10/31/2011 3:04PM

Early Breeders' Cup Thoughts, Catching Up...

Email

I've taken a quick glance at the Breeders' Cup past performances and came up with a few preliminary ideas.

JUVENILE FILLIES TURF:

I really like SOMALI LEMONADE, so of course she went ahead and drew post 14 earlier this afternoon.  A perfect 2-2 on grass for trainer Michael Matz, Somali Lemonade rallied professionally from well off the pace to take the Jessamine at Keeneland in her first start against winners.  She'll need things to work out for her from a trip perspective, however, and there may not be a ton of pace for her to attack.  I may use her with the Europeans ELUSIVE KATE and DEAR LAVINIA, and Alcibiades winner STEPHANIE'S KITTEN.

JUVENILE FILLIES:

I don't really have a handle on this one as I'm wavering back and forth between undefeated WEEMISSFRANKIE and longshot PUTTHEBABIESDOWN.  Both should receive fast splits in which to rally into.  Weemissfrankie is extremely logical after handling this distance and surface in the Oak Leaf at Santa Anita.  Putthebabiesdown has yet to race on dirt and she supposedly didn't work very well on the surface the other day.  Still, she looks like a filly on the improve and she wasn't disgraced in her main track debut, the Alcibiades on polytrack.  MY MISS AURELIA doesn't need the lead and could get the jump on the late-runners from slightly off the pace.  I can't toss her, but she may be an underlay on the win end as she tries two turns for the first time.

BC FM TURF:

It's hard for me to separate NAHRAIN and ANNOUNCE, the 1-2 finishers in the Group 1 Prix de l'Opera on Arc afternoon at Longchamp.  The latter relishes firm ground and has been in excellent form as of late for Andre Fabre.  She may go off the slightly better value than the undefeated Nahrain, who caught the head-bob over her main rival in France.  Nahrain also won't mind firm going, but this is the longest she's had to run thus far.  The speedy MISTY FOR ME, conqueror of Midday two starts back in the Pretty Polly over yielding going, merits more respect on "off" going while STACELITA can never be counted out.

LADIES CLASSIC:

How'sa 'bout a longshot?  MISS MATCH upset the Grade 1 Santa Margarita Stakes at this distance back in March and has kept tough company ever since (faced Havre de Grace in the Apple Blossom, Blind Luck in the Vanity, and males in her last two races).  She needs pace as she likes to do her best running from out of it, but ASK THE MOON and PLUM PRETTY may oblige up front.  Plum Pretty, the talented IT'S TRICKY and ROYAL DELTA are all three-year-old fillies that can certainly win this.

***

BC MARATHON:

It's hard for me to go against favored A. U. MINER, who was so impressive in finishing first in the Greenwood Cup at Parx on July 16 (subsequently disqualified from purse money after a drug positive).  In his most recent start, he took on the big boys in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, rallying belatedly behind BC Classic-bound runners Flat Out, Drosselmeyer and Stay Thirsty.  As I begin to wean off GIANT OAK, I can see myself selecting him second.  CEASE may be the now horse in the division while BIRDRUN could control things up front.

***

BC JUVENILE TURF:

CASPAR NETSCHER gave a solid late flurry through traffic when fifth in the Group 1 Middle Park Stakes at Newmarket on October 8.  A multiple Group 2 winner in England, Caspar Netscher is a battle-tested colt (nine lifetime starts) that has been pointed to this race since, at least, mid-August.  He must stretch out a quarter of a mile for the first time at Churchill and has a tendency to break slowly, but there is some speed to set things up for him in the lane.  WROTE and FARRAAJ are Europeans that also merit respect.

***

Here are the top 25 Winning Beyer Speed Figures from last week's racing action (10/24/11 - 10/30/11):

