03/01/2011 6:38PM

Formulator Thoughts, Short Horses, Field Size, Beyers

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Let's get down to business.

Here are the top 25 winning Beyer Speed Figures from last week's races (2/21/11 - 2/27/11):

1.  Sunrise Smarty - 104 - Alw 43120N1X - 6 Furlongs (Inner Dirt) - Aqueduct
2.  Flashpoint - 102 - Hutcheson Stakes(Grade 2) - 7 Furlongs - Gulfstream
3.  Little Mike - 101 - Canadian Turf Stakes(Grade 3) - 1 Mile (Turf) - Gulfstream
3.  No Advantage - 101 - General George Handicap (Grade 2) - 7 Furlongs - Laurel
5.  R Heat Lightning - 98 - Davona Dale Stakes (Grade 2) - 1 Mile - Gulfstream
6.  Hoorayforhollywood - 97 - Md Sp Wt 55k - 5 1/2 Furlongs - Santa Anita
6.  It Happened Again - 97 - OC 65k/C -N - 1 Mile - Oaklawn
6.  J J's Lucky Train - 97 - Miracle Wood Stakes - 7 Furlongs - Laurel
9.  Quick Enough - 96 - Sensational Star Handicap - 6 1/2 Furlongs (Turf) - Santa Anita
9.  Soldat - 96 - Fountain of Youth Stakes (Grade 2) - 1 1/8 Miles - Gulfstream
11. Be Bullish - 95 - Hollie Hughes Stakes - 6 Furlongs (Inner Dirt) - Aqueduct
11. Christmas for Liam - 95 - Alw 40500N1X - 1 Mile - Gulfstream
11. Funny Sunny -  95 - Alw 42700N1X - 6 Furlongs - Gulfstream
11. Hud's Rebel - 95 - Alw 54000NC - 6 Furlongs - Fair Grounds
15. Cozi Rosie - 94 - Buena Vista Handicap (Grade 2) - 1 Mile (Turf) - Santa Anita
15. Major Billy - 94 - OC 25k/N1Y - 6 Furlongs - Sunland
17. Five Grand Girl - 93 - Patty's Positive Stakes - 6 Furlongs (Inner Dirt) - Aqueduct
17. Mr. Porter - 93 - Alw ---s - 7 Furlongs - Delta Downs
19. Count On Lou - 92 - Clm 20000(20-18) - 1 Mile - Laurel
19. Honkytonk Stomp - 92 - Grasmick Stakes - 4 Furlongs - Fonner
19. It's Never to Late - 92 - OC 20k/ -N - 6 Furlongs - Gulfstream
19. Kelly Leak - 92 - OC 80k/N3X - 6 1/2 Furlongs (Turf) - Santa Anita
19. Lydia's Last Step - 92 - Clm c-(25-20) - 1 Mile - Sunland
19. Stand - 92 - Clm 17500(17.5-15) - 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - Fair Grounds 
25. Hallelujah Trail - 91 - OC 50k/N2X - 6 Furlongs (Tapeta) - Golden Gate
25. Keepinonestepahead - 91 - Clm 30000(30-25) - 6 Furlongs - Fair Grounds
25. Jack On the Rocks - 91 - OC 50k/N2X - 6 Furlongs (Inner Dirt) - Aqueduct
25. Really Uptown - 91 -Clm 22500(25-22.5) - 6 1/2 Furlongs - Santa Anita
25. Snow Fall - 91 - Md Sp Wt 41k - 1 Mile 70 Yards - Fair Grounds

Sunrise Smarty's past performances are available at the bottom of this blog post.

*Does Bob Baffert have another late entrant on the Kentucky Derby trail?  Hoorayforhollywood, a three-year-old son of Storm Cat out of multiple Grade 1 winner Hollywood Story, won his debut at 5 1/2 furlongs by 3 1/4 lengths.  Hollywood Story won the Hollywood Starlet at 1 1/16 miles and the Vanity at nine furlongs. 

*Snow Fall, a three-year-old filly by red-hot sire War Front, won her maiden by 5 1/2 lengths with a 91 Beyer in an off-the-turf event on February 25.  It was the first dirt, and first route, start for Snow Fall, a $14,500 short yearling trained by Michael Stidham.  Snow Fall is a half-sister to Upperline, the winner of the Grade 3 Arlington Oaks at nine furlongs.  The dam, Snowflake, was multiple stakes-placed going long on grass.

***

Hi Dan, someone had requested the pp's for Pulpit and I was surprised to see 6 races with beyers all over 100...can't say I've seen that too often. He has certainly left quite a legacy as a sire
I was wondering if you could post the lifetime pp's for two Canadian champs, With Approval and Izvestia. thank you kindly
Greg

The past performances are available at the bottom of the blog post.

