10/14/2007 10:33AM

Eight Carryovers

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Today's a rare Sunday when there's not a single graded stakes race being run in the United States (I'm not counting the $40k Arabian Sprint Championship at Delaware, a "Grade 1" for Arabians.) But we do have eight pick-six carryovers from coast to coast:

$132,412--Oak Tree
$124,790--Belmont
$51,793--Keeneland
$11,263--Laurel
$6,792--Woodbine
$5,646--Hawthorne
$3,346--Los Alamitos
$2,153--Fresno

There's actually a ninth pending carryover, one even smaller than Fresno's: No one picked six at Penn National Friday night, so $176 of the $374 pool (no kidding) will be waiting when racing resumes Tuesday night. Start burning the midnight oil.

Like scaling Mt. Everest for some or visiting all 30 Major League Baseball stadiums for others, chasing eight carryovers in one day is on my life-list of things to do. It's not going to happen today, though, as I'm getting a late enough start on Belmont's double carry after returning from a pleasant Hawthorne Derby Day.

Hawthorne, for those who haven't had the pleasure, is a big, broad-shouldered, brick-laden plant on the south side of Chicago, right on the border of Stickey and Cicero. It looks like a lot more racetracks used to look, with huge, high-ceilinged areas that go on forever rather than the smaller rooms that other tracks have redesigned themselves around to create the illusion of more traffic. It's not a verdant, palatial place like Arlington in the northern suburbs, but the Chicago regulars I talked with were almost unanimous in their relief to be playing an old-fashioned dirt track again after a confusing summer of the new Polytrack at Arlington.

In the Hawthorne Derby, Bold Hawk got up at the wire to beat Twilight Meteor by a head, albeit at $10 rather than the 10-1 ML odds that attracted me to him, but better a short price than a long face, right?

This Belmont carry is no picnic. It's bookended by a pair of 2-year-old filly maiden races, each with five firsters, and I don't understand why the day's first (a 10-horse field with established form) and last (a 10-horse field with five first-timers) couldn't have been switched so that pick-four and pick-six players weren't betting blindly into the nightcap. I'm tempted to keep my play small and just single double-top-fig Tazarine in the finale, despite her 0-for-38 rider [update: late rider change to Chavez], rather than guessing in the dark on firsters from Albertrani, Clement, Dollase, Pletcher and Martin.

Or maybe I'll just take a pass and get an early start on Penn National.


Hammer More than 1 year ago
Hawthorne has the old racetrack feeling to it. It does not pretend to be a playground for families or a meat market bar for singles. Just good ol' horse racing with full fields and winners and losers.
dan c More than 1 year ago
Personnally I wish every bet was 10cents to avoid the worst rule in horse racing, IRS. The 10cent super almost eliminates super players from tax, you just repeat your ticket numorous times, 50cent pick 4's have helped, but not enough. I do not bet the pick 6 for the reasons you guys have said, I refuse to split with someone else, and I do not have the money to spread enough to have a fair chance. My last pick 6 was when Point given got beat in the derby of course I needed him, the one previous I needed Banchee Breeze at 2-5 and Escena wired um cause Bailey butchered the ride. After 5 of 6 twice like that I decided rolling pick 3 and pick 4s are my game. You can hit big on breeders cup day by spreading like crazy. Pick 1 or 2 key horses in 3 different races, then spread like mad, take chances not favorites, dont be afraid to leave the favorite out, last yr no Henny hughes, no lost in fog 2 yrs ago, leave Nashoba out, leave Stover out, leave Prussian out, and save a ticket or 2 with them. You want 50,000 you dont need a pick 6 and if it pays higher you wont have it on a small budget anyway.
Clinton More than 1 year ago
The pk 6 is supposed to be a challenge. Having "form" doesn't equate to improving the bettors probability of hitting the bet. After all, using your example of switching the 1st race with one of the two mdn races, what form did Keuka Maid($50) display prior to yesterday's win?
BillM More than 1 year ago
Steve, Completely off the subject of carryovers, I have a few questions. First, within the Trainer Patterns' section of Simulcast Weekly, is a "stretchout" considered strictly a sprint distance to route, or any increase in distance (ex. 6 to 7 f. or 8 to 8.5f). Conversely, does that apply to "turnbacks"? Next, when calculating pace figures for a specific track, what approach do you take? I've read Brohamer's book, starting with the 10k claimers and go from there, but do you go through the rest of the conditions, or not? Also, you discussed pace figs on the 2007 Expo DVD, I don't think there was any mention of DRF track variants. It seems like I've read a couple different pieces regarding them as unreliable, and I can't find them within the result charts on Simulcast Online. Basically, what approach do you take on gauging the speed of a track on a day-to-day basis? Finally, -I swear-, I tried to do the pace figs and average variant(using DRF's) at Gulfstream earlier this year, I found it interesting DRF gave the same variant to the one turn mile as they did for races nine furlongs and longer(two turns). How can this be accurate? The horses going a mile from the chute are running over ground that the two turn horses won't even step foot on during the course of their race. Please explain. Thanks a lot.
Jack Pritchard More than 1 year ago
Dear Steve, where in the hell do you get all of your energy?After a day at the races, I'm ready for a week's vacation.I understand racetrack managment's position, by "carding" the pick -6 so you've got to dig deep into your pockets just to give a bettor somekind of chance.This is a tremendous advantage for the "high rollers" who, win the vast majority of the pick-6s.Managment should have NO interest in the manipulation of the race-card, as they have NO intrest in the outcome of a race, this kind of practice at many tracks across the country is "Bleeding" the small bettors.Everyday this little player has 4 or 5 winners, through his diligent homework' just to get BLOWN out by a group of Madiens, that are "Deliberately" carded by managment to attract the "High-rollers." This is UNFAIR practice by short sighted managment. That pick-6 money is very hard to recuperate, my proposal to racetrack managment is this, on every Saturday give the little guy a break, simply "card" six races with horse's with form , and watch the little guy's suceed, just ONE day a week Steve, and then YOU highrollers can have the rest. Managment across this country, have always been "out of touch" with the pulse of the horse-playre's
Brian More than 1 year ago
Jack- I respectfully disagree: - The pick 6 is meant to be a tough, high paying wager. . . and huge carryovers add to the excitement. . . - Carryovers actually help small players because they are getting more money out than they put in. - No matter how formful the sequence appears "high rollers" will ALWAYS have an advantage - Tracks have already made attempts to help out the "little guy" by introducing 10-cent supers, 50-cent tris and pk4s, etc. . . The pick six is simply a different animal than other wagers and I don't see any problem with the way tracks deal with it now. . .
Floppydog More than 1 year ago
Go get the 8! Go get the 8! I haven't hit ONE since '91! Go get the eight!