1.  QUIET INVADER - 100 - OC 62k/N2X -N - 6 Furlongs - Santa Anita
2.  COURTSIDE - 98 - California Cup Sprint - 6 Furlongs - Santa Anita
3.  WISE DAN - 97 - Fayette Stakes (G2) - 1 1/8 Miles (Polytrack) - Keeneland
4.  NORVSKY - 96 - California Cup Classic - 1 1/8 Miles (Turf) - Santa Anita
4.  UNITAS - 96 - Alw 34280N1X - 6 1/2 Furlongs - Delta
6.  PASO DOBLE - 95 - Alw 78280NC - 6 Furlongs (Polytrack) - Woodbine
6.  R GYPSY GOLD - 95 - Real Prize Stakes - 1 1/16 Miles - Belmont
6.  STORMY LORD - 95 - Labeeb Stakes - 1 Mile (Turf) - Woodbine
9.  TRINITY RUN - 94 - OC 40k/N2X - 6 Furlongs - Delaware
9.  UNZIP ME - 94 - California Cup Distaff - 6 1/2 Furlongs (Turf) - Santa Anita
11. ATLANTIC HURRICANE - 93 - Ontario Fashion Stakes - 6 Furlongs (Polytrack) - Woodbine
11. BERGERAC - 93 - Alw 55031N3X - 1 1/16 Miles (Polytrack) - Keeneland
11. MY BAD - 93 - Alw 69609N1X - 1 Mile (Turf) - Woodbine
14. BALLADRY - 92 - OC 40k/N1X -N - 1 1/16 Miles - Santa Anita
14. GENTLEMANSAPPROVAL - 92 - Clm 16000 - 6 1/2 Furlongs (Polytrack) - Keeneland
14. MANDATED BLISS - 92 - Alw 61050N1X - 6 1/2 Furlongs - Santa Anita
14. MIDDIE - 92 - Alw 49510N1X - 1 1/16 Miles (Polytrack) - Keeneland
14. PAPAW BODIE - 92 - Clm c-50000 - 1 1/16 Miles (Polytrack) - Keeneland
19. GHOST GUNNER - 91 - OC 25k/N2X -N - 1 Mile - Laurel
19. LONG LAKE KRISTA - 91 - Alw 51146N1X - 7 Furlongs (Polytrack) - Keeneland
21. ABDEL'S GHOST - 90 - Alw 10000s - 6 Furlongs - Calder
21. BEN'S CAT - 90 - Laurel Dash - 6 Furlongs - Laurel
21. CLEMENT ROCK - 90 - Shady Character Stakes - 1 Mile (Turf) - Belmont
21. JACK O' LANTERN - 90 - Alw 25800N3X - 6 Furlongs - Mountaineer
21. OREGON LADY - 90 - River Memories Stakes - 1 Mile (Turf) - Woodbine
21. WEE FREUDIAN - 90 - OC 25k/N2X -N - 6 Furlongs - Belmont

QUIET INVADER's past performances are available at the bottom of this blog post.

PAPAW BODIE was claimed by Michael Maker.

***

Here are the top 25 Winning Beyer Speed Figures (10/17/11 - 10/23/11):