***

Tejano Run or Dan
Tejano Run did a Formulator search for some of Kent D's statistics recently. I also use Formulator, currently the Unlimited version which I got for signing up to DRF Bets, and the trainer and the jockey both are highlighted and can be clicked on, but for the life of me I cannot get anything to change to research J/T combinations. I mess with the filters but that doesn't help me much. A quick lesson or tip? Gracias.
Ron Zuercher

Let's take the Wednesday "Race of the Day" (with free Formulator Past Performances) as an example.  It's the fourth race at Gulfstream.

1.  Click on Todd Pletcher's name (#2 Holiday Flare)
2.  Click MODIFY FILTERS
3.  Choose your time frame (I will keep it at the PAST FIVE YEARS DEFAULT)
4.  CLICK TRACK/JOCKEY/OWNER
5.  Under TRACK, scroll down to TODAY'S TRACK
6.  Under JOCKEY, scroll down to TODAY'S JOCKEY
7.  Click OK

The stats come up with Pletcher and Velazquez going 110-427 (26%, $1.77 ROI) at Gulfstream over the past five years.

What if we want to see how Pletcher does with another rider at Gulfstream?

1.  Click MODIFY FILTERS
2.  Click TRACK/JOCKEY/OWNER
3.  Click INCLUDE JOCKEY LIST
4.  Highlight a jockey (I chose CHRIS DECARLO)
5.  Click OK
6.  The stats come up with Pletcher and Decarlo going 34-170 (20%, $1.79 ROI) at Gulfstream over the past five years.

The more you play around with Formulator, the more confident you'll get in the program.

***

Dan,
One of the thing I noticed in this race was that several of the horses were coming off of their maiden victories. Is there any place that shows the trainer stats for first off of a maiden victory?
Normally they are horses whose chances I will dismiss but wonder which, if any, trainers have positive numbers in this regard.
mpm101

Again, let's look at Formulator.  Wednesday's "Race of the Day" (a maiden race) won't apply, so let's go for Thursday's scheduled event (Race 7 at Santa Anita).  The "Race of the Day" Formulator past performances and video analysis are available at the below link:

http://www.drf.com/#rod

Here are the steps I would use to find out a trainer's record with recent maiden winners:

1.  Click on Doug O'Neill's name (#2 Hughesy)
2.  Click MODIFY FILTERS
3.  Choose your time frame (This time, I'll scroll down to PAST TWO YEARS):
4.  Under WINNERS, ETC., scroll down to MAIDEN WINNER LAST OUT
5.  Click OK.

O'Neill is 15-107 (14%, $1.17 ROI) over the last two years with horses coming out of a maiden win.  As with the trainer/jockey statistics, you can narrow your search by playing around with the filters.

***

Didn't Da Hoss debut with 1:07 1/5 for 6 furlongs back in 1994? I know he ran that fast as a 2 year old, I just don't know if it was his debut race.
Erin

Erin,
Da Hoss ran his 107.1 in his 3rd lifetime race @Turf Paradise on 10/30/94. The (WORLD) record now is 106.49 on 11/21/09 by Twin Sparks...
Curt V.

***

I saw Manicero win an early Derby Prep then seems to have dropped of my radar.
Anybody have any news on this Florida based 3YO?
Alfredo

Manicero ran eighth in the Grade 2 Hutcheson Stakes at seven furlongs at Gulfstream on February 26 with a 55 Beyer.  He looks to be listed stakes-class at sprint distances.

***

Dan,
I might have been hibernating too long this winter but can you tell me what happened to Joe Woodard?
Bob R
P.S. Nice haircut!

Woodard has been suspended since early December for a medication violation.  His assistant, Tony Scott, has been handling the barn. 

***
Dan or anybody else
Any word on WinStar's intentions regarding my MKB horse BLUE LASER? I see that he is still in the top 20 money earners and has been working out (including a work on the turf.)
Do we think he is pointed at the Derby since he has not been racing?
Thanks
Ned Daly

Please refer to Marty McGee's story at the below link:

http://www.drf.com/news/blue-laser-will-make-3-year-old-debut-battaglia-memorial-turfway

***

dan, can i get pp's for simply majestic, restless con, never-rust, iheardavoice, paired and painted thanks again!!!
marc

The past performances you requested are available at the bottom of this blog post.

***

*LSD probably can tell us Avg field siZe for any given year by looking it up in his American Racing Manuals ?
*Speaking of books . I've been meaning to ask you how you liked the Secretariat book you were reading LSD ?
blackseabass

From the 2010 American Racing Manual:

Average Field Size:

1950 - 9.07
1955 - 9.06
1960 - 8.95
1965 - 8.59
1970 - 8.62
1975 - 8.82
1980 - 8.70
1985 - 9.03
1990 - 8.91
1991 - 8.75
1992 - 8.62
1993 - 8.56
1994 - 8.31
1995 - 8.20
1996 - 8.31
1997 - 8.20
1998 - 8.17
1999 - 8.21
2000 - 8.11
2001 - 8.18
2002 - 8.27
2003 - 8.30
2004 - 8.28
2005 - 8.17
2006 - 8.17
2007 - 8.17
2008 - 8.17
2009 - 8.24
2010 - 8.19*

