DRF.com Blogs: Brad Free http://www.drf.com/blogs/200/feed en Zombie in the darkness http://www.drf.com/blogs/zombie-darkness The top sprinter in California dazzled Saturday in an early-morning workout at Santa Anita. Breeders' Cup Sprint Sat, 29 Oct 2011 14:52:53 +0000 Brad Free 237304 at http://www.drf.com <div class="field field-type-nodereference field-field-blog-author"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> Brad Free </div> </div> </div> <p>Activity at the Santa Anita stables was minimal at 5 a.m. Saturday. It was dark, after all.</p> <p>But trainer Bill Spawr always starts early. His first set went to the training track at 4:45. The main track opened at 5.</p> <p>The morning surface is fresh, one reason Spawr prefers to train early. That includes the big horse.</p> <p>Amazombie was scheduled Saturday for his final workout before shipping to Churchill Downs for the Breeders’ Cup Sprint.</p><p><a href="http://www.drf.com/blogs/zombie-darkness" target="_blank">read more</a></p> Notes on a program http://www.drf.com/blogs/notes-program

The handicapping notebook is full again, with stuff like this …

 Handicapping Thu, 06 Oct 2011 15:57:10 +0000 Brad Free 233562 at http://www.drf.com <div class="field field-type-nodereference field-field-blog-author"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> Brad Free </div> </div> </div> <p>The handicapping notebook is full again, with stuff like this …</p> <p><strong>#</strong> Trevor Denman, the voice of Santa Anita and also the Breeders’ Cup, cannot be two places at the same time. So when Denman goes to Churchill Downs BC week, a skilled substitute will take his place. John Lies, track announcer at Lone Star and simulcast host at Del Mar, will be the voice of Santa Anita during Breeders’ Cup week.</p><p><a href="http://www.drf.com/blogs/notes-program" target="_blank">read more</a></p> California reflections http://www.drf.com/blogs/california-reflections

Questions were answered Saturday in four Breeders’ Cup prep races at Santa Anita.

 Columnists Breeders' Cup Sun, 02 Oct 2011 01:35:38 +0000 Brad Free 233309 at http://www.drf.com <div class="field field-type-nodereference field-field-blog-author"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> Brad Free </div> </div> </div> <p>Drill got beat and Blind Luck finished off the board before order was restored at Santa Anita. Here is a review of the four Breeder’s Cup prep races Saturday in California.</p> <p><em><strong>Norfolk Stakes, race 5</strong></em></p> <p>Drill got hammered to 3-5 but finished second as Creative Cause ($5.80) turned the tables with a perfect-trip win in the mile and a sixteenth race that was the first route for both colts.</p><p><a href="http://www.drf.com/blogs/california-reflections" target="_blank">read more</a></p> One tough sequence http://www.drf.com/blogs/one-tough-sequence

A difficult Del Mar pick six begins Sunday with a $145,934 carryover. My advice? Wait for a possible double carryover. For bettors that insist …

 Del Mar Sun, 07 Aug 2011 03:11:37 +0000 Brad Free 126629 at http://www.drf.com <div class="field field-type-nodereference field-field-blog-author"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> Brad Free </div> </div> </div> <p>You thought Saturday was tough?</p> <p>Del Mar expects $1 million to be wagered Sunday on the pick six, chasing a $145,934 carryover. “New money” usually is six to seven times the carryover amount.</p> <p>The problem with Sunday’s sequence (races 5-10) is every race is difficult. That creates good gambling opportunites on a race-by-race basis, but stringing together six straight might be impossible. Here is a quick look, anyway.</p><p><a href="http://www.drf.com/blogs/one-tough-sequence" target="_blank">read more</a></p> Del Mar pick six preview http://www.drf.com/blogs/del-mar-pick-six-preview

The carryover into Sunday is $169,635. Bettors are expected to add another $1 million to the pool. Looking for non-favorite to single?

