10/31/2013 3:32PM

Eve of BC Friday: Carryover, Odds & Ends


4:30 pm (ET): I normally don't play SoCal carryovers, even if they start with $439k in the kitty like today's does, but since it's the eve of Breeders' Cup Friday, I might as well follow along and it's not as much fun to follow along if you're not playing, so I've quick-capped it and will be putting in some tickets shortly. So we'll play and kibbitz it from here and maybe catch up on some Breeders' Cup odds and ends to pass the time between results.

The added intrigue is that if no one has it today, it will carry into tomorrow's BC card in the $1.5M-$2M neighborhood, and that will definitely lure me on a day when I otherwise would have passed the pick-6. I don't particularly want to spend much time on the Twilight Derby that begins tomorrow's sequence, nor much money on the impossible Marathon that's the second leg, but for that big a carryover I'll give it a whirl.

As for today's sequence, it looks manageable early and gets very tough in the last two legs, with the usual impossible SoCal maiden-claimer pick-6 finale. I'm trying to keep my investment in the $1k range; I'll be back in a few minutes with the play.

4:35 pm: First trick-or-treaters of the day just showed up at the door, dressed as pirates. They weren't terrified by the greyhounds, but just wait until dark.

4:45 pm: Twenty minutes to post for the third at SA. Here's the play:

Don't expend too much time and effort telling me what an idiot I am for not using the horses you like better than mine. I don't play this circuit and profess no expertise about today's runners beyond what I can see in the past performances. I wish I could have afforded more coverage in the first two legs, and my splits between the A's and C's are pretty fine lines, but maybe if I can get by those two I'll have some possibilities later on. The play comes to $1,376.

5:05 pm: Pool over $2 million as field moseys to the gate for the opening leg. Three favorites at 5-to-2.

5:10 pm: Sinfully (#1, $7.40), clear favorite early and 5-2 second choice (to Under Review) at post time, ran down Persuasive Paul in race marred by backstretch fall of 3-1 Square Dancer (#6) and Joel Rosario.

5:20 pm: Kristo 1-5, Hold Everything 3-1 in early betting for race 4/leg 2. Wish I still had both instead of just the favorite. Hold Everything is making his second start after finishing third in his debut to Tap It Rich, my pick in Saturday's BC Juvenile.

DRF's Steve Andersen reports "Rosario on feet soon, horse ran off" on race 3 spill.

5:45 pm: Kristo at 3-5 turned back a stretch-turn challenge from 9-5 Hold Everything to win the 4th and keep me alive 4x2x3x3. Kristo kicked on to win by about half a dozen lengths, maybe not such good news for us Tap It Rich backers.

6:15 pm: Rosario appears to be okay since he just won the 5th with a driving finish on Koast, who nosed out fave Mr. Bossy Pants.

Speaking of jockeys, here's a little chart that never found a home elsewhere this week, listing the mounts of the five riders who account for a combined 58 of the 162 BC mounts Friday and Saturday. Mike Smith and John Velazquez each have 13 mounts in the 14 races, followed by Joel Rosario with 12, Javier Castellano with 11 and Gary Stevens with 9. (Next with 6 mounts each are Victor Espinoza, Martin Garcia, Julien Leparoux, Ryan Moore and Joe Talamo.)

Smith (Royal Delta, Mizdirection, Game On Dude) and Velazquez (Verrazano, Havana, Wise Dan) have three morning-line favorites each. Eight different riders are on the eight other ML choices.

6:45 pm: Get up, get up, get up....argggh. Majestic City, 15-1 in a five-horse field where no one else was more than 9-2, just held off favored Rousing Sermon to win the 6th and knock out legions of players including this one. Think you had to hit the all-button to like this one, so there's still a chance for a megacarry if weird things happen in the last two legs, which is entirely possible

7:00 pm: TVG host just erroneously announced "the Friday exotics don't carry over to Saturday." According to BC wagering chief Ken Kirchner, "Very wrong. Pick-5, Pick-6 and Super Hi Five can all carry to Saturday, Pick-6 can carry to Sunday."

7:25 pm: No carryover to tomorrow: All 14 in the finale are covered, at payoffs ranging from $50k on favored Sophie's Secret to $1.45 million on Dulcemia.

Good night and better luck tomorrow. I'll be right here, in time for the early pick-5.