05/17/2011 6:11PM

The End?

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Robert Fitzpatrick, a 60-year-old resident of Staten Island, New York, does not believe that Animal Kingdom will win the Preakness.
 
Fitzpatrick has no earthly idea who will win at Old Hilltop, but he is absolutely certain that Affirmed's place in history is secure as the last Triple Crown winner.

And, by last, he means the very last.

You see, Fitzpatrick is predicting that the world will end at a little before 6:00 pm ET on Saturday. 

And he doesn't reason that the sky will fall because Isn't He Perfect upset the Preakness apple cart, either.

He's talking fire, brimstone and natural disaster. 

Just to make sure he won't be remembered (by whom, I wonder?) as a redboarder, Fitzpatrick has spent the majority of his life's savings on billboards plastered throughout New York City.  They not only proclaim that The Rapture is coming, but that his self-published book, The Doomsday Code, is available for sale. 

As of this writing, we are four days, three hours and twenty-three minutes to the very end.  That's approximately nineteen minutes before the scheduled running of the Preakness and Animal Kingdom's opportunity to reach the brink of immortality.

Hopefully, if there is another beginning, millions of years down the road, the curious bipeds that crawl from the muck and mire will find a history of the American thoroughbred. 

I can imagine it now.  In a battered cave, post-historic/pre-historic man, instead of painting on the walls, will proudly display The Green Monkey's stallion register listing.  He'll be remembered as another Eohippus.

Of course, there is a possibility, however slight, that Fitzpatrick may be wrong.  His predictions are based on the research done by Harold Camping, the president of Family Radio that incorrectly believed that Armageddon would occur in September, 1994. 

That's why racing is great.  If you have a wrong opinion, you can redeem yourself in the very next race.  Camping has been waiting sixteen years and eight months to be proven correct.

Let's just hope he isn't right this Saturday.

Anyway, I'm pretty sure the end isn't near.  The world will crumble only when I'm alive to "All" in the final leg of a multi-day Pick 6 carryover sequence.  A 50-1 shot will be leading by three in the stretch. 

Then, poof, I'm face to face with a guy holding a pitchfork. 

***

Here are the top 25 winning Beyer Speed Figures from last week's races (5/9/11 - 5/15/11):

1. SAINT LEON - 103 - OC 40k/N2X -N - 6 Furlongs (Polytrack) - Arlington
1. THIS ONES FOR PHIL - 103 - Decathlon Stakes - 6 Furlongs - Monmouth
3. TRAPPE SHOT - 102 - Waldoboro Stakes - 6 Furlongs - Belmont
4. EMBUR'S SONG - 101 - Hendrie Stakes (G3-C) - 6 1/2 Furlongs (Polytrack) - Woodbine
5. COLOR OF COURAGE - 100 - Alw 59500N2X - 6 1/2 Furlongs (Cushion Track) - Hollywood
5. LITTLE NICK - 100 - Champali Stakes - 5 Furlongs (Turf) - Calder
7. ACCLAMATION - 98 - Jim Murray Handicap (G2) - 1 1/2 Miles (Turf) - Hollywood
8. DUELING ALEX - 97 - OC 32k/N2X -N - 1 Mile 70 Yards - Monmouth
8. VICTORYASECRET - 97 - Alw 41640NC - 1 Mile (Turf) - Golden Gate
10. ARCH TRAVELER - 96 - Ziggy's Boy Stakes - 7 Furlongs - Belmont
10. BENCH POINTS - 96 - Lazaro Barrera Memorial (G3) - 7 Furlongs (Cushion Track) - Hollywood
10. TIZ MIZ SUE - 96 - Winter Melody Stakes - 1 1/16 Miles - Delaware
13. DARK THUNDER - 95 - Alw 50960N1X - 7 Furlongs - Belmont
13. RIGHT ONE - 95 - Island Sun Stakes - 1 Mile (Turf) - Belmont
13. STREAKER - 95 - OC 75k/N3X -N - 6 Furlongs - Belmont
16. ALTERNATION - 94 - Peter Pan Stakes (G2) - 1 1/8 Miles - Belmont
16. BLUE NOTION - 94 - Alw 35840N1X - 6 Furlongs - Penn National
16. HUNTERS BAY - 94 - OC 62k/N2X -N - 7 Furlongs (Polytrack) - Woodbine
16. KAJIWARA - 94 - Alw 52555N2X - 5 Furlongs - Churchill
16. MAJOR MARVEL - 94 - Clm c-(16-15) - 6 1/2 Furlongs (Polytrack) - Woodbine
16. ZERO RATE POLICY - 94 - Alw 50000N1X - 6 Furlongs - Monmouth
22. FRAZIL - 93 - Hcp 12500s - 1 1/16 Miles - Belmont
22. IN THE JUICE - 93 - OC 32k/C -N - 1 1/16 Miles - Charles Town
22. UH OH BANGO - 93 - OC 62k/N2X -N - 1 1/16 Miles (Cushion Track) - Hollywood
25. CASH REFUND - 92 - OC 100k/N$Y -N - 6 Furlongs - Churchill
25. REMUS - 92 - Clm 12500(12.5-10.5) - 7 Furlongs (Cushion Track) - Hollywood