 Del Mar Sun, 31 Jul 2011 02:14:17 +0000 Brad Free 126064 at http://www.drf.com <div class="field field-type-nodereference field-field-blog-author"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> Brad Free </div> </div> </div> <p>The pick-six carryover from Saturday into Sunday is $169,635.</p> <p>Bettors are expected to add another $1 million to the pot. Looking for an inconspicuous single? The last three races offer possibilities.</p> <p>Race 7 is a maiden-40 starter allowance sprint for fillies and mares, and if Cactus House runs back to her maiden win she can win as the 7-2 second choice on the morning line.</p> <p>Race 8 is the Grade 1 Bing Crosby for sprinters Smiling Tiger, Euroears and Amazombie. Comeback works by Euroears suggest he can be gone as the 5-2 second choice.</p><p><a href="http://www.drf.com/blogs/del-mar-pick-six-preview" target="_blank">read more</a></p> Seven feet = speed bias? http://www.drf.com/blogs/seven-feet-speed-bias

The turf rails were put up Friday at Del Mar, and longshot front-runners stole a pair. Is more of the same in store this weekend?

 Del Mar Sat, 30 Jul 2011 18:19:29 +0000 Brad Free 126014 at http://www.drf.com <div class="field field-type-nodereference field-field-blog-author"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> Brad Free </div> </div> </div> <p>The turf rails were put up Friday at Del Mar, and longshot front-runners stole a pair. Is more of the same in store this weekend?</p> <p>The turf rails were down the first seven days of racing, during which time not a single grass race at a mile, or a mile and a sixteenth, was won by the pacesetter. That was 15 races through Thursday, none won wire to wire.</p> <p>But when the rails were put up Friday (seven feet), the profile changed immediately.</p> <p>Jet Set Girl made the lead in race 3, slowed down the pace, and was gone at $19.60.</p><p><a href="http://www.drf.com/blogs/seven-feet-speed-bias" target="_blank">read more</a></p> Four o'clock Friday http://www.drf.com/blogs/four-oclock-friday

First post Friday at Del Mar is late afternoon. How will the track play, and is there anything worth betting?

 Del Mar Fri, 29 Jul 2011 22:01:28 +0000 Brad Free 125970 at http://www.drf.com <div class="field field-type-nodereference field-field-blog-author"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> Brad Free </div> </div> </div> <p>First post Friday at Del Mar is late afternoon. How will the track play, and is there anything worth betting?</p> <p>The main track on Thursday was not the same Polytrack from the first six days of the meet.</p> <p>Speed was better Thursday than any time this meet.</p> <p>The $18-20,000 claiming mare Malusita set a blazing pace in race 2, and won by more than five lengths. The $20,000 maiden-claiming filly Sheskey set a relatively strong pace in race 3, and won by two and a quarter lengths.</p><p><a href="http://www.drf.com/blogs/four-oclock-friday" target="_blank">read more</a></p> Nice hit, one ticket http://www.drf.com/blogs/nice-hit-one-ticket

One pick-six ticket scored for $1.1 million Wednesday at Del Mar. Nice hit, indeed. For the rest of us, Thursday beckons ...

 Del Mar Thu, 28 Jul 2011 19:31:41 +0000 Brad Free 125849 at http://www.drf.com <div class="field field-type-nodereference field-field-blog-author"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> Brad Free </div> </div> </div> <p>The eight-race card Thursday at Del Mar appears logical, with legitimate favorites in races 5 and 7. The only drawback facing Gallatin’s Run and All Star Heart is betting.  Both are listed at 5-2, which is about fair. The uneasy feeling is both might go shorter.</p> <p>As for handicapping creativity on Thursday, three Del Mar races with price-horses merit consideration.</p> <p>In race 3, Smilin’ From Above is 6-1 following a better-than-looked effort last out. She’s a maiden-20 going two turns.</p><p><a href="http://www.drf.com/blogs/nice-hit-one-ticket" target="_blank">read more</a></p> Blind Luck vs. boys? http://www.drf.com/blogs/blind-luck-vs-boys

A $1 million purse, and the slow crumble of the West Coast handicap division, provides incentive for Blind Luck to stay home and run Aug. 28 in the Pacific Classic at Del Mar.