While the average field size has declined slightly from 1950, the big drop off is in Average Starts Per Runner (listed below):

1950 - 10.91
1955 - 11.10
1960 - 11.31
1965 - 10.88
1970 - 10.22
1975 - 10.23
1980 - 9.21
1985 - 8.28
1990 - 7.94
1991 - 7.98
1992 - 8.03
1993 - 7.86
1994 - 7.84
1995 - 7.73
1996 - 7.59
1997 - 7.54
1998 - 7.29
1999 - 7.19
2000 - 7.10
2001 - 6.97
2002 - 6.80
2003 - 6.62
2004 - 6.57
2005 - 6.45
2006 - 6.37
2007 - 6.31
2008 - 6.20
2009 - 6.23
2010 - 6.11*

2010 Stats taken from The Jockey Club Online Fact Book.

The Secretariat book was a good, quick read.  It detailed the intense anticipation for Secretariat's first crop, the initial disappointment of the foals, and chronicled the ups-and-downs of the breeding game.  Next up is "Horse Chestnut, The Story of a Legend," by Mike de Kock.

***

In his previous blog....Runflatout. Dan was answering a question as to whether the Timely Writer Stakes on March 12 was a Graded Stakes Race. In his answer he noted that he and Mike Beer would be at Gulfstream on that day for a seminar. Those are all the details I am aware of at this time. If Dan takes me up on my breakfast and or dinner offer and you can come down and join us that would be great.
P.S.
At the present moment my plans are to go out to Gulfstream on Saturday. However, I don't plan to arrive until the start of the 7th race. I will look for you at the Tiki Bar unless you inform me that your plans have changed.
bobc

Dan,
I missed the original post. You're coming to FL? When? Where?
Laura

I'll let everyone know what our schedule is when we get closer to the date, but Mike Beer and I are still heading to Gulfstream for the Timely Writer on March 12.  Again, if any blogger is in the area that day, head on out to the track.  We'd love to chat. 
bobc, I'll write you back when I know more about our timetable.  Thanks for your kind offer.

***

Hi Dan,
I've been wondering about something for the last couple of days, and haven't seen it mentioned in any of the post-race articles I've read. Hoping you could touch on it here, and my apologies if this has been brought up earlier in the thread. My problem is this:
Soldat went into the gate showing 2/1, then came out the other side showing 7/5. How does that happen in a race as large as the FOY??? We can debate about whether Soldat deserved to be favored (I think he did), but that's not the issue here. How did Soldat drop past 9/5, 8/5, and 3/2 in the span of about 30 seconds, with that kind of money in the pool?
Discreet Picks

It wasn't me, I swear.  After I got my bet down, I greedily rubbed my hands together feeling that 2-1 represented value (I had Soldat at 3-2 on my personal odds line).  Going into the first turn, I realized my overlay was now an underlay (I'm not redboarding, blog readers know I liked Soldat, and I still lost money on the weekend with my other awful selections). 
How does this happen?  Either somebody dropped a ton of money on this horse, or something more nefarious was responsible (like past-posting).  I'll think positively, and guess there were some whales that believed that 2-1 was a good price with 0 minutes to post, and bet accordingly.

***

Dan, or anyone, I can't imagine that Florida, or any state, doesn't have a regulation such as this in California:
1692. Requirements for Horse, Trainer and Jockey.
Each horse starting in a race must be qualified for that race, ready to run, in physical condition to
exert its best effort, and entered with the intention to win.
As pertains to the Mott horse over the weekend and the subsequent NYT article, I wonder what your feelings/thoughts are on this longstanding tradition of "giving the horse a race or two?"
I have no memory of any trainer being in any way reprimanded for sending out a short or not well-meant horse anywhere, anytime, although jockeys, some more than others, have been sat down for things like "not persevering" etc.
Most realists understand that this occurs at every single level of the game every single day of the year, but why even have a regulation like that if it's NEVER going to be enforced?
thanks
pe

The NY Time reports Mott gave JV instructions -"Don't do too much" on To Honor and Serve. Mott was upfront before the race that To Honor and Serve was not ready. Given that,
it seems that alot of money, apparently money from people who did not know (uneducated money ?), or did not care, went ahead and wagered on To Honor and Serve to win. To Honor and Serve went of at 1.70 -1. It would have been lower than that, if a ton of money had not been dumped on Soldat at the last minute. Was 1.70-1 fair value, when the trainer said before the race, that he was not ready? Or was it poor handicapping, by those who bet To Honor and Serve to win?
chicago gerry

