DRF.com Blogs: Randy Moss

DRF.com Blogs: Randy Moss http://www.drf.com/blogs/438/feed en Hangin' with The Boss http://www.drf.com/blogs/hangin-boss

What was the last true live TV interview granted by George Steinbrenner? Very possibly, it could have been about his racehorses and not his beloved New York Yankees.

Wed, 14 Jul 2010 03:08:19 +0000 Randy Moss 927 at http://www.drf.com What was the last true live TV interview granted by George Steinbrenner? Very possibly, it could have been about his racehorses and not his beloved New York Yankees. Five years ago, Steinbrenner's homebred Bellamy Road was the favorite for the Kentucky Derby. Naturally, everyone wanted to interview The Boss. But ESPN requests for print or TV interviews were referred to his Kinsman Farm in Ocala, where his people confirmed Steinbrenner would indeed attend the Derby but would conduct absolutely no interviews of any kind.<a href="http://www.drf.com/blogs/hangin-boss" target="_blank">read more</a> A question for the pace handicappers among you http://www.drf.com/blogs/question-pace-handicappers-among-you Tue, 29 Jun 2010 18:30:27 +0000 Randy Moss 45495 at http://www.drf.com &#0160;&#0160; For the last month, I&#39;ve been working on an upgrade to the Moss Pace Figures.&#0160; It is more of a statistical fine tuning than an overhaul.&#0160; But in trying to reconcile database numbers with common-sense handicapping, I again came up against a dilemma that might be of interest to pacefig junkies, whether you prefer my pace numbers or anyone else&#39;s. &#0160;&#0160; My usual warning prior to these kinds of blog entries:&#0160; this is not light reading for the casual horseplayer.&#0160; This is definitely &quot;inside baseball&quot; stuff, as they say. &#0160;&#0160;&#0160; First, some background.&#0160; One of my goals in the creation of Moss Pace Figures was to give horseplayers &quot;true&quot; numbers that maintain integrity over all distances.&#0160; Most pace figure methods use time charts based on pars for each class and distance, so that if Monmouth $20,000 claiming races for older males at 6 furlongs average fractions of :22.2 and :45.1 and a final time of 1:10.3 (which is exactly what they do average, by the way), the pace line for those clockings could be, say, 88-88-88, signifying that the pace and final time are exactly in line with par.&#0160; A 93-92-85 pace line would indicate at a glance that the quarter-mile and half-mile pace was faster than par, and the final time slightly slower than par. There is much to be said for this simplicity.&#0160; But I don&#39;t do this.&#0160; My problem with this style of pace figures is that the accuracy begins to diminish when horses switch distances: a $20,000 claimer who runs at a par pace at 5 furlongs almost always has more speed than a $20,000 claimer who runs at a par pace at 1 mile, yet in the above methodology their pacefigs might be identical.&#0160; I&#39;ll admit Moss Pace Figures aren&#39;t as easy to compare against par -- but - and I hope this makes sense - when I&#39;m trying to ascertain if a horse can make an uncontested early lead in a race, I prefer pacefigs that tell me with clarity that a 90 is a faster performance than an 85, regardless of pars and distances. To get there, I have overloaded Daily Racing Form&#39;s system by collecting data from tens of thousands of races at dozens of racetracks at all distances, and based my figures on what the numbers told me. &#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160; As I said, I&#39;m preparing to update Moss Pace Figures soon to reflect new numbers. No one will ever accuse me of skimping on data. For example, I recently lumped into Excel spreadsheets 101,844 races from one-mile ovals at Beulah, Calder, Churchill, Emerald, Fair Grounds, Fairmount, Finger Lakes, Hawthorne, Hoosier, Lone Star, Louisiana Downs, Meadowlands, Monmouth, Mountaineer, Oaklawn, Philadelphia Park, Pimlico, Prairie Meadows, Remington, Retama, River Downs, Sam Houston, Suffolk, Sunland, Tampa Bay Downs, Thistledown, Turf Paradise - and even pre-synthetic races from Santa Anita, Del Mar, Turfway, Woodbine and Golden Gate, and pre-renovation races from Gulfstream.&#0160; That&#39;s quite a contrast from the old pre-computer days of Picking Winners, when Andy Beyer came up with his figures by holing up with a poster board, Flair pens and a bottle of Jack Daniels.&#0160;&#0160; &#0160;&#0160;&#0160; From that cross-section of major- and not-so-major racing, here&#39;s what the number crunching showed:&#0160; At 5 1-2 furlongs, races that averaged a final number of 88 on my number scale (slightly more truncated than the Beyer Speed Figure scale we&#39;re familiar with) had a paceline like this: 87-88-88.&#0160; At 6 furlongs, the national average paceline was 85-87-88.&#0160;&#0160; At 6 1-2 furlongs, it was 82-86-88, and at 7 furlongs it was 79-83-88-88 with the six-furlong call included. &#0160;&#0160;&#0160; Of course, it makes sense that as distances get longer, horses are ridden less energetically from the gate, if only slightly.&#0160; The data shows that, and thus my pace figures reflect it. &#0160;&#0160;&#0160; But truly accurate pace figures also require one additional and important &quot;tweak.&quot;&#0160; At the average one-mile track with a 990-foot stretch run, the first half-mile of a 6-furlong race is run around 76% of the stretch turn. At 7 furlongs, the first half-mile is run around only 29% of the turn.&#0160; Running around a turn slows a horse, but how much?&#0160; I have a formula I&#39;ve used for 30 years, ever since I first read about this phenomenon in an old Gordon Jones handicapping book. I used that formula to adjust the above pacefigs, but I&#39;d like to hear other opinions. &#0160;&#0160;&#0160; This tweaking based on turn times also comes into play -- in a big way - when attempting to calculate pace figures for distance races.&#0160; The spreadsheet shows that at a two-turn 1 mile distance, the national average pacefig line for a race with a final figure of 87 is as follows:&#0160; 67-76-83-88.&#0160; The average opening quarter-mile of 67 is a substantial decrease from the first-quarter average of 79 at 7 furlongs.&#0160; Again, one logical explanation is that jockeys ride less aggressively in two-turn races than one-turn races, but an additional and perhaps more substantial factor is this one: the opening quarter of a 1 mile race is around most of the clubhouse turn, and the first quarter of most sprints is run in a straight line with no turn involved.&#0160; To a slightly lesser extent, the half-mile fraction is similarly affected.&#0160; The first half-mile of a 1 mile race includes the entire clubhouse turn, while the opening half of a 6 furlong races covers only 76% of a turn. Clearly, pace figure points need to be added to the first two calls in route races to bring them in line with sprints and give us an apples-to-apples comparison, but exactly how much does a turn at a one-mile track slow progress? I have great respect for the intellect of horseplayers, and I&#39;m certain there are mathematicians and computer programmers among you.&#0160; If you care to, please pass along your thoughts on this - they might even put more money in your pocket someday.&#0160; Two pressing Belmont questions http://www.drf.com/blogs/two-pressing-belmont-questions Fri, 04 Jun 2010 20:02:14 +0000 Randy Moss 45496 at http://www.drf.com &#0160;&#0160; &#0160; Handicapping the Belmont Stakes - to me, at least - involves answering two questions. &#0160;How much was Ice Box&#39;s performance in the Kentucky Derby flattered by the pace? &#0160;And is First Dude likely to get the same trip in the Belmont as he got in the Preakness?&#0160;&#0160; &#0160; If those are indeed the keys to deciphering the race, pace figures can provide assistance.&#0160;&#0160; &#0160; First, the Derby pace was borderline suicidal, so Ice Box&#39;s running style had to be boosted by the race shape. Given that pace, there was no doubt he was the best horse, and with a clean trip he might have won by daylight in a Beyer Speed Figure of 106 or 107. &#0160;The Florida Derby pace probably worked somewhat to his advantage as well.&#0160;&#0160;&#0160; &#0160; But the Belmont Stakes pace is likely to be more competitive than many think. &#0160;Based on the pacefigs, the early pace figures to boil down to First Dude, Game On Dude and Uptowncharlybrown, but my opinion is that First Dude probably won&#39;t be left alone the way he was three weeks ago. &#0160;When they squared off in the Florida Derby, Game On Dude had the advantage on First Dude at almost every call, and he earned competitive pace figures in his Lone Star Derby as well.&#0160;&#0160; &#0160; In this opinion, Uptowncharlybrown is better than his recent figures indicate but still not in the upper tier. &#0160;Make Music For Me hung somewhat in the last furlong of the Derby, especially relative to Ice Box, which makes his mile-and-a-half chances suspect given the Carson City influence on his dam&#39;s side. Drosselmeyer, Stay Put and Interactif are admirably consistent but not fast enough. &#0160;Dave in Dixie, Spangled Star and Game On Dude have a better chance of finishing last than first.&#0160;&#0160; &#0160; So that leaves my wagering strategy as this: &#0160;Ice Box as my &quot;A&quot; horse on most tickets, with Fly Down as the &quot;A&quot; on some backups, with First Dude, Stately Victor and Uptowncharlybrown underneath. Is he finally lookin' at lucky? http://www.drf.com/blogs/he-finally-lookin-lucky Thu, 13 May 2010 16:04:55 +0000 Randy Moss 45497 at http://www.drf.com &#0160;&#0160;&#0160; First off, the No. 1 post position in the Kentucky Derby is not a death sentence, no matter what you read.&#0160;If you have the time, consult YouTube to watch the video of Derby runnings from 2003-2009, and you&#0160;won&#39;t see meaningful early&#0160;trouble for any of those rail-drawn horses.&#0160;As a matter of fact, in each&#0160;of those years,&#0160;the horses breaking from the&#0160;inside post outran their projected finishes based on&#0160;final odds (average odds ranking 15th, average finish 9.5).&#0160;There is much to be said for saving ground - ask Calvin Borel. But having said that, Lookin at Lucky seems the kind of horse that would&#0160;least benefit from&#0160;the No. 1 post in the Derby. After his travails in the Rebel, Santa Anita Derby and Kentucky Derby, he looks to me like a horse who is easily intimidated.&#0160; &#0160;&#0160;Apparently Garrett Gomez feels the same way.&#0160; In his post-Derby blog, Gomez&#0160;wrote, &quot;I got bounced the first couple of jumps.....and he got up on his feet and traveled well for about six or seven jumps and all of a sudden he just stuck his feet in the ground and hesitated. When he stuck them in the ground, I sat down on him because I didn&#39;t know what was going on. By then, I started to figure out what he was doing. I knew I was in trouble, because you can&#39;t do that in this race, going into the first turn. You can&#39;t give up that ground.