06/11/2008 2:31PM

El Gran Carryover

Email

2:31 pm: Eight minutes to post for race four, first leg of the pick-six with a $1,186,625 carryover from Belmont Stakes Day courtesy of Da' Tara.

My tickets are in, a little under $2k worth, on what I found to be a skullbuster of a card, one better suited to some $1 pick-3 and pick-4 plays trying to catch bombs in one tough race after another than to nailing six in a row. The sheer size of the pool compels me to play anyway and take my best shot, just in case it's easier than it looks. A caveman ticket using all my A's B's and C's would have run a little more than $46k, so I mixed and matched on seven tickets -- an $1152 main and six smaller single-backup tickets.

Ninety percent of my play involves one of the two favorites winning the first leg. Here's hoping, and good luck to all.

2:50 pm: Second choice My Dinah($6.90) kept the whole world alive for at least one leg, running down 7-5 Love Co in upper stretch and drawing away from 33-1 Aly's Colors. Love Co blazed the first quarter in a crazy 22.52 under Prado, opening a six-length lead that dissipated quickly around the turn, and the final quarter of the race was run in 29.09 (that's not a typo) for a mile in 1:41.57. My Dinah, a half-sister to turf stakes-winner Them There Eyes, is now 3-for-4 on dirt, 0-for-3 on grass.

NYRA's announcing a gross pool of $4.4 million, meaning we all put in about $3.2 million today. Guess the Belmont didn't sour everyone on the game.

3:30 pm: Youbethecan ($21.00), trained by some guy named Rick Dutrow, blew past the field through the stretch to win Leg 2 as the 5th choice in a field of 12. Good news: I used him. Bad news: Only as a "C," so I'm down to one live ticket that singles favorite Dancing Tin Man in the next leg: 8/4,5,9/5,7,8,9/7,8.

Youbethecan ran a dull 5th as the 2-1 favorite in the April 23 version of this $35k N2L grass claimer, then was freshened up by Dutrow during the three editions of the race during May that produced most of the rest of this field. I know the horse's name is pronounced "You Bet He Can" but for some reason I always read it as "You Be The Can."

Let's go Dancing Tin Man.

3:59 pm: Can you say Three Million Dollar Carryover? We could all be saying that in about an hour and a half, after Willsboro Point won Leg 3 at $47.80 , completing a $1937 pick-3 for the first half of the pick-six.

Willsboro Point was hard to like unless you favor pedigree over past performance. He might have been the best-bred colt in the field, out of the multiple turf stakes-winner Petrouchka, but he was coming out of a very slow and slow-paced front-running victory against weaker, where he was claimed by Scott Schwartz from Roy Lerman. That was the race much of the field in the 5th race was coming out of, and all of them ran poorly.

I have no idea why Dancing Tin Man was dead last and in a race of his own far behind all nine of his opponents. Belatedly cut loose, he was running over horses but managed only to get fourth. Oh well.

4:30 pm: Myakka dimmed hopes for a Gargantuan double-carryover py proving best as the 8-5 favorite in Leg 4, surviving an early mild (45.12) duel with Classic Love before pulling away to win this statebred turf sprint in 1:08.86. Second to Lost Without You in her turf debut in the May 26 version of this race, Myakka looked best on paper but I couldn't emphasize her more strongly because it looked like there were six one-way speeds in the race and thus a potential meltdown.

I know the parlay's under $5k through four legs but Willsboro Point was so tough that I still think we could have a carry if anything goofy happens in the last two legs.

Let's go goofy!

5:02 pm: Pennington was insufficiently goofy at $9.20, so eight of the nine horses are covered in the finale. Unless you're alive for something you're probably rooting for #4, Say Karakorm Sandy, the only one who can deliver a $3 million carry. The will-pays, posted above, range from 29 live tickets to favored Ten Forty to just two at $1.49 million to Mackinaw. I guess I'm rooting for either a carryover with SKS or one stinking conso with either Newmont or Estimator, which might get me my money back if they pay around half a percent of the $499.405 or $334,050 top prizes.