 Wed, 27 Jul 2011 22:22:35 +0000 Brad Free 125799 at http://www.drf.com <div class="field field-type-nodereference field-field-blog-author"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> Brad Free </div> </div> </div> <p>The handicap division in California has been knocked to its knees.</p> <p>First Dude is retired.</p> <p>Twirling Candy might return to grass. Or, he might ship to Saratoga. “We’ve got three or four races we’re looking at, and we’re not committed to anything,” trainer John Sadler said Wednesday at Del Mar.</p> <p>Setsuko is eligible for non-winners other than, although that may change Friday when he starts favored in the Cougar II Handicap.</p><p><a href="http://www.drf.com/blogs/blind-luck-vs-boys" target="_blank">read more</a></p> Summer opinions http://www.drf.com/blogs/summer-opinions The handicapping notebook fills up quickly in summer, with stuff like this … Del Mar Sat, 23 Jul 2011 01:49:17 +0000 Brad Free 125495 at http://www.drf.com <div class="field field-type-nodereference field-field-blog-author"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> Brad Free </div> </div> </div> <p>The handicapping notebook fills up quickly in summer, with stuff like this …</p> <p># Sure, new bets are fun. But no thanks Saturday to Del Mar’s head-to-head wager in the Eddie Read. Caracortado at odds-on, or Acclamation at even-money, is not my cup of tea. Those are estimated odds, head-to-head only.</p> <p># On the other hand, the 5-1 morning line on front-runner Celtic Princess is mighty appealing. Come and catch her.</p><p><a href="http://www.drf.com/blogs/summer-opinions" target="_blank">read more</a></p> Playing the angle http://www.drf.com/blogs/playing-angle An interesting betting system gets tested Wednesday, opening day at Del Mar. Handicapping Del Mar Wed, 20 Jul 2011 02:55:30 +0000 Brad Free 125189 at http://www.drf.com <div class="field field-type-nodereference field-field-blog-author"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> Brad Free </div> </div> </div> <p>Looking for a summer betting angle?</p> <p>Del Mar is the right place in 2011.</p> <p>The track will award $1,000 and a 20 percent bonus on earnings (excluding stakes) to any runner whose previous start was outside California. The horse cannot have raced in California for the same owner in the last six months.</p> <p>The bonus applies only to the shipper’s first start at Del Mar, not subsequent starts.</p><p><a href="http://www.drf.com/blogs/playing-angle" target="_blank">read more</a></p> Derby pace softens http://www.drf.com/blogs/derby-pace-softens Attrition has slowed the likely tempo and boosted the chances of two marginal Kentucky Derby candidates. Kentucky Derby Wed, 27 Apr 2011 22:27:51 +0000 Brad Free 107744 at http://www.drf.com <div class="field field-type-nodereference field-field-blog-author"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> Brad Free </div> </div> </div> <p>It has been nine years since the Kentucky Derby was won by the pacesetter. The difference between the likely 2011 pacesetter and 2002 front-running winner War Emblem is huge.</p> <p>War Emblem was fast. The 112 Beyer he earned in his final Derby prep was seven points higher than the last-start figure of any in the field.</p> <p>Comma to the Top, likely pacesetter this year, does not possess a combined pace-speed advantage. Comma to the Top earned a 97 Beyer last out, same as Midnight Interlude and a point below the 98’s earned by Archarcharch and Nehro.</p><p><a href="http://www.drf.com/blogs/derby-pace-softens" target="_blank">read more</a></p> Daunting Derby entry http://www.drf.com/blogs/daunting-derby-entry Winners of the Arkansas Derby, Santa Anita Derby, Wood Memorial and Blue Grass will run “coupled” at generous 8.80-1 odds. Handicapping Kentucky Derby Wed, 27 Apr 2011 01:34:02 +0000 Brad Free 107695 at http://www.drf.com <div class="field field-type-nodereference field-field-blog-author"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> Brad Free </div> </div> </div> <p>Pool 3 of the 2011 Kentucky Derby Future Wager closed April 3, less than five weeks before the Derby.