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Draft Order, post positions, Ill. Derby Beyer
Any idea how short Hollywood Park was of its $1 million guarantee for the Pick 6 on Sunday?
Hollywood Park's pick six handle on Sunday reached $981,195. The track made up the difference (per Drf article - at end of article about Lava Man still going on
to that race he was pointing for).
There was a article in BH couple issues back re:the bloodstock agent that picked
out MJ, she another she picked out was Fleetstreet Dancer...Obviously she has an eye for talent. Think her first name was diane?
Her name is Danzel Brendemuehl. She bred Monterey Jazz, and purchased Fleetstreet Dancer at auction before selling him privately. You can read more about her here:
Two Derby issues:
One is Court Vision running with blinks for the first time? If so anyone recall a horse finishing ITM after a major equipment change in the Derby. Normally blins, plus good works would get my interest, but trying new methods in the Derby seems dangerous. While initially I'm high on Gayego and Colonel John. I'm concerned about the Colonel shipping for the first time and trying dirt too. Thoughts?
We'll find out more later tonight, but I believe that both Court Vision and Bob Black Jack will wear blinkers for the first time. As for Derby winners with equipment or medication changes, Smarty Jones won as a first-time Lasix user, and Sea Hero won in 1993 with blinkers off.
Whatever fears I had about Colonel John shipping and racing on dirt were allayed when he worked the quick bullet the other day. He seems like he's retained his good form.
Any shot we see Harlem Rocker return for the Preakness, a la Bernardini? Granted it would be another 3/16 and an added turn, but the Derby winner would have to be awfully impressive to get me off HR. Also, thinking that Samba Rooster now deserves a long, long look next time he appears on a real dirt track.
I'd love to see it, but it seems like the connections have their hearts set on the Canadian Triple Crown. Perhaps we'll see Harlem Rocker in races like the Haskell and Travers. This may be one of those years when the big three-year-old feuds get started in earnest during the summertime.
I've seen the BSF of 108 thrown around a lot here. Is that the par for the Derby?
The par for the last 16 runnings is a 109.3.
Dan - I'm a little confused by this response:
"It's very confusing, but some Off Track Wagering facilities were taking bets on Calder, Churchill, and Lone Star on Saturday."
Aren't all OTB's and tracks around the country that normally show the Churchill simulcast and accept wagering on it still doing so? I thought the dispute only cut-off online wagering?
Looking back, I didn't word my comment very well. I meant to say that some ADW sites were still taking bets on those tracks. I assume there may have been a prior contract with those specific sites, or it's just politics as usual. Take a gander at Matt Hegarty's article from Wednesday's DRF.
The latest outrage is that horseplayers in 16 states are now denied betting on Belmont's races due to various disputes. You would think the game would actually promote wagering during the one week where casual fans are interested in horses.
...I saw Big Truck's latest workout in which he looked like he was wearing some kind of green cape. I have never seen something like that before. I have seen a padded cape used when loading into the gate, but I was wondering what the purpose of the cape is during training?...
Think of it as a blanket to keep their hind quarters warm in the mornings. Tale of Ekati worked with one as well. It's very cold during morning workouts, and this is added protection from the elements.
Mathieu, Surf Cat will not come east for the Met. Headley is old school Cali guy, who doesn't ship-- I actually can't remember him ever shipping a horse, but then again I'm only 27 as of Saturday. (Steve T.?? may know).
You're right in that Headley rarely ships. The one instance I could find from Formulator over the past five years was Royally Chosen (finished fifth in the Sunshine Millions Distaff at Gulfstream in 2004)
Hi Dan--Speaking of Shug, he has a 3 year old named Cosmic who just won his NX1 condition at Aqu at 1 1/8 while being strangled down at the wire by Castellano and running on the wrong lead for much of the stretch This colt could be a monster! Watch for him in the Belmont or the Travers
Thanks for the heads-up! Cosmic has a beautiful pedigree. By El Prado out of the wonderful racemare Heavenly Prize, he is a half-brother to the multiple Grade 1 turf winner Good Reward, and the Grade 2 winner Pure Prize. He earned an 88 Beyer for his second consecutive victory on April 16 at Aqueduct.