pe, it's a good point, and you're right that it happens every single day at every racetrack in the country.  But it's almost impossible to necessarily prove that a horse wasn't cranked up fully to win.  Mott, at least before the race, informed the public that the horse was short.  It's quite possible, however, that he believed that he could win with 80% in the tank.  Did he intend to win the race?  The major goal was to get a good run from To Honor and Serve, but I believe, wholeheartedly, that he wanted to win. 
This is one of those "let the buyer beware" cases that might not look so great to non-racing fans.  But, historically, some of the top graded winners were "raced into shape" by their connections.  The mighty Kelso almost always needed a start before he got going for the year.  On January 30, 1963, he finished fourth at 2-1 odds in the seven-furlong Palm Beach Handicap at Hialeah.  The following May (off a six-month freshening), he ran eighth at 17-10 to kick off his season in the seven-furlong Los Angeles Handicap.  In 1965, following a similar six-month break, he ran third at 1-2 odds in an allowance race at six furlongs.  Did his connections intend to win those races?  I'm sure they thought his class could overcome the rust, but the main goal was to get him ready for something else.
As for how this affects the player, well, one could analyze trainer patterns to see if the barn has their better horses cranked off the layoff.  Or, they could go by the old stand-by, that "if it looks like a skunk, and smells like a skunk, then it's a skunk."
Why does the rule exist if it isn't going to be enforced?  A jockey, if he's set down for "not persevering," may say that the horse wasn't ready to run.  That might spark an investigation on whether a trainer sent out a sound horse that was in the correct physical condition to compete, if not outright win.

***

Dan,
Was thinking about the La Canada and have questions about my thinking , answered at your convenience, if you so choose.
Meathead caught him in the exacta, but very few Formbloggers picked up on Little Mike in our conversations about this race. We have a talented group here lead by, and including yourself.
I don't think Mike Beer even picked up on this one, not totally sure but; WHY?
The final times for the La Canada were blistering. IMO, a speed did not develop in this race
at least in the way we usually think of them. IMO, front runners can and many times will win a 1 mile grass race. Closers and stalkers don't necessarily have an advantage in a 1 mile grass race, but handicappers in general are always looking for the stalker or closer to run down the speed in a 1 mile grass race to the detriment of the handicapper.
What I was thinking is, potential speed duals developing in a grass race are less likely than in dirt races. And, as a rule, handicappers overemphasize potential speed duals developing in grass races in general at a mile or more.
Was wondering what you think about the La Canada in genera,l and if you think my thoughts on
speed in a 1 mile grass races have any merit.
Thanks, Dan

Why didn't I like Little Mike in the Canadian Turf?  Bad handicapping compounded by bad pace analysis.  I, like many other handicappers, felt that there were other early speed horses that could compromise Little Mike.  I really thought that stretchout sprinter China would be a pace factor (really, how else could he win on paper?), but he didn't show anything and Little Mike grabbed the front, and free-wheeled through quick fractions. 
It may be a valid point that speed duels occur less frequently in turf routes as jockeys are intent on saving something for the all-important last quarter-mile.  Still, I would handicap each race on a case-by-case basis.

***

LDS
I asked in a earlier post about a horse called Rots a Ruck and I guess you did not see it. if you have any PPs of this horse who ran in the late 70s to the 80s would you please post them for me. thanks dan does any one else remember this horse? good luck all MH01

The past performances for Rotsa Ruck are available at the bottom of this blog post.  I'm not sure if it's the one you're looking for.

***

Hey Dan,
*Who is the best older horse in the east for this year and who do you think we should keep and eye on coming off their 3 yo season?
Did you get to see Christmas for Liam's race at Gulfstream on Sunday and what did you think of his performance? What was his beyer figure?
*Hi Dan,
I hope you had a profitable weekend, do you have any statistics on the type of pace that is most advantageous to run on turf 2 turn routes depending on the temp rail placement? For example if the rail at say 24 ft favors speed, does the rail at further out distances magnify that advantage and do you feel that the rail has any effect on sprints? Also when you put your money down who are your top 5 jockeys on the lawn?
Thanks as always,
Don

It's such a wide-open and weak division on the East Coast that anyone can be the leader.  In alphabetical order, I would consider Fly Down, Giant Oak, Haynesfield, Morning Line, Rule, and Successful Dan.  I guess I Want Revenge, Apart, Tackleberry, Demarcation, and Mission Impazible could be on the radar as well.  They still need to sort themselves out. 
My sleeper is Winslow Homer.  I know that he's coming off a major injury, but he's working at Oaklawn Park and has talent.
Christmas for Liam earned a 95 Beyer for his win on Sunday, and I liked his race.  Off the layoff, he took a good bump at the start, and tracked the pace along the rail over a dirt strip that favored early speed.  John Velazquez was aggressive with Christmas for Liam on the backstretch, splitting horses to battle for the lead, and he took over at will on the turn.  He's not the prettiest mover in the world as he paddles badly with his left foreleg, but there's potential if he stays sound.

I'm not a big analyst of jockeys so I'm probably the worst person in the world to give an opinion on my favorite grass riders.  If I like the horse, I bet the horse.
There is a TEMPORARY RAIL SETTING option in the Formulator past performances where you can review results.  Also, you can go back through the charts to review running styles of turf races with the rails at x amount of feet out.  Again, I don't pay too much attention to the rail settings unless I've seen evidence of a strong bias.

