10/31/2011 2:04PM

Early Breeders' Cup Thoughts, Catching Up...

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I've taken a quick glance at the Breeders' Cup past performances and came up with a few preliminary ideas.

JUVENILE FILLIES TURF:

I really like SOMALI LEMONADE, so of course she went ahead and drew post 14 earlier this afternoon.  A perfect 2-2 on grass for trainer Michael Matz, Somali Lemonade rallied professionally from well off the pace to take the Jessamine at Keeneland in her first start against winners.  She'll need things to work out for her from a trip perspective, however, and there may not be a ton of pace for her to attack.  I may use her with the Europeans ELUSIVE KATE and DEAR LAVINIA, and Alcibiades winner STEPHANIE'S KITTEN.

JUVENILE FILLIES:

I don't really have a handle on this one as I'm wavering back and forth between undefeated WEEMISSFRANKIE and longshot PUTTHEBABIESDOWN.  Both should receive fast splits in which to rally into.  Weemissfrankie is extremely logical after handling this distance and surface in the Oak Leaf at Santa Anita.  Putthebabiesdown has yet to race on dirt and she supposedly didn't work very well on the surface the other day.  Still, she looks like a filly on the improve and she wasn't disgraced in her main track debut, the Alcibiades on polytrack.  MY MISS AURELIA doesn't need the lead and could get the jump on the late-runners from slightly off the pace.  I can't toss her, but she may be an underlay on the win end as she tries two turns for the first time.

BC FM TURF:

It's hard for me to separate NAHRAIN and ANNOUNCE, the 1-2 finishers in the Group 1 Prix de l'Opera on Arc afternoon at Longchamp.  The latter relishes firm ground and has been in excellent form as of late for Andre Fabre.  She may go off the slightly better value than the undefeated Nahrain, who caught the head-bob over her main rival in France.  Nahrain also won't mind firm going, but this is the longest she's had to run thus far.  The speedy MISTY FOR ME, conqueror of Midday two starts back in the Pretty Polly over yielding going, merits more respect on "off" going while STACELITA can never be counted out.

LADIES CLASSIC:

How'sa 'bout a longshot?  MISS MATCH upset the Grade 1 Santa Margarita Stakes at this distance back in March and has kept tough company ever since (faced Havre de Grace in the Apple Blossom, Blind Luck in the Vanity, and males in her last two races).  She needs pace as she likes to do her best running from out of it, but ASK THE MOON and PLUM PRETTY may oblige up front.  Plum Pretty, the talented IT'S TRICKY and ROYAL DELTA are all three-year-old fillies that can certainly win this.

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BC MARATHON:

It's hard for me to go against favored A. U. MINER, who was so impressive in finishing first in the Greenwood Cup at Parx on July 16 (subsequently disqualified from purse money after a drug positive).  In his most recent start, he took on the big boys in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, rallying belatedly behind BC Classic-bound runners Flat Out, Drosselmeyer and Stay Thirsty.  As I begin to wean off GIANT OAK, I can see myself selecting him second.  CEASE may be the now horse in the division while BIRDRUN could control things up front.

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BC JUVENILE TURF:

CASPAR NETSCHER gave a solid late flurry through traffic when fifth in the Group 1 Middle Park Stakes at Newmarket on October 8.  A multiple Group 2 winner in England, Caspar Netscher is a battle-tested colt (nine lifetime starts) that has been pointed to this race since, at least, mid-August.  He must stretch out a quarter of a mile for the first time at Churchill and has a tendency to break slowly, but there is some speed to set things up for him in the lane.  WROTE and FARRAAJ are Europeans that also merit respect.

