http://www.drf.com/blogs/211/feed en http://www.drf.com/blogs/preakness-day-after The two big surprises in the Preakness were how Oxbow pulled off his upset, and how empty Orb was Handicapping Preakness Sun, 19 May 2013 14:22:53 +0000 Mike Watchmaker 292819 at http://www.drf.com <div class="field field-type-number-integer field-field-carryover"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> 0 </div> </div> </div> <div class="field field-type-nodereference field-field-blog-author"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> Mike Watchmaker </div> </div> </div> <p>What was so surprising about the outcome of Saturday’s Preakness Stakes at Pimlico was not the fact that it was Oxbow who engineered the 15-1 upset.</p> <p>Going into the Preakness, there was a wide consensus  that once you got past odds-on favorite Orb, you could have thrown a blanket over the rest of the field, save for Titletown Five, who would have been 80-1 instead of 22-1 if real-world betting in big races wasn’t a thing of the past.</p><p><a href="http://www.drf.com/blogs/preakness-day-after" target="_blank">read more</a></p> http://www.drf.com/blogs/preakness-day-pimlico-1 I hope we see an even main track from the get-go today Handicapping Preakness Orb Sat, 18 May 2013 13:37:40 +0000 Mike Watchmaker 292650 at http://www.drf.com <div class="field field-type-number-integer field-field-carryover"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> 0 </div> </div> </div> <div class="field field-type-nodereference field-field-blog-author"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> Mike Watchmaker </div> </div> </div> <p>Happy Preakness Day from Pimlico, where it is overcast, and security to get into the track is tight. There is a chance of showers here today, but probably not enough to impact track conditions. Temperatures are predicted to top out in the high 60s to low 70s.</p> <p>Speaking of track conditions, I though the inside on the main track here was dead on Friday. One local whose opinion I respect said it has been that way all meet, especially in sprint races. So it’s a good idea to pay extra attention on how the track is playing early on.</p><p><a href="http://www.drf.com/blogs/preakness-day-pimlico-1" target="_blank">read more</a></p> http://www.drf.com/blogs/freedom-child-preakness-thoughts Whether Freedom Child ran Belmont Stakes-good in the Peter Pan is another matter Handicapping Preakness Sun, 12 May 2013 14:23:45 +0000 Mike Watchmaker 292068 at http://www.drf.com <div class="field field-type-number-integer field-field-carryover"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> 0 </div> </div> </div> <div class="field field-type-nodereference field-field-blog-author"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> Mike Watchmaker </div> </div> </div> <p>I find it amazing how apparently so many people seem willing to side with Peter Pan Stakes winner Freedom Child in a match up against Orb – even if the Kentucky Derby winner takes the Preakness – in the June 8 Belmont Stakes. And I say that as someone who liked Freedom Child in the Peter Pan.</p><p><a href="http://www.drf.com/blogs/freedom-child-preakness-thoughts" target="_blank">read more</a></p> http://www.drf.com/blogs/pimlico-tight-turned-and-speed-favoring-nope It is my fear that we are going to be subjected to a “discussion” as to whether Orb can overcome the tight-turned, speed-favoring nature of Pimlico Handicapping Preakness Tue, 07 May 2013 16:13:25 +0000 Mike Watchmaker 291678 at http://www.drf.com <div class="field field-type-number-integer field-field-carryover"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> 0 </div> </div> </div> <div class="field field-type-nodereference field-field-blog-author"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> Mike Watchmaker </div> </div> </div> <p>Kentucky Derby winner Orb is, as we all know, a closer. So it is my fear that in the run up to the Preakness Stakes, we are going to be subjected to a “discussion” as to whether Orb can overcome the tight-turned, speed-favoring nature of Pimlico Race Course.</p> <p>Here’s a tip: If you hear anyone – commentator, horseman, fellow handicapper, or guy babbling under the tv at your favorite simulcasting emporium – say Pimlico is a tight-turned track, you can be certain that, at least in this case, they don’t know what they are talking about.