&quot;&#0160; &#0160; &#0160;&#0160;&#0160; That hesitation by Lookin at Lucky put him a position to get swarmed a second time in the opening quarter-mile and shuffled back to 18th.&#0160; Of course, the two horses behind him -&#0160;Ice Box and Make Music For Me - didn&#39;t run too badly from way back there, so don&#39;t let your excuse-o-meter run wild. Lookin at Lucky&#39;s No. 7 post position in the Preakness&#0160;is better for Baffert&#39;s plan to have Martin Garcia get him outside and away from claustrophobia. This strategy&#0160;might incur ground loss, but preferably not as much as&#0160;his Breeders&#39; Cup Juvenile, and, anyhow, a three-wide trip is better than having him stick his feet in the ground again. &#0160;&#0160;&#0160; If Super Saver&#39;s Derby&#0160;improvement was&#0160;strictly due to&#0160;trip,&#0160;slop or a fondness for Churchill Downs, then with&#0160;the right trip&#0160;Lookin at Lucky is clearly at the top of the list of alternatives.&#0160;Paddy O&#39; Prado&#39;s Derby trouble is being overrated in my opinion, but he&#39;s obviously in with a chance, as well.&#0160; And for a longshot, consider Yawanna Twist at 30-1.&#0160; He&#39;s&#0160;never run a bad race, has Rick Dutrow in his corner,&#0160;his Illinois Derby was better than many think,&#0160;and he has the&#0160;tactical speed to&#0160;secure a&#0160;beneficial spot. Fast, but not THAT fast http://www.drf.com/blogs/fast-not-fast Mon, 10 May 2010 18:28:39 +0000 Randy Moss 45498 at http://www.drf.com (Note: Daily Racing Form was informed by NYRA on Thursday, May 13, that the official running times for the Withers Stakes have been changed to :23.42, :45.64, 1:09.27 and a final time of 1:35.87.) &#0160;&#0160; When a race runs decidedly faster or slower&#0160;than anticipated,&#0160;it can be tempting for figmakers to&#0160;adjust their numbers up or down to reflect par times or figure projections.&#0160; But experienced figmakers have learned that in the absence of any tangible explanation - such as a sudden rainstorm&#0160;- it is usually best to trust the clock and avoid &quot;playing God&quot; with the figures. &#0160;&#0160; Sometimes, though, the final time of a race makes so little sense that something&#0160;must be amiss. And that was the case in the April 24 Withers Stakes at Aqueduct. &#0160;&#0160;&#0160; Almost as soon as 24-1 longshot Afleet Again crossed the finish in front, eyebrows were being raised at the clockings posted on the board:&#0160; 21.60, 43.82, 1:07.45 and a final time of 1:34.05.&#0160; If, say, D&#39;Funnybone had sprinted away from the field to an eight-length lead&#0160;down the backstretch, those fractional times&#0160;might have been believable, but only three lengths separated&#0160;the five-horse field&#0160;after a quarter-mile.&#0160;And alarm sirens began to wail more loudly when Mark Hopkins calculated the Beyer Speed Figures for the race&#0160;based on the official time: Afleet Again 116, runnerup Ibboyee 113, and third-place Spangled Star 105. &#0160; Hopkins and Andy Beyer immediately suspected a timer malfunction of some kind, and digital timing software proved their suspicions correct.&#0160; Afleet Again actually ran the mile in about 1:35.80,&#0160;and the race fractions were much slower as well:&#0160;in the close neighborhood of 23.35, 45.57 and 1:09.20&#0160;(There is a slight margin of error, but&#0160;the timing software can usually get within .05 seconds of the actual time). &#0160;&#0160; NYRA apparently is sticking with the original clocking, so the times above are not official.&#0160;But the Beyer Speed Figure for Afleet Again was adjusted downward to a 98, and the&#0160;Moss Pace Figures&#0160;for the race (82-90-93-92)&#0160;also reflect the revised clocking.&#0160; &#0160;&#0160;&#0160; Last summer, Quality Road&#39;s 1:13.74 in the Amsterdam Stakes&#0160;- with internal fractions of 22.45, 44.55 and 1:07.22 - caused similar consternation, especially since Quality Road picked up 2 1/2 lengths on the leader&#0160;during the second quarter.&#0160; In that case, timing software verified the&#0160;Saratoga teletimer.&#0160; The Withers time, on the other hand, doesn&#39;t hold up to&#0160;scrutiny.&#0160; &#0160;&#0160; Kentucky postscripts http://www.drf.com/blogs/kentucky-postscripts Thu, 06 May 2010 17:49:10 +0000 Randy Moss 45499 at http://www.drf.com &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;I thought you might find this interesting.&nbsp; Below is a table of Moss Pace Figures for the last 24 runnings of the Kentucky Derby (1987-2010).&nbsp; The first column of pacefigs corresponds to the fractional times of the race (quarter, half, three-quarters, mile and final) and thus indicates at a glance the fastest-paced runnings.&nbsp; The second column of pacefigs is what each of the winners ran at those calls. <table class="tjctable"> <tbody><tr> <th>Year</th> <th>Race pacefigs</th> <th>Winner</th> <th>Winner pacefigs</th> </tr> <tr> <td>2010</td> <td>88-94-97-96-F94</td> <td>Super Saver</td> <td>71-81-90-94-F94</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2009</td> <td>77-80-86-92-F94</td> <td>Mine That Bird</td> <td>16-58-73-86-F94</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2008</td> <td>70-81-90-94-F96</td> <td>Big Brown</td> <td>66-77-86-94-F96</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2007</td> <td>77-88-91-94-F96</td> <td>Street Sense</td> <td>34-61-81-91-F96</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2006</td> <td>81-88-90-92-F97</td> <td>Barbaro</td> <td>71-82-88-92-F97</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2005</td> <td>87-93-97-96-F93</td> <td>Giacomo</td> <td>54-70-84-92-F93</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2004</td> <td>81-89-92-97-F95</td> <td>Smarty Jones</td> <td>77-85-91-95-F95</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2003</td> <td>77-85-91-85-F96</td> <td>Funny Cide</td> <td>71-82-90-95-F96</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2002</td> <td>71-80-86-93-F98</td> <td>War Emblem</td> <td>71-80-86-93-F98</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2001</td> <td>83-95-97-97-F99</td> <td>Monarchos</td> <td>45-74-88-95-F99</td> </tr> <td>2000</td> <td>81-86-93-94-F96</td> <td>Fusaichi Pegasus</td> <td>44-74-87-93-F96</td> </tr> <td>1999</td> <td>70-78-87-94-F96</td> <td>Charismatic</td> <td>60-73-84-93-F96</td> </tr> <tr> <td>1998</td> <td>81-92-94-99-F95</td> <td>Real Quiet</td> <td>61-81-89-99-F95</td> </tr> <tr> <td>1997</td> <td>70-81-88-95-F98</td> <td>Silver Charm</td> <td>58-77-87-95-F98</td> </tr> <tr> <td>1996</td> <td>85-87-94-98-F97</td> <td>Grindstone</td> <td>35-70-87-90-F97</td> </tr> <tr> <td>1995</td> <td>81-88-92-95-F96</td> <td>Thunder Gulch</td> <td>71-83-90-94-F96</td> </tr> <tr> <td>1994</td> <td>82-86-92-96-F97</td> <td>Go For Gin</td> <td>82-86-92-96-F97</td> </tr> <tr> <td>1993</td> <td>79-84-90-93-F94</td> <td>Sea Hero</td> <td>48-73-86-86-F94</td> </tr> <tr> <td>1992</td> <td>71-77-86-93-F95</td> <td>Lil E. Tee</td> <td>53-69-82-88-F95</td> </tr> <tr> <td>1991</td> <td>74-87-92-93-F95</td> <td>Strike the Gold</td> <td>45-74-86-92-F95</td> </tr> <tr> <td>1990</td> <td>83-90-94-93-F99</td> <td>Unbridled</td> <td>48-70-88-93-F99</td> </tr> <tr> <td>1989</td> <td>80-89-95-96-F93</td> <td>Sunday Silence</td> <td>70-79-90-95-F93</td> </tr> <tr> <td>1988</td> <td>76-83-91-98-F97</td> <td>Winning Colors</td> <td>76-83-91-98-F97</td> </tr> <tr> <td>1987</td> <td>80-86-93-96-F94</td> <td>Alysheba</td> <td>49-69-89-94-F94</td> </tr> </tbody></table> &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;From the table, the Derby pace this year ranked right up there figure-wise with the meltdown paces of 2005 and 2001, as many had predicted. &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Derby junkies may enjoy comparing pace lines of past winners. &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Comparing the mile pacefig to the final figure, the five fastest stretch runs belong to 1) Mine That Bird (by a fraction of a point), 2) Grindstone, 3) Sea Hero, 4) Lil E. Tee, and 5) Unbridled. &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;The slowest stretch runs were 1) Real Quiet, 2) Smarty Jones and Sunday Silence (tie), 4) Winning Colors, 5) Alysheba and Super Saver (tie).&nbsp; Perhaps it is coincidence, but Real Quiet and Smarty Jones both appeared home free for a Triple Crown in the Belmont Stakes before their late collapses. Sunday Silence was all over the track in the final furlong.&nbsp; Winning Colors set the pace and just held over Forty Niner.&nbsp; Don’t forget that Alysheba clipped heels with Bet Twice in the stretch and nearly went down.&nbsp; And interestingly, Super Saver is the only other Derby winner during the above 24-year span whose final fig was slower than the mile pacefig. &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;The Derby winners who had the fastest opening half-mile were 1) Go For Gin, 2) Smarty Jones, 3) Winning Colors and Thunder Gulch (surprise), and 5) Funny Cide. &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; The five slowest after a half were 1) Mine that Bird, 2) Street Sense (can you say Calvin Borel), 3) Lil E. Tee and Alysheba (tie), and 5) Grindstone.&nbsp; Just missing the cut were Unbridled and Giacomo.&nbsp; I would have expected to see Sea Hero up there, too, but he was tied with Charismatic for eighth. &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; The fastest turn moves, from the half-mile pole to the quarter pole, were 1) Mine That Bird, 2) Street Sense (another Borel exacta), 3) Real Quiet, 4) Charismatic and Giacomo (tie).&nbsp;&nbsp; Silver Charm and Big Brown were fractions of a point behind. &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Now for some non-pacefig related thoughts from this year’s Derby. &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Early in the week, Jerry Hissam, Calvin Borel’s longtime agent, gave me a hint of what to expect Saturday.&nbsp; “You know those chart comments that say ‘shuffled back start’?&nbsp; Super Saver will be shuffled back at the start, only on purpose,” Hissam said. “Don’t be surprised if you see Calvin take him 10 lengths off the lead.” &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;Three weeks earlier in the Arkansas Derby, everyone had expected Super Saver to control the pace from his rail post position, especially since the only other frontrunner in the field was Line of David, and he was coming off slower-paced turf races.