11/06/2008 2:31PM

Double-Carry Thursday

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Off to a decent if chalky start in the $152k Aqueduct double-carry, with a first-leg single and 6-1 A getting me through the first third of the sequence:

My position's slightly better than it looks because I put all three B's in the last three legs on the same ticket, so I'm good with either a 4A, 3A/1B, 3A/1C, 2A/2B or a 1A/3B the rest of the way.

I thought the trickiest race was the one with the smallest field, the five-horse featured 8th. It was tempting to single Songster, who would have been 2-5 against these in his prime, but he hasn't been out in a year and a half after a brief and failed stud career. Grand Champion is equally questionable, returning from a long layoff last time out with a stinker at 3-5 in the Maryland Million Sprint.

The upcoming 6th is the only race that was left on the grass and I just couldn't make a case for anyone but the three top-fig favorites, but the rain-softened course adds a wild card to the mix.


3:55 pm: Things broke about as well as I could have asked for to get me alive to 5 of the 7 runners in the finale. Here come the will-pays (my five in bold):

1-$13,395

2-carryover

3-$13,751

5-$31,409

6-$376,908

7-$376,908

9-$34,264

Who's the #7 I'm alive to for $376K? It's Jaimie's Gem, 0-for-20 and off since June but...his career-best fig did come on a muddy track and if Afleet Aya (#1) and Dove Nest (#5) duel each other into defeat and the race falls apart....

Guess I have to save with #6 Cat Radio (if #2 wins, there's a $376k carry and five consos at around $800 each is consolation enough,) but Cat Radio's only 6-1 at the moment.


4:15 pm: There was a fraction of a second when Jaimie's Gem launched a five-wide bid at the four leaders and I allowed myself to dream of $376k....but she was done a second later and the race chalked out. Afleet Aya took back today and it worked out well for her as she ran down Firsttodance, with Dove Nest third and Marian B fourth. I'll take the $13k....no wait, the payout somehow went down about $1500 to $12,395, I guess because Afleet Aya was the narrow post-time favorite and a few tickets scratched into her. Still, a good day at the office.

First person to point out I could have hit it for $72 by just playing the all-A ticket, instead of spending another $1620 on backups, is a rotten egg.


PS--I just flipped over to TVG, where they're running a somewhat misleading notice on the screen under a post parade from Hollywood: "Due to a decision by the TOC [Thoroughbred Owners of California], you will not be able to wager from home on this race if you live outside of California."

Not exactly. I live in New York and I can wager on the Hollywood races from home through my NYRA Rewards account. It's TVG and other non-racetrack ADW's that you can't use.

mike More than 1 year ago
Steve, Nice picking as usual.Can you please how this was 10 tickets, can't figure it out. Thanks, Mike
gocashbaby More than 1 year ago
How's this for a score: Today I bet $16 into the Hawthorne Place Pick 9. Every race from 1-8 had one of the first 2 finishers a chalk. I was live to the 3 and 8 in the ninth. The 3 won at 7-1 followed by a 23-1 bomb, and I took the $3720 pool! Amazing if you consider the results. See for yourself.
Tunick More than 1 year ago
The are two parts to handicapping. Picking winners and wagering. You are the best at both. You know how Michael Jordan was the best at offense and defense? That is how good you are at picking and wagering. You had 5 horses alive in the last leg. Awesome. You are the best. And you won for the meet at Saratoga. You are on the top of you game. I wish I had your picks in advance.
p ensign More than 1 year ago
I posted this over on Dan's blog but figured I throw it on here as well, considering I've probably got a better chance of getting the message at the bottom through. congrats to whoever hit the p-6 last night at HP: 3 favorites, 1 second choice, and 2 fifth choices got someone the entire $650k+ pool! parlay was about $35k but the combination of the two-day carryover and the large fields made this just about the score of the year as far as I can tell. the important message: if anyone knows who came up with, and implemented, the brilliant hi-5 carryover scheme that has it going from track to track (churchill to calder to churchill) during the course of one day - please let them know that it is an IDIOTIC idea! it figures, as soon as they come up with a great idea, they go and throw it in the toilet.... ps. congrats on the roll Steve, hopefully you hit last night as well!
Dick W More than 1 year ago
Steve What more can I say...you are definitely on a roll !!! minj Yes, I also noticed that the winner of the Melbourne Cup (Viewed) was running on just 3 days rest. He had just finished last in a 1 1/4 mile race and the Melbourne Cup is 2 miles (3200 meters actually) !!! Also to be noted was the 81 year old trainer (Bart Cummings) who won hs 12th Melbourne Cup. Viewed won by a nose at about 45 to 1 in front of 105,000 people. Now that's racing !!!
bochalls More than 1 year ago
Flipper, you found two vouchers/tickets in a machine and you kept them!? Shame shame...it's that karma that got ya on BC day...yeah, I saw the Melbourne Cup, and how does a guy who's won 11 of these things go off at 395-1 (or whatever) in the United States? Didn't know he had won that many until his horse crossed the finish line, ugh...again, did anyone see the Autumn Tenno Sho from Tokyo and think the finish was suspiciuos, to say the least?...nice job on the P6 Steve, I am struggling big time at AQU... waiting for FG to open.
Juan CArlos More than 1 year ago
Hi STeve, nice hit, wondering where can I find the explantion of the matrix. Thanks Viva Mexico
AndyScoggin More than 1 year ago
jim-- Steve's book EXOTIC BETTING has his pick methodology.
raps07 More than 1 year ago
Great hit. When you have time, can you explain your betting grid for a win4 play. I remember reading it once, but should have written it down
Mert in Ohio More than 1 year ago
Notwithstanding TVG's misleading trash, what is with the horsemen in CA, FL and KY? I bet only through ADW sites like Twinspires, YouBet, Xpressbet and sometimes, TVG. (NYRA is no longer available to me, although I had an NY OTB phone account back in 1972!) Do these horsemen dislike handle? Crazy!