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Here are the top 25 Winning Beyer Speed Figures from last week's racing action (10/24/11 - 10/30/11):

1.  QUIET INVADER - 100 - OC 62k/N2X -N - 6 Furlongs - Santa Anita
2.  COURTSIDE - 98 - California Cup Sprint - 6 Furlongs - Santa Anita
3.  WISE DAN - 97 - Fayette Stakes (G2) - 1 1/8 Miles (Polytrack) - Keeneland
4.  NORVSKY - 96 - California Cup Classic - 1 1/8 Miles (Turf) - Santa Anita
4.  UNITAS - 96 - Alw 34280N1X - 6 1/2 Furlongs - Delta
6.  PASO DOBLE - 95 - Alw 78280NC - 6 Furlongs (Polytrack) - Woodbine
6.  R GYPSY GOLD - 95 - Real Prize Stakes - 1 1/16 Miles - Belmont
6.  STORMY LORD - 95 - Labeeb Stakes - 1 Mile (Turf) - Woodbine
9.  TRINITY RUN - 94 - OC 40k/N2X - 6 Furlongs - Delaware
9.  UNZIP ME - 94 - California Cup Distaff - 6 1/2 Furlongs (Turf) - Santa Anita
11. ATLANTIC HURRICANE - 93 - Ontario Fashion Stakes - 6 Furlongs (Polytrack) - Woodbine
11. BERGERAC - 93 - Alw 55031N3X - 1 1/16 Miles (Polytrack) - Keeneland
11. MY BAD - 93 - Alw 69609N1X - 1 Mile (Turf) - Woodbine
14. BALLADRY - 92 - OC 40k/N1X -N - 1 1/16 Miles - Santa Anita
14. GENTLEMANSAPPROVAL - 92 - Clm 16000 - 6 1/2 Furlongs (Polytrack) - Keeneland
14. MANDATED BLISS - 92 - Alw 61050N1X - 6 1/2 Furlongs - Santa Anita
14. MIDDIE - 92 - Alw 49510N1X - 1 1/16 Miles (Polytrack) - Keeneland
14. PAPAW BODIE - 92 - Clm c-50000 - 1 1/16 Miles (Polytrack) - Keeneland
19. GHOST GUNNER - 91 - OC 25k/N2X -N - 1 Mile - Laurel
19. LONG LAKE KRISTA - 91 - Alw 51146N1X - 7 Furlongs (Polytrack) - Keeneland
21. ABDEL'S GHOST - 90 - Alw 10000s - 6 Furlongs - Calder
21. BEN'S CAT - 90 - Laurel Dash - 6 Furlongs - Laurel
21. CLEMENT ROCK - 90 - Shady Character Stakes - 1 Mile (Turf) - Belmont
21. JACK O' LANTERN - 90 - Alw 25800N3X - 6 Furlongs - Mountaineer
21. OREGON LADY - 90 - River Memories Stakes - 1 Mile (Turf) - Woodbine
21. WEE FREUDIAN - 90 - OC 25k/N2X -N - 6 Furlongs - Belmont

QUIET INVADER's past performances are available at the bottom of this blog post.

PAPAW BODIE was claimed by Michael Maker.

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Here are the top 25 Winning Beyer Speed Figures (10/17/11 - 10/23/11):

