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Encaustic Wins Again, Courageous Cat, PP's
Thank you Dan for giving Encaustic a nice write up last time. He had another Great Day at Laurel... setting a track record!
Joe (Premier Stables)
He did it again. ENCAUSTIC got the nod as "Performer of the Week" in the March 1 FormBlog and he backed it right up with a powerful track record performance at Laurel last Friday.
Here's what I wrote about Encaustic on March 1:
Presious Passion returned to his winning ways with a front-running gambit in Sunday's Mac Diarmida at Gulfstream Park, but fellow veteran Encaustic may have put up the race of the week the previous afternoon in an allowance event at Laurel Park.
A full brother to millionaire Include, the six-year-old Encaustic earned a career-best 100 Beyer Speed Figure in his forty-first lifetime start. The son of Broad Brush began his career with trainer Richard Small, was switched to Steve Asmussen at the beginning of the 2008 season, and has been with his current mentor, Mark Shuman, since the middle of last year. A multiple stakes-winner at Mountaineer Park last year, Encaustic pressed the pace of Russell Road from the two-path, took over the lead late on the backstretch, and kept on going despite weaving a bit in the stretch. If things continue to go well for Encaustic, a tilt in the Iselin Handicap over the summer might be in the cards.
Last Friday, Encaustic, sent off the third-choice in a field of five behind Grade 1-placed SOLAR FLARE and graded winner NO ADVANTAGE, went straight to the front under Justin Shepherd. Encaustic was taken well off the rail while on the lead down the backstretch and was never under any pressure to defeat a field of 'n$y' optional claimers that included graded winner AH DAY and stakes-winner EDDIE C.
Encaustic has really come to hand in recent starts and is worth a look in stakes competition down the road.
Congrats to Joe from Premier Stables on the win. Please keep us posted on Encaustic's training.
Here are the top 25 winning Beyer Speed Figures from last week's racing action:
Here are the lifetime past performances for the highest Beyer earner of the week:
For Dan and other pros who know more about this kind of stuff than I do:
I was very impressed by Courageous Cat's win in the Canadian H. a few weeks ago, and it's not just because he came so close to tying the track record. I've watched replays of both that race and the Breeder's Cup Mile, and to my eyes, he has a strikingly smooth, graceful, and efficient "turfer's" stride. He also seems to have the necessary "gears". I'm thinking he may actually have an ITM chance, at least, in Dubai, even though that race is 1 1/8th miles against some major talent.
What do you think? Thanks in advance.
I'm not sure I'm completely sold on COURAGEOUS CAT just yet. He seems to have a bad habit of drifting once he makes the lead in the stretch and his two fastest races have come at one mile. He also has a tendency to get a bit hot in the post parade. While his Canadian Turf Handicap was solid (he tracked a good pace and held off the closers), a Dubai journey would be a big step up in class. Note that he just headed the rallying CHEROKEE ARTIST in the Canadian Turf and that one is more of a Grade 3 type than a true top-class turf performer.
You always have to respect a Bill Mott-trained runner and Courageous Cat, a full brother to the multiple Grade 1 turf winner After Market, seems to be rounding into his best form at the age of four. I reserve the right to change my mind when I see the past performances, but I'm a bit bearish on his Dubai Duty Free chances as of right now.
can you please post the pps' to two of my favorite horses..
Silver Goblin & Speakerphone
Here they are:
a juvenile filly won her debut in a Calder stakes race over the summer, then went up to Saratoga and got crushed. Dashing Debby maybe?
Dan, will you post the horses that have held the title "all time earnings leader"
It was Dashing Debby, a Steve Asmussen-trained filly that last worked on March 8 at the Fair Grounds.
I went back to 1948 for the "All-Time Earnings Leaders."
1948-1949 - Stymie
1950-1955 - Citation (first million-dollar earner)
1956-1957 - Nashua
1958-1963 - Round Table
1964-1978 - Kelso
1979 - Affirmed (first two-millon earner)
1980 - Spectacular Bid
1981-1987 - John Henry (first three-, four-, five-, and six-million earner)
1988-1995 - Alysheba
1996-2007 - Cigar (first seven-, eight, and nine-million earner)
2008-2010 - Curlin (first ten-million earner)
Speaking of LE PRINCE, my recollection is that he was entered in the Travers following his debut win, but was scratched.