The lifetime past performances for Saint Leon and This Ones for Phil are available at the bottom of this blog post.

Who do you believe gave the "Performance of the Week."  Watch the video at the link below and then vote and comment.

http://www.drf.com/news/weekend-stakes-preview-videos

***

Dan:
Where are this week's Performances of the Week vidoes with Mike? I was at Hollywood Park and M One Rifle and Cost of Freedom really went after it in the stretch to produce a 114 winning Beyer.
GunBow

Churchill Downs did not provide us with replays for the majority of races during Derby week.  While I did vote for M One Rifle's big-Beyer victory, it wouldn't have been much of a program if we couldn't discuss, in video detail, the major races on the Derby undercard.
We're back this week, though.

***

Finally, as a follow-up to your book on maidens and 2 yo's, are there any plans to update your publication (Lists of debut sires, trainers, stallions to watch, etc.)? Or perhaps a piece to update it's original contents? Hope so, it's been a great handicapping tool for me and others, and we look forward to more.
Thanks Dan,
Tommy

Thanks for the kind words, Tommy.  There aren't any plans to update the book, but I'd like to do something in the future.  I would urge you to reference the "Debut Reports" section on our homepage (found under the HANDICAPPING AND PP'S tab).  There, we list the debut statistics for trainers, sires and broodmare sires going back to 2008. 

***

Dan,could you post the PPS of Sharp Cat please?There was a fast filly.Thanks
SamG

Sharp Cat's past performances are available at the bottom of this blog post.  No Beyer for the walk-over???!!!

***

Dan
Do you have any ideas on where I can find the replays for Arlington without opening an online wagering account? Arlington and racereplays.com have apparently divorced, the track is not on calracing.com, and its Web Site refers me over to TwinSpires, which I want nothing to do with. Last year you helped me find Woodbine (calracing.com, of course), so I am hoping you have another light bulb in your pocket.
Thank you.
blackstone

I am stumped on this one and am quite peeved about it.  I used to get my replays from the Churchill Downs tracks at racereplays, but the current meetings aren't available.  Of course, they are available at twinspires.com, so that may be your only option right now.  Anyone else have information?

***

It was also good to see Atticus. He was a pure miler who led the race until the quarter pole. I believe for awhile he held the US record for a mile on any surface (think it was 1:31 and 4/5), maybe Dan can give us his PP's too.
James Mc

Atticus broke the world record for a mile in the Grade 2 Arcadia Handicap (1:31.89).  He was an underrated horse, winning graded races on dirt and turf, and overall races at distances ranging from 6 1/2 furlongs to 1 1/8 miles.

***

Dan - I caught a replay of 1996 Breeders Cup Classic on HRTV and I remembered I "liked" Formal Gold to win this race and his odds were 20-1. I can't remember why I "loaded" up all my bets on this horse to win the classic. Please post pp's for the 1996 Classic and race recap (if you have it) to help solve this mystery. Many thanks for the best blog on the internet.
JP

The past performances and chart for the 1996 Breeders' Cup Classic are listed below.  I needed Louis Quatorze to win that race for a huge score.  There are actually tears in my eyes as I type this.

***

Dan:
My grandpa used to own several horses out at Longacres back in the 70's, one of which I remember was named Mink's Patient and I believe was trained by Kathy Walsh. Maybe you could find PP's on Mink's Patient for me.
DailyDub

Mink's Patient's pp's are available at the bottom of this blog entry.

***

Dan--
On Derby Day Sassy Image pulled off a big upset. On TV the talked about her being recovered from recent throat surgery. Why isn't this kind of information made available to the Form. The Public has a right to know. Even "Closer Look" wondered about her layoff. Obviously the surgery made a huge difference.
--Rich P.