1.  CANDYMAN E - 102 - Frank J. DeFrancis Memorial Dash - 6 Furlongs - Laurel
2.  GANTRY - 100 - OC 35k/N3L -N - 6 Furlongs - Belmont
3.  ROYAL TRICON - 98 - Alw 25000s - 6 Furlongs - Calder
3.  SOURDOUGH SAM - 98 - Oakland Stakes - 6 Furlongs (Tapeta) - Golden Gate
5.  COMPLIANCE OFFICER - 97 - Mohawk Stakes - 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - Belmont
6.  CONCHACER - 96 - Clm 18000(18-16) - 6 Furlongs - Hawthorne
6.  FOUR LEFT FEET - 96 - Lightning Jet Handicap - 6 Furlongs - Hawthorne
6.  HAYNESFIELD - 96 - Empire Classic Stakes - 1 1/8 Miles - Belmont
6.  HYMN BOOK - 96 - Firethorn Stakes - 1 1/16 Miles - Belmont
6.  ROOSTER CITY - 96 - OC 50k/N2X - 1 Mile (Turf) - Golden Gate
11. ATTA BOY ROY - 95 - Alw 53900C - 1 Mile - Santa Anita
11. CAPIXABA - 95 - Clm 5000N1Y - 5 Furlongs - Delaware
11. SUCCESSFUL SONG - 95 - Bea Oxenberg Memorial Stakes - 1 Mile - Calder
11. PENDER HARBOUR - 94 - Bunty Lawless Stakes - 1 Mile (Turf) - Woodbine
11. GENERAL MAXIMUS - 93 - Hudson Stakes - 6 Furlongs - Belmont
11. MIGHTY RULE - 93 - OC 35k/N2X - 6 1/2 Furlongs - Hawthorne
11. SENADA - 93 - Dowager Stakes - 1 1/2 Miles (Turf) - Keeneland
11. SUMMER MOVIE - 93 - OC 62k/N2X - 1 1/16 Miles - Santa Anita
19. BIG LOOIE - 92 - Buck's Boy Handicap - 1 1/16 Miles - Hawthorne
19. COTTON TOP PHIL - 92 - Alw 46060N1X - 6 Furlongs - Delaware
19. IT'S ME MOM - 92 - Robert M. O'Malley Stakes - 6 Furlongs - Suffolk
19. MANITO - 92 - Clm c-15000 - 6 Furlongs - Delaware
19. SANAGAS (Ger) - 92 - Sycamore Stakes (G3) - 1 5/8 Miles (Polytrack) - Keeneland
24. AL INSTANTE (Chi) - 91 - OC 62k/N2X -N - 6 1/2 Furlongs (Turf) - Santa Anita
24. ATTACK JACK - 91 - Clm 7500N2Y - 6 Furlongs - Parx
24. BELL BY THE RIDGE - 91 - OC 35k/N2X -N - 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - Hawthorne
24. C C'S PAL - 91 - Miss Golden Circle Stakes - 7 Furlongs - Belmont
24. GRIGIO - 91 - Md Sp Wt 49k - 1 1/16 Miles (Polytrack) - Keeneland
24. PARENT'S HONOR - 91 - OC 40k/N3X -N - 6 1/2 Furlongs - Parx
24. THIRD CHANCE - 91 - Powerless Handicap - 6 Furlongs - Hawthorne

CANDYMAN E's past performances are available at the bottom of this blog post.

MANITO was claimed by Dane Kobiskie.

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Hi Dan, I see Sarah Lynx hit the top Beyer last week....can you believe how the rail opened up for her? Pretty fortunate trip.
Dan, I'm wondering if Presious Passion has been retired? Have not heard his name lately. Could you post his pp's? Have to say that his '09 Monmouth Stakes win has to be one of the most courageous efforts I've ever seen.
Take care, Greg

After finishing fifth in the Sunshine Millions Turf at Santa Anita on January 29, eight-year-old PRESIOUS PASSION underwent throat surgery in preparation for a run in the United Nations Handicap at Monmouth on July 2.  Reportedly, he wasn't very enthusiastic about training and was sent to the farm by trainer Mary Hartmann.  I haven't found an "official" retirement note so it's possible that he could return to action, but I wouldn't be surprised if he's all done with racing.  The soon-to-be nine-year-old doesn't owe his connections a penny.

His lifetime past performances are available at the bottom of theis blog entry.

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Dan,
could you post the pp's for english channel
addc26

His past performances are available at the bottom of this blog post.

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hey dan, youre the best, can you please dust off the old record books and find me the lifetime pp's of a horse my friend paul truitt 7 myself used to own 7 train "smileasigoby" thanks again dan
$bill

They're available at the bottom of this blog post.

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No hurry Dan but I am hoping you can help to settle a bet. I saw War Heim win at 55-1 at either Hollywood Park or Santa Anita sometime between 1971 and 1974. My friend insists it was Blenheim King. Can you provide me the PP's for War Heim. Thanks.
I am looking foreard to you and Beer running down the BC in less than 2 weeks!
Bob

Bob, my past performance generator doesn't go back that far, but I do know that War Heim won the 1971 Strub Stakes at 49-1 odds at Santa Anita for trainer Dale Landers.  Perhaps that's the race that you're thinking about...

I also found a fascinating article about Blenheim King at the below link:

http://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=1356&dat=19760115&id=uLBPAAAAIBAJ&sjid=gwUEAAAAIBAJ&pg=2984,3067726

***

Congrats to Bobby for finishing first in last week's HandiGambling exercise.  This week's race is the BC Classic.  I'll post the full skinny before I hit the road to Churchill on Wednesday.

