race 2: RAPPORT will likely go off as odds on having won a grade 3 and facing better BUT this horse is hard to trust and with the rail draw will have to gun out for the lead. May get brave or may do one of his gun and fade deals, and leaning the latter will happen. The 2 NICOLE H destroyed a very weak field at Belmont as expected but did it the right way and its good to see Hushion ship her to Churchill which is a good sign. 2 tri and 2 super on 2/9-10-11 ; 8 exacta 2/9-10-11 Breeders Cup: Need to take advantage and wager on the 50 cent pick 3 and pick 4. If I did that today using the five horses I listed, at least I would have hit the first couple of pick 3 and cut down on my losses. Its not the way I wager, but on days like this, if I don’t have a strong opinion, I need to exercise this wager. Here are my dime super and fifty cent pick 4 wagers…if I can get lucky and get my top selection home and hit a couple of these supers, it should pay decent considering I’m not using any favorite on top… Juvenile: On closer examination, no change in who I like here as BANNED has impressed me in all his starts, as he is quick from the gate but has been able to ration out his speed and has opened up in the stretch without ever being asked. 50 cent super 8/3-4-5-9 10 cent super box 8-3-4-5-9 10 cent super 8/4-9-5-3-6-12-13 50 cent pick 4 4-8/1-3-10-11-12/9-1-5/2 50 cent pick 4 8/10-12-11-1-3-9-2-5/9-5-11-10-1-2-3-8/2 Sprint: If BIG DRAMA had any other post but the rail, I would love him in here but am deftly afraid that he will encounter problems from the start. He may still go off at 5-1 or higher which will make me second guess whether I should wager on him to win. This is a race I am not confident in as any number of horses can win, but will stick with my choice earlier on 10 RILEY TUCKER whose best race was at Churchill Downs with a 110 beyer and in some ways the pace scenario here may mimic his career best effort when he went thru on the rail for the win. 50 cent super 10/12-11-1-3 10 cent super box 10-12-11-1-3 10 cent super 10/12-11-1-3-9-2-5 Turf Sprint: 50 cent super 9/1-5-10-11 10 cent super box 9-1-5-10-11 10 cent super 9/5-11-10-1-2-3-8 Juvenile: BOYS AT TOSCONOVA is my best bet and hope to get 5/2 100 win 2 15 tri 2/3-7 ; 10 tri 2/3/7-9 25 exacta 2/3 50 cent pick 3 2/11-10/2-4-5-6-7 50 cent pick 3 2/11/2-4-5-6-7-1-3-12 Mile: Lone speed is one of my favorite angles and I know SYDNEY’S CANDY is loose here and his last race was impressive but I have decided to stick with my first choice of PROVISO over GOLDIKOVA in here. From the clockers, it appears PROVISO has trained extremely well at Churchill Downs and will stick with her here. 50 cent super 11/3-4-6-10 10 cent super box 11-3-4-6-10 10 cent super 11/10-3-6-9-4-7-5 50 cent pick 4 11-10/4-2-5-6-7-1-3-12/4-5-7-8/7 Dirt Mile: Originally I had favored GAYEGO but now I’m negative on both the bin Suroor Saaed horses and will instead go with a bomb in 4 MAD FLATTER. Sure I’ll go back and forth on this race but for now… 50 cent super 4/2-5-6-7 10 cent super box 4-2-5-6-7 10 cent super 4/2-5-6-7-1-3-12 Turf: Will wager against WORKFORCE as there is simply too much question on whether he will handle the firm turf. Can’t back with any confidence when he will be a short price. Too many question marks in here but favor DEBUSSY in here. Classic: MUSKET MAN to shock the world 50 cent super 7/5-8-1-12 10 cent super box 7-5-8-1-12 10 cent super 7/5-8-1-12-2-3-6