It goes back to the whole Uncle Mo/Repole/Pletcher "did he or didn't he" discussion.  The public should certainly receive full disclosure on the condition of the horses that they're betting on.  Obviously, we're not getting it.  All surgical procedures should be reported to the racing office and then should be noted in the track program and DRF

The thoroughbred industry should be reporting information as they do in Hong Kong.  Click on the link below for the "Racing Information" for a horse named Bullish King on the Hong Kong Jockey Club website:

http://www.hkjc.com/english/racing/ove_horse.asp?HorseNo=L304

Note the veterinary record that discusses previous physical problems. 

I think our DRF reporters do a super job uncovering information about layoff horses in our articles.  When I get our Disabled List back up and running, we'll have some reference points as to the whereabouts of certain horses.  But, until we get a system like the one in Hong Kong, we may be in the dark about some runners.  And that's a shame.

***

Dan why don't u or MW appear on
Blinkers off anymore?
Marc

DRF and TVG decided not to partner up on the show anymore.  I don't have any concrete details, but I have some suspicions...

***

Hi Dan,
I hope you had a profitable weekend, and a chance to wind down from all the Hoopla leading up to the KD. I look forward to hearing your comments on the Preakness. Do you feel that the confirmation of the track has any effect on the pace or the ability to close in time, also which track or tracks, is the surface similar to?
Don

The last thing I'm going to be worrying about as it pertains to the Preakness is the track configuration.  You'll hear the same stories that we get every season (the track is speed-favoring, yada, yada, yada).  Unless there's a distinct bias at Pimlico during the early Saturday races, I won't even be thinking about the track. 
Plus, considering the amount of speed lined up for the big race, it might take a huge bias to get one of them home after contesting quick fractions anyway.

***

Dan,
What kind of numbers does trainer Motion have with horses that have won their last start and horses who are coming back with 14 days or less of rest?
eeebayou

According to Formulator, Graham Motion is 96-501 (19%, $1.84 ROI) over the past five years with last-out winners (25-90, 28%, $2.46 ROI this season). 
With horses returning in two weeks or less, he is 14-97 (14%, $0.85 ROI) over the past five years (2-8, 25%, $1.62 ROI).

Combining the two stats (won last out, returning in 14 days or less), he is 1-5 (20%, $0.64 ROI) over the past five years (0-1 over the past year)

***

Dan:
Your blog is always informative. I'm seeking ANY info on the freak Maclean's Music. Works and news were plentiful until the unfortunate passing of Mr. Jackson in mid-April. Reading between the lines it seems at least possible a horse of this caliber may be being shopped. Any idea whether it was an injury, potential sale or some other factor?
kelhorse

Maclean's Music was shipped to Churchill Downs to point for a race there, but hasn't worked in about a month. The horse reportedly had problems with his shins that kept him from racing at two, but I don't know for sure if it's a recurring issue.  I'll try to find out some more and will let you know if I hear anything.

***

Dan or anyone else,
As I was looking through the entries friday for Pimlico, I noticed a jockey H Turner in the 8th with no rides in the US this year. Is this Hayley Turner, the female jock from the UK, or someone else?
Assuming it is her, in what class would she fit on the American "totem pole" of riders?
As always, great blog
mr velvet

It is Hayley Turner.  She will be at Pimlico on Friday to compete in the inaugural Female Jockey Challenge.  There will be a prize of $10,000 given to the female jockey with the best record over a span of four selected races.  Turner joins Vicky Baze, Forest Boyce, Rosie Napravnik, Chantal Sutherland and Emma-Jayne Wilson in the Challenge. 
Turner is currently ranked third in wins in Great Britain this season with 43 victories from 273 mounts (16%).  This is, more than likely, a limited engagement in the U.S. for Turner, but she should do well.

***

Dan;
Is the Kentucky Derby Really Just a Prep Race for The Preakness?
Van Savant

If you mean "prep" in the traditional sense that horses are not 100% fit for the Derby, but are raring to go for the Preakness, I'd say that isn't the case.  The Derby is the race everyone wants to win. 
If you mean that the Derby is an excellent way to prepare a horse for the rigors of a race like the Preakness, the statistics do seem to indicate that it has been helpful to have run in the Derby. 
With the nonsensical bonuses being thrown around, however, I wonder if some connections would attempt to "prep" their horses in the Derby in the hope of cashing in at Pimlico.  I would pray that isn't the case. 

***

Congrats to Ron B. for crushing last week's HandiGambling exercise.  This week's race will be the Preakness.  I'll post pp's in my next blog entry.