</p><p><a href="http://www.drf.com/blogs/pimlico-tight-turned-and-speed-favoring-nope" target="_blank">read more</a></p> http://www.drf.com/blogs/derby-day-churchill-downs The big question is, will it rain hard enough, long enough, to turn a track that is currently fast into something worse Handicapping Kentucky Derby Sat, 04 May 2013 14:26:25 +0000 Mike Watchmaker 291402 at http://www.drf.com <div class="field field-type-number-integer field-field-carryover"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> 0 </div> </div> </div> <div class="field field-type-nodereference field-field-blog-author"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> Mike Watchmaker </div> </div> </div> <p>Good Kentucky Derby Day morning from Churchill Downs, where showers began just after 9 am, and temperatures are holding in the low 60s.</p> <p>Of course, the weather, and its potential effect on racing conditions, is a big topic here. We are going to get rain. The big question is, will it rain hard enough, long enough, to turn a track that is currently fast into something worse? For what it's worth, one local meteorologist said it will turn nasty here around 3 pm with heavy rain.</p><p><a href="http://www.drf.com/blogs/derby-day-churchill-downs" target="_blank">read more</a></p> http://www.drf.com/blogs/oaks-day-churchill-downs Conditions here Friday are perfect, but there remains concern for tomorrow Handicapping Fri, 03 May 2013 14:37:48 +0000 Mike Watchmaker 291248 at http://www.drf.com <div class="field field-type-number-integer field-field-carryover"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> 0 </div> </div> </div> <div class="field field-type-nodereference field-field-blog-author"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> Mike Watchmaker </div> </div> </div> <p>Good morning on Kentucky Oaks Day from Churchill Downs, where it is partly sunny with very comfortable temperatures. In other words, conditions here Friday are perfect, but there remains concern for tomorrow. Rain is in the forecast. But even the experts don't seem to know if it will be just showers, which shouldn't affect anything considering how the main track here handles water, or a steadier rain, or even thunderstorm, which of course would adversely impact conditions. We will just have to wait and see. Wet or dry, we will also have to see how the track plays.<p><a href="http://www.drf.com/blogs/oaks-day-churchill-downs" target="_blank">read more</a></p> http://www.drf.com/blogs/derby-favorite UPDATE: I have decided to flip-flop Verrazano and Orb on my DRF Kentucky Derby line and make Orb the 5-1 favorite Handicapping Kentucky Derby Verrazano Sun, 28 Apr 2013 16:03:10 +0000 Mike Watchmaker 290674 at http://www.drf.com <div class="field field-type-number-integer field-field-carryover"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> 0 </div> </div> </div> <div class="field field-type-nodereference field-field-blog-author"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> Mike Watchmaker </div> </div> </div> <p>I had an interesting conversation the other day with my Derby Watch colleague Jay Privman about something he tweeted last week. Privman wondered aloud in cyberspace whether Verrazano, who has been future book favorite for the Kentucky Derby everywhere for virtually the entire prep season, would actually be the betting favorite in real Derby wagering, which begins on Friday.</p><p><a href="http://www.drf.com/blogs/derby-favorite" target="_blank">read more</a></p> http://www.drf.com/blogs/weekend-notes-0 Game On Dude dodged a bullet Saturday night Handicapping Sun, 21 Apr 2013 21:31:17 +0000 Mike Watchmaker 289989 at http://www.drf.com <div class="field field-type-number-integer field-field-carryover"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> 0 </div> </div> </div> <div class="field field-type-nodereference field-field-blog-author"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> Mike Watchmaker </div> </div> </div> <p>Game On Dude dodged a bullet Saturday night in the Charles Town Classic. Whether it was because he really was slipping all over the track as jockey Mike Smith claimed after the race, or he didn’t like the tight turns, the lights, or maybe West Virginia’s clean air, Game On Dude clearly did not run his race. Clubhouse Ride, who was beaten 6 1-2 and 7 3-4 lengths when second to Game On Dude in the San Antonio and Santa Anita Handicap, respectively, in their last two starts, was beaten only a half length when second Saturday night.