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QuietInvader.pdf655.51 KB
CandymanE.pdf656.36 KB
PresiousPassion.pdf73.54 KB
English Channel.pdf64.17 KB
smileasigoby.pdf42.91 KB
SR Vegas More than 1 year ago
knm hahaha! Ok, here they are. I was getting out the door for an HOA meeting last night. Friday: JUV FILLY Turf Hard Not To Like ML 15-1 Saturday: MARATHON Afleet Again ML 30-1 JUV Turf Excaper ML 30-1 TURF SPRINT California Flag ML 15-1 DIRT MILE The Factor ML 7-2 Irrefutuble ML 12-1 JUVENILE Hansen ML 10-1 MILE Turallure ML 8-1 CLASSIC Rattlesnake Bridge ML 30-1 Headache ML 30-1 ...Off to Golf, gorgeous day here! Will be back with a comment or two, hope to see you all at Chat tonight!
Bernard Downes More than 1 year ago
Steve T, I play the odds game myself. See my earlier post re M/L favourites. The Oddschecker website, www.oddschecker.com, is the best place to see virtually live information. Hit the "Ante Post Racing" button, then "Breeders Cup", then hit any of the individual race titles. You get comparative odds from more than a dozen UK Bookies. Regards - Bernard Downes
Annie More than 1 year ago
Blackstone, Yeah yeah, plead ignorance. How come I know what Curt is talking about? :) Annie
Annie More than 1 year ago
Curt V, Don't you know that you can't just lead a horse to water; you have to push his head down in the bucket? :) Annie
Annie More than 1 year ago
Yogi, FARRAAJ must have heard that Frankie won't be allowed to ride him. :) Annie
blackstone More than 1 year ago
Curt V While I enjoyed your light-hearted comments to me, I must admit that I am completely lost as to the subject matter. That, of course, is somewhat normal (being lost, I mean) for me. I don't think, although maybe I am wrong, that I have posted anything for a while now. Anyway, good luck this weekend with your crush horse: for the record, I think he is up against it at 1 and 1/4.
p ensign More than 1 year ago
"C saw your post on Barbara Livingston's blog i had 2 go back myself 2 see what you were asking her about * the object sticking out Finale's rear* omg,what the hell was that...i didn't notice it until i saw your inquiry since she didn't answer your question i guess some things r better left unsaid" haha, I don't know a heckload about these here horsey thangs, but I believe that's what they call a "tail..."
Yogi More than 1 year ago
Farraaj Update. For anyone else who had an idea of backing this Euro, he has acted a complete idiot two mornings in a row. Absolutely REFUSING to go through his paces.
Whackymacky More than 1 year ago
Happy Wednesday all... I have been out of touch for a little bit... We received some tough news about my Annie's first cousin at age 48. She received the news from her doctor that she has a tumor in her throat. It is Cancer and it is in stage 4. She has been a smoker for over 30 years and it looks like she will be in for the fight of her life. She has the best hospital's right here in Boston and lot's of love and support from family and friend's. She will fight this disease and beat it. The Breeders Cup I have just opened the PP's and have caught up on the blog. Lot's of great reading and many PP's to look over. My head is really spinning. I am going to play with a $10,000 bankroll this year. That will come down to $5K per day. My goal will be to play the following: ROLLING Daily Doubles // Pick 3's // Pick 4's // Pick 5's , and the Pick 6. I really think that these races are all wide open. I like Uncle Mo, but at the #12 post? Tough I still have much to go over and ticket structure will be very important!!!! Bernard, I think that your adding some great value to this blog. Good Luck!!! Annie, I was sick when I saw that you lost out on that $1,300 pick 5 because of you leaving 2 of the 6 runners in leg 1 out. Talk about a kick in the arrrssss. You will get them this week. Good Luck!!! Mike A, waiting to see what you come up with. Are you starting your 0-7 prop this Friday?? I need some big bombers in these rolling plays on the grass. Let's see you work your magic. No pressure here. You love these moments. Here we are, bottom of the nineth. The score is tied and we have a runner on second. We need that base hit to bring him in. All eyes are watching. Good Luck!!! C, I would like to see what your thoughts are on some of these grass races. I really like Gio Ponti!! What are your thoughts?? others?? Keith L, now that