***

The CHART from the San Vicente "The Factor" win looks impressive. BUT, the TIME shown on the
video is way more. Is the chart wrong about the splits and final time??
Paul

Paul , they had a clock malfunction that day I believe. The chart is right.
bsb

***

Dan,
After spending about an hour trying to find something suitable, I think that I want to use Thursday Race 5 at Santa Anita. The way the weather has been in "Sunny" CA, I may regret picking a grass race, but let's give it a shot.
Thanks again for the prize.
Yogi

Congrats to Yogi for finishing first in last week's HandiGambling exercise.  Yogi picks the fifth race at Santa Anita for this week's contest.

PAST PERFORMANCES ARE AVAILABLE AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS BLOG POSTING

Remember that you have a mythical $100 with which to wager on the race, and the entrant with the highest money total will receive a "Monthly Enhanced 60-Card Past Performance Plan." Anyone going over the $100 limit will be disqualified. Please post your plays and analysis to the blog. In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference. One entry per person please. I reserve the right to approve or deny any entries.

I know that there is a time issue for some of you, but let's remember why we began the HandiGambling races in the first place. The goal was to share ideas on why we like these horses, and why we're betting them the way we are. I'm not asking for a novel, but if you could spare a sentence or two outlining your handicapping angles, and thought processes about wagering, it would be appreciated.


Some thoughts on the HandiGambling.  While I understand that the prize has, perhaps, changed the way some commenters approach the exercise, I have gone back through the last few posts, and see that the majority of the HandiGambling entrants give concise, reasonable analyses for their selections.  Some may merely post numbers, but there have been several excellent ideas brought forth by the players, and we could all learn something from a different point of view.  My current goal for the HandiGambling exercise is four-fold.

1.  The original goal of HandiGambling (to share ideas on handicapping a particular race, and how we're betting that race).
2.  To attract new players to the sport by giving them an opportunity to analyze free past performances, and try their hand at constructing wagers.
3.  To thank all of you for your commitment to FormBlog by offering a prize that may benefit a member of our loyal community.
4.  The most important goal of all.  To HAVE FUN!  We all work hard, and have problems and stresses.  We also love horse racing.  Let's enjoy the weekly challenge of solving the HandiGambling puzzle.  Let's all be public handicappers for a day. 
Let's all rejoice that we are some of the fortunate few that realize this game is the best in the world. 

Best of luck to all.