Anybody have any info regarding homebreads in the Derby compared to horse bought at sales.
Since 1960, there have been 25 Derby winners that were previously sold at public auction. The last four winners were homebreds (Street Sense, Giacomo, Barbaro, Smarty Jones). The auction prices for Derby winners have ranged from $1,200 (Canonero II) to $4,000,000 (Fusaichi Pegasus).
dan, i noticed that you will be on tvgs' blinkers off with matt caruthers. will you be making your picks live on the air friday. always looking for the triple in this race.
Haven't seen the rundown yet, but I'm sure I'll be asked to make some picks on the show. I'll also give some Oaks Day thoughts out in tomorrow's blog with the big Derby Day analysis in Friday's edition.
Question about Post Position: you mentioned that win % for post one and two over past years have been poor, yet an earlier blogger (Calvin?) mentioned the stat that PP one and five produces the most winners. What am I missing?
Dan, tomorrow, don't forget to talk about the impact of a possibly wet track on Sat! Thanks.
The below show the POSITIONS
having the number of wins, this is from DRF:
And they acct for only 103 derbies.
The rail has won only twice (Ferdinand, Chateaugay) since 1963. Clyde Van Dusen won from post 20 in 1929. Since 1980, fifteen Derby winners broke from post 10 and out (seven of those from fifteen and out). The stats listed by larryk are from 1900-2007.
The track may be a bit speed-favoring if it rains so check out the early races on Friday or Saturday to see if there are biases.
does anyone know if nownownow is going to return to the states for racing???
rail is golden aka brandon barshinger
He just may. According to Alan Shuback in Thursday's DRF, Nownownow will miss his scheduled start in Saturday's 2000 Guineas.
Andy Beyer’s quote from his Derby Chat seems strange to me:
“The Illinois Derby caused us trouble. The race came up unrealistically fast--it would have been over 110 if we'd taken the number at face value. But they run very few 1 1/8 mile races at Hawthorne, and when they do they are sometimes freaky. Before the Illinois Derby we have some suspicion that they juice(d) up the track. When War Emblem won the Ill. Derby in a giant figure, our Illinois figure man, Dennis Harp, decided to accept it. War Emblem had the top figure going into the Kentucky Derby and verified it. But we couldn't see Recapturetheglory and the rest of them all running in the stratosphere, so we lowered the number. I think we are right. If Recapturetheglory wins Saturday, I'll be ill”.
He is admitting to lowering the speed-figure, and while I don’t care what he does with his speed-figures, I oftentimes don’t accept them. That said, I am betting that he is wrong here. What do you think?
As a Recapturetheglory fan, I'm actually happy that the number was lowered. If he shows up in the Derby with a 110 sprinkled on his form, he'll get more money, and I want as big a price as possible. Truth be told, though, it would be a giant leap of faith to accept the original number at face value. Golden Spikes received a 95 Beyer (his top by five points) in the Illinois Derby after merely chasing throughout. Z Humor (also in chase move), received a 94, and that fig was ten points higher than any of his other two races this year. I have to agree with Mr. Beyer that the projected number is probably more reasonable than the original.
I'm highly suspected of Big Brown because of lack of experience and a long rest between the KD Derby and the Florid Derby. However, what would you make of a horse who ran 1:10 and still finished last furlong in 13 sec in a 9F race. To me, it's a sign of a quality speed horse.
Could he carry his speed to another furlong?
I don't see why he can't carry his speed another furlong. Big Brown has thus far shown to be a truly special animal. He has combined brilliant speed with stamina, and is the most exciting horse in the race. I think he's going to run a big one, and will not let him beat me. In my opinion, he's a must use in multi-race wagers like Pick Threes, and exotic bets like exactas, trifectas, and superfectas.
Okay, tomorrow I'll give you my Oaks Day opinions, and would love to address some more of your comments.