Only 1 for 6 today, the 1 being Dubai Majesty. By the way Blackstone, I feel your pain. I went through the same thought process and even stated in my analysis that I thought 7 furlongs was not her best distance. But I thought she was in such good form that I stuck with her. Anyway, on to Sat. Here are my thoughts (guesses): Juvenile Turf: Honestly, I don't have a clue. Could it be another Pletcher, Gomez, More Than Ready, Woodbine Horse ??? I will go with these: Mantoba Soldat Pluck (see above connection) Sprint: Glad this is not part of the pick 6. Warrior's Reward Giralamo Hamazing Destiny (don't think this is the worst long shot to give a look) Turf Sprint: Tons of speed. Think a closer will run them down. Which one ??? Chamberlain Bridge Silver Timber Grand Adventure Juvenile: Will try to beat the obvious favorites. Biondetti J. B.'s Thunder Boys at Tosconova Mile (turf): Goldikova Paco Boy Court Vision Dirt Mile: Here Comes Ben Tizway Morning Line Turf: Behkabad Winchester (has been in very good form) Telling Classic: Zenyatta Lookin at Lucky Fly Down Good luck to all Dick W
(The scene-Churchill Downs winner's circle after the Ladies Classic) A microphone descends out of thin air and is grabbed by Michael Buffer, whose poof, though she tried valiantly, Snooki failed to match. "Ladies and Gentlemen, in this corner, standing 5'1" and weighing in at 110lbs, The Master of Crossover Disaster, The Servant of Abrupt Far Turn Rally Interuptus, SENOR JAAA-VIER CASSSSSSSTELLANNNNO!" "And in this corner, weighing in at a raging 116lbs and standing 5'4", The Dean of Tazmanian Mean, The Führer of Fury, The 'I'M GOING TO KILL TO HIM' Three time Kentucky Derby winning rider and Late Night with Letterman ambassador of the sport, CALLLL-VINNNN 'LET ME AT HIM' BOOO-RELLLL!" "The final contestant in our event to further sully the sport is a first. It's a flag flying between the Twin Spires with the Speak No Evil, See No Evil, and Hear No Evil monkeys representing Life At Ten's trainer, the gate veterinarian, and the stewards. WAIT- Todd Pletcher just left the track to rush home to see if his own Dorian Gray portrait took a hit today so folks there will be one less tag teamer in this event." "Let's GET READY TO RUMMMMMMMBLE!"
Saturday-How Exciting Can It Get? Quick picks: 4th-Master Of Hounds-following Dan on this one-he's won a stack of baby races, including Awesome Feather 5th-Kinsale King-posted the analysis yesterday 6th-Grand Adventure-If Woodbine Class is real, he might be a standout 7th-J.B.'s Thunder-am two for two on him, can't leave him now. Stall is doing great work lately 8th-Proviso-think she might be the next great mare. Backed up by an exacta box (in different amounts) with Goldikova 9th-Here Comes Ben-Favorite play of the day-streaking, and the trainer is on fire. Horse for the course too 10th-Behkabad-think he reverses the Arc. Workforce an in and outer, but a great horse too. 11th-Win bet on Z for sure, but a major ATB on Blame-also box the two. Like many others, been on Blame all year. The only one (obviously IMO) who poses a huge threat to Z. I'll have tons of win savers in many of the races-too numerous to list. I'll miss the live running of the Classic, but I sure will be thinking about it. Good luck to all of you today. Ok Mike A-give us a winner for a change, will you?
Quick and dirty, as Illman likes to say. Sprint-Inside draw eliminates Big Drama and severely compromises Girolamo. All five speed trainers claim they will "take back" which cements a 21 flat opening quarter. Although I dislike Leporeaux he is top notch winding up deep closers when there is pace. Warriors Reward runs them down at 7-1. Turf Sprint-There isn't a Chinook Pass in the 14 horse 5F heat so we may see multiple Castellano's pulled on the turn. No clue here. Juvenile- No, not Boys at Toscanova, Jaycito, Larry, Shemp, or Curley. Uncle Mo. Mile- Gio Ponti over Goldikova though I will also include Paco Boy and Proviso on the horizontals. Sidney's Candy isn't this good and his La Jolla is overrated. No, that's not sour grapes from overlooking him at Del Mar. The race wasn't that good. And this turf course doesn't favor his style. Dirt Mile- VERY disappointed Crown of Thorns couldn't stay healthy another week as he was a complete standout at ~5/2. With his scratch it's a grab bag. Turf-Hoping Workforce goes so it inflates the price on the rest. Classic-Zenyatta.