</p> <p>Even that late, some still considered the Derby crop weak, and instead backed “all others” (No. 24) in KDFW pool 3. “All others” is anonymous. It is a bet on chaos.</p> <p>It turns out KDFW pool 3 bettors who took 8.80-1 on No. 24 are getting all the best of it.</p> <p>The all-others “entry” includes winners of the Arkansas Derby, Santa Anita Derby, Wood Memorial and Blue Grass.</p><p><a href="http://www.drf.com/blogs/daunting-derby-entry" target="_blank">read more</a></p> California dreamless http://www.drf.com/blogs/california-dreamless Was it surprising Silver Medallion finished fourth at Keeneland? Not to anyone paying attention. Handicapping Kentucky Derby Mon, 25 Apr 2011 23:43:24 +0000 Brad Free 107646 at http://www.drf.com <div class="field field-type-nodereference field-field-blog-author"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> Brad Free </div> </div> </div> <p>California can feel a sense of pride when a 3-year-old ships out and wins on the road.</p> <p>It happened when The Factor won the Rebel at Oaklawn Park. It happened when Twice the Appeal finished second in the Turf Paradise Derby, and won the Sunland Derby.</p> <p>The Factor won. Twice the Appeal won. That is all. It is a short list of winning shippers.</p><p><a href="http://www.drf.com/blogs/california-dreamless" target="_blank">read more</a></p> Playing percentages http://www.drf.com/blogs/playing-percentages A new pick five at Hollywood Park shows the difference between a 14 percent takeout and the 23.86 percent California standard. Handicapping Fri, 22 Apr 2011 00:44:08 +0000 Brad Free 107458 at http://www.drf.com <div class="field field-type-nodereference field-field-blog-author"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> Brad Free </div> </div> </div> <p>The low-takeout (14 percent) pick five that made its debut Thursday at Hollywood Park attracted a modest $103,291 pool.</p> <p>Three winning favorites made it simple for 236 winning tickets. The 50-cent bet returned $263.55; there were 3,870 consolation payoffs (four winners) that returned $6.85.</p> <p>Is it a good bet? You be the judge.</p> <p>California recently hiked takeout to 23.86 percent for exotic wagers with three or more horses.</p> <p>Under the standard takeout, the winning pick five Thursday would have paid only $233, compared to $263.</p><p><a href="http://www.drf.com/blogs/playing-percentages" target="_blank">read more</a></p> Election Day http://www.drf.com/blogs/election-day Want to do send California racing a message regarding takeout? Vote with your bankroll on Thursday. Handicapping Wed, 20 Apr 2011 19:58:00 +0000 Brad Free 107362 at http://www.drf.com <div class="field field-type-nodereference field-field-blog-author"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> Brad Free </div> </div> </div> <p>The ballot box opens Thursday, when the least expensive wager in California makes its debut on opening day of the Hollywood Park spring-summer meet.</p> <p>California raised the exotic-wager takeout rate by a 10- to 15-percent margin Jan. 1 (from 20.68 cents per dollar, to 22.68 and 23.68). The cost went up, demand went down. Winter handle plummeted.</p> <p>This occurred in the face of an arrogant attitude by some.</p> <p>“Takeout does not matter,” a horseman told me in January. “You gamblers will bet on anything.”