A friend of mine went to the Derby and was supposed to place an exacta box bet on Big Brown, Eight Belle, and Pyro for me. I don't have her cell phone, so I can't check IF or WHAT I won. Can someone help me with what the payout would have been?
Chicago Gerry: Stop working on it. Here's the hot trend. Since Secretariat in 1973 12 Derby winners (34 percent) have one thing in common. Their names begin with an S. That makes Smooth Air a play at 2-1 or more.
Dan, Thanks for the link on DanzelB. It was an interesting read in BH, I'll follow up with the link
Jason G I'll follow Katieattherail and ask.....I haven't seen entries for Harmony Found, yet..is she still running? But don't you have another filly of interest? Informed Decision..in the La Troinne Stakes on KD day, race #6.. I made a note, am I wrong? SR Vegas
SteveT, Interesting comments on the horses in the rain. I have the book, might have to give it another try. JohnnyZ, Heads up on the Cigar halter, 2 halters at the Louisville TBred Club, brought 900 and 1000. They were SS and RTR.. That should help you. BigEasyChok and Alan, I guess you guys know that 1K julip is in a gold glass with water from the artic and fresh tea leaves from somewhere else exotic. Claibob, Didn't get to meet Tim Ford. Sorry. I had a blast at the track, got to meet so many people today and the backside was full of people. Met Frankie Lyons, Woody Weidenhoffer from Steeler fame(actually has a stable)Staci Hancock, Awesome Chic owners and Smooth Air girls. Lotta of talk of 8belles.. SHe does belong, shes earned it. Remember the yr Barbaro won, he was #8, along with Bernadini #8 and Jazil #8. You don't think its ...? Too Cool.
This afternoon, Coast Guard quietly finished a no-excuse 4th in a NL1X allowance at Hollywood. I think this says two things: that Colonel John's far turn trouble in the SA Derby was more significant than in it looked, and Bob Black Jack is now a throwout. Coast Guard ran essentially the same race as BBJ in the SA Derby, both pressing the pace and hanging on gamely to finish in the money behind the troubled CJ. But I've always felt that when a horse wins despite trouble, the rest of the field he or she beat is a negative play next time out. So far Coast Guard and a couple others who finished up the track in the SA Derby have come back to not only lose but run poorly. More and more I'm thinking CJ was at least 5 lengths best last month, and maybe more.
We're looking at 100% chance of light rain on Friday night and a 60-70% chance on Saturday AM and afternoon. If it turns out heavier than expected, the horses for me will have to take a back seat to the Chicago Gerry Dreamcast. Any stocks on the radar, Gerry?
Van Savant, nice work on RCTG, I like him as well, athough, not my top tier. I believe RCTG has good shot at hanging in there for a piece underneath. I also believe if RCTG should get so lucky as too have a lone lead (others thinking, no worries, he won't last) he has a chance at the score. As of now, I have him in my second tier and will use underneath( will play a win save bet on him for a few bucks, just in case).
RE: Big Brown this morning First of all, I'm not going to bet on BB to win for a whole bunch of reasons... BUT... after getting a good look at pretty much all of the Derby starters this morning, I have to say that Big Brown was visually a standout! It's the first that I've seen him in person since the Florida Derby and wow, does this guy really look the part of a monster!! Thank goodness for the far outside post as it helps me in getting comfortable with the play against him... Regarding the others, I have nothing uniquely insightful or negative to report as they all put in regular gallops... I thought that Colonel John looked solid and professional... and, I can confirm that Eight Belles is a physically big (not just tall), good looking filly...
Claire, I'm with you about the rail posts. Can you believe the dumb twit who looked like she was in the twilight zone had the choice of an inside post but took the far outside for Dennis of Cork? Obviously, she didn't watch the horse work (tight against the rail) and doesn't know the jockey is Calvin Bo-RAIL. The connections of Dennis of Cork are truly determined to screw their horse over as best they can. JohnnyZ, Thanks for recognizing all my hard work! Still plugging away...I guess I should have started this sooner, but honestly didn't think of it.