&nbsp; But Jon Court was intent on the lead with Line of David and zipped the opening quarter in 22 3/5 seconds, giving Borel little choice but to grab Super Saver a furlong from the gate and try to rate him. Trainer Todd Pletcher had talked since winter about his desire to give Super Saver experience in racing behind other horses, and on that day, importantly, Super Saver didn’t fight Borel’s restraint and appeared to settle nicely. &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;Super Saver couldn’t get by longshot Line of David in the long Oaklawn stretch, which many regarded as a strong negative, especially after he couldn’t hold a lead in the stretch of the Tampa Bay Derby. &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;However, Borel said he “learned a lot” about Super Saver at Oaklawn, namely that Super Saver didn’t necessarily need the early lead. &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Super Saver’s trip in the Arkansas Derby - he sat alone in second, to the outside and several lengths behind Line of David - was a walk in the park for a habitual frontrunner compared to his Derby trip of a half-dozen lengths back on the rail.&nbsp; But with Conveyance and others almost certain to set a taxing pace, Pletcher and Borel had no choice but to plot a come-from-behind strategy in the Derby and hope for the best. Super Saver rewarded those handicappers who correctly regarded his Arkansas Derby as a clue he could be taken off the pace, and who saw his Derby week training as an indication of his improving condition and his fondness for the Churchill Downs strip. &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; That Super Saver peaked in the Derby is a tribute to Pletcher’s management, although Pletcher conceded afterward, “I’m not sure what we did to make that happen.” &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; At several points during the winter, Pletcher commented that Super Saver was “behind schedule” and playing “catch-up.”&nbsp; He didn’t elaborate on what put Super Saver behind schedule, only to say cryptically at the post-Derby press conference that, “He just needed some time to really get going as well as he can go.&nbsp; There was nothing….he didn’t miss any days of training.” &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Published workouts show just how behind schedule Super Saver was in comparison to Pletcher’s other 3-year-olds.&nbsp; Mission Impazible had steady workouts dating back to late November.&nbsp; Discreetly Mine began his schedule of regular breezes in early December, Eskendereya in mid-December, and filly Devil May Care and Rule began with Jan. 3 workouts.&nbsp; Super Saver’s first recorded workout was Jan. 24. &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; The Tampa Bay Derby was not Pletcher’s original plan for Super Saver’s 3-year-old debut, but he ultimately chose that race over the Rebel Stakes and Gotham Stakes because of the easier ship from his home base of Palm Meadows.&nbsp; Pletcher hinted that the 3-to-2 favorite might not win the race, saying his goal was a good effort but not a peak performance.&nbsp; Ramon Dominguez, who got the mount when Calvin Borel was committed to Rachel Alexandra in Louisiana, put Super Saver on the lead and he battled through the stretch to finish a close third to Odysseus and Schoolyard Dreams while failing to change his running leads through the lane. &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; The Arkansas Derby was the next step in the progression, and Pletcher commented at Churchill Downs that Super Saver was getting “better and better” since that race. &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Of course, all trainers speak in positive terms of the condition of their horses on Derby week, including Pletcher, who learned his lessons from D. Wayne Lukas.&nbsp; But in this case, more of us should have connected the dots. &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Final Louisville postscript: Wednesday morning of Derby week, I came across WinStar Farm’s Bill Casner and his wife, Susan, chatting intently in the Churchill Downs barn area with trainer Eoin Harty, who ran their American Lion in the Derby. &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Just a month ago, WinStar had five horses pointing for the Derby.&nbsp; Drosselmeyer’s trouble in the Louisiana Derby put him too far down the graded earnings list, but WinStar had still been poised to become the first owners ever to start four horses in a Derby until Rule was pulled out a couple days earlier due to lackluster training.&nbsp; Even so, three starters was certainly nothing to sneeze at, so I eagerly approached the Casners to offer my congratulations. &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Interrupting their conversation (my first faux pas), I thrust my hand toward Bill.&nbsp; “I just want to shake hands with the hottest man in America,” I said. &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Casner shook my hand but looked at me with a crestfallen expression, saying nothing. &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; “Is everything okay?” I asked. &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; “No,” he replied. &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Only minutes earlier, Casner and his young trainer Shannon Ritter had seen the X-rays of the condylar fracture in Endorsement’s ankle.&nbsp; Now WinStar was down to two Derby starters, and many had regarded Endorsement as their best Derby hopeful. &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Casner was literally on the verge of tears, not just for WinStar, but also for Ritter, who had been so enthusiastic about the prospects of saddling her first Derby starter. &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Only five days before that, a crushed Pletcher had to announce that his leading Derby candidate, Eskendereya, would miss the race. &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Seeing Casner and Pletcher hoisting the Kentucky Derby trophy was yet another reminder of the schizophrenia of thoroughbred racing, a game in which the heights of jubilation and depths of despair are so closely intertwined, they can seem to run together in one continuous blur of emotion. &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; Handicapping treachery http://www.drf.com/blogs/handicapping-treachery Fri, 30 Apr 2010 16:16:56 +0000 Randy Moss 45500 at http://www.drf.com &#0160;&#0160;&#0160;Which horse ran the faster opening six furlongs in his final prep? a)&#0160;&#0160;&#0160; Sidney’s Candy b)&#0160;&#0160; Ice Box &#0160;&#0160; &#0160;&#0160;If you said b) Ice Box, go to the head of the pace figure class.&#0160; Now, good luck with your Kentucky Derby selections. &#0160;&#0160;&#0160; &#0160;That sounds ridiculous, doesn’t it?&#0160; &#0160;But it’s true.&#0160; &#0160;The treachery of handicapping this Derby is made even more frustrating by the effect of synthetic racing surfaces on the way races are run, especially at Santa Anita. &#0160; &#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160; Because of the speed-hindering tendencies of the Pro Ride surface, Santa Anita jockeys by necessity have completely changed the way they ride horses, especially in longer races.&#0160; Instead of hustling early to establish a forward position, they focus on settling back and conserving energy.&#0160; And occasionally, they overcompensate. When that happens, a frontrunner – in this case, Sidney’s Candy – can get away with ridiculously easy fractions. &#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160; But what exactly does this mean?&#0160; Some will argue that Sidney’s Candy deserves extra credit for winning in wire-to-wire fashion against the natural bias of synthetics.&#0160; They look at his swift closing fractions and project that a pace-stalking Derby trip will be right up his alley.&#0160; Others take a more conventional handicapping approach and downgrade his performances based on the easy trips. &#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160; This makes Sidney’s Candy the Tim Tebow of the Derby field. &#0160;Opinion about his chances to succeed at the next level is all over the board. &#0160;If his intangibles allow him to settle into a forward stalking position and he wins by three lengths, it won’t surprise me.&#0160; If his Santa Anita Derby synthetic form fails to translate and he fades to finish 12th, it won’t surprise me.&#0160; It is obvious Sidney’s Candy is much faster than his recent pace figures indicate. &#0160;Other than that, I have no clue how he’ll run, and, truthfully, neither do his connections. &#0160; &#0160;&#0160;&#0160;Conveyance and Line of David should go to the front based on pace figures.&#0160; That’s pretty easy to figure.&#0160; The figures show that several others could be closer than anticipated, including Discreetly Mine, Mission Impazible and even Awesome Act. &#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160; My selection is based on the concept that speed will probably falter and Sidney’s Candy will likely not be the one to capitalize.&#0160; But my longshot choice, Stately Victor, has little to do with pace figures specifically.&#0160; Stately Victor has the right late-running style, he looks like a million dollars, the Blue Grass is looking like a stronger prep than numbers indicate, and he’s bred to handle an off track. &#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160; No, he has never won a race on dirt.&#0160; And that’s why he’s 30-1 in the program. &#0160;You can&#39;t have everything. &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; One last prep recap http://www.drf.com/blogs/one-last-prep-recap Tue, 20 Apr 2010 12:37:08 +0000 Randy Moss 45502 at http://www.drf.com Before we start diving into the Kentucky Derby pacefest, let’s first catch up on the last two major preps. Line of David might be a 30-to-1 shot when the field leaves the gate for the Derby, but judging from his Arkansas Derby performance, he should have a strong impact on how the race is run. Most thought Super Saver would set the pace, but he broke a touch awkwardly and Line of David blasted off decisively to control the early running in a pacefig line of 78-85-92-93-92F. Line of David, Super Saver, Dublin and Noble’s Promise were all weakening noticeably toward the end; the fractions were only slightly stronger than average recent runnings of the race, but the Arkansas Derby tends to have a larger field and more aggressive pace than many preps. From 2004’s Smarty Jones to the present, the Arkansas Derby pacefig line has averaged 77-83-90-93-94F. In a Kentucky Derby that appears loaded with early foot, these horses obviously don’t factor as strongly as, say, Curlin, Afleet Alex and Smarty Jones did in other recent runnings. Dublin once again seemed best in hindsight given ground loss, but he had similar excuses in the Southwest and Rebel, and hung late in the Arkansas Derby when the race seemed ripe for the taking. Noble’s Promise had a legitimate excuse; he was taken out of his usual game when shuffled back to last in the opening strides, but his lackluster final furlong certainly didn’t alleviate concerns about his distance pedigree. The likely early leaders at Churchill Downs are easy to decipher. Line of David’s four- and six-furlong pace figures were 85-92. In the Florida