1.  CANDYMAN E - 102 - Frank J. DeFrancis Memorial Dash - 6 Furlongs - Laurel
2.  GANTRY - 100 - OC 35k/N3L -N - 6 Furlongs - Belmont
3.  ROYAL TRICON - 98 - Alw 25000s - 6 Furlongs - Calder
3.  SOURDOUGH SAM - 98 - Oakland Stakes - 6 Furlongs (Tapeta) - Golden Gate
5.  COMPLIANCE OFFICER - 97 - Mohawk Stakes - 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - Belmont
6.  CONCHACER - 96 - Clm 18000(18-16) - 6 Furlongs - Hawthorne
6.  FOUR LEFT FEET - 96 - Lightning Jet Handicap - 6 Furlongs - Hawthorne
6.  HAYNESFIELD - 96 - Empire Classic Stakes - 1 1/8 Miles - Belmont
6.  HYMN BOOK - 96 - Firethorn Stakes - 1 1/16 Miles - Belmont
6.  ROOSTER CITY - 96 - OC 50k/N2X - 1 Mile (Turf) - Golden Gate
11. ATTA BOY ROY - 95 - Alw 53900C - 1 Mile - Santa Anita
11. CAPIXABA - 95 - Clm 5000N1Y - 5 Furlongs - Delaware
11. SUCCESSFUL SONG - 95 - Bea Oxenberg Memorial Stakes - 1 Mile - Calder
11. PENDER HARBOUR - 94 - Bunty Lawless Stakes - 1 Mile (Turf) - Woodbine
11. GENERAL MAXIMUS - 93 - Hudson Stakes - 6 Furlongs - Belmont
11. MIGHTY RULE - 93 - OC 35k/N2X - 6 1/2 Furlongs - Hawthorne
11. SENADA - 93 - Dowager Stakes - 1 1/2 Miles (Turf) - Keeneland
11. SUMMER MOVIE - 93 - OC 62k/N2X - 1 1/16 Miles - Santa Anita
19. BIG LOOIE - 92 - Buck's Boy Handicap - 1 1/16 Miles - Hawthorne
19. COTTON TOP PHIL - 92 - Alw 46060N1X - 6 Furlongs - Delaware
19. IT'S ME MOM - 92 - Robert M. O'Malley Stakes - 6 Furlongs - Suffolk
19. MANITO - 92 - Clm c-15000 - 6 Furlongs - Delaware
19. SANAGAS (Ger) - 92 - Sycamore Stakes (G3) - 1 5/8 Miles (Polytrack) - Keeneland
24. AL INSTANTE (Chi) - 91 - OC 62k/N2X -N - 6 1/2 Furlongs (Turf) - Santa Anita
24. ATTACK JACK - 91 - Clm 7500N2Y - 6 Furlongs - Parx
24. BELL BY THE RIDGE - 91 - OC 35k/N2X -N - 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - Hawthorne
24. C C'S PAL - 91 - Miss Golden Circle Stakes - 7 Furlongs - Belmont
24. GRIGIO - 91 - Md Sp Wt 49k - 1 1/16 Miles (Polytrack) - Keeneland
24. PARENT'S HONOR - 91 - OC 40k/N3X -N - 6 1/2 Furlongs - Parx
24. THIRD CHANCE - 91 - Powerless Handicap - 6 Furlongs - Hawthorne

CANDYMAN E's past performances are available at the bottom of this blog post.

MANITO was claimed by Dane Kobiskie.

***

Hi Dan, I see Sarah Lynx hit the top Beyer last week....can you believe how the rail opened up for her? Pretty fortunate trip.
Dan, I'm wondering if Presious Passion has been retired? Have not heard his name lately. Could you post his pp's? Have to say that his '09 Monmouth Stakes win has to be one of the most courageous efforts I've ever seen.
Take care, Greg

After finishing fifth in the Sunshine Millions Turf at Santa Anita on January 29, eight-year-old PRESIOUS PASSION underwent throat surgery in preparation for a run in the United Nations Handicap at Monmouth on July 2.  Reportedly, he wasn't very enthusiastic about training and was sent to the farm by trainer Mary Hartmann.  I haven't found an "official" retirement note so it's possible that he could return to action, but I wouldn't be surprised if he's all done with racing.  The soon-to-be nine-year-old doesn't owe his connections a penny.

His lifetime past performances are available at the bottom of theis blog entry.

***

Dan,
could you post the pp's for english channel
addc26

His past performances are available at the bottom of this blog post.

***

hey dan, youre the best, can you please dust off the old record books and find me the lifetime pp's of a horse my friend paul truitt 7 myself used to own 7 train "smileasigoby" thanks again dan
$bill

They're available at the bottom of this blog post.

***

No hurry Dan but I am hoping you can help to settle a bet. I saw War Heim win at 55-1 at either Hollywood Park or Santa Anita sometime between 1971 and 1974. My friend insists it was Blenheim King. Can you provide me the PP's for War Heim. Thanks.
I am looking foreard to you and Beer running down the BC in less than 2 weeks!
Bob

Bob, my past performance generator doesn't go back that far, but I do know that War Heim won the 1971 Strub Stakes at 49-1 odds at Santa Anita for trainer Dale Landers.  Perhaps that's the race that you're thinking about...

I also found a fascinating article about Blenheim King at the below link:

http://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=1356&dat=19760115&id=uLBPAAAAIBAJ&sjid=gwUEAAAAIBAJ&pg=2984,3067726

***

Congrats to Bobby for finishing first in last week's HandiGambling exercise.  This week's race is the BC Classic.  I'll post the full skinny before I hit the road to Churchill on Wednesday.

AttachmentSize
QuietInvader.pdf655.51 KB
CandymanE.pdf656.36 KB
PresiousPassion.pdf73.54 KB
English Channel.pdf64.17 KB
smileasigoby.pdf42.91 KB