10/31/2013 4:32PM

Eve of BC Friday: Carryover, Odds & Ends


4:30 pm (ET): I normally don't play SoCal carryovers, even if they start with $439k in the kitty like today's does, but since it's the eve of Breeders' Cup Friday, I might as well follow along and it's not as much fun to follow along if you're not playing, so I've quick-capped it and will be putting in some tickets shortly. So we'll play and kibbitz it from here and maybe catch up on some Breeders' Cup odds and ends to pass the time between results.

The added intrigue is that if no one has it today, it will carry into tomorrow's BC card in the $1.5M-$2M neighborhood, and that will definitely lure me on a day when I otherwise would have passed the pick-6. I don't particularly want to spend much time on the Twilight Derby that begins tomorrow's sequence, nor much money on the impossible Marathon that's the second leg, but for that big a carryover I'll give it a whirl.

As for today's sequence, it looks manageable early and gets very tough in the last two legs, with the usual impossible SoCal maiden-claimer pick-6 finale. I'm trying to keep my investment in the $1k range; I'll be back in a few minutes with the play.

4:35 pm: First trick-or-treaters of the day just showed up at the door, dressed as pirates. They weren't terrified by the greyhounds, but just wait until dark.

4:45 pm: Twenty minutes to post for the third at SA. Here's the play:

Don't expend too much time and effort telling me what an idiot I am for not using the horses you like better than mine. I don't play this circuit and profess no expertise about today's runners beyond what I can see in the past performances. I wish I could have afforded more coverage in the first two legs, and my splits between the A's and C's are pretty fine lines, but maybe if I can get by those two I'll have some possibilities later on. The play comes to $1,376.

5:05 pm: Pool over $2 million as field moseys to the gate for the opening leg. Three favorites at 5-to-2.

5:10 pm: Sinfully (#1, $7.40), clear favorite early and 5-2 second choice (to Under Review) at post time, ran down Persuasive Paul in race marred by backstretch fall of 3-1 Square Dancer (#6) and Joel Rosario.

5:20 pm: Kristo 1-5, Hold Everything 3-1 in early betting for race 4/leg 2. Wish I still had both instead of just the favorite. Hold Everything is making his second start after finishing third in his debut to Tap It Rich, my pick in Saturday's BC Juvenile.

DRF's Steve Andersen reports "Rosario on feet soon, horse ran off" on race 3 spill.

5:45 pm: Kristo at 3-5 turned back a stretch-turn challenge from 9-5 Hold Everything to win the 4th and keep me alive 4x2x3x3. Kristo kicked on to win by about half a dozen lengths, maybe not such good news for us Tap It Rich backers.

6:15 pm: Rosario appears to be okay since he just won the 5th with a driving finish on Koast, who nosed out fave Mr. Bossy Pants.

Speaking of jockeys, here's a little chart that never found a home elsewhere this week, listing the mounts of the five riders who account for a combined 58 of the 162 BC mounts Friday and Saturday. Mike Smith and John Velazquez each have 13 mounts in the 14 races, followed by Joel Rosario with 12, Javier Castellano with 11 and Gary Stevens with 9. (Next with 6 mounts each are Victor Espinoza, Martin Garcia, Julien Leparoux, Ryan Moore and Joe Talamo.)

Smith (Royal Delta, Mizdirection, Game On Dude) and Velazquez (Verrazano, Havana, Wise Dan) have three morning-line favorites each. Eight different riders are on the eight other ML choices.

6:45 pm: Get up, get up, get up....argggh. Majestic City, 15-1 in a five-horse field where no one else was more than 9-2, just held off favored Rousing Sermon to win the 6th and knock out legions of players including this one. Think you had to hit the all-button to like this one, so there's still a chance for a megacarry if weird things happen in the last two legs, which is entirely possible

7:00 pm: TVG host just erroneously announced "the Friday exotics don't carry over to Saturday." According to BC wagering chief Ken Kirchner, "Very wrong. Pick-5, Pick-6 and Super Hi Five can all carry to Saturday, Pick-6 can carry to Sunday."

7:25 pm: No carryover to tomorrow: All 14 in the finale are covered, at payoffs ranging from $50k on favored Sophie's Secret to $1.45 million on Dulcemia.

Good night and better luck tomorrow. I'll be right here, in time for the early pick-5.


Jenny Wilson More than 1 year ago
Thanks for all the information especially on the jockeys! It is hard to believe that all the research that went into the bet preparation for the Breeders’ Cup was over in just two days. Now, we can focus on some other races since it will be another year before the Breeders’ Cup is on us again. Does anyone know if the big money pots were won or did anything big get carried over? Somehow, I cannot seem to find it, but I would surely be interested to know. Honestly, I had not paid too much attention to the carry overs but now I will, and I will keep my fingers crossed that I will win the big money!
Don Reed More than 1 year ago
Thanks for the jockey lists - there were very helpful and saved me a lot of work!
Nicholas Briglia More than 1 year ago
You mentioned the impossible marathon in your article. I'm liking just two, Indian Jones and Worldly. I'm not sure if the marathon is any harder than several other Breeder's Cup races, including the Classic. They are all headaches. Even the distaff is tough. Hard to throw out any of them.
CMathieu66 More than 1 year ago
Nice pic of Guillot riding in on a white charger to file his Travers protest.
Yuwipi More than 1 year ago
Very nice touch with the Halloween decorations Steve. Looking forward to the Breeders Cup even though Santa Anita has been a nemesis for me. By the time this is done I'll be horsed out until Thanksgiving. Best of luck on the wagering.
Bill Opalka More than 1 year ago
OK, I know it's early to start complaining, but do we really have to accept year-end honors being determined by an unfair racing strip?
William Brouillette More than 1 year ago
I could not agree more. It is a total embarrassment. I think they should make the dirt track harder. Clearly it's only like pavement and not concrete. That problem should be corrected immediately!
John Richardson More than 1 year ago
At least there is No speed bias at SA.
Randy Atkins More than 1 year ago
bahahahahaha that's funny
Brian Healey More than 1 year ago
Happy Breeders Cup Mr. Crist! Looks like you have some nice coverage through the last three legs. Good luck the rest of the way. I have a very strong opinion of Brujo de Olleros tomorrow in the mile. Was wondering if you had an opinion of Brujo or any others. Thanks and best of luck, Brian from Monmouth Park
Anonymous More than 1 year ago
Good luck Steve. Odd how workouts in Cali seem to carry the "H" tag while East Coast tracks mainly show breezes. Nice to see the juvie races fill up again. Longshot: Vagabond Shoes in the Turf on Saturday. Hope Rosario is OK. Mike L
gowanusbaseball More than 1 year ago
Steve, how are you leaning in the Classic with RTG's scratch?

[I picked Game On Dude second to Ron, so I guess he's my official pick now. I'm rooting for him --arguably best horse in training last three years with no Classic/HOTY to show for it -- but I'll be spreading in the pick-x's. -SC]