AttachmentSize
Canadian champs.pdf58.43 KB
Marc5.pdf101.81 KB
Rotsa Ruck.pdf42.81 KB
HG223.pdf191.71 KB
Sunrise Smarty.pdf615.26 KB
blackseabass More than 1 year ago
VQ, DOSAGE. BEBC , You rememember incorrectly. Real Quiet DI 5.33 CD 1.05 . Strike the Gold was the horse who's number was adjusted downward when Alydar became a Chef De Race. At some point when Birdstone becomes a Chef De Race ( I believe he will if he survives) then Mine That Bird and Summer Bird will be adjusted to reflect that change .Summer Bird was DI 2.56 CD 0.69 . MTB was DI 5.40 CD 1.19 Dosage is not ABSOLUTE . Its quite a bit more accurate than VOODOO though. FREAKS occasionally come along and win 10f or longer races with high numbers. Occasionally !! They don't usually do it more than once. Real Quiet won TWO 10 f races in his career. The Derby & the Hollywood Gold Cup. He is the exception to the rule. Other FREAKS that won (A)10f race . Bertrando (1) Skywalker (1) Wild Again (1) Holy Bull (1) Giacomo (1) Charismatic (1) Commendable (1) Sarava (1) Rail Trip (1) Ruhlman (1) Since Unbridled won the Derby 50 % of Derby winners have had a DI of 2.60 or less. 76% have had a DI of 3.67 or less. 18 / 21 85 % had a CD of 1.00 or less. Median DI 2.61 CD 0.71 The Belmont . Over the same period of time 19 / 21 - 90 % of Belmont winners had a DI of 4.00 or less. 15 /21 - 71 % had a DI of 3.00 or less . 80 % had a CD of 0.90 or less. Median DI 2.72 CD 0.75 50 % , 76 %, 85 % , 90 % , 71 % , 80 % not exactly VOODOO type numbers. Dubai World Cup 93 % of winners had less than 4.00 DI . All but one. 86 % had CD of .90 or less. Median DI 2.28 CD 0.57 Pacific Classic 95 % had DI of 4.00 or less . 90 % had DI of 3.00 or Less . Median DI 2.33 CD 0.67 Big 'Cap 89 % since 1984 DI less than 4.00 . 85 % DI of 3.00 or less. Median DI 2.44 CD 0.71. Hollywood Gold Cup since '84 . 82 % DI of 3.00 or less. Median DI 2.32 CD 0.71 BC Classic since '84 . 89 % DI less than 4.00 . 65 % DI of 3.00 or less. Median DI 2.53 CD 0.67. Jockey Club Gold Cup since '84 100% DI of 4.00 or less . 73 % DI of 3.00 or less. Median DI 2.51 CD 0.68 . Travers since '84 92 % DI of 4.00 or less. 70 % DI of 3.00 or less. Median DI 2.64 CD 0.69 . BC Turf 12 F 100 % had a DI of 3.00 or less. 78 % had a DI of 2.00 or less. Median DI 1.34 CD 0.39 San Juan Capistrano 14 F 100 % had DI of 3.00 or less. 86 % had DI of 2.09 or less. Median DI 1.27 CD 0.16 Now , I could put the numbers up for races from the Melbourne Cup to the Derby if I want to spend the time . I did it last year . There isn't much point because when people get in the mood to go into DENIAL of reality then they will do so no matter what the numbers say. They'll get cute and say stuff like numbers lie. Etc . Numbers don't lie . I included the BC turf 12 F & SJC handicap 14 F to illustrate how the numbers get smaller the longer the distance . Those aren't anomalies nothing has been CHERRY PICKED . It is the way that it is. I have numbers for sprint races and middle distances as well. They CLEARLY indicate that the shorter the distance the higher the AVG & Median numbers are. I chose to cut off in 1984 because thats the year the BC started . If I went back to '84 for the Derby /Belmont than the numbers would look even stronger for those races. VQ, Its your choice. You can believe somebody that is GUESSING or you can believe somebody that has the FACTS at their disposal. I know what I'd do in that situation. Its easy to take a stand against something with rhetoric unsubstantiated with fact. Its harder to gather facts to support an argument, especially if the facts inconveniently contradict your argument as the FACTS do for anyone claiming Dosage is VOODOO.
leo More than 1 year ago
HG Looks like a great race to play in those handicapping contests,...the two speeds (Rule the Storm, Beautiful American) both want the front end and when they get loose are hard to run down, but today they should knocks heads today. the other closers (Entabeni- stretching out, Patsy's LilBuddy-wins at distance cold trainer, Hameildaeme-serious drop but cold trainer) so it leaves me searching the remaining animals.. So i come up with Nasiriyah"s Song- lightly raced, third off layoff with new trainer and i trainer stat with Blanc up has big roi. so in the contests this could be the breaker...and a ducet or two would bring back a big return 100 win Nasiriyah's Song (4)
John N. More than 1 year ago
Annie, Thanks for letting me know about Crossbow's injury. I was trying to figure out how to handle him in the Gotham. Before the Hutcheson, I somehow thought just about the same things that McLaughlin later stated. The race just didn't set up well for Crossbow. But, I was thinking that he might be able to get the jump on the Gotham field at 5-1 or so. This horse was well managed by McLaughlin and the fact that Darley kept him, instead of relegating him to Shadwell. Hopefully he still has a future as a power sprinter with some of Bernardini's staying ability. Thanks again, John N.
TejanoRun More than 1 year ago
Jonah, I don't want to invade Mike A's turf, nor do I want to unnecessarily complicate things, but today's HG exercise offers a fantastic opportunity to illustrate some of the principles that Mike is talking about. Of course after seeing his picks for this race...I'm gonna pick on one... I too am one of the "old guys" (at 48) who uses the DRF variant in the handicapping process. It's important to recognize when the running line times indicate a track or course is playing too fast or too slow. I use the DRF variant as I have neither the time nor inclination to calculate a variant for every track every day, and though it's not perfect, I think the DRF variant is still better than disregarding entirely. [Scoffers abound, I know, just bear with me here.] Also, a common handicapping principle is that one length = 1/5 of a second and that's just fine for our analysis. *** PACE: The general