Am I right about that? Could you possibly post the entries and pps for that year's Travers?
Le Prince was scratched from the Travers and I believe he was also scratched from the Jim Dandy earlier in the Saratoga meet.
Here's the 1990 Travers (including the pp line for the race itself):
Hi Dan! Big Favor. Suffolk Downs is having their 75th Anniversary this year, & are looking for Stories from Years Past. My Grandfather Owned a few nice horses in the 60's, including a John Kirby-bred pair, Tizzy Lish & Lizzie Tish. Can you find Lifetime PP's for them? (FYI, One of the two names was used by a horse last decade in Fl., & the horse was on it's way to breaking maiden when horribly going bad in deep stretch & dying.)
I'm sorry, but my past performance system doesn't go back that far. All I found was that Lizzie Tish was a bay mare foaled on May 6, 1960 in Rhode Island. Her sire was Count Nimble, her dam was Africance (by Ajax), and her breeder was John A. Grant.
After consulting the "American Produce Records" CD-ROM, I found that Lizzie Tish was multiple stakes-placed (career record of 29-5-3-6) with earnings of $29,964.
Lizzie Tish foaled African Queen, a multiple stakes-placed filly on the New England circuit. African Queen, in turn, foaled multiple stakes-winners Africaner and African Prince, both winners of the Massachusetts Breeders' Derby. Africaner, a filly, foaled multiple stakes-winners Dr. Desai and African Princess.
Lizzie Tish's half-sister, Tizzie Lish (by Smileytown), was a dark bay or brown filly. Her lifetime record was 36-2-2-1 with earnings of $2,510.
If anyone knows where I can watch the head on I would appreciate any help as racereplays.com doesn't offer Tampa replays.
Try calracing.com. For a free login and password, you'll be able to access video from Tampa Bay Downs including head-on replays.
Dan i like to see pps for Forage he raced in n.y in 75-76 thanks
Here's what I have for Forage:
Do you know, or if not can you find out, why the Post Position Data is no longer available by track when purchasing the online Form edition?
FormulatorWeb users can access post position data by distance by using the drop-down toolbar "Analysis & Stats." PDF users on drf.com will find a "Post Positions by Distance" link once they click on the racecard they wish to download.
Any chance that we could see the PP's for the 2004 and 2003 Florida Derby's?
I like to look through past races to find clues for the future.
Hopefully, this is better late than never. Here are the pp's including the line for the Florida Derby:
It looked like D'funny bone is wearing front bandages today?
That's right. D'Funnybone wore front wraps for the first time in his Swale win on Saturday.
And, how good is Asmussen on synthetics anyhow?
According to FormulatorWeb, over the past five years, he is 178-1219 (15%, $1.23 ROI). On dirt, over the same time period, he wins at 23% with a $1.60 ROI. On turf, he is 16% with a $1.22 ROI.
Was looking to see if you could post some of these old performers from NY pp's:
Roman Chef, Subordinate, Sir Ack
Here's what I have for the horses you requested:
Dan and Others;
In the 5th Race at Santa Anita this Wednesday, the #3 horse GOLD STACK has a "w" designation at the end of the conditions from his last race (Clm 12500 N2L - w). I have never seen this before. Pray...do tell...
Here's the "waiver claim" rule from the California Horse Racing Board:
"a) At the time of entry into a claiming race, the owner may opt to declare a horse ineligible to be claimed provided: (1) The horse has been laid off and has not started for a minimum of 180 days since its last race, and (2) The horse is entered for a claiming price equal to or greater than the price at which it last started. (b) Failure to declare the horse ineligible at the time of entry may not be remedied. (c) Ineligibility shall apply only to the first start following each such layoff. NOTE: Authority cited: Sections 19420 and 19440, Business and Professions Code. Reference: Sections 19408.2 and 19562, Business and Professions Code. HISTORY: 1. New rule filed 8-21-08; effective 9-20-08."
Gold Stock was designated a "waiver claim," and thus received a mulligan from being purchased out of the last race.
Hey Dan, Looking for some pps for past BC stars. If you can post DaHoss, Timber Country & Chief Bearhart, that would be great. Thank you sir!