Derby, Rule’s were 86-91, and Conveyance went in 87-92 in the one-mile Southwest Stakes. Who knows what to make of Sidney’s Candy? Then throw in American Lion and possibly others such as Super Saver and Discreetly Mine and whatever tactical-speed type draws an inside post position, and we have the makings of a Derby pace meltdown to rival 2001 (Monarchos) and 2005 (Giacomo). Recently, the Arkansas Derby has been straightforward, yielding few surprises at Churchill Downs. Papa Clem and Gayego were longshots and ran like it. The inexperienced Curlin was well-supported, but his Oaklawn pacefig line of 65-73-85-92-95F put him in the bottom half of the Kentucky Derby field pace-wise; he seemed out of sorts when he found himself well behind in the first run through the lane, and never fully recovered. Afleet Alex was rated behind a decidedly slower-than-normal Arkansas Derby paceline (73-74-83 for the first three calls), making his 96F and 108 Beyer Speed Figure even better than it looked. And Smarty Jones had a beautiful paceline for a rateable Kentucky Derby contender with 81-83-91-96-96F. One week earlier, Sidney’s Candy waltzed through a synthetic 53-63-77-90-93F Santa Anita Derby paceline and left good horses for dead through the stretch. In the Blue Grass Stakes, Odysseus led early in an eerily similar paceline of 55-61-75 for the first three calls yet was nowhere to be found late, although he reportedly did suffer an injury in the running. This makes Sidney’s Candy look even better, sure, but the question isn’t what Sidney’s Candy can do after being allowed to set a leisurely and uncontested pace. The question is how Sidney’s Candy will react to a frantic Kentucky Derby dirt pace, especially if he is behind it. Blue Grass winner Stately Victor also looks strikingly similar pace-wise to Santa Anita Derby runnerup Setsuko – except that he has more than enough earnings to guarantee a spot in Kentucky, and Setsuko doesn’t. Stately Victor’s personal Blue Grass paceline was 41-52-71-87-90F compared to Setsuko’s 36-53-71-82-90F. Numbers-wise, Stately Victor made his big run around the turn and into the stretch, while Setsuko’s was more of a belated final quarter-mile rally. Stately Victor might just be getting good at the right time, but his earlier dirt numbers don’t compare with his Blue Grass form. That makes it easy to assume – fairly or unfairly - that he moved up on synthetics. However, the Derby pace should suit his style, so a 30-to-1 price might make him worth a flyer. Somebody is very possibly going to star in the role of deep closer, and if Eskendereya doesn’t make that adjustment smoothly, all sorts of scenarios are opened up. Does Eskendereya have a weakness? http://www.drf.com/blogs/does-eskendereya-have-weakness Wed, 07 Apr 2010 19:04:56 +0000 Randy Moss 45503 at http://www.drf.com The pacefigs for last weekend&#39;s preps: <table class="tjctable"> <tbody><tr> <th>Race</th> <th>Winner</th> <th>Moss Pace Figure line</th> </tr> <tr> <td>Wood Memorial</td> <td>Race pacefigs</td> <td>70-74-86-93-F96</td> </tr> <tr class="altrow"> <td>&#0160;</td> <td>Eskendereya</td> <td>64-73-85-93-F96</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Santa Anita Derby</td> <td>Sidney&#39;s Candy</td> <td>53-63-77-90-F93</td> </tr> <tr class="altrow"> <td>Illinois Derby</td> <td>American Lion</td> <td>60-73-86-92-F92</td> </tr> </tbody></table> WOOD MEMORIAL Ever noticed that no matter how fast horses run, they always have something left to prove? So it is with Eskendereya. He has run by far the fastest of these 3-year-olds, although Lookin At Lucky is no slouch. A mile and a quarter should be a piece of cake. Professionalism appears to be no problem. Todd Pletcher’s 0-for-24 in the Kentucky Derby is meaningless, because he’ll have multiple Derby trophies before you know it. No, the biggest question Eskendereya must answer is how he will react to what might be a trickier pace scenario in the Derby. His Florida Derby Wood Memorial paceline closely matches his Fountain of Youth numbers of 64-75-84-92-F95, and in both cases he was within easy striking distance in moderately paced races. But if Eskendereya had been in last year’s Kentucky Derby and had run at that rate of speed, he would have been ninth after a half-mile – and this Derby field should have more speed than last year’s did. If Eskendereya is 10 lengths off the lead amidst a shower of sand with a half-mile to run, instead of breathing down the neck of the pacesetter, will that professionalism evaporate? And if he is hustled by John Velazquez to stay closer, will he perform as a confused Point Given did in 2001 under similar circumstances? In 2007, Curlin was another who didn’t make that pace adjustment smoothly. My ESPN colleague Jerry Bailey has also drilled into my head – and he should know – that winning the Kentucky Derby in a 20-horse scrum often requires a horse with quick acceleration and the ability to make multiple moves, enabling a jockey to capitalize on openings as soon as those opportunities appear. We haven’t seen that acceleration from Eskendereya, but to be fair, we weren’t going to see eye-catching bursts in the Fountain of Youth and Wood, given the way those races were run. If the pace is quick enough in the Derby, Eskendereya indeed might streak by horses around the second turn like they were standing still. These concerns can qualify as nit-picking, especially if a horse has clearly superior talent. There were similar issues with Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000, and he rallied from far back when Kent Desormeaux somehow got through along the rail at every critical stage. Two years ago, Big Brown’s post position draw was disastrous, and it didn’t matter a bit. Eskendereya is still the horse to beat, and a deserving Derby favorite. I’m just explaining why it sometimes isn’t as easy as it looks on paper. There are always questions to be answered. SANTA ANITA DERBY This could be a textbook example for Synthetic Handicapping Quandaries 101. We know synthetics are much less favorable than dirt to early speed. We know that in Southern California, for example, jockeys have adjusted to this reality by riding less aggressively, and trainers are trying to put less speed into their horses. But we also see the pendulum occasionally swing too far the other way, when quality front-runners are given such an effortless lead that even on synthetics they become very difficult to catch. The poster child for the latter scenario is Sidney’s Candy. On dirt, his pacefigs would be that of a deep closer. In the Santa Anita Derby, he led every step. What this means for the Kentucky Derby is open to much interpretation. Clearly, Sidney’s Candy has much more natural speed than he has been required to show at Santa Anita. But in a pace battle with Rule, American Lion, and possibly Super Saver and other speed, his easy world could be turned upside down – unless, of course, he’s the kind of horse that can rate patiently and kick past the front-runners with plenty of mile-and-a-quarter stamina. No one knows if Sidney’s Candy can do that – not John Sadler, not Joe Talamo, and certainly not horseplayers. In my experience, most horses in this situation fail miserably. In my opinion, Sidney&#39;s Candy is worth the risk only if he has considerable value on the Derby odds board. Lookin At Lucky&#39;s Santa Anita Derby is a complete throw-out for obvious reasons. At this point, he remains a huge threat to Eskendereya – the primary threat - just as he was two weeks ago. I find Setsuko a more appealing Kentucky Derby option than Sidney&#39;s Candy, assuming he makes the starting lineup. Setsuko was last early behind the leisurely pace, then rallied two paths wider than Lookin At Lucky to be running nicely at the finish. He&#39;s bred (Pleasantly Perfect) for dirt and distance, is improving, and will undoubtedly find a faster-paced race more to his liking. Anyone want to loan him another fifty thou? ILLINOIS DERBY American Lion got just what he needed – a switch from synthetics to dirt, where on a surface rewarding speed he found a pace scenario that enabled him to run freely and without he restraint he seems to detest. But American Lion looks like the kind of horse that runs best when allowed to roll, and even when controlling the tempo in a fairly soft-paced Illinois Derby, he didn’t rack up the kind of War Emblem figure that would make him a bona fide classic threat. American Lion ran essentially the same figure with a dream trip in the Illinois Derby that Rule did while encountering pressure from start to finish in the Florida Derby. His prep win notwithstanding, American Lion looks like a 75-1 shot for the Kentucky Derby. Fractionally speaking, four more preps http://www.drf.com/blogs/fractionally-speaking-four-more-preps Tue, 30 Mar 2010 18:39:13 +0000 Randy Moss 45504 at http://www.drf.com FLORIDA DERBY First off, dismiss the notion that Ice Box and Pleasant Prince are one-off flukes that capitalized on a suicidal pace in the Florida Derby. This wasn&#39;t Giacomo in the 2005 Kentucky Derby. The Florida Derby pace was contentious and certainly honest, but nothing scintillating. After all, if the pace was that fast, would Pulsion have been able to go head-and-head for the lead? The Florida Derby pace figures (on the Moss Pace Figure scale) of 76-86-90-92-92F were right in line with the six-year average for the race of 77-85-91-93-93F, compiled since Gulfstream&#39;s oval was screwed up reconfigured in 2005. Rule and Pulsion set a pace quite a bit slower than Big Brown zipped through two years ago, but quicker than the pace of Casey&#39;s On Call that Quality Road tracked last year. Rule had a similar paceline in the Sam Davis of 78-84-89-92F, a little faster at the first quarter and a length or two slower at the half and three-quarters. He deserves kudos for running eye-to-eye with Pulsion and staying relaxed enough to pretty much run his usual race, but he&#39;s probably looking at the same type of trip in the Kentucky Derby, given the quantity of early speed we&#39;re seeing this season. Ice Box seems to have a slight edge over Pleasant Prince, but to me, the Florida Derby pace figures indicate these two colts are exactly what they seem: improving 3-year-olds with competitive numbers and a running style that often works well the first Saturday in May. LOUISIANA DERBY In this rescheduled and lengthened mile-and-an-eighth running, predictions that Discreetly Mine would face more pace pressure than he did in the Lecomte held true. But the Louisiana Derby pace wasn&#39;t even as quick as what we saw at Gulfstream, which explains why stretching-out A Little Warm and Discreetly Mine were still hanging so grittily in the closing stages. A Little Warm showed the way before yielding late to Mission Impazible in 78-79-88-89-90F - a touch quicker in the opening stages than the Florida Derby as the 13-horse field tried to get position around the first turn, but then relaxing noticeably in the middle stages. In