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Eillo, $$$ Management, Q and D Picks
to all bloggers --- i have a question to ask that i have not recieve any professional answer... does anyone have a bankroll and how do you wager from it . also a bankroll for each wager ?? how much to wager ect... everyone has to wager how do you make it profitable?? would love to hear from you dan --- being a professional, how you wager and the structure you use
In the September 3 FormBlog post, Tinky responded to a similar question from Jim:
jim –" I want to increase the size of my bets but I also want to practice restraint and am afraid to because it may alter the way I handicap and bet. Would appreciate any advice from those of you who have made such a leap to avoid the possible pitfalls."
That's a very good question, and you seem to understand that money management is a crucial
variable in successful gambling. A long time ago, when I finally figured out just how important money management was, I came up with a fairly simple system which I still use when necessary. I suspect that some variation of this system could be of use to you (and perhaps others on the forum). Divide your wagers into two categories: action and prime. The way to think of it is that prime bets are the ones in which you have so much confidence, that in the long run they WILL be profitable. Action bets, on the other hand, are certain to create a loss over time. Now, depending on your bankroll size and comfort level, create a maximum wager size for your action bets, and a minimum wager size for your prime bets. There should be a meaningful spread between the two figures (e.g. in my case it is $50 and $500). This will help to insure that a) you don't lose too much when you place action bets (which should, ideally, be kept to a minimum in any case), and b) you will have a high level of confidence when you place a prime bet, as it will hurt if you lose. Many smart people who gamble on horses still lose over the long run because they squander too much money on less than good opportunities. This type of simple system can help to mitigate against that possibility, and at the same time should help the bettor to refine his or her judgment with regards to identifying prime wagering opportunities.
I then added:
I'm with Tinky here. The best horseplayers are ones that are patient and wait for great betting opportunities. Those, of course, don't come along every single day. It's hard to go to the track day after day, race after race, and sit out. We're there for fun, and that's where an "action" bankroll will come in handy. You'll be able to have a rooting interest in the day's races, make some plays, and keep your handicapping sharp. Then, when the great opportunities arise, you can confidently take the rubber band off the "main" bankroll with confidence. I prefer to be patient, but I've used a variation of Tinky's two-bankroll strategy for a long time now, and it works for me.
Getting back to troy's question, the key for me is patience, patience, patience. I am willing to wait until I find a situation in which I'm really confident. I will play exactas and multi-race wagers, but I'm always looking to exploit an overlay in the win pool. I also think that it's very important to keep diligent records, and to specialize if possible. More comfortable playing maiden races? Stick to them, and don't waste your time and energy on those pesky optional claimers.
Each handicapper has to find their own personal comfort zone as to the amount invested on these "A" and "Action" bankrolls. Play with whatever makes you comfortable. Once you're out of that comfort zone, the pressure becomes enormous, and it's not worth the aggravation.
Running very late at work tonight so here are some quick and dirty plays for a few of this weekend's stakes races:
Lanes End Breeders' Futurity: Square Eddie, Flashmans Papers, Notonthesamepage
Shadwell Turf Mile: Lovelace, Rahy's Attorney
Frizette: Persistently, Gemswick Park, Heavenly Vision
Champagne: Gone Astray, Munnings, Brave Victory
E.P. Taylor: J'Ray, Folk Opera, Toque de Queda
Canadian International: Mourilyan, Doctor Dino, Lauro
Spinster: Unbridled Belle
Arc de Triomphe: Duke of Marmalade, Soldier of Fortune, Zarkava
Still have a lot of questions and comments to respond to, but I'll have to get to them next time.
Best of luck this weekend!
Justin, thank you for that, if something constructive comes to mind I will. Actually, if there is only one thing I could offer in the way of advice for the Zayats as they grow it would be this. Stay away from Kent D! I'm just kidding, man. No, it's this. I read Steve T.'s post about your California presence and it made me think of something, something that has the possibility of being very useful to you. I have followed Northern California racing for years (raised here). Over that time, including recent time, one thing has become abundantly clear. Greg Gilchrist is probably the best trainer - with any kind of horse - that no one has ever heard of (essentially). But more than that, much more than that, is his incredible eye for runners, especially young ones at the sales, often at bargain basement pricing. This man has a gift. Harry Aleo's was Gilchrist's long-time, number-one client, a WWII hero - maybe patron is a better word than client in this case, when you consider the length of the relationship and the artistry involved, and with Mr. Aleo's passing recently I believe he has room for new clients. I have no idea what the man is like, personality-wise. None. If you look at the work, the body of the work over the last twenty years, it's remarkable. When people think NoCal they think the "king" Jerry Hollendorfer, but the truth is, while Hollendorfer is great, Gilchrist is special. He almost won the BC Sprint with a filly, Soviet Problem. He's had unbelievable turf runners. If your concern is becoming homebred strong, maybe this is not a good fit (or maybe it is, I don't know), but if you are looking for young racehorses who can win on the track and don't need to have their hometrack to do it, if you want unique runners, who do it with style and grace like an Indyanne or Lost In The Fog, who needn't be sale toppers, then he's golden. If I could have one guy next to me at the sales - this would be that guy. If you look at his horses, just look at them, it's obvious he has the "eye." When they hit the track, they tend to be uniquely beautiful with "runner" written all over them. There. I have said it. Best wishes.