Take care,

Dan

AttachmentSize
SaintPhil.pdf74.86 KB
Sharp Cat.pdf57.19 KB
Atticus.pdf61.46 KB
1996 BC Classic.pdf136.29 KB
1996 BC Classic Chart.pdf372.24 KB
Mink's Patient.pdf46.16 KB
Mickey More than 1 year ago
HG Event: Well since my Derby prediction was close but no cigar..I am throwing my support to see a Triple Crown try.... I will use Animal Kingdom here all the way.....#11 I will just take a swing here and say that #7 Midnight Interlude runs better here.......if Baffert didn't think he had a chance after a Derby try..would he run him here?...doubtful...so I think he should be there as well... so as to not jinx a TC try...... $100 exacta straight #11-#7 good luck to all!
gerry v. More than 1 year ago
CALIBOB I think Concealed Identity might be a" horse for course".I'll certainly have at least a saver bet on him.
CM More than 1 year ago
"Will the Yankees-Orioles game ever end? Is there anyone other than Dan and me still watching the game in the 14th inning?" Yes there is Alan. I was watching, while cursing out Girardi for taking out Colon. I know it's Mariano Rivera, but Colon had a three hitter!!! I guess this rant is for another blog. Dan - great story on Mr. Fitzpatrick. Has anyone bothered to ask him why we should buy his book with only two days until the end? I can think of better things to do with my money, like wager on the Black Eyed Susan and various other races.
Johnny D More than 1 year ago
HG Preakness: $100.00 cold trifecta 11-10-9. Expect a faster pace than Derby giving DI a chance to get closer. MMM is a real grinder with heart but still a step below the other two. Real chance for AK to break the TC drought.
Johnny D More than 1 year ago
HG Preakness: $100.00 cold trifecta 11-10-9. Expect a faster pace than Derby giving DI a chance to get closer. MMM is a real grinder with heart but still a step below the other two. Real chance for AK to break the TC drought.
steve More than 1 year ago
Hi, you're one of the few good writers for DRF and funny too!
blackseabass More than 1 year ago
Annie, The euros voted The Tetrarch aka "Spotted Wonder" fastest race horse of all-time !! He was the ultimate PGH and the ancestor of more than 90% of all the PGHs in North America. When you're talking PGHs the discussion begins and ends with "The Spotted Wonder". He was truly a horse of a different color ! He never tasted defeat. Funny story about the queens visit to the derby. A writer for the (Louisville Courier ?) wrote that True Americans generally don't care for so-called royals and that patriotic Americans should pelt her with rotten vegetables and send her scurrying from these shores. LOL. I couldn't have agreed with a writer anymore than that. Nothing against the old ladies love of breeding yadayada but really who needs her. They should give her a skimmer and let her help clean up some of her mess down in the gulf. When she releases her hold on up-state NY , Wyoming and the 4% of the Federal Reserve's profit per year that her family has been recieving from the US economy since 1913 then we'll talk about putting down the veggies. LOL. Not until then ! LOL.
Yogi More than 1 year ago
PGM, Yeah, it just seems like they run forever.
Stormmy More than 1 year ago
Hi Dan, I can't believe that no one has mentioned the absurd ride that Dialed In got in the Derby. Here is a horse that was only 10 lengths off the pace in fractions of 46&change and 1:10&change in Fla Derby and is 17 lenghts out in 48 and 1:13. Lapareaux, as many jockeys do, fell into the trap thinking that a closer has to be many lengths behind. I think before a jock gets his license he has to have a stop watch wired to his brain.
tencentcielo More than 1 year ago
HG Preakness $10 exacta 1,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,14 / 2 = $90 $1 trifecta 2 / 1,11 / 1,5,6,9,10,11 = $10 I'm going to put most of money in Norman finishing second, hoping for a Magic Weisner-type effort, where he finishes a gutty second to the winner. Norman is a grinder, and will hopefully be ridden that way. I have little faith in my bet, and to reinforce that, I'm probably going to go "ALL" in the P4, since I have strong opinions in the other three legs. This is the first year since 2005 that I have not had even an irrational belief that the Derby winner would go on to win the Triple Crown. Yes, even with Super Saver & Mine that Bird I had an irrational belief that they had a chance to win it. Not this year. Even if AK survives the Preakness with a win, he'll somehow lose in the Belmont IMHO
Turnbackthealarm More than 1 year ago
Don, Thanks for the heads up on the English Channel baby. I was a fan of November Snow. When I checked pedigreequery.com for a list of his progeny, as the dam, she stuck out immediately as a very nice racemare. Sark definitely fits the Steve T blue baby angle.