<p><a href="http://www.drf.com/blogs/weekend-notes-0" target="_blank">read more</a></p> http://www.drf.com/blogs/blue-grass-arkansas-derby-and-other-notes The sense is Saturday’s Blue Grass and Arkansas Derby will fall short of being the most impactful final Kentucky Derby preps we have had this year Handicapping Sun, 14 Apr 2013 16:05:57 +0000 Mike Watchmaker 289330 at http://www.drf.com <div class="field field-type-number-integer field-field-carryover"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> 0 </div> </div> </div> <div class="field field-type-nodereference field-field-blog-author"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> Mike Watchmaker </div> </div> </div> <p>We will find out for sure when it all plays out three weeks from Saturday at Churchill Downs, but the sense is Saturday’s Blue Grass at Keeneland and Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park will fall well short of being the most impactful final Kentucky Derby preps we have had this year.</p> <p>In recent weeks, it was immediately apparent that the Wood Memorial, Santa Anita Derby, and Florida Derby were top-level preps for this Derby because they either featured horses of obvious quality, or were strongly run, or both. But the Blue Grass and Arkansas Derby? Not so much.</p><p><a href="http://www.drf.com/blogs/blue-grass-arkansas-derby-and-other-notes" target="_blank">read more</a></p> http://www.drf.com/blogs/wood-sa-derby-3yo-fillies-thoughts I think Verrazano ran better in the Wood than many are giving him credit for Handicapping Kentucky Derby Sun, 07 Apr 2013 15:53:25 +0000 Mike Watchmaker 288640 at http://www.drf.com <div class="field field-type-number-integer field-field-carryover"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> 0 </div> </div> </div> <div class="field field-type-nodereference field-field-blog-author"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> Mike Watchmaker </div> </div> </div> <p>Like a lot of folks, I wasn’t bowled over by Verrazano’s victory in Saturday’s Wood Memorial at Aqueduct. At first, anyway. I mean, I walked away from the Wood giving Verrazano credit for remaining undefeated, winning over a new track, and beating two opponents in Normandy Invasion and Vyjack who were far better horses than he had faced before. Still, Verrazano had to work hard to score after the easiest trip he could have ever asked for, tracking a very slow early pace.<p><a href="http://www.drf.com/blogs/wood-sa-derby-3yo-fillies-thoughts" target="_blank">read more</a></p> http://www.drf.com/blogs/quick-thoughts-saturdays-action A lot happened on Saturday. Let’s first touch on the Kentucky Derby preps Handicapping Sun, 31 Mar 2013 00:13:48 +0000 Mike Watchmaker 287992 at http://www.drf.com <div class="field field-type-number-integer field-field-carryover"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> 0 </div> </div> </div> <div class="field field-type-nodereference field-field-blog-author"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> Mike Watchmaker </div> </div> </div> <p>A lot happened on Saturday. Let’s first touch on the Kentucky Derby preps:</p><p><a href="http://www.drf.com/blogs/quick-thoughts-saturdays-action" target="_blank">read more</a></p> http://www.drf.com/blogs/spiral-sunland-derby-thoughts The vibe with Govenor Charlie feels totally different Handicapping Mon, 25 Mar 2013 13:19:03 +0000 Mike Watchmaker 287375 at http://www.drf.com <div class="field field-type-number-integer field-field-carryover"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> 0 </div> </div> </div> <div class="field field-type-nodereference field-field-blog-author"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> Mike Watchmaker </div> </div> </div> <p>The urge to dismiss Saturday’s Spiral Stakes as any sort of meaningful prep for the Kentucky Derby this year is strong. After all, upset winner Black Onyx’s previous biggest claim to fame was an entry level allowance win on the turf at Gulfstream in his prior start. Hey, unlike 369 of his contemporaries, Black Onyx wasn’t even a Triple Crown nominee before the Spiral, and his final time was slow enough to result in an uninspiring winning Beyer Figure of only 90.