Bernard has taken over as the person with the most entries on the blog, I am sure that you will come out firing away with some nice plays. You have been steady over the past 6 weeks. Good Luck! MHO1 Who is going to make that big payoff for you?? Can my girl Chantal do it?? Keep on doing it!!! Remember, one race at a time. We can make some money this weekend. Good Luck!!! Steve T, you have done a masterful job over the past couple of months. You have kept an eye on all of the babies and some have paid off!!! I hope that you can put all of your hours of study together this Friday and Saturday and break the bank. Good Luck!!! And finally Dan. What a great job that you have done for another year. You have allowed us to play on your horse track. We all love this game and you allow us to speak freely. Sometimes we go back and forth at each other, but that is why this open forum works. I wish you the best over the next 4 days. Have fun and make some big money while your at it!!! Whackymacky Out!!!
meathead01 More than 1 year ago
whackymacky good day to you sir I have been looking at the friday card for about a week and I also have been waiting to see others comments as well,mike.steve.vs .curt.blackstone.ned to name a few and you as well sir. are you going to do your WP also? I do have a few at a price as do most here on the blog,lets all make some money this weekend. Ill be posting my final picks on thursday and friday. good luck all MH01
Annie More than 1 year ago
Whacky, So sorry to hear about your wife's cousin. That is really sad. My prayers go out to her. And, it was $1660, but who's counting. Worse part of it was, it was my own darn fault. Verify, verify, verify is the name of this game. No mistakes allowed. Rosario on, Tiz Flirtatious on, as simple as that. :( Annie
meathead01 More than 1 year ago
Whackymacky sorry about your aunt but do know this the cancer centers of america do great things when others dont my wife as an example. she was cured (dont like that word ) of cancer 20 years ago and today is checking out fine on her tests. remember Michael Douglas had the same thing and he is doing fine today as far as I know so it can be beaten Keep the faith my friend MH01
Kyri Freeman More than 1 year ago
Couple of changes to my Friday picks. First, after all the talk about off tracks now it looks like it won't rain, so not worrying about any of the surface handicapping I did. I thought Cambina was scratched from the F&M Turf. Turns out I had her mixed up with Cozi Rosie. We have an awful lot of good turf fillies out here in California and most seem to be chestnut with a blaze, too. I don't know if she can work out a trip or beat the top ones, but she is dead game. Funds allowing, I may put her on the ticket. My revised, non-off-track picks for the Distaff are Ultra Blend (outclassed? would not be so sure, Royal Delta, and leaning toward Plum Pretty although still just have the concern she may not be able to repeat... Saturday thoughts later today or tomorrow.
Annie More than 1 year ago
C, LOL on the goat. See, you can be funny when you want to. That will probably be the next race the BC will add. Sprint for barn goats, ages 3 and up. :) Annie
Steve T More than 1 year ago
I am sticking with longshots for every race except the Sprint, will use with some favorites in exactas. Figure I am only going to hit a couple, but that should be enough: Juvenile Sprint - Blacky the Bull (20/1) Juvenile Filly Turf – Ann of the Dance (30/1) FM Sprint - Tamarind Hall (20/1) Juvenile Filly - Miss Netta (15/1) FM Turf – CAMBINA (30/1) Distaff - Ultra Blend (8/1) Marathon – Brigantin (8/1) Juvenile Turf - Lucky Chappy (10/1) Sprint – Euroears (4/1) Turf Sprint - BROKEN DREAMS (20/1) Mile – Tapizar (20/1) Turf - None Juvenile – Speightscity (20/1) Mile – MR. COMMONS (20/1) Classic - RULER ON ICE (30/1) That’s my story and I’m sticking to it.
Annie More than 1 year ago
Steve T, Aww, how sweet of you to pick an Annie horse (Ann of the Dance). Unfortunately, she doesn't have a snowballs chance in Hell. :) Annie
Molesap More than 1 year ago
TAM, In terms of printing the tables Crist puts on his blog, you should be able to copy and paste them into a word processing program - they come out just fine. I do that, then I often edit them even further in that mode. An extra step, but they are quite useful.
james woods More than 1 year ago
great work ;keep it up please