04/30/2008 2:05PM

Draft Order, post positions, Ill. Derby Beyer

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Any idea how short Hollywood Park was of its $1 million guarantee for the Pick 6 on Sunday?
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Hollywood Park's pick six handle on Sunday reached $981,195. The track made up the difference (per Drf article - at end of article about Lava Man still going on
to that race he was pointing for).
Annie


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SteveT,
There was a article in BH couple issues back re:the bloodstock agent that picked
out MJ, she another she picked out was Fleetstreet Dancer...Obviously she has an eye for talent.  Think her first name was diane?
larryk


Her name is Danzel Brendemuehl.  She bred Monterey Jazz, and purchased Fleetstreet Dancer at auction before selling him privately.  You can read more about her here:

http://www.danzelb.com/index.shtml


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Two Derby issues:
One is Court Vision running with blinks for the first time? If so anyone recall a horse finishing ITM after a major equipment change in the Derby. Normally blins, plus good works would get my interest, but trying new methods in the Derby seems dangerous.  While initially I'm high on Gayego and Colonel John. I'm concerned about the Colonel shipping for the first time and trying dirt too. Thoughts?


We'll find out more later tonight, but I believe that both Court Vision and Bob Black Jack will wear blinkers for the first time.  As for Derby winners with equipment or medication changes, Smarty Jones won as a first-time Lasix user, and  Sea Hero won in 1993 with blinkers off. 
Whatever fears I had about Colonel John shipping and racing on dirt were allayed when he worked the quick bullet the other day.  He seems like he's retained his good form. 

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Any shot we see Harlem Rocker return for the Preakness, a la Bernardini?  Granted it would be another 3/16 and an added turn, but the Derby winner would have to be awfully impressive to get me off HR.  Also, thinking that Samba Rooster now deserves a long, long look next time he appears on a real dirt track.
Aaron


I'd love to see it, but it seems like the connections have their hearts set on the Canadian Triple Crown.  Perhaps we'll see Harlem Rocker in races like the Haskell and Travers.  This may be one of those years when the big three-year-old feuds get started in earnest during the summertime.

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All,
I've seen the BSF of 108 thrown around a lot here.  Is that the par for the Derby? 
DannyB


The par for the last 16 runnings is a 109.3.

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Dan - I'm a little confused by this response:
"It's very confusing, but some Off Track Wagering facilities were taking bets on Calder, Churchill, and Lone Star on Saturday."
Aren't all OTB's and tracks around the country that normally show the Churchill simulcast and accept wagering on it still doing so?  I thought the dispute only cut-off online wagering?
Ilatan


Looking back, I didn't word my comment very well.  I meant to say that some ADW sites were still taking bets on those tracks.  I assume there may have been a prior contract with those specific sites, or it's just politics as usual.  Take a gander at Matt Hegarty's article from Wednesday's DRF.

http://www.drf.com/drfNewsArticle.do?NID=94076&subs=0&arc=1


The latest outrage is that horseplayers in 16 states are now denied betting on Belmont's races due to various disputes.  You would think the game would actually promote wagering during the one week where casual fans are interested in horses.

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...I saw Big Truck's latest workout in which he looked like he was wearing some kind of green cape. I have never seen something like that before. I have seen a padded cape used when loading into the gate, but I was wondering what the purpose of the cape is during training?...
chicago gerry


Think of it as a blanket to keep their hind quarters warm in the mornings.  Tale of Ekati worked with one as well.  It's very cold during morning workouts, and this is added protection from the elements.

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Mathieu, Surf Cat will not come east for the Met. Headley is old school Cali guy, who doesn't ship-- I actually can't remember him ever shipping a horse, but then again I'm only 27 as of Saturday. (Steve T.?? may know).
Steve V


You're right in that Headley rarely ships.  The one instance I could find from Formulator over the past five years was Royally Chosen (finished fifth in the Sunshine Millions Distaff at Gulfstream in 2004)

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Hi Dan--Speaking of Shug, he has a 3 year old named Cosmic who just won his NX1 condition at Aqu at 1 1/8 while being strangled down at the wire by Castellano and running on the wrong lead for much of the stretch This colt could be a monster! Watch for him in the Belmont or the Travers 
Fred G


Thanks for the heads-up!  Cosmic has a beautiful pedigree.  By El Prado out of the wonderful racemare Heavenly Prize, he is a half-brother to the multiple Grade 1 turf winner Good Reward, and the Grade 2 winner Pure Prize.  He earned an 88 Beyer for his second consecutive victory on April 16 at Aqueduct.