</p><p><a href="http://www.drf.com/blogs/election-day" target="_blank">read more</a></p> Big ’Cap no DQ http://www.drf.com/blogs/big-%E2%80%99cap-no-dq If the stewards got it right Saturday at Santa Anita, then it was all Twirling Candy’s fault. Sun, 06 Mar 2011 04:32:47 +0000 Brad Free 104871 at http://www.drf.com <div class="field field-type-nodereference field-field-blog-author"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> Brad Free </div> </div> </div> <p>Stewards screwed up by not disqualifying the winner of the Santa Anita Handicap.</p> <p>“Total bull-….,” one trainer said.</p> <p>Stewards made the right call by letting the order of finish stand.</p> <p>“If you’re unsure, don’t change it,” said another observer.</p> <p>No middle ground allowed. Split decision? Majority rule.</p> <p>Steward Kim Sawyer voted to disqualify the Big ’Cap winner for causing interference at the top of the stretch. Tom Ward and Scott Chaney voted to let the result stand.</p><p><a href="http://www.drf.com/blogs/big-%E2%80%99cap-no-dq" target="_blank">read more</a></p> Longshot seeker http://www.drf.com/blogs/longshot-seeker All three Grade 1’s Saturday at Santa Anita appear predictable. But just maybe, a contender can slip through the cracks. Handicapping Fri, 04 Mar 2011 19:48:03 +0000 Brad Free 104760 at http://www.drf.com <div class="field field-type-nodereference field-field-blog-author"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> Brad Free </div> </div> </div> <p>Is a handicapper a complete wimp by picking favorites in all three Grade 1’s on Big ’Cap day?</p> <p>Turbulent Descent (even-money in race 4), Caracortado (5-2 in race 9) and Twirling Candy (4-5 in race 10) are the most likely winners of the Santa Anita Oaks, Kilroe Mile and Big ’Cap.</p> <p>Meanwhile, creative bettors may find several options at higher prices.</p><p><a href="http://www.drf.com/blogs/longshot-seeker" target="_blank">read more</a></p> Big 'Cap work hype http://www.drf.com/blogs/big-cap-work-hype The Santa Anita Handicap is not a walkover. Twirling Candy’s main foe looked sensational in his final workout Tuesday. Tue, 01 Mar 2011 19:54:39 +0000 Brad Free 104597 at http://www.drf.com <div class="field field-type-nodereference field-field-blog-author"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> Brad Free </div> </div> </div> <p>Yes, the Big ’Cap favorite remains Twirling Candy.</p> <p>But something happened Tuesday morning at Santa Anita that suggests he might have his hands full.</p> <p>Trainer Bob Baffert had a plane to catch, so he worked three Big ’Cap starters early, after the 6:30 a.m. break.</p> <p>First was Tweebster, five furlongs in 1:00.40. Ho, meet hum.</p> <p>Then came Game On Dude. He worked in company, five furlongs in 1:00.40. It was a good work, nothing more.</p> <p>Baffert saved the best for last – First Dude.</p><p><a href="http://www.drf.com/blogs/big-cap-work-hype" target="_blank">read more</a></p> Sunrise with 'Candy http://www.drf.com/blogs/sunrise-candy The Big ’Cap favorite dazzled in an early-morning workout Sunday at Santa Anita. Want to bet against Twirling Candy? Good luck with that. Columnists Sun, 27 Feb 2011 19:43:20 +0000 Brad Free 104515 at http://www.drf.com <div class="field field-type-nodereference field-field-blog-author"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> Brad Free </div> </div> </div> <p>It was cold Sunday morning at Santa Anita. The temperature at dawn hovered at about freezing.</p> <p>Bundled from the chill, jockeys Joel Rosario and Rafael Bejarano arrived early at trainer John Sadler’s barn.</p> <p>They had good reason for the 6:30 a.m. workout call. Rosario rides Twirling Candy in the Santa Anita Handicap on March 5; Bejarano may end up on Gladding. Both horses were scheduled for their final workout Sunday.</p> <p>Sadler typically does not work his top horses at daybreak. Sunday was the exception. Why so early?</p><p><a href="http://www.drf.com/blogs/sunrise-candy" target="_blank">read more</a></p>