Katie, Thank you and congrats on your nice run! I am going to check my e-mail now. Annie
Hillbilly, I still have my PP's from Sat., so I can tell you that Square Eddie's dam is Forty Gran by El Gran Senor; but, that's all I know about it. I'm sure Laura can help. Annie
Oh, Steve, I would love any help I can get!!! This is an awful predicament. I have to make up $40.00 on #1 and $27.60 and $27.20 on #2 & 3. And it has to be done in ONE race. That's providing contest support gets my earnings straightened out. I earned $60.80 last week on Elusive Bluff through Driving Snow and was only credited with $52, not the $8.80 for Indyanne. Haven't heard from them yet, but I e-mailed them on Sunday and I suppose there were not too many around. What are the odds of getting a Marsh Side at the exact time I need it? Groan Haven't looked at the PPs yet, but I won't even know what their odds are until Wed. or maybe Tues. Anyway, any insights by you or the other fine handicappers on here would be much appreciated! Annie
Annie, Do you want any help with the BC contest, or would we be a hindrance?
My last post before a self-imposed hiatus. I need to be fresh for the Breeder’s Cup. No racing at all. A 3 week vacation should be the just the tonic I need. I have been going hard every weekend for months and occasionally my brain gets out of whack. If you handicap enough races, eventually you just see too much. You see horses win from every single possible angle and you get bogged down and forget your fundamentals and then can’t throw any horses out. I’m not there yet but I see it coming. So I am “going back to the farm” for a freshening. Hope I can fire fresh off the layoff. But some observations before I take my leave: We had two examples this weekend of good horses getting back to doing what they do best. One, Arson Squad got back to dirt and found the winners circle again. He clearly hated synthetics. Why it took so long for his owners to send him east is a mystery. Two, Tale of Ekati got back to a one turn race and beat a good field in the Jerome. It was over Dan’s infatuation with TOE that I made my first post. Dan, you will be happy to know that I cashed on TOE yesterday. One of my few winners. This years Breeder’s may be the hardest ever because of the synthetic factor and the resultant emigration of top Europeans. Other than Zenyatta, I don’t think there is a certain standout in any single race. Oh, how I would like to see Zarkava and Zenyatta hook up!! Perhaps in Dubai, as they also convert to a synthetic track next year. We need to lobby for that now. I’m still paralyzed as to what to do when I like more than one longshot in a race. In the 8th at SA on Sat, I had 3--the #1, #6 and #7. I could not separate, so I bet them all—the #1 to WPS and the #6 and #7 to WP. That goes against my rule of betting against myself with multiple WPS bets. Then I boxed all 3 in an exacta. They ran one, two, four. I hit pretty good (would have been fantastic if the #1 had nosed out the #6) and it bailed me out of an otherwise crappy weekend but I still feel as if I could have maximized my investment better as the $1 tri with the #11 paid $7,300 and the $1 super paid $330k. I doubt anyone had it for that much because that seems too high of a pool so my guess is someone took down the whole pool with a $.10 super. But just the thought that I bet 3 of the 4 in such a monster payoff has me rethinking my betting strategies. I could have shared in that one. I’m also sick that I have chased Thorn Song all summer and when I finally get off him, he romps. Example #3 of a horse that got to do what I knew he wanted to, go a mile on the turf. That’s the biggest sign for me to take a break. Tiago, SSSHHHH, lay low so your price will rise. Good luck to everyone until the Breeder’s.
slewofdamascus Here is a link for Zarkava: http://www.pedigreequery.com/zarkava I'll let Laura do the analysis. SR Vegas
Alan, That scratch rule stinks (but I understand it...)! I was intentionally playing against Unbridled Belle over the Polytrack... probably like many on this board...
slewofdamascus, What do you suggest we should have done differently with You and I Forever? He showed nothing this winter early on at Payson park and he is just one of those late developers like Mambo in Seattle and Grasshopper. Do you think he could have been a derby horse with Frankel?
Hillbilly Here's a link for pedigree on Square Eddie: http://www.pedigreequery.com/square+eddie SR Vegas (in short, Sire is Smart Stike. And Dam is Forty Gran by El Gran Senor.)