the Lecomte, Discreetly Mine had been ignored on the lead in 67-75-84-90F, and wasn&#39;t about to get that kind of soft trip again. He ran decently nonetheless, but didn&#39;t finish as if a sternly-paced mile-and-a-quarter would be his cup of tea. It&#39;s much easier to say now, but Mission Impazible&#39;s Southwest Stakes effort was better than it looked on paper. Breaking from the far outside post going a mile, he was hustled to the first turn by Eibar Coa but still wound up three-wide, then was put into a hard drive three furlongs out only to get caught four-wide around the second turn. When Dublin rushed past him nearing the stretch, it briefly appeared Mission Impazible was in a retreating mode, but he actually finished about as well as the horses in front of him. By comparison, he got a perfect ground-saving trip in the Louisiana Derby, which creates the impression he&#39;s not quite as good as he looked at Fair Grounds but better than he finished at Oaklawn. Kent Desormeaux rode Drosselmeyer the only way he could have, brilliantly maneuvering him to the inside from the No. 13 post position and establishing rail position around both turns. Unfortunately, that also led to the traffic problems Drosselmeyer faced through the lane. As a grind-it-out type of runner with little quick acceleration, Drosselmeyer couldn&#39;t get through the inside hole aggressively enough when it finally did open up, and his third-place finish probably won&#39;t be good enough to land him a spot in the Kentucky Derby field. LANE&#39;S END STAKES Since Turfway Park switched to Polytrack prior to the fall 2005 meeting, the Lanes End pacefigs have averaged 67-69-80-88-91F -- including Hard Spun&#39;s &#39;07 victory that was run in almost a dirt-like fashion. This year, Dean&#39;s Kitten raced within a couple lengths of the pace in 63-63-78-88-90F. What does that mean? Good question. Wish I had a good answer. Dean&#39;s Kitten is obviously a decent horse, but it is hard to take him seriously for the Kentucky Derby since his only previous dirt effort -- a washed-off-the-turf one-mile stakes last October at Belmont -- was such a disaster he was eased in the stretch. By the way, the horse who won that race, finishing 33 ¾ lengths ahead of Dean&#39;s Kitten, happened to be Eskendereya. Runner-up Northern Giant ran a similar number on Polytrack as he had over Fair Grounds and Oaklawn dirt, but Beyers in the range of 89 to 91 don&#39;t inspire much Derby confidence. SUNLAND DERBY When Endorsement finished second in a Jan. 10 maiden race at Fair Grounds, then won a Feb. 20 maiden at Oaklawn, his respective pacelines were almost identical: 56-66-74-84F and 59-64-74-84F. Both races were leisurely-paced, and those aren&#39;t the numbers of your typical pace stalker. Endorsement&#39;s workout pattern indicated he was on the improve (any time a horse works 59 4/5 at Fair Grounds, circle it with a bright yellow marker). But with Conveyance, Classical Slew and Tempted to Tapit in the Sunland Derby field, not even Endorsement&#39;s trainer, Shannon Ritter, expected the kind of trip he got. Conveyance had absolutely none of the expected early competition, cruising nonchalantly through a 60-71 pace for the first half-mile, with Endorsement right behind him through his own familiar pacefigs of 56-68. Given that Conveyance had a length-and-a-half lead with so little exerted energy, he would have been 1-to-20 at that point had bettors been allowed to play a race in progress. But Endorsement turned out to be a better horse than expected, shadowing Conveyance through a six-furlong pacefig of 83. When Conveyance kicked into high gear and delivered a solid mile pacefig of 93, Endorsement was not only alongside but edging away. With that defeat, Conveyance dropped from my personal Top Ten. With that kind of pace setup, a legitimate Kentucky Derby contender should have run a career-best race instead of matching his 96 Beyer Speed Figure from the one-mile Southwest, the hottest-paced prep of the season thus far. That tells me a mile-and-eighth is outside his best distance, much less a mile-and-a-quarter. A tepid endorsement of Endorsement: he is getting better quickly, and his 101 Beyer puts him right behind Eskendereya in the Derby speed-figure pecking order, but you couldn&#39;t go to the chalkboard and draw up a more perfect trip than what he got at Sunland. At that rate of early speed, Endorsement will find himself surrounded by a horde of horses at Churchill Downs. Pace: Gotham, TB Derby, Rebel, Felipe http://www.drf.com/blogs/pace-gotham-tb-derby-rebel-felipe Tue, 16 Mar 2010 11:46:20 +0000 Randy Moss 45505 at http://www.drf.com Four recent Kentucky Derby prep races – all at 1 1/16 miles - had the following pace profiles: <table class="tjctable"> <tr> <th>Race</th> <th>Date</th> <th>Winner</th> <th>Moss Pace Figure line</th> </tr> <tr> <td>Gotham Stakes</td> <td>March 6</td> <td>Awesome Act</td> <td>89-91-90 final 92</td> </tr> <tr class="altrow"> <td>Tampa Bay Derby</td> <td>March 13</td> <td>Odysseus</td> <td>80-88-90 final 90</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Rebel Stakes</td> <td>March 13</td> <td>Lookin At Lucky</td> <td>67-74-83 final 92</td> </tr> <tr class="altrow"> <td>San Felipe</td> <td>March 13</td> <td>Sidney's Candy</td> <td>47-62-71 final 91</td> </tr> </table> Now for interpretations/observations: * Awesome Act was undoubtedly helped by the pace in front of him. The median Gotham pacefig line in its five years on the Aqueduct inner track is 76-82-88 final 92, so this year’s pace was decidedly faster. But visually, he looks like the real deal. The authority with which he rolled up to the leaders four-wide nearing the stretch and drew off was impressive. * Odysseus is slightly subpar on final Beyer figures, especially when weight is factored into the equation. But on the pacefig scale, this Tampa Bay Derby was aggressively run compared to the 10-year paceline of 78-84-90 final 91, so he deserves extra credit for maintaining enough energy for that improbable comeback. Notice he was treading water until he belatedly switched to his right running lead in midstretch, and then launched his winning surge. Having said that, I’d rate the effort of Schoolyard Dreams as slightly better than Odysseus, but that is highly subjective. Schoolyard Dreams showed a nice turn of foot while making that premature move, and lost more ground on the turns. Also, don’t forget Super Saver carried six more pounds than either of those colts, but he looks too one-dimensional for me. * Lookin At Lucky’s Rebel was a home run on multiple fronts. He showed he could ship effectively. He demonstrated that dirt will be no problem. He displayed toughness in overcoming the adversity of a rough trip. He again was determined in the stretch. He beat some nice horses. And notice how much slower the Rebel paceline was than the Gotham and Tampa Bay Derby (the 10-year Rebel norm is 72-82-89 final 92), yet Lookin At Lucky was still able to get up from five lengths back after a quarter-mile. Noble's Promise and Dublin are legitimate Top Ten prospects as well. Don’t give up on Dublin yet; he was four-wide around both turns in the Rebel. * And upon further review, I’m not a big believer in Sidney’s Candy at this point. Yes, early speed is typically at a disadvantage on synthetics, but not when a talented horse goes as slowly as he did. His form reminds me a little of Bob Black Jack, whose 2008 San Felipe pace was almost as slow – but not quite – as Sidney’s Candy’s. Bob Black Jack finished a good third in that race behind Georgie Boy and Gayego in a 94 Beyer, was beaten only a half-length by Colonel John in the Santa Anita Derby, then set the pace and lost by 32 lengths at Churchill Downs. Interactif was arguably a better horse in the San Felipe, making up some ground to lose by just a half-length. American Lion is too headstrong for synthetics; much the same as Zardana, upsetter of Rachel Alexandra, he should be helped by faster-paced dirt racing that will enable him to settle more willingly without need of the riding restraint he clearly resents. After falling into a perfect pace trip in the San Rafael, Caracortado was exposed in the San Felipe; when faced with some pace adversity, he was outfinished. And the early stroll completely obliterated the chances of Dave in Dixie. He was supposed to make up 7 1/2 lengths on Sidney’s Candy? No shot. Pace recap: Feb. 20 prep races http://www.drf.com/blogs/pace-recap-feb-20-prep-races Wed, 24 Feb 2010 15:30:22 +0000 Randy Moss 45507 at http://www.drf.com Pace points from the Feb. 20 prep races: HARD TO FAULT Eskendereya's Fountain of Youth romp deserves all the accolades. He is a bonafide No. 1 Kentucky Derby contender, especially since Lookin at Lucky is slightly behind schedule and has never raced on dirt. The knock on Eskendereya's race -- and there is always a knock to be found, right? - is that he benefited from a clear trip stalking a soft pace. The Moss Pace Figure line of 68-75-83-92-F95 is the second-slowest Fountain of Youth overall in 1 1/8-mile runnings since the Gulfstream track was reconfigured in 2005 (Quality Road's win last year was at one mile): <table class="tjctable"> <tr> <th>Year</th> <th>Winner</th> <th>Pacefig line</th> </tr> <tr> <td>2010</td> <td>Eskendereya</td> <td>68-75-83-92- F95</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2008</td> <td>Cool Coal Man</td> <td>64-79-89-93- F92</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2007</td> <td>Scat Daddy</td> <td>74-88-93-93- F91</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2006</td> <td>First Samurai</td> <td>62-69-80-89- F90</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2005</td> <td>High Fly</td> <td>74-83-91-92- F92</td> </tr></table> First Samurai set those soft fractions in 2006, then was moved up from second to first with the DQ of Corinthian. In his next start, First Samurai was trounced in Sinister Minister's Blue Grass Stakes, and never raced again. ANOTHER SYNTHETIC EXAMPLE Southwest Stakes winner Conveyance could be the poster child for fig differences between synthetics and dirt. In the Jan. 16 San Rafael over Santa Anita's Pro Ride, Conveyance was ignored on the front end in a five-horse field, loafing through a paceline of 46-62-76-F89. He had to work hard to hold off Cardiff Giant, but a galloping start and furious finish is not the ideal style for a speed-oriented horse whose advantage is a fast cruising speed. The whole fast-cruising-speed concept is often more of a disadvantage on synthetics. Also, his modest 91 Beyer Speed Figure in the San Rafael is an example of how synthetic tendencies to penalize speed create slow-pace scenarios that make it difficult to earn a strong final figure. In the Southwest on Oaklawn dirt, Conveyance's cruising speed was utilized to its fullest. Allowed to roll through a paceline of 83-87-92-F92 that was a trifle faster than the race's 10-year median of 82-85-91-F91, Conveyance turned in a final Beyer of 97. Whether