07/03/2015 10:40AM

Fornatale: Contest player breaks down Saturday claimer

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Roger Cettina has been having a huge year. He currently sits sixth on the National Handicapping Championship standings, and he's only that low because one of the contests he won outright online didn't include tour points as only one NHC seat was awarded that day. Don't feel bad for him though: He also got a Breeders' Cup Betting Challenge seat.

Cettina was kind enough to take an in-depth look at Woodbine's 10th race Saturday, which will be featured in this week's BCQualify.com contest. It's a 14-horse field of conditioned claimers going seven furlongs. On paper, it's a wide-open race that seems sure to offer great value. Take it away, Roger!

#1 Midnight Rawks (30-1): Seems way too slow and is 1 for 30 lifetime; pass.

#2 Eildon Hall (30-1): She is making her third start off a layoff and dropping in class but still is 1 for 35 lifetime; pass.

#3 This Is the Way (6-1): She is consistent at this level and makes her third start off a layoff. She comes out of a key race where Formulator's chart feature shows me the winner won the next condition right back and the second-place finisher won an allowance at Fort Erie in her next start. This mare also won her maiden at today’s seven-furlong distance; contender.

#4 Relocate the Sky (8-1): Makes her third start off the layoff and drops in for a tag for the first time. Her race two back on the synthetic is good enough to contend in here, but in a field this big, I want more than the price I believe she is going to be (guessing around 5-1). , Still, she's a contender.

#5 Sierra Angel (30-1): Pass

#6 Azulinha (20-1): Pass

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#7 La Nena Del Valle (30-1): Ran Tuesday at Fort Erie against males going two turns on the dirt, then winds up here?  Formulator's trainer tool tells me trainer Mario Maver is 3 for 21 racing back in one to seven days with a $5.33 ROI over the last five years. She does have a race from last year that would make her a contender speed figure-wise and gets a positive rider switch; longshot chance.

#8 R Coco Chanel (7-2): Won a maiden $12,500 going 5 1/2 furlongs wire to wire last out and now faces winners. Trainer is 44 percent at the meet. I always bet against these types at short prices. This race is seven furlongs, and she figures to get company on the front end from the 10 and 12. I'll try to beat.

#9 Niigon's Intrigue (3-1): Adds blinkers , makes her third start off a layoff, and drops for a tag for the first time. Speed figure-wise, she could be tough with her best race at seven furlongs. I hate the big drop to $10,000 from an allowance at 3-1; you need her in exotics but not in tournament play.

#10 Charlies Mist (10-1): She makes her second start off a two-year layoff and drops in class. She figures to show speed and keep No. 8 company on the front end, but I don't see her around at the end; pass.

#11 Midnight in Ocala (15-1): The barn is having a rough meet – 0 for 40 – but this filly is lightly raced, making only her fourth start at 4. Let’s take a look at some positives: She comes out of the same key race as No. 3 This is My Way, where she was four lengths behind her; her race two back was against multiple winners and is a throw out; three back, in her first start at 4, she was under a snug hold early and wanted to run, finishing well at five furlongs; her maiden win came at seven furlongs; and I believe the race shape puts her laying clear right behind the three speed horses, Nos. 8, 10, and 12. She should be every bit if not more of her 15-1 morning line in this 14-horse field; contender.

#12 Silent Auction (10-1): Ran third last time against Pretty Bird, who freaked in this condition. This filly is hard to endorse in the win position with her 17-1-7-2 overall record. She figures to be up close, but her best races seem to be at shorter distances.

#13 Showing True (20-1): Makes third start off layoff and goes route to sprint. Can’t endorse for the win or place but maybe on the bottom of the exotics.

#14 Gu Gu Beans (8-1): Has run two awful races since being claimed for $20,000; now in for $10,000. I'll pass.

Summary

In a contest, this is the kind of race I would look for a longshot for sure. Midnight in Ocala fits the bill and looks like a cap horse. I also like 3, 4, 9, 12, and 7 in that order.

Cliff Amyotte More than 1 year ago
It ran 3-10-9-12