I had no idea Steve Haskin was throwing in Musket Man as a long shot in the Classic. Laugh if you want, but my last post here was before I had even read Haskin. Consider this snippet from Bloodhorse: "Musket Man is a horse we’ve always liked, because of his consistency, gameness, and versatility. And he’s had nothing but bad luck through a good part of his career, yet still has managed to finish in the money in all 14 of his starts, while competing against the best. The 10 furlongs is a question, but his performances in last year’s Kentucky Derby (gr. I) and Preakness (gr. I) suggest it might not out be of his range. Many knock him for failing to pass Etched in the Monmouth Cup (gr. II), but he came home his last three-eighths in :35 2/5 and last eighth in :11 1/5, and horses just don’t close faster than that. At 20-1, he at least has to be considered in the exotics." I agree. And the final 1/8th in 11-1/5 at 9 furlongs and 35 2/5 is as fast, if not faster, than ANY horse in this race has ever closed at 9f or better. Including you know who...I am not saying he will win--BUT HE WILL BE OVERLOOKED FOR SURE. If he stays 20-1, how can you leave this horse off of your exotics? He has never finished less than 3rd and has hit the board twice over 9 furlongs. Are you willing to blow an exotic that this is the race MM does not hit the board in? He has raced this caliber racehorse all year long. Unlike some in this field.
I know I have not posted in a while. I thought I should drop in and see what the best handicappers I know of in the free blog world are writing about BC Fri and Sat. I have been busy studying for the bar and finishing up my loose ends on my 3L year. Very busy, and also building and fixing computers on the side (maybe that is why C's posts are starting to make a lot of sense to me?) LOL... Mike A, good hit Friday on Shared Account. I know TBTA thanks you! I am very happy for Stanley Gold who trained Jackson Bend when he was a world beater and then had him ripped away...he had the best juvie filly Friday, that is for sure. Unbeaten to boot. Attention wealthy investors, if you want to buy a piece of this filly, keep her in Florida with Stanley...he deserves her! TBTA, I agree with you and everyone else that Life at Ten never should have loaded. Racing is lucky nothing horrible happened. Larry B is concerned? Where was the gate or paddock Vet? Incredible...Something you would expect to happen at a third tier old greyhound track, not at the BC at CD! Wanted to give a shout out to everyone: too many to list. You know who you are...feel free to give feedback because I am placing a couple of bets on the sprint, the Juvenile and the Classic (and I am swinging at the fence for the Classic). As for the Sprint, it would be nice to see Big Drama get a grade 1. He is a grade 1 level horse, and he should get a good trip. Not sure if he is the best in the sprint, but he is close. With the juvies I am going to isolate the two top choices and wheel the rest of the field underneath and hope for a longshot to hit the board. As for the Classic, I agree with C. A part will be happy for Z if she wins (the fan in me) because she is an all time great. This is a tall order for her. Quality Road and Blame alone are better than any other horse on dirt she has ever raced. Lookin at Lucky has looked better and better to me, and 3 year olds, if they are good, take another leap at this time of the year. I am not sure how much QR will be compromised by the 1 post, they may have to gun him a bit out of the gate but horses with QR's tactical speed and high cruising speed are best up at stride near the front. The key will be how the other speed in the race (what little of it there is) presses him, or more likely goes to the front. If QR can settle behind, he may be ok. I have doubts about him being a true 10f horse, but the last time he ran at 10f was in the slop and he held his own against a true 10f horse (Summer Bird). SB is not running any more, sadly. Blame and Z should have good trips from far back, but I am not sure how much pace will come back at them. They do not need the race to fall apart, but it would help. At her price, however, I have to take a stand against Z. Sorry. She is 6.5 years old, and horses like Quality Road and Blame are in their prime. I also like Musket Man for a price. Has he ever finished out of the money at any distance? He ran 3rd at CD at 10f in the slop with a horrid trip, and he and MTB were the only horses (along with SB) that actually picked off horses in the CD stretch. Of course, MTB picked off the field that day. Do not sleep on MM or LAL. They have a running style that may benefit both here. They are stalkers who will get a jump on the closers. MM has been slowly stretched out and his come home time in his last race at 9f was extremely strong, he ran the final furlong in a strong time, the final 3 furlongs, but was the victim of no pace and a speed horse who was loose on the lead. He just missed. They have been building his stamina with some weird aquatic training, but it seems to be working. He has sprinter's speed but is best between 8.5 to 9 furlongs. And given a setup, he could factor. Can he win? I would not bet the house on that, but stranger things could happen, and this is a horse who gives his all and has had no breaks. One day... Well, at the price I am hoping he hits the board. Good luck to all Saturday!
HG 208 $ 33 ex key 2 / 1,4,6. Paddy from derby to cup