Here they are:
Here are the latest Kentucky Derby Future Odds from Lucky's Las Vegas:
Didn't realize i pick the chalk-xacta, so i amend my HG bet to: $25 Trifecta 6,10/6,10/1,9 With #1 being finally back at grass at a mile and the #8's ability to pair up big races. tencentcielo
Okay after much scanning of the entries and thinking what I want for the HG, I'm picking the late the pick 4 (Races 7-10) at Tampa on Wednesday
Congrats to tencentcielo for finishing first in last week's HandiGambling exercise. This week will be a multi-race HandiGambling.
Pick 4, Rolling Daily Doubles, and Pick 3 wagering are permitted. All selections must be made before the opening leg of the Pick 4. Here are the past performances:
Remember that you have a mythical $100 with which to wager on the race, and the entrant with the highest money total will receive a "Monthly Enhanced 60-Card Past Performance Plan." Anyone going over the $100 limit will be disqualified. In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference.
I know that there is a time issue for some of you, but let's remember why we began the HandiGambling races in the first place. The goal was to share ideas on why we like these horses, and why we're betting them the way we are. I'm not asking for a novel, but if you could spare a sentence or two outlining your handicapping angles, and thought processes about wagering, it would be appreciated.
Best of luck to all.
Cayman, I hit the Double (race9 and 10) for $4.....total of $26.80 Dale
Thank you again Dan. I will keep you updated on his training and where his next start will be.
Afternoon All... Nice to see a few people with a bounce in their step today. Van Savant Alphie's Bet Posted at Noontime EST. Had that winner 5 Hours before Post Time (Redboarding) Aqueduct Race 5 6 weeks ago #8 17-1 Shot Winner Posted 1pm (Redboarding) Santa Anita Last Week $10 Pick 3 Posted 30 minutes before Leg 1. Needed a dead heat in Leg 3 to hit it. (Redboarding) C Never once did I say that this was a wagering "strategy" that produces long term profits. It is a way to spot a chance to gain on someone else's stupidity!! That's it. I have all of the track's on daily and look for an edge. If I see it, I am going to make that small investment. C said: Van Savant, LOL... my personal favorite was the anniversary P4 whim bet at Beulah that paid thousands. Well, first of all, I hope that you enjoy your little joke at my expense. I didn't know that we were in the 3rd grade. The play was an EXACTA,TRIFECTA, AND SUPERFECTA at SARATOGA. My wife and I were married on September 10th. The play was 9-10 Ex. 9-10/9-10/all Trifecta. 9-10/9-10/ all/all Superfecta. She was the one that wanted to play it!! A Pick 4 at Beulah was never bet by me. I think that you need to check on that one. So in the future C, you need to get you fact's straight. You know, you are not always correct!! Blackstone Your a good man my friend. Keep on playing the game. Keno must be a brutal game to play. Annie I know that you have seen me play here since day one. You know how I play. My best to you. I wish for all players to make money every day. This stuff doesn't bother me in the very least. My sister-in law died of Cancer at age 46. This is much more closer to my heart than anything else. Whackymacky Out!!!
$1 pick 4 5-6-11, 5-7, 4-10-12-13, 3-5-6-10
"I see-'it can't be done', unless it has been. Obviously the meaga hits are the difference, and always will be." If you think it's possible to make a comfortable living watching the toteboard and grinding out show bets, I suggest you take a seat next to one of the big shots and ask what they are looking for and copy their every move. Just be sure to ask to see their car keys first. "I'm really close friends with the Manager of the Facility-why would she fib to me? She wouldn't." She may not be consciously lying, but she may have fallen into the same trap you have: believing what she is told by others. She could also be greatly exaggerating their wins based on a few times she perhaps saw them cash a big ticket. A lot of horseplayers overemphasize such things in their own minds. When they finally hit a big one, they claim to be geniuses and forget it was their first winner in 2 years. Does she monitor their losing bets as closely? I doubt it. "My only point in all this is that it is doable, given luck and a couple of other factors." Yes, with dishonesty fueled by ego being the biggest factor. Again, is it logical that the 17 friends are all stupid enough not to finally "get it" and follow along after 20+ years? Something doesn't add up and I think it starts and ends with the game of telephone happening at your OTB.