consensus of Formbloggers here and handicappers in general is that a speed dual will ensue between # 7 RULE THE STORM and # 9 BEAUTIFUL AMERICAN. That's because each of these horses shows a lot of 1's in their respective running lines. They both like to be in front in the first half and beyond of nearly every race, and each appears to need the lead in order to run its best race. Look at the two recent turf races for BEAUTIFUL. On Jan17, she ran fractions (as the leader) of 48 1/5 and 1:12 1/5. An average turf route variant for SA is probably around 14, but on this day the DRF variant shows 19. Assuming the 19 number is close to accurate, this indicates that the course times for turf routes were slower than normal this day, by a full second [19 - 14 = 5 fifths of a second]. Accordingly, I am adjusting BEAUTIFUL's times. I'm going to reduce her half-mile fraction by 2/5 of a second and her 6f fraction by 3/5 of a second, and I come up with a comparative pace of 47 4/5 and 1:11 3/5 for her on Jan17. I'd say that's about average for 1 1/8 SA turf, maybe a tad fast, but certainly not real fast. Now look at her Dec2 race at HOL. Fractions are 47 1/5 and 1:11. An average turf route variant for HOL is probably around 13, but on this day the DRF variant shows 10. Now this would indicate the course times for turf routes were about 3/5 of a second faster than normal [13 - 10], so I am going to adjust the times by increasing her half-mile by 2/5 of a second and her 6f fraction by 3/5. [Not going to complicate things by explaining how this was done.] My comparative pace for this race is now 47 3/5 and 1:11 3/5. That's average for 1m HOL turf. My rule of thumb is that when the DRF variant is higher than average (taken on a track by track basis), the times are artificially slow, so in order to evenly compare, compensate by subtracting time. Alternately, when the DRF variant is lower than average, the times are quicker than normal, so I add time to compensate. Okay, let's look at the other speed horse, RULE THE STORM. Start with two races back, the Jan7 race. She ran fractions of 47 and 1:11 1/5. DRF variant is 15, just a tad slower than normal. You may not want to make any adjustment to fractions since it's pretty close to the average daily variant, but I decided to subtract 1/5 of a second from her 6f fraction. I gave her 47 and 1:11. Average for 1m SA turf. Now look at her recent 2/6/11 race. Fractions of 46 and 1:10 1/5 in a stakes race. DRF variant is 19. Even if the DRF variant is wrong, she still smoked and dueled 46! I did adjust for the variant however and gave her a comparative pace of 45 2/5 and 1:09 2/5, even more dazzling. It's no wonder she couldn't keep going that fast and weakened in the stretch. That's a pretty fast pace here, tailor made for one-dimensional closers like # 5 PATSY'S LIL BUDDY! Will there be a speed dual today? I'm going to say no, because RULE has already proven she can go 46 and faster while BEAUTIFUL hasn't. Her dirt race two back doesn't count. I think RULE gets an uncontested lead. And with class relief she should beat this field...but there is the pesky come home time to worry about. *** COME HOME TIMES: I can't remember when I first started focusing on turf routes. I think I had read a book by Bill Heller, maybe it was Overlay Overlay, that talked about turf races. In theory, turf races run in the European style of a group of horses running in a pack for half the race and then it turns into a sprint to the finish; hence, an emphasis on a good turn of foot and being able to "come home" quickly. For the past decade or so, I have worked on quantifying these concepts, incorporating closing speed ideas from Tom Brohamer's work - actually how many feet per second a horse is running - and fine tuning the figures by adjusting for pace, lengths behind, turf variant, and track to track comparisons, etc. Essentially, I average two numbers. One is the "turn time" from the 1/2 mile to 3/4. The other is closing speed from 3/4 mile to the finish. Anyway, RULE THE STORM was obviously compromised in her last by using too much energy early, so she ran out of gas in the stretch. Mike A looks for a final quarter in 24 or better, a very good rule of thumb. The final quarter in her last race was 25 3/5! That is calculated by looking at the final quarter time of 24 4/5 second [i.e. 1:35 final time minus 1:10 1/5 6f time] and adding the gain or loss in lengths in that final quarter. RULE THE STORM went from being on the lead to losing by 3 3/4 lengths; therefore we add 1/5 of a second for each beaten length, so 24 4/5 AND 4/5 second = a come home time for her of 25 3/5. That's not so hot, but again, she was cookin' early. Take a look at #8 ROLLERSKATES. On 1/17, the aforementioned BEAUTIFUL AMERICAN set an average pace and ROLLERSKATES made a nice move on the turn, gaining two lengths in a 24 second quarter between the 1/2 mile and 3/4 mile calls, and then finishing evenly. She was more impressive in her two previous turf races. The 11/04 race had a final quarter mile time of 23 4/5 seconds. In addition, ROLLERSKATES gained 3 1/2 lengths from 3/4 pole to finish, giving her a come home time better than 23 1/5 seconds. And at DMR on 8/13 in which the pace of that one was soft, she gained four lengths in the final 3/16 which had a solid time of 29 1/5 (exceeds Mike benchmark of 30). Finally, let's take a look at # 5 PATSY'S LIL BUDDY. She can close from well back, evidenced in her 2/6/11 and 12/11/10 races. But look at the fractions. Those were fast up front, so a deep closer like PATSY should be coming home fast in those types of races. That doesn't impress me. Find me a closer who makes up ground despite slow fractions and I'll be impressed. She raced fairly evenly in the race in between, 12/27/10 the pace was slowed, but it would have been nice if she gained some ground there. I'm gonna put her in my one-dimensional closer file (where Slambino resides).