5:28 pm: Ten Forty, whose charms I clearly did not appreciate since he was only a "B" in my book, galloped at 4-5 in the finale to enrich 29 sages to the tune of $103,754 apiece. No conso, no carryover, but just wait until next time.

hud More than 1 year ago
who else thinks this whole NYOTB bloomberg/bankruptcy thing is a disgrace...they (Bloomberg and crew) don't count the surcharge since that would have made the bottom line net positive, yet they want ny state to take over the operation, incur the expenses, guarantee a profit (at a 1% increase in takeout cost to the bettors) AND they (Bloomberg and crew) don't want to give up the surcharge...can't have your cake and eat it too....or can you????
florida Larry More than 1 year ago
BB and the Starter .. Kent Desormeaux has added another theory to the growing mystery over what stopped Big Brown in Saturday's Belmont Stakes. The colt's jockey believes that the official starter, Roy Robert Williamson, was unintentionally responsible. Desormeaux said as much Wednesday in a meeting with stewards but did so publicly Thursday. Williamson was standing on the track a few feet off the rail, and Desormeaux thinks that distraction may have cost Big Brown the Triple Crown. "He leaves there like a quarter horse all the time, but this time he left and made a sharp right," Desormeaux said of Big Brown. "Most of the time the starter leans on the fence, not a few feet off. What troubles me most is that the starter didn't stand there like a statue. One thing is to be there, but to push the button and then start to walk away. "I mean he's got bright white pants on and a dark jacket. He stands out like a sore thumb. (It could clarify many issues if BB is allowed to compete in the Travers and then he BC ..... else????)
Mike_in_Saratoga More than 1 year ago
Desormeaux rode horribly in the Belmont, but I have noticed the starter in NY seems to stand oddly close to the start of the race. He needs to get out of the way! No one wants to see him, especially young horses bursting out of the gate for the first time.
Brett More than 1 year ago
Steve (anyone) - thought it was interesting (and sad) that after 2nd race on Belmont card that Inquiry sign didn't go up. Thought it was even stranger that Garcia didn't claim foul - chart says chked hard and lost several lengths. Bailey/Moss then reported that Garcia was angry that there was no outrider to report his claim and race was official by the time he got back. Bailey was shocked that they didn't look at it. Sport doesn't need press like this - wake up Stewards and protect your fans!
kevin morris More than 1 year ago
Steve, I'm reading your "Exotic Betting" and got to your section on stupid exacta tricks where you point out how the quinella is a really lame bet. It made me wonder if this might be a pool where a slightly more sophisticated handicapper could have an advantage.
ray flack More than 1 year ago
The BB saga is beginning to look a lot like the JFK murder and all the conspiracy theories that grew like weeds and still show their ugly blossoms from time to time. Let's face it folks. BB lost the race. Only he knows exactly why and unless they hire a horse whisperer to interview him and get to the facts, I suggest we move on to the next phase. The theory that the starter did it is intriguing but like a lot of other sugestions it is absurd. Movin' on. Ray
kevroc More than 1 year ago
OTB is shutting down and I have $200 left in my phone account. Gonna try to make my last OTB wager a memorble one and play the late pick four Friday night @ Hollywood. (just love watching those races live at night when the kids are asleep!) Farewell OTB, I'll always remember being a 16 year old newbie betting $2 doubles "E with A, B, F" Remember those days?
Annie More than 1 year ago
Steve, What ever happened to that 66 Minute Pick 6 that was supposed to start this Sat.?
L Keller More than 1 year ago
Kevroc: OTB isn't going to close.NYCOTB will become NYSOTB. You'll be able to accumulate some more "fond" memories over the next few years!!
Bochalls More than 1 year ago
Thank you George in Lexington for NOT playing the P6. It's a sucker bet unless you have at least $300 to spend DAILY while chasing this thing...and you will chase it. TVG especially promos the P6 as if everyone should be investing...bad advice! The best way to run new folks out of the game is to get them playing the P6. It is a veteran player/big bankroll type of bet and for TVG to exhaustingly feed this to us is a disservice. By the way, Keeneland is heaven. That is where all beginners should go to get a proper intro to our game. Don't miss out on Beneath The Crown who runs Friday in R7 at Bel, especially if Ballston runs today and scratches out of that race tomorrow.