HG MULTIRACE Preliminary picks (pending scratches - AE's in parentheses for possible use.) Annie, please check the accuracy for me! I will recheck and revise tomorrow. SELECTIONS: TAM7: A - #1 Great Knowledge, #5 Touch The Light B - #2 Ike's Boy, #3 Dixie Loe, #6 Meteor Streak (#11 Cardiac Cat) C - #9 Indy League TAM8: A - #2 Security Breach, #7 Debit Card B - #3 Stylish Act, #5 Bad Medicine c - #1 Archie's Diamond, #6 Lon's Honor TAM9: A - #9 Winthrop House, #10 Sammytheredrocker (#13 Belafonte) B - #4 Broad's Beware (#12 Count Catamount) C - #3 EJ's Little Boy, #5 Fly so Fast, #8 Saratoga Storm TAM10: A - #6 Jane B - #1 Bush Daisy, #4 Nothing So Rare, #10 Primetta C - #5 Unbridled's Jewel (#11 Secret of Marriage) WAGER: R7 $0.50P4 A/AB/A/AB = #1,5/2,3,5,7/9,10/1,4,6,10 = $32 R7 $0.50P4 AB/A/AB/A = #1,2,3,5,6/2,7/4,9,10/6 = $15 R7 $0.50P4 A/A/AB/AB = #1,5/2,7/4,9,10/1,4,6,10 = $24 R7 $1DD A/B = #1,5/3,5 = $4 R7 $1DD B/A = #2,3,6/2,7 = $6 R7 $0.50P4 C/A/A/A = #9/2,7/9,10/6 = $2 R7 $0.50P4 A/C/A/A = #1,5/1,6/9,10/6 = $4 R7 $0.50P4 A/A/C/A = #1,5/2,7/3,5,8/6 = $6 R7 $0.50P4 A/A/A/C = #1,5/2,7/9,10/5 = $4 $3 to cayman for keeping score $100 TOTAL Good luck tomorrow!!!
bobc, Depending on who you follow, a length equals either .20 or .17 of a second. * Alan, The HoFer wasn't a distance specialist. As for the five pack, the Trivia Nazi offers this tidbit: "Know hint 4 U." * HG Multirace $10 P4 12/3/13/2 $90 for Cayman's LASIK surgery.
HG-178 All wagers are $0.50 Pick 4s: 3,5,6 w 2,7 w 9,10 w 2,6,7 = $18 1,2,9 w 2,7 w 9,10 w 2,6,7 = $18 3,5,6 w 4,5 w 9,10 w 2,6,7 = $18 3,5,6 w 2,7 w 2,4 w 2,6,7 = $18 3,5,6 w 2,7 w 9,10 w 1,4,5,10 = $24 2,9 w 2,7 w 4 w 6,7 = $4 Total = $100 Analysis of only my "A" horses. All others used in my bets are "B" horses. Race 7 #3) stretches out; 1st turf; damsire is Gone West; not a great turf trainer; solid jock #5) FTS; solid turf pedigree; great J/T; solid turf trainer; might be too green #6) has yet to run on fast turf; has been putting up solid Bs; moves dirt to turf Race 8 #2) 7-10 ITM; won last out at this class level #7) has won at this level; drops back into this class; should do well here Race 9 #9) Linda Rice - enough said; turf sprint; 2nd off LO; should improve dramatically #10) fits Beyer and class wise; why the breaks between all the races? Race 10 #2) In a field of otherwise undistinguished horses, this FTS has a decent jock/trainer combo that wins at a 11% clip. #6) Makes the most sense out of all these horses #7) Ran on slop in only start; new trainer; why does a 13% jock jump on this horse? getting nice odds
Zan the Man, Seabiscuit lost his first 17 starts. Here are his DRF PPs for his 17th start - an msw at Rockingham Park. As you can see, his record was 16-0-4-4: http://kdl.kyvl.org/cgi/t/text/pageviewer-idx?c=drf1930s;cc=drf1930s;rgn=full%20text;idno=drf1935061101;didno=drf1935061101;view=pdf;seq=32_2;node=drf1935061101%3A32.2 Seabiscuit lost his first 5 races at Hialeah, then the next 5 races in Maryland (at Bowie and the old Havre de Grace racetrack.) Seabiscuit was subsequently shipped further north and finally broke his maiden at Narragansett 8 starts later. The only answer I could find (breaks maiden in 8th start) was the HS to Alydar, the Eclipse Award winning mare Our Mims. I GIVE UP!!!
HG178 R7 Tampa $1 pick 4 2,5/2,5,7/4,9,10/6 ($18) $10 double 2,5/2,5 ($40) R8 Tampa $10 double 2,5/4,9 ($40) Good luck to all Dick W