</p><p><a href="http://www.drf.com/blogs/spiral-sunland-derby-thoughts" target="_blank">read more</a></p> http://www.drf.com/blogs/another-look-new-derby-points-system For the most part, I like the new points system instituted by Churchill Downs that will be used to determine the starting field in the Kentucky Derby Handicapping Kentucky Derby Wed, 20 Mar 2013 16:06:08 +0000 Mike Watchmaker 286953 at http://www.drf.com <div class="field field-type-number-integer field-field-carryover"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> 0 </div> </div> </div> <div class="field field-type-nodereference field-field-blog-author"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> Mike Watchmaker </div> </div> </div> <p>For the most part, I like the new points system instituted by Churchill Downs that will be used to determine the starting field in the Kentucky Derby should more than 20 horses enter. I like that this system emphasizes current form over past accomplishment by assigning higher point values to final-round Derby preps. I also like how this system puts second-tier preps with slots-fueled purses, such as Sunday’s Grade 3, $800,000 Sunland Derby, into better perspective.<p><a href="http://www.drf.com/blogs/another-look-new-derby-points-system" target="_blank">read more</a></p> http://www.drf.com/blogs/notes-rebel-bright-thought-and-other-stuff The initial impression is the Rebel will join a list of suspect races for this particular 3-year-old crop Handicapping Sun, 17 Mar 2013 17:07:37 +0000 Mike Watchmaker 286799 at http://www.drf.com <div class="field field-type-number-integer field-field-carryover"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> 0 </div> </div> </div> <div class="field field-type-nodereference field-field-blog-author"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> Mike Watchmaker </div> </div> </div> <p>Oxbow ran well in narrow defeat in the Rebel. He was close to a lively pace, and the early pace player who was closest to Oxbow at the end, 6-5 favorite Super Ninety Nine, finished a large 8 1-4 lengths behind him in fifth. Den’s Legacy also ran well finishing third in the Rebel, beaten two lengths for it all. Den’s Legacy was on the rail every step of the way, but the rail is often not the place to be at Oaklawn, and that appeared to be the case again Saturday.</p><p><a href="http://www.drf.com/blogs/notes-rebel-bright-thought-and-other-stuff" target="_blank">read more</a></p> http://www.drf.com/blogs/saturday-stakes-notes The biggest “Wow” moment of the day was when Fort Larned dumped Brian Hernandez Jr. one stride out of the gate in the Gulfstream Park Handicap Handicapping Sun, 10 Mar 2013 14:39:35 +0000 Mike Watchmaker 286224 at http://www.drf.com <div class="field field-type-number-integer field-field-carryover"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> 0 </div> </div> </div> <div class="field field-type-nodereference field-field-blog-author"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> Mike Watchmaker </div> </div> </div> <p>I know that Verrazano’s win in the Tampa Bay Derby and the upset of Flashback in the San Felipe were important happenings on Saturday. But for me, the biggest “Wow” moment of the day was when Fort Larned dumped jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. one stride out of the gate in the Gulfstream Park Handicap.</p><p><a href="http://www.drf.com/blogs/saturday-stakes-notes" target="_blank">read more</a></p> http://www.drf.com/blogs/game-dude-beholder-vyjack-and-other-thoughts Game On Dude and Beholder were terrific winning the Santa Anita Handicap and Las Virgenes Saturday. I mean, they were all class Handicapping Sun, 03 Mar 2013 16:32:59 +0000 Mike Watchmaker 285644 at http://www.drf.com <div class="field field-type-number-integer field-field-carryover"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> 0 </div> </div> </div> <div class="field field-type-nodereference field-field-blog-author"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> Mike Watchmaker </div> </div> </div> <p>Game On Dude and Beholder were terrific winning the Santa Anita Handicap and Las Virgenes Saturday. I mean, they were all class. Game On Dude has always been a little iffy at 10 furlongs, but not in this Big Cap as he won by a city block. And Beholder proved her upset loss in the Santa Ynez in January was an aberration as she scored with total authority.