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Figs and Props
Here's a little Beyer Speed Figure scorecard for this year's prospective Derby field and last year's edition:
And if that's not enough food for thought, here are some Derby-related proposition bets being posted on Bodog.com:
Will there be a Triple Crown Winner in US Thoroughbred Racing in 2008
How long will the performance of "My Old Kentucky Home" be?
Over 3 minutes
Under 3 minutes
Will the crowd attendance exceed that of the 156,635 of 2007?
Will Big Brown or his jockey Kent Desormeaux display sponsorship logos of UPS during the race?
Will Big Brown win the Kentucky Derby leading "wire-to-wire"?
What will the odds of Big Brown be at post time in the Kentucky Derby?
Over 7/2 EVEN
Under 7/2 -140
How many lengths will the winner of the 134th Kentucky Derby win by?
More than 2 lengths 11/10
2 lengths 7/1
Less than 2 lengths 11/10
Will George Steinbrenner be at the Derby and shown on NBC?
Will the winning jockey take a flying jump off his mount in the winner's circle, in the same style as Frankie Dettori?
Will the winner of the 134th Kentucky Derby win the 133rd Preakness Stakes?
Will the winner of the 134th Kentucky Derby win the 140th Belmont Stakes?
Will the winner of the 134th Kentucky Derby be bred in Kentucky?
Will 20 horses start?
Which will pay more the winner of the Kentucky Oaks or Kentucky Derby?
Kentucky Derby -140
Kentucky Oaks EVEN
Will the filly Eight Belles run in the Kentucky Derby or Kentucky Oaks?
Kentucky Derby +170
Kentucky Oaks -240
Will the filly Proud Spell run in the Kentucky Derby or Kentucky Oaks?
Kentucky Derby +250
Kentucky Oaks -350
What will be the winner of the 134th Kentucky Derby's starting gate?
Gates 1-5 1/1
Gates 6-10 5/4
Gates 11-15 9/2
Gates 16-20 7/1
Winning Time in the 2008 Kentucky Derby (G1) Churchill Downs
Under 2.01.30 EVEN
Over 2.01.30 -140
What will the Kentucky Derby Mutuel Win pay?
Will the winner of the 134th Kentucky Derby complete the race faster than the 2:02.17 time of Street Sense in 2007?
How many scratches will there be in the 134th Kentucky Derby?
0 Horses 1/1
1 Horse 1/1
2 Horses 15/2
3 Horses 25/1
More than 3 Horses 80/1
Will a horse trained by Todd Pletcher, capture the Kentucky Derby?
What will be the time of the first ¼ mile?
Over 0:22.50 -150
Under 0:22.50 +110
What will the total on-track wagering handle of the Kentucky Derby be?
Over 12 Million Dollars -140
Under 12 Million Dollars EVEN
I agree with callmetony, Col. John is not a throwaway. I think the problem is not with the horse but Beyer and his speed ratings. Col. John and Big Brown ran the mile and an eighth the last time at the same speed to the second decimal place, 1:48.16. This is the best of any of this field at the distance, but Big Brown's run in the Florida Derby gets a Beyer of 106 while Col. John gets a 95. The Beyer speed rating rates Col. John as running more than two seconds (11 lengths) slower! Mayby Andrew believes his own ratings which is why he does so poorly handicaping the Derby. His columns get predictable. If his horse wins, it's another Secretariat. If a horse he likes wins, it is a great Derby. If (the more likely outcome), his horse does badly, it is another example of how poor the current stock of two year olds are even if the winner comes within a second of Big Red's record. You figure!
To Bochall: Don't worry about COURT VISION being an underlay. Lots of people read these blogs and play for $2.00.So, watch the odds on The King and His COURT. Your DENIS OF CORK is a good choice. You could reverse an exactor with COURT VISION and collect bigtime. If you seem to think COURT VISION can't get his picture taken, you could play dollar trifectas like this: $50.00 on CV onto Quick-pik onto QP Same money on QP-CV-QP Same money on QP-QP-CV Cost is $150.00, but you get 150 tickets, and if CV is in the money you collect, perhaps major money. Good luck. I'm still waiting for more info, but the chats are another source. Beyer last night threw out Colonel John, which was a smart idea. He might win, but Andy was strictly playing the law of averages, which is what I do. There has been a lot of bitching about the Campbell soup can tracks, but I go a different route. I try to take advantage of plays like Colonel John, and like Beyer, play the law of averages that he will be worse than 4th.