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Anybody have any info regarding homebreads in the Derby compared to horse bought at sales.
Primo


Since 1960, there have been 25 Derby winners that were previously sold at public auction.  The last four winners were homebreds (Street Sense, Giacomo, Barbaro, Smarty Jones).  The auction prices for Derby winners  have ranged from $1,200 (Canonero II) to $4,000,000 (Fusaichi Pegasus). 

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dan, i noticed that you will be on tvgs' blinkers off with matt caruthers. will you be making your picks live on the air friday. always looking for the triple in this race.
thanks
blacktieaffair


Haven't seen the rundown yet, but I'm sure I'll be asked to make some picks on the show. I'll also give some Oaks Day thoughts out in tomorrow's blog with the big Derby Day analysis in Friday's edition.

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Greetings, all
Larryk,
Question about Post Position: you mentioned that win % for post one and two over past years have been poor, yet an earlier blogger (Calvin?) mentioned the stat that PP one and five produces the most winners.  What am I missing?
Dan, tomorrow, don't forget to talk about the impact of a possibly wet track on Sat! Thanks.

Katieattherail

Katieattherail,
The below show the POSITIONS
having the number of wins, this is from DRF:
1 12
2 9
3 8
4 10
5 12
6 6
7 7
8 9
9 4
10 10
11 3
12 3
13 4
14 2
15 3
16 3
17 0
18 1
19 0
20 2
And they acct for only 103 derbies. 
larryk


The rail has won only twice (Ferdinand, Chateaugay) since 1963.  Clyde Van Dusen won from post 20 in 1929.  Since 1980, fifteen Derby winners broke from post 10 and out (seven of those from fifteen and out).  The stats listed by larryk are from 1900-2007.

The track may be a bit speed-favoring if it rains so check out the early races on Friday or Saturday to see if there are biases. 

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does anyone know if nownownow is going to return to the states for racing???
rail is golden aka brandon barshinger


He just may.  According to Alan Shuback in Thursday's DRF, Nownownow will miss his scheduled start in Saturday's 2000 Guineas.

http://www.drf.com/drfNewsArticle.do?NID=94112&subs=0&arc=1


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Dan;
Andy Beyer’s quote from his Derby Chat seems strange to me:
“The Illinois Derby caused us trouble. The race came up unrealistically fast--it would have been over 110 if we'd taken the number at face value. But they run very few 1 1/8 mile races at Hawthorne, and when they do they are sometimes freaky. Before the Illinois Derby we have some suspicion that they juice(d) up the track. When War Emblem won the Ill. Derby in a giant figure, our Illinois figure man, Dennis Harp, decided to accept it. War Emblem had the top figure going into the Kentucky Derby and verified it. But we couldn't see Recapturetheglory and the rest of them all running in the stratosphere, so we lowered the number. I think we are right. If Recapturetheglory wins Saturday, I'll be ill”.
He is admitting to lowering the speed-figure, and while I don’t care what he does with his speed-figures, I oftentimes don’t accept them.  That said, I am betting that he is wrong here.  What do you think?
Van Savant


As a Recapturetheglory fan, I'm actually happy that the number was lowered.  If he shows up in the Derby with a 110 sprinkled on his form, he'll get more money, and I want as big a price as possible.  Truth be told, though, it would be a giant leap of faith to accept the original number at face value.  Golden Spikes received a 95 Beyer (his top by five points) in the Illinois Derby after merely chasing throughout.  Z Humor (also in chase move), received a 94, and that fig was ten points higher than any of his other two races this year.  I have to agree with Mr. Beyer that the projected number is probably more reasonable than the original.

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Dan,
I'm highly suspected of Big Brown because of lack of experience and a long rest between the KD Derby and the Florid Derby. However, what would you make of a horse who ran 1:10 and still finished last furlong in 13 sec in a 9F race. To me, it's a sign of a quality speed horse.
Could he carry his speed to another furlong?

Arazi

I don't see why he can't carry his speed another furlong.   Big Brown has thus far shown to be a truly special animal.  He has combined brilliant speed with stamina, and is the most exciting horse in the race.  I think he's going to run a big one, and will not let him beat me.  In my opinion, he's a must use in multi-race wagers like Pick Threes, and exotic bets like exactas, trifectas, and superfectas.

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Okay, tomorrow I'll give you my Oaks Day opinions, and would love to address some more of your comments.

Take care,

Dan