Conveyance turns out to be a better Derby contender than Southwest runnerup Dublin remains to be seen. Dublin broke a length slow, stumbled slightly afterwards to lose perhaps another half-length, then went 2-to-3 wide on the first turn and 3-to-4 wide on the second turn. Conveyance had a ground-saving trip. Dublin carried 5 fewer pounds than Conveyance, but lost by only three-quarters of a length while giving up 4 to 5 lengths in ground loss. On that day, at least, a strong argument could be made Dublin was a better horse. RISING CONTENDER Go ahead and downgrade Discreetly Mine's Risen Star victory after his uncontested pace in easy fractions. That's fair. His pacefig line of 64-79-90-F90 is significantly slower than the previous decade's Risen Star average of 80-86-90. Conveyance ran his opening quarter-mile and half-mile a variant-adjusted six to eight lengths faster than Discreetly Mine ran his. Also, Discreetly Mine carried only 116 pounds. He probably doesn't deserve to be high on anyone's Derby list just yet. But at the same time, keep in mind Discreetly Mine has demonstrated he might not be a one-dimensional speed horse. He's a half-brother to the phenomenally-talented Godolphin star Discreet Cat. And while Discreet Cat is by the speedy Forestry and was at his best at a mile, Discreetly Mine is by Horse of the Year Mineshaft, a two-time Grade 1 winner at a mile-and-a-quarter, and out of Pretty Discreet, winner of the Grade 1 Alabama at a mile-and-a-quarter. Back in 1995, Pretty Discreet caught a sloppy track in the Alabama and raced to an eight-length upset for owner/breeder Paul Robsham at 42-to-1 odds, earning a 110 Beyer Speed Figure in the process. Discreet Cat was her sixth foal, and Robsham sold him to Godolphin for big money following an impressive maiden victory at Saratoga in August 2005. This one Robsham kept. A good "Rule" of thumb for 3-year-olds http://www.drf.com/blogs/good-rule-thumb-3-year-olds Tue, 16 Feb 2010 14:50:20 +0000 Randy Moss 45508 at http://www.drf.com If you didn’t already believe Rule is a legitimate Kentucky Derby threat, he made his case again Saturday. If you tend to downgrade anything you see from Delta Downs, Rule’s victory in the Sam Davis should drive home the point he is a Top Five contender at this early stage of the prep season. He has much left to prove. For example, one valid knock is that he hasn’t defeated what most would consider another highly-regarded 3-year-old. But from a pace perspective, here is my “Rule” of thumb: any frontrunning 3-year-old who consistently survives pressure and faster-than-average fractions while finishing with Beyer Speed Figures near the top of his class deserves respect. On paper, Rule had the Sam Davis field over the proverbial pace barrel, especially breaking from the inside post position. And his three-length victory was accomplished after a Moss Pace Figure line of 78-84-89, almost identical to his lines in the Jean Lafitte (78-83-87) and Delta Jackpot (76-85-90). Rule’s pace effort Saturday was a moderate length or two faster across the board than the 76-82-87 ten-year average paceline for the Sam Davis - and Schoolyard Dreams, who shadowed Rule throughout much of the early running, also held on well to finish second at 9-to-1. However, the point to be made is that Rule continues to put up Beyers that compare favorably to other 3-year-olds – 98-95-97 in his last three starts – and he isn’t “backing” into anything. Rule not only hasn’t been the beneficiary of easy trips, from a pace standpoint his trips have actually been a smidgen tougher than the norm. Sizing up the Whirlaway http://www.drf.com/blogs/sizing-whirlaway Mon, 08 Feb 2010 21:51:13 +0000 Randy Moss 45509 at http://www.drf.com &#0160;&#0160;&#0160; Once odds-on Eightyfiveinafifty decided to test the speed limit on the outer rail of Aqueduct&#39;s clubhouse turn Saturday, the Whirlaway Stakes lost most of its appeal and relevance.&#0160;&#0160;&#0160; The Beyer Speed Figure of 86 recorded by winner Peppi Knows won&#39;t land him on many Kentucky Derby Top Ten lists, but because the inner dirt was playing slowly, the race was stronger-paced than its fractions of :23.79, :48.66 and 1:14.74 would indicate. The Beyer corresponds to 88 on the Moss Pace Figure scale, and the pacefig line of 81-81-82 rates faster than the 1 1/16 par pacefigs of 72-79-85.&#0160; That&#39;s no surprise, since the four horses that finished the race had all previously shown speed.&#0160;&#0160;&#0160; The primary Whirlaway points are these:&#0160; 1) Three Day Rush was probably best, since he dashed out with and was bothered by Eightyfiveinafifty yet finished decently to be beaten less than a length, 2) the Whirlway horses could be useful but probably aren&#39;t mile-and-a-quarter material, and 3) the victory and Beyer figure by Peppi Knows flatters Remsen Stakes winner Buddy&#39;s Saint, whose unusually slow Remsen Beyer of 82 doesn&#39;t seem to do him justice. Of the four Remsen starters who have run back subsequently (Buddy&#39;s Saint hasn&#39;t), three of them increased their Beyers next time out by 14, 12 and 6 points.&#0160;&#0160;&#0160; A Gulfstream one-mile first-level allowance for 3-year-olds on the Donn undercard isn&#39;t likely to have Derby relevance, either. Spectacular Bid runnerup Wildcat Frankie and Rick Dutrow&#39;a newly-blinkered Bank the Eight carved out a swift 81-88-89 pace (compared to 75-81-83 par). They finished one-two but in a final fig of 85 (pacefig scale) and 80 (Beyer scale). Wildcat Frankie is almost certainly a one-turn specialist; Bank the Eight has pedigree and more upside than his 80 Beyer given the pace scenario Saturday, but in his most recent pre-blinkers start was beaten nine lengths by Eskendereya.&#0160;&#0160;&#0160; Holy Bull and Lecomte http://www.drf.com/blogs/holy-bull-and-lecomte Wed, 27 Jan 2010 17:01:06 +0000 Randy Moss 45511 at http://www.drf.com Number crunching Jan. 23 preps at Gulfstream Park and Fair Grounds reaffirms visual impressions: the Holy Bull and Lecomte were aggressively-run early, somewhat lackluster late, and resulted in Beyer Speed Figures lower than historic norms for those stakes. The 91 Beyer for Winslow Homer’s three-quarter length Holy Bull win over Jackson Bend was the third-lowest of the last 10 runnings of the race. The median Beyer for Holy Bull winners during that span is 98.5, with only 2001’s Radical Riley (90) and 2008’s Hey Byrn (88) rating lower. Pace-wise, the Holy Bull’s early fractions of :23.86 and :45.76 look odd, even considering the lack of runup at Gulfstream’s one-mile distance. The middle quarter of :21.90 is the third fastest of 729 races run at the one-turn distance (excluding eight races with omitted fractional times) since the track was reconfigured prior to the 2006 meeting. Taken by itself, that raises a red flag regarding the accuracy of the fractions, and the fact that none of the leading horses failed to meaningfully separate from the others during that second quarter invites further skepticism. As soon as I get back home to my timing software later this week, I’ll report back on the fractions. Using published fractions, the Moss Pace Figure line for the Holy Bull is 77-88-90 final 89. A good comparison point is the typical one-mile pacefigs in low- to mid-level allowance races for older horses, which also average in the vicinity of a 89 final figure on the pacefig scale. Those are 81-83-87. Thus the tempo accelerated from slower than that particular par in the first quarter to faster the next two quarters. But again, take those fractions with a grain of salt until verified. From my perspective, Jackson Bend ran a solidly better race than Winslow Homer. The margin of defeat can be entirely attributed to the four-pound weight difference (Jackson Bend 120, Winslow Homer 116), but Jackson Bend also ran two paths wider than Winslow Homer around most of the turn, and was closer to the pace as well. By projecting both horses to carry 120 pounds and incorporating ground loss into the equation, I’d rate Jackson Bend’s race as 92 on the Beyer scale compared to 88 for Winslow Homer, and give him additional credit for pace pressure. Lecomte winner Ron the Greek benefitted even more from a quick pace, rallying from next-to-last down the long Fair Grounds stretch. But like Winslow Homer, his Beyer Speed Figure of 90 doesn’t match up well with previous Lecomte runnings. The median for those last 10 runnings is 93.5, with only 2002’s Easyfromthegitgo (90), 2005’s Storm Surge (88) and 1999’s Some Actor (84) lower than Ron the Greek. The Lecomte line of 79-88-88 final 89 on the pacefig scale is decidedly faster across the board than the 73-81-86 pars for that winning number, boosting the stock of pacesetter Maximus Ruler, beaten 1½ lengths in second. Factoring in weight carried and ground loss could slide the Beyers more in favor of Ron the Greek, from 90-87 to about 90-84, since Ron the Greek traveled roughly three lanes farther outside during the race, but this doesn’t take into account the pace factor, which seemed to play a big role and clearly worked to the disadvantage of the runnerup.&nbsp;Fourth-place Cool Bullet gets credit for running three-wide on both turns and moving up to challenge in midstretch, but sat an ideal third behind the pace battle for the first six furlongs and still couldn’t get past Maximus Ruler. Inescapable bottom line: horses in both races will have to step up their games to have a meaningful impact on the first Saturday in May. Update: Lookin at Lucky http://www.drf.com/blogs/update-lookin-lucky Wed, 20 Jan 2010 00:27:51 +0000 Randy Moss 45513 at http://www.drf.com &#0160;&#0160; &#0160;&#0160;To trainer Bob Baffert, 2010 is starting off like the days when his barn was loaded with top-quality 3-year-olds seemingly every year.&#0160; This doesn’t assure him of a fourth Kentucky Derby victory, of course, but it beats the alternative. &#0160;&#0160;&#0160; At the head of his roster is the new juvenile champion: &#0160;LOOKIN AT LUCKY &#0160;Smart Strike-Private Feeling by Belong to Me&#0160;Owners- Karl Watson, Mike Pegram, Paul Weitman &#0160;Trainer- Bob Baffert &#0160;Jockey- Garrett Gomez &#0160;&#0160;Dec 19—Hol---Hollywood Futurity---1 1-16---1-¾----49-56-70&#0160; 86 &#0160;Nov 7-----SA---Breeders’ Cup Juv------1 1-16---2-hd---31-51-73&#0160; 89 &#0160;Oct 4------SA---Norfolk-------------------1 1-16---1-1¾--55-65-79&#0160; 89 &#0160;Sept 7----Dmr--Del Mar Futurity-------7 furs----1-1----58-73-86&#0160; 86 &#0160;Aug 9-----Dmr--Best Pal----------------6½ furs---1-¾---74-78-&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160; 87 &#0160;July 11---Hol---Maiden-------------------6 furs----1-¾---72-77-&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160; 85 &#0160; &#0160;&#0160; Lookin at Lucky didn’t win the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, but he should have.&#0160;&#0160;&#0160; He isn’t undefeated, but&#0160;he should be. &#0160;&#0160; &#0160;Lookin at Lucky&#0160;was so much the best at Santa Anita he gained stature in defeat.