If you believe in bounce theory I have a bridge I`d love to sell you.
Coachie--I'm already on board with your boycott of CDI tracks(actually I stated all Kentucky tracks). I'm sure my track buds have already laid odds on when I'll crack, I won't. Hope more on this and the other board will boycott also--it's the only way folks. Mr. Crist--Are you silently banging your head against the wall with the opening cards at Belmont? Your favorite race, turf sprints are back! Two today(maybe they are off turf?) and three tomorrow. Hope it doesn't ruin your "Derby buzz". I think you mentioned last year, something about trying to figure them out. Any luck? Well, best of luck this week and the Belmont meet(it's going to get 90% of my bankroll this summer since I can't bet Churchill). On the Derby, is it just me, or is Court Vision becoming the worst sucker bet(everybody's wiseguy pick)? I went to the backside yesterday(Tuesday) and got talking with one of the older fellas working in Mott's barn, I initially asked if Quite A Bride was there, he said she had been retired and bred(to who?), anyway, out of the blue he states, points over his shoulder "right there is the best horse in the barn!" Anyone wanna guess who it was? Later....
Well, there goes my play on Court Vision. I have already read 8 or more comments touting him, which ensures underlaid odds on a horse who is TOO SLOW TO WIN. He was my exotics bomb but the wise guy horse always falters at underlaid odds. Denis Of Cork is the one who is rebounding and can run well at great odds. Didn't the Sheets say a bounce was coming in Illinois? Rebound at CD????
To c: If you read my info re the reins, this was only to be used after a winning stake race. So, if Gomez wins a stake in a race right before the Derby, he is extra special in the Derby itself. If he wins on Court Vision (looks like he will), then play in race right after Derby. You might make fun of this plan, but Prado won 3 in a row in one of the large preps.I am known to be very tight with a dollar, and do not like to bet money from my wallet.So, if I do, I have done lots of homework to justify opening up the dusty old wallet. Glad to see two of you are now coming into my camp re COURT VISION. However, it may be too late. I have a relative who works at the mutuels at CD, and paid him well to block all bets on COURT VISION. Except mine, of course. I have never been as sure about a nag before.I have tried to find ways to stay off him, but can't do it. Played him in future book at 18-1 for $100.00. Now am working on exotics. If he loses, he was still a good bet. Maybe he gets blocked, etc. I see him as looping the field coming into the stretch, and picking up horses on the outside just in time to nip the filly (40-1) at the wire. I also have made overtures to write the same column for 2 papers as I did in Steve's blog.This column is titled Flip Dawson at The Kentucky Derby. So, it's been lots of fun this week. To those who still say that flip is off the wall, remember my past life as Turf Accountant. Gave me lots of knowledge that I never forgot.If you don't know what a Turf Accountant is, check with your local Highway Patrol.
Colonel John.Since his sire is TIZNOW.11/4 miles is the ideals distanced. It's boughts back, the most sweetest memorable i was ever had.he was out dueled Giantcauseaways Every steps of the ways durinig the stretch runs onBC classic2000.Now i'd hopping Corey NAKA.Would be likes Great CHRIS McCARRON.Great $$$ rider(placed every horses in great positions).Last but not least.Should not Whipping C J from the left hand.C J was swerved-outs badly in the SA handicap.Til he was changing to the right..WOW..sayonara..(notes:by the ways Corey's good @Scrapping, the paint.Shuffle back and wait for ,for for,,??? =TRASHED THE TICKETS.
Steve, Recapturetheglory - i think this one can hang around near the wire. In the hawthorne derby he ran away from the field like he was racing the clock.
Steve, Which of the props in your estimation offers the greatest value?
Steve - Great blog and great info on the prop bets...would love to make them or any bets on the Derby, but unless the parties in the ADW mess get it together I will be stuck!!! Isn't it ironic that today the CDI President Bob Evans said that ADW was "a major growth channel for pari-mutuel wagering, as well as a means to drive traffic to the racetrack" and yet most of the people who can bet online legally (as of now) will not have access to wager on racing's premier day? It is especially frustrating for those of us who have both become accustomed to wagering online and do not live near a track to be at the mercy of these myopic executives who apparently know little about the game they are destroying. Dan San Francisco