Van Savant More than 1 year ago
HandiGambling 223 With the scratch of the #9, that leaves RULE THE STORM (#7) to rule the pace. Pace makes the race. ENTABENI (#1) and PATSY’S LIL BUDDY (#5) both have decent chances for the Place. $50 to Win on the 7 $25 Exacta - 7w/1,5 Thanks Dan. I appreciate all that you do for us here.
Dick W More than 1 year ago
Annie Looking at the entries for the Gotham this weekend reminded me of last year's Gotham. The winner was Awesome Act who at that time had not been claimed as an MKB horse. So I asked for him and he became my Derby horse. He then ran an uninspiring 3rd in the Wood about 10 lengths behind Eskendreya. He had a few supporters in the Derby as he went off about 12 to 1 I think. But he finished next to last and has not run since. I noticed that he has worked at SA 3 times in the past 3 months, but I have no idea if they are planning on bringing him back to the races. His works did not look so good. Anyway, I see there is a horse named Dawly in the Gotham this year. He is also by Awesome Again and has won his last 2 races. Curious to see how he does. It is looking to me like my slow poke Brethren will end up in the Tampa Bay Derby although they have still not committed. You know, of course, that I am only calling him a slow poke to try to boost his odds so that I can put some real $$$ on him. He has really not yet been tested and I am looking forward to his next race to try to get a realistic picture of where he fits. Thanks again for Brethren and all the work you (and SR) do with the MKB program. Dick W
chicago gerry More than 1 year ago
HG 223 Santa Anita I looked at what I thought where some of these would want be and could be throughout the running of the race, the class of the individuals, and trainer /jockey combinations. Am thinking about the claimed runner Rollerblades might be the spoiler for what I came up with. Some of these runners have an advantage in terms of money earned and wins at the distance. Found it easy to eliminate some this time. $5 Superfectas 7 / 9,10 / 1,5,8,/ 5,9,10 =$50 9,10 /7 / 1,5,8 / 5,9,10 =$50
Turfmeister Maz More than 1 year ago
Wonderful racing on Super Thursday at Meydan in Dubai. Great analysis and insight from DRF's Alan Shuback. HG 223 at Santa Anita. Great wagering race. #9 Beautiful American. Like the rest, works and shortening up her route. Gomez in the irons. $6 WIN. $12 PLACE. $18 SHOW. #10 Hameildaeme [GB]. Like her speed at the distance, last two speed numbers, and her works. $6 PLACE. $12 SHOW. #7 Rule the Storm. Highest speed number at the distance along with four wins. $6 SHOW. #5 Patsy's Lil Baby and #8 Rollerskates also look ready to be in the overall mix. EXOTICS $3 Exacta: #9, #10 / #9, #10, #7, #5, #8. $5 Trifecta: #9 / #10 / #7. 10 CENT Superfecta: #9, #10 / #9, #10, #7, #5, #8 / #9, #10, #7. #5. #8 / #9, #10, #7, #5, #8. Good Luck to All !!!
Yogi More than 1 year ago
This is a WIP. I didn't know if anyone might find any value in it or not, but HG seemed appropriate place to demo. Final 1/4 is measured in seconds. All other figures are Feet Per Second.(Some folks swear by them. Not totally convinced myself.) Early Pace is for 1/2 mile Sustained Pace is the average of Early and Final Pace Final is for last 1/4 (or distance converted to 1/4) Average is the average for Average(weird huh?) and Early ..........................Final 1/4..........Early Pace......Sustained........Final.........Avg Pace #1 Entabeni............N/A...................N/A.................N/A..........................N/A #2Elle Pickle..............25.05...........58.07..............55.38............52.70..........56.73 #3Unknown Heat.......26.19...........58.01..............54.20….......50.40............56.11 #4Nasiriyah's Song....26.88............56.17..............52.64..........49.12............54.41 #5Patsy's Lil Buddy...24.63............58.50…..........56.04...........53.58............57.27 #6No Ka Oi..............N/A..................N/A.................N/A......................................N/A. #7Rule The Storm.......25.42............57.39..............54.66..........51.92............56.02 #8Rollerskates.............24.52............55.15...............54.22.........53.29............54.69 #9Beautiful American.24.61............54.77..............53.94...........53.11............54.36 #10Hameildaeme........23.86............56.71...............56.02..........53.32............56.36 #11Ellie L....................24.71............55.89...............54.66............53.42.............55.27
Curt V. More than 1 year ago
HG223@SA Turf, Since I can't wait for the procrastinators to post the race changes, & I bet the #12{also eligible} in a series of bets w/2 others, & I'm going out for today; I will amend my bets as follows: $100 Straight Exacta> #5 Patsy's Lil Buddy/ over/ #8 Rollerskates> These are the same 2 others I bet in my previous bet on 3/2/11 @ 4:50PM--a new pace scenario w/o the #12..analysis was given there.. $100 Straight Exacta>5/8......sorry for any confusion..But, don't blame me..I tried.......
chicago gerry More than 1 year ago
Dan, Thanks for your response regarding the Canadian Turf. I agree, many handicappers thought a pace dual would develop. Most importantly I think you are correct about looking at grass races, one case at a time. In looking at today's 1 mile grass race, and I am seeing some of the same arguments emerge for this 1 mile run on grass at SA, but not as many. A little different scenario, different participants and maybe a different way of looking at things. Also in retrospect, looking at the manner in which I posed my original question, it seems to me that I came across as a little bit americashorseazzion. That was not my intent. Sorry. On the other-hand, having said that, just why was it you did not come up with Mine That Bird for the Kentucky Derby a few years ago. Huh? (I mean, rhetorically speaking). Thanks, Dan.