&#0160; Like Colonel John and Pioneerofthe Nile before him, he has competed only on synthetic surfaces and never on dirt.&#0160; But at this point, Lookin at Lucky has to be considered the early Derby favorite. &#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160; In the Breeders’ Cup, Lookin at Lucky’s No. 13 post position doomed him to an unacceptably wide trip:&#0160; four- to six-wide around the first turn and four- to five-wide on the second turn.&#0160; On ground loss alone, Lookin at Lucky could be judged five lengths superior than Juvenile winner Vale of York, who beat him by a head with a dream inside run. &#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160; But pace figures illustrate another element of his misfortune.&#0160; In an attempt to minimize the impact of the post position, Garrett Gomez eased Lookin at Lucky back leaving the gate in hopes of dropping behind the speed and angling closer to the inside.&#0160; The pace was slower than expected, however, and the bunched-up field left Gomez no room to maneuver.&#0160; Those tactics plus ground loss had Lookin at Lucky nearly nine lengths behind a slower-than-par pace.&#0160; Look above at his slower pace figures in the Juvenile. &#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160; In that race, at least, we were lookin’ at unlucky. &#0160;&#0160;&#0160; Six weeks later, Lookin at Lucky figured to dominate an overmatched Hollywood Futurity field.&#0160; And he benefited from a perfect trip.&#0160; But instead of running away with it, he seemed to flounder a bit late. &#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160; Trainer Bob Baffert believes he knows why.&#0160;He theorizes Lookin at Lucky eased up when he got to the lead in that race, and intends to ask permission to equip the colt with blinkers for his next scheduled start in the March 13 San Felipe Stakes. &#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160; “It looked like he would open five (lengths) on them easy, but he just shut it down,” Baffert said. “(Garrett) said he felt like a sitting duck.” &#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160; Baffert never considered blinkers for Lookin at Lucky at the beginning of his career because “he was such a smart horse.”&#0160; He briefly considered blinkers after the Oct. 4 Norfolk Stakes, in which he believed Lookin at Lucky coasted after getting to the front in the stretch, but ultimately chose not to tinker too much with the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile fast approaching. &#0160;&#0160; &#0160; &#0160; After the Hollywood Futurity, Baffert asked Gomez about adding the blinkers. Gomez replied that he was planning to recommend them to Baffert. Blinkers were added to Lookin at Lucky&#39;s repertoire in a subsequent workout, for which Gomez was in the saddle for feedback. &#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160; “I was afraid about him getting rank,” Baffert said. “But (Gomez) came back smiling and said, ‘I like this.’’’ &#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160; Baffert had indicated after the Hollywood Futurity victory that Lookin at Lucky could get at least one prep race on dirt prior to the Kentucky Derby, but now he says that appears doubtful. &#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160; “If the track were to change or he has a hiccup with training, I might take him somewhere else,” Baffert said. “I don’t know for sure, but right now, I don’t see him traveling. I can sit right here for the Santa Anita Derby.&#0160;He’s already done a lot, so I just have to keep him healthy and fit.&#0160; And he’s still developing, changing, starting to fill out more and growing.” &#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160; Another factor in Lookin at Lucky’s future schedule is the other talent in Baffert’s 3-year-old arsenal, including San Rafael winner Conveyance, maiden graduate Take Control (a son of A.P. Indy and Azeri), and Tiz Chrome. &#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160; “Those other horses are starting to catch up to (Lookin at Lucky) right now,” he said. “Take Control is a serious horse.&#0160; It took a long time for him to come along, but he’s caught up real fast. Tiz Chrome is another one.&#0160;&#0160;And Conveyance reminds me of Holy Bull.&#0160; Those horses will probably be shipping. But right now, I would probably run Lookin at Lucky (in the San Felipe) and then the Santa Anita Derby.” &#0160; &#0160;&#0160; &#0160; &#0160; Churchill juveniles, part 2 http://www.drf.com/blogs/churchill-juveniles-part-2 Fri, 01 Jan 2010 15:14:28 +0000 Randy Moss 45514 at http://www.drf.com &#0160;A couple more 2-year-olds from my review of the Churchill Downs meet - one you won&#39;t hear from this spring and one you might.&#0160;&#0160;Coming up next week, a pacefig analysis of Lookin at Lucky. THISKYHASNOLIMIT Owner- Cathy &amp; Bob Zollars, Mark WagnerTrainer- Steve AsmussenSky Mesa-Lovely Regina (A.P. Indy)Record 6-3-0-1&#0160;&#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160;Pacefig lineNov 28 CD---Ky Jockey Club---------1 1/16-- 6th by 11----- 62-77-85 final 82Nov 1 CD---Iroquois Stakes-----------1M-------1st by 1--------67-81-85 final 87Sept 19 Bel---Futurity Stakes---------7F--------3rd by 12--- --77-87-87 final 80Aug 20 Sar---Saratoga Special-------6 1/2F---8th by 25--- --92-92 &#0160; &#0160; &#0160;final 67July 4 CD---Maiden----------------------6F-------1st by 7----------85-82 &#0160; &#0160; &#0160;final 83June 11 CD--Maiden--------------------5F-------2nd by 2 3/4----88-87 &#0160; &#0160; &#0160;final 83 &#0160;&#0160; &#0160;Thiskyhasnolimit’s took the Iroquois at Churchill Downs, where the winning strategy appeared to be a change in running style. &#0160;But unfortunately, his dull Kentucky Jockey Club performance came with an excuse.&#0160;&#0160; &#0160; &quot;He came out of that race with a bone chip,&quot; trainer Steve Asmussen said. &quot;So he&#39;ll be on the sidelines for a while.&quot;&#0160;&#0160; &#0160; Thus, Thiskyhasnolimit won&#39;t be a Kentucky Derby contender, but he’ll be an interesting colt to watch when he eventually returns to the races. Prior to the Iroquois, he was asked to stay within close range of speedy D’Funnybone, which didn’t yield desired results, especially when he broke slowly in the Saratoga Special and was rushed into a fast pace. &#0160;But when he was allowed to settle in the Iroquois, he advanced with a four-wide turn move before proving strongest in the lane at 13-1 odds for an 85 Beyer Speed Figure. The Iroquois form was flattered when runnerup Uh Oh Bango was subsequently second in the Delta Jackpot with a 93 Beyer. In the Kentucky Jockey Club, he carried his head in the early running as if he was a bit uncomfortable, which proved out in the postrace diagnosis.&#0160;&#0160;&#0160; &#0160;Thiskyhasnolimit’s dam, Lovely Regina, is a half-sister to Bernardini, the Preakness, Travers and Jockey Club Gold Cup winner.&#0160;&#0160; &#0160;Pacefigs aren’t of much use in handicapping him, other than to illustrate how much differently he was ridden in his last two starts. DRYFLYOwner- Charles CellaTrainer- Lynn WhitingJump Start-Creeksider (Topsider)&#0160;&#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160;Pacefig lineNov 1 CD---Allowance----------------7F--------1st by 1 1/2---------90-90-91 final 89Oct 5 &#0160;Del---Allowance---------------6F---------7th by 8 3/4--------90-88 &#0160; &#0160; final 78Sept 1 Pha---Maiden-----------------5F---------1st by 6 1/2---------82-82 &#0160; &#0160; &#0160;final 81 &#0160;&#0160; Trainer Lynn Whiting found numerous diamonds in the rough for the late Cal Partee, such as 1992 Kentucky Derby winner Lil E. Tee, and he bought this gelding privately in Ocala on behalf of another prominent Arkansas name - Oaklawn Park owner Charles Cella. That Hot Springs connection plus Whiting’s trademark patience helps explain why Dryfly was not asked to tackle more seasoned distance horses in the Kentucky Jockey Club and is instead being prepared for a potential stakes debut in Oaklawn’s Jan. 18 Smarty Jones Stakes.&#0160;&#0160; &#0160;“Hopefully we’ll get him there all right,” Whiting said. “He stayed at Churchill Downs through December. The plan was to give him a break so that hopefully we’d kind of freshen him up bit and get a little weight on him to make a run at this Oaklawn series.&#0160;&#0160; &#0160;“He’s done everything right for me. He hasn’t missed too much that I would have otherwise wanted to see happen. He’s trained well and the weather was kind to us (in Kentucky). &#0160;The weather pattern (in Arkansas) doesn’t look real good, though. We’re getting a little weather coming in, so we may have to deal with some freezes, but the horse has done everything to satisfy me at this point.”&#0160;&#0160; &#0160; &#0160;Dryfly toyed with a maiden field in his debut at Philadelphia Park in September, then the next month showed nothing at Delaware Park after being bounced around leaving the gate. &#0160;Part of that trouble seemed to be of his own making: he’s been a step slow from the gate in his last two starts.&#0160;&#0160; &#0160; “He just wasn’t himself at all that day,” Whiting said. “I don’t know what was going on with him. But he came back and trained good, and at Churchill I fully expected he would rectify his previous race.”&#0160;&#0160; &#0160; And Dryfly did just that in his Nov. 1 Churchill Downs first-level allowance under Calvin Borel. &#0160;He rushed up after his somewhat sluggish break, then relaxed nicely on a clear lead. Great Attack moved alongside to put a head in front of Dryfly nearing the quarter pole, but Dryfly battled back on the rail to edge clear in the last furlong. The pacefig line was solid; Churchill’s average allowance for 2-year-olds at the 7 furlong distance goes in 83-86-87 final 87, so Dryfly was solidly faster than par across the board. Also, Great Attack returned four weeks later to win a Churchill maiden by three lengths in a 90 Beyer.&#0160;&#0160; &#0160; Dryfly was gelded last year because of an undescended testicle. Injuries aborted the racing career of his sire Jump Start after age 2, but he is a son of A.P. Indy from a solid Overbrook family. Dam Creeksider retired a maiden after seven undistinguished starts.&#0160;&#0160; &#0160; “He’s a quick horse, but he relaxes well,” Whiting said of Dryfly. “He’s a horse who in his training in the mornings, he’ll go off with a little authority and then prick his ears and glide along, and when you punch the button he’s there.