</p><p><a href="http://www.drf.com/blogs/game-dude-beholder-vyjack-and-other-thoughts" target="_blank">read more</a></p> http://www.drf.com/blogs/first-impressions-saturdays-stakes-gulfstream-and-fair-grounds Hello from sunny, warm Gulfstream Park Handicapping Sun, 24 Feb 2013 01:00:13 +0000 Mike Watchmaker 285047 at http://www.drf.com <div class="field field-type-number-integer field-field-carryover"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> 0 </div> </div> </div> <div class="field field-type-nodereference field-field-blog-author"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> Mike Watchmaker </div> </div> </div> <p>Hello from sunny, warm Gulfstream Park, where I offer some thoughts on the Saturday’s stakes that were just run both here and at Fair Grounds:</p> <p>As a person who liked Orb in the Fountain of Youth, I still kind of like him after he got up to beat Violence. But I like Violence a lot more Saturday night than I did at any time before.</p><p><a href="http://www.drf.com/blogs/first-impressions-saturdays-stakes-gulfstream-and-fair-grounds" target="_blank">read more</a></p> http://www.drf.com/blogs/royal-delta-and-san-vicente Royal Delta is a very interesting horse Handicapping Mon, 18 Feb 2013 15:15:42 +0000 Mike Watchmaker 284522 at http://www.drf.com <div class="field field-type-number-integer field-field-carryover"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> 0 </div> </div> </div> <div class="field field-type-nodereference field-field-blog-author"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> Mike Watchmaker </div> </div> </div> <p>Royal Delta is a very interesting horse, and not only because she is a two-time champion, and obviously top class.</p> <p>Most race horses follow a traditional career arc. Horses improve from 2 to 3 and often from 3 to 4 due more to the physical maturation process than because of racing experience, although the latter does help. Then physical maturation eventually plateaus, as does performance, and if a horse sticks around long enough, you will see inevitable decline.</p><p><a href="http://www.drf.com/blogs/royal-delta-and-san-vicente" target="_blank">read more</a></p> http://www.drf.com/blogs/point-entry-graydar-and-kentucky-derby-future-wager A few weekend thoughts Handicapping Mon, 11 Feb 2013 13:51:46 +0000 Mike Watchmaker 283931 at http://www.drf.com <div class="field field-type-number-integer field-field-carryover"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> 0 </div> </div> </div> <div class="field field-type-nodereference field-field-blog-author"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> Mike Watchmaker </div> </div> </div> <p>A few weekend thoughts:</p> <p>I understand why people might say that, given the way the race unfolded, Animal Kingdom was best in finishing second to Point of Entry in Saturday’s Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap. I just don’t agree with it. At all.</p><p><a href="http://www.drf.com/blogs/point-entry-graydar-and-kentucky-derby-future-wager" target="_blank">read more</a></p> http://www.drf.com/blogs/saturday-3-year-old-thoughts I would think after Saturday, Kentucky Derby future book odds and personal Derby rankings everywhere underwent major resets Handicapping Kentucky Derby Sun, 03 Feb 2013 18:07:44 +0000 Mike Watchmaker 283296 at http://www.drf.com <div class="field field-type-number-integer field-field-carryover"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> 0 </div> </div> </div> <div class="field field-type-nodereference field-field-blog-author"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> Mike Watchmaker </div> </div> </div> <p>I would think after Saturday, Kentucky Derby future book odds and personal Derby rankings everywhere underwent major resets. Winning performances like the ones we got from Verrazano in a Gulfstream allowance race, Flashback in the Robert B. Lewis at Santa Anita, and Revolutionary in the Withers at Aqueduct will tend to do that.</p><p><a href="http://www.drf.com/blogs/saturday-3-year-old-thoughts" target="_blank">read more</a></p>