&#0160;&#0160; &#0160;“I think he’ll run on. &#0160;Whether he’s a mile-and-a-quarter horse or not remains to be seen. But I think he’s got every chance to get a mile-and-a-sixteenth or a mile-and-an-eighth.” Churchill's best 2-year-olds http://www.drf.com/blogs/churchills-best-2-year-olds Fri, 18 Dec 2009 17:01:28 +0000 Randy Moss 45515 at http://www.drf.com My blogging can be as frequent as my “tweets” or posts on my Facebook page. Which is to say, the schedule of my blog posts can be somewhat erratic – or in the case of tweets or Facebook, nonexistent. Having said that, while getting into the Christmas blogging spirit I recently reviewed some of the best performances at the Churchill Downs meeting by male 2-year-olds on dirt, horses who could possibly surface in Triple Crown preps. We’ll start with the obvious one: SUPER SAVER Owner- WinStar Farm Trainer- Todd Pletcher Maria’s Mon-Supercharger by A.P. Indy Record: 4-2-1-0 Nov 28 CD--- Kentucky Jockey Club---1 1/16--- 1st by 5----pacefigs 85-89-89 final 90 Oct 10 Bel--- Champagne-----------------1 mile---4th by 2----pacefigs 82-83-89 final 87 Sept 11 Bel—Maiden----------------------1 mile----1st by 7----pacefigs 86-89-87 final 87 Super Saver looked good winning the Kentucky Jockey Club with his usual frontrunning style, getting a Beyer Speed Figure of 93. Under little encouragement from Calvin Borel, his natural speed took him to a daylight lead he maintained for six furlongs while going easily. Borel appeared to give him a bit of a second-turn breather, and he willingly allowed Activity Report and Worldly to pull alongside at the 5/16ths. Super Saver was then shaken up straightening for home, and quickly opened up under typically strong encouragement from Borel. The field Super Saver whipped was decent, considering runnerup William’s Kitten had just returned from the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, where he lost by 4 ¾ lengths while finishing eighth. This can’t be done routinely simply because of the time involved, but I compared Super Saver’s line with the average pacefig line of the last 10 runnings of the Kentucky Jockey Club. His line you can see above – 85-89-89-90. The 10-year average is 83-89-90-90. Pretty normal, except that decade included winners Dollar Bill, Repent, Soto, The Cliff’s Edge, Greater Good, Anak Nakal and Beethoven, stretch runners an average of more than five lengths back at the first two calls. Only two other winners of the race during that span – Private Vow (2005) and Tiz Wonderful (2006) – were on or near the pace, and Super Saver ran nearly two lengths faster than both at the first call. Private Vow’s paceline was 79-83-90-91 and Tiz Wonderful’s was 79-86-90-93.Thus Super Saver would appear to be as relevant as those other Kentucky Jockey Club winners, perhaps even slightly more so, although – and this is a big “although” – we don’t know yet whether he’s a one-dimensional frontrunner. Pedigree-wise, Super Saver is super solid. Maria’s Mon has already sired a Kentucky Derby winner in Monarchos. Supercharger once was a part of the Phipps breeding empire, and was purchased at auction carrying Super Saver in utero. Super Saver is Supercharger’s third foal and first stakes winner, but Supercharger is a full-sister to three graded winners: Godolphin’s brilliant Jerome winner Girolamo; Daydreaming, who competed in six Grade 1 stakes races and placed in two of them; and Accelerator, second in Captain Bodgit’s Wood Memorial and third in Wild Rush’s Metropolitan. Beneath those horses on the pedigree page are the expected assortment of Phipps stakes stars. Four or five more Churchill Downs 2-year-old are to come. Presumably before the Derby. Just kidding. Slower figures for Zenyatta? http://www.drf.com/blogs/slower-figures-zenyatta Wed, 25 Nov 2009 22:35:02 +0000 Randy Moss 45517 at http://www.drf.com &#0160;&#0160; &#0160;I’m not weighing in on the Horse of the Year debate - yet. But allow me to offer this opinion: those who use Beyer Speed Figures as the primary gauge of Zenyatta’s talents are barking up the wrong tree.&#0160;&#0160; &#0160;The effect of pace on Zenyatta’s figures, which is intertwined with the synthetic surfaces she primarily ran over, makes them useless in comparing her talent level to Rachel Alexandra&#39;s.&#0160;&#0160; &#0160; Anyone who has computed speed or pace figs can testify that races with a fast pace are more likely to earn a higher final number. A one-mile race with a six-furlong fraction of 1:10 can fall apart in the final quarter-mile and end up with a final time of 1:37. But the same horses traveling in 1:15 would need a world-class finish to stop the clock at 1:38. In a nutshell, that describes the figure differences between Rachel and Zenyatta.&#0160;&#0160; &#0160; Many of Zenyatta’s races were so hopelessly slow-paced, she couldn’t possibly have matched Rachel Alexandra’s dirt figures. And those paces were actually slower than many realize; synthetic tracks are typically faster than dirt tracks, thus a half-mile fraction of :49 at Santa Anita is more like :50 at Churchill Downs. Because synthetic surfaces are more kind to come-from-behinders, Mike Smith permitted Zenyatta to lag far behind those crawling paces. And Smith’s confidence in her superiority led him to usually take her six- to seven-wide, avoiding traffic but slowing her figures more. It is a testament to Zenyatta’s ability she ran the numbers she did.&#0160;&#0160; &#0160; Could pace possibly make that much difference in final numbers? Absolutely.&#0160;&#0160; &#0160; Zenyatta&#39;s half-mile pace figure in the 1 1/16-mile Lady&#39;s Secret was approximately 27 lengths slower than Rachel Alexandra&#39;s half-mile figure from the 1 1/8-mile Woodward. Think that might have impacted Zenyatta&#39;s final fig?&#0160;&#0160; &#0160; Also, look at Life is Sweet, who employed a similar but somewhat less-dramatic running style as her stablemate Zenyatta, always finishing behind her, as did everyone else. When Careless Jewel was a runaway on the front end in Friday’s Breeders‘ Cup Ladies Classic, a synthetic stakes suddenly had a dirt-style pace scenario, and Life is Sweet’s Beyer Speed Figure leaped to a career-high 107. &#0160;&#0160; &#0160; In the Classic, Zenyatta saw a more moderate pace than that, but it was Dr. Fager-like compared to what she was accustomed to. Her final figure was a 112, much more in line with what we might expect from, say, Rachel Alexandra.&#0160;&#0160; &#0160; This doesn’t mean Zenyatta is better than Rachel Alexandra, or more deserving of Horse of the Year, just that speed handicappers should adjust their thinking this time around.&#0160;&#0160; &#0160; In handicapping, speed figures are indeed the way, the truth and the light. But sometimes you need to know when to pull another club out of the bag. Breeders' Cup by the pace figures http://www.drf.com/blogs/breeders-cup-pace-figures Wed, 11 Nov 2009 00:12:37 +0000 Randy Moss 45518 at http://www.drf.com A look at the Breeders’ Cup main-track races from a pace figure perspective. All figs below are on the Moss Pace Figure scale.&#0160; Included are pacefigs for this year’s running, par pacefigs associated with that final figure, plus the pacefig lines from last year’s running and the local prep race at Santa Anita, at the same distance when applicable. The Juvenile Fillies came up a tad faster than par from start to finish, but slower-paced at the first call than the Oak Leaf Stakes (one reason Always a Princess was well-supported) and not as strongly run as last year. &#0160; Juv Fillies ’09 (She B Wild):&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160; 58-72-83/88 &#0160; Par:&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160; 55-67-79/88 &#0160; Juv Fillies ’08 (Stardom Bound):&#0160; 69-77-87/90 &#0160; Oak Leaf ’09 (Blind Luck):&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160; 70-69-79/88 Meanwhile, the Juvenile (Vale of York) had a slow-early, fast-late shape compared to par, compared to last year’s running and especially compared to the Norfolk Stakes. This makes runnerup Lookin At Lucky look even better in hindsight. &#0160;&#0160; Juvenile ’09 (Vale of York):&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160; 52-62-77/89&#0160;&#0160; &#0160;&#0160; Par:&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160; 57-67-80/89 &#0160;&#0160; Juvenile ’08 (Midshipman):&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160; 55-66-80/89&#0160;&#0160; &#0160;&#0160; Norfolk ’09 (Lookin at Lucky):&#0160;&#0160;&#0160; 67-70-82/89 Last year, the Filly &amp; Mare Sprint had a swift pace that aided Ventura’s late kick.&#0160; Without Indian Blessing to push the pace this year, you could see the handwriting on the wall.&#0160; There wasn’t actually a seven-furlong prep at Oak Tree, so I went back to the Santa Monica Jan. 31 for another comparison. &#0160;&#0160; Filly &amp; Mare Sprint ’09 (Informed Decision):&#0160; 70-81-92/94&#0160; &#0160;&#0160; Par:&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160; 76-84-93/94 &#0160;&#0160; Filly &amp; Mare Sprint ’08 (Ventura):&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160; 79-89-94/95 &#0160;&#0160; Santa Monica ’09 (Ventura):&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160; 68-79-90/92 The 2008 Sprint, won by Midnight Lute, was also faster-paced - at least at the quarter-mile call - than this year’s running, which stayed close to par. &#0160;&#0160; Sprint ’09 (Dancing in Silks): 84-91/95 &#0160;&#0160; Par:&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160; 84-89/95 &#0160;&#0160; Sprint ’08 (Midnight Lute):&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160; 91-91-97 &#0160;&#0160; Ancient Title ’09 (Gayego):&#0160;&#0160;&#0160; 87-88/93 The Dirt Mile was slow-early, fast-late.&#0160; Albertus Maximus last year won a race that was fast-early, slow-late. &#0160;&#0160;&#0160; Dirt Mile ’09 (Furthest Land):&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160; 56-72-86/95 &#0160;&#0160;&#0160; Par:&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160; 63-74-86/95 &#0160;&#0160;&#0160; Dirt Mile ’08 (Albertus Maximus): 75-82-90/93 Need any further evidence that Careless Jewel was a runaway train Saturday?&#0160; No wonder Life Is Sweet looked so strong with her 107 Beyer.&#0160; That race, plus Zenyatta’s victory in the Classic with a 112 Beyer, demonstrates just how much the crawling pace in recent filly-and-mare preps in Southern California was affecting the final figures. &#0160;&#0160; Ladies Classic ’09 (Life Is Sweet):&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160; 66-88-95-94/95 &#0160;&#0160; Par:&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160; 58-68-82-93/95 &#0160;&#0160; Ladies Classic ’08 (Zenyatta):&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160; 55-62-80-90/94 &#0160;&#0160; Lady’s Secret ’09 (Zenyatta at 1 1/16m):&#0160;&#0160; 39-56-77-xx/92 &#0160;And Zenyatta’s mad dash through the stretch in the Classic came after a pace that was not substantially quicker than the 2008 running. &#0160;&#0160; Classic ’09 (Zenyatta):&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160; 52-63-77-89/97 &#0160;&#0160; Par:&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160; 56-66-81-91/97 &#0160;&#0160; Classic ’08 (Raven’s Pass):&#0160;&#0160;&#0160;&#0160; 53-61-73-87/96 &#0160;&#0160; Santa Anita Hcp ’09 (Einstein): 46-61-72-86/94