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Double Carry Day
3:00 pm: Not quite the start I'd hoped for in New York's first pick-six double-carryover since July: Show Me The Cash came up the rail late to run down my two A's as the $9.80 third choice and send me to the B list right away:
Translation: All the C's are dead and I need either 5 A's, or 4 A's and 1 B, the rest of the way.
Like the win-betting public, I simply thought that Show Me the Cash was third best to Saratoga Steve and Coronation when the three of them ran 2-3-4, just 1 1/2 lengths apart, in the 3rd at Saratoga Aug. 28. Coronation Day, who made his debut in that race, seemed to have the most room to improve, and Saratoga Steve picked up an entrymate in Paul's Ace, a $350k 2yo-in-training purchase. Paul's Ace made the lead, looked strong turning for home as Coronation Day made a run at him, but the two of them weakened and Show Me the Cash came right up inside of Paul's Ace to run him down.
Oh well. Now one of my two singles must win, either Can She Dance, currently 7-2 in the 5MTP 5th, or Omiyome in the 8th.
3:15 pm: Not my day, Can She Dance went wide while Crazy Cat Ladt slipped through inside, but Can She Dance had every chance to run down Crazy Cat Lady ($10.00) and just couldn't, falling a half-length short. A sequence that starts with a $9.80 and a $10 winner is the kind that people who didn't play it will look at and say, "Gee, any idiot could have had those two," and marvel when it pays a lot. Well, this idiot is dead.
If you're alive, good luck the rest of the way. If not, join me in rooting for a triple carry.
3:55 pm:When's the last time a Todd Pletcher first-time starter paid $37.00 to win? According to Formulator, it hasn't happened in the last five years until today, when Vindgary, a 3-year-old half-brother to Geri, wired the field in the 6th with a mile in 1:35.99. In fact, of Pletcher's 134(!) winning firsters since 9/11/03, only two went off at 10-1 or higher: My Golden Song at 11-1 at Belmont 10/28/05 and Mercurius at Gulfstream 1/4/06.
Vindgari completed a $1,001 pick-3 for the first half of the pick-6.
5:00 pm: Triple carryover! Let's Fly Away at $43.80 just wiped out the world in the 8th at Belmont, beating favored Omiyome by a neck. Let's Fly Away had races last year that would have made her one of the favorites in here, but was coming off three dismal 2008 performances that made her the 6th choice in a field of 8.
The smallest pick-4 is $36k,[update: Congrats to commenter Jeff Moss, I think!] and four of the runners in the finale would pay 3/4. Friday's pick-6 pool will start with $608,657 on account, and we'll be playing for well over a million.
Here's the lineup for tomorrow:
Race 4: 2FNY MdSpWt -- 6f-IT -- Field of 11; 2 entries; 8 firsters
Race 5: 3+ Clm35000N3L -- 8.5f-WT -- field of 10+3 AE's
Race 6: 3+ Clm16000N1Y -- 6f -- Field of 11 inc. entry
Race 7: 3+ StAlw c50+N1x -- 6f-IT -- field of 10 inc. entry
Race 8: 3+F A1x -- 8.5f-WT -- field of 10
Race 9: 3+ MdClm20000 -- 1m -- field of 11, no firsters
Steve, I would be curious to see how you are attacking this p6 today. Here's my tickets: (1) $192.00 1/6,7/3,8/1,2,3/2,9/2,7,8,9 (2) $1,536.00 1,2,5,6/1,6,7,10/1,9/1,2/2,4,9,10/7,8,9 (3) $288.00 2,5,6/7,10/3,8/1,2,3/4,10/2,9 OK - Let's one of us hit this thing today or else see it roll over again tomorrow. Highly unlikely, but you never know. Good luck to everyone. Sedonia
"Let's Fly Away... was coming off three dismal 2008 performances" Wasn't she rather useable off the cutback? Out of a Housebuster mare, she had twice gone beyond 6 furlongs previously, and twice faded badly in the last furlong. Her last race wasn't any sort of regression--once you take out the 7th furlong. Yeah, she still needed to improve but her form (on paper) was muddied by the distance last out, no? I actually think that angle can be overplayed but it's a pretty good example of it working here...
Jeff Moss: You are the KING! Well at least for yesterday! You could have told me that Oniyome, Mighty Eros & Blue Devil Bel wouldn't win (I didn't like Casey's Tribe) & I still don't come up with Let's Fly Away. Then to make Sweet Bama Breeze a bride from perpetual bridesmaid? OUTSTANDING! Tell me your thoughts on LFA? Good hit!! You've got some ammunition for today!!!!
Nice pick three at Arlington on Thursday in races 7-9. The winners 9-1, 3-1 and 5-1 returned $1,147
Thanks rawlawltd. Regarding Let's Fly Away, here is how I got her. I started off by taking a stand against Mighty Eros. I just can't take a short price on any horse off that long a layoff so I threw her out completely. Unlike you, I actually really liked Casey's Tribe and thought with a clean trip she was the best horse in the race. I used 3 others as Bs. I just figured if LFA could run back to those races in Oct and Nov of 2007, she fit with this group. And she did run a half last time out. In the last I was down to the 2 logical horses to key. I HATE horses with seconditis as much as anyone, but with the early scratch of Linda's Kisses, I felt Rice's horse would get an easy lead and had a BIG tactical advantage against Better Than Swiss. I am not a Pick-6 player and if I wasn't tempted to get involved today, I probably never will (combination of carryover and bankroll was enticing, but I showed some discretion). My wheelhouse is $250-300 Pick-4 investments and I don't feel I can compete with the deeper pocket Pick-6 bettors. Finally, I want to thank Steve Crist for his book "Exotic Betting" and just as importantly this blog. I have always been a player who liked to key horses in multi-race wagers, but the "A,B,C" approach has really helped me even more in the last year. I think I am still fine tuning those type of wagers and to be able to see how Steve makes his bets on this page really is as instructive as the text from the book. I truly believe that if it wasn't for the "A,B,C" approach, I would never have hit that Pick-4 yesterday.
Steve: The reminder yesterday that the stewards got lost on their way to examining an assistant starter's hold on a horse points to an almost-always ignored area of great mischief on the track. Lost a three-hundred dollar exacta a coupla years ago at Colonial when I bet a shot over the favored entry, and it finished the reverse of that, in no small measure 'cause that crewman held onto the shot a full second and more after the gate opened. What made it worse was the unwillingness of anyone at that track or at the state oversight outfit to respond to electronic and surface mail asking for an explanation of my loss. Just another reason I'm glad to be on medical leave:-). Good luck, tomorrow!
Steve, Now that there's a triple carryover, I simply must ask this question -- all else being equal, do you have a guideline or rough formula for the amount of money you're willing to invest in a Pick Six carryover based on its size? In "Exotic Betting," you mentioned a range that you'd think about spending, but I was wondering if you're a little more scientific about it than that. If, for example, I had spent $500 on a carryover of $250,000 (which wasn't hit) and decided I would play the next day when the total pool would be at least $750,000, I'd certainly want to put in more than $500, but how much more, I have no idea. Does your answer to that question depend solely on how tough you believe the sequence of races is?
Vindgari was playable if you remembered that Geri was just as dangerous on dirt as he was on turf. He did get beat by Siphon in the G1 out west but he was a game dirt campaigner...won the Citation on turf...
Congrats Jeff on the great picking. I saw the breeding of that horse and said to myself "the horse can't be ready if he's that much of a longshot." Goes to show overthinking the board is a bad, bad, angle. By the way, am I the only one that misses Flipper's "comments." Did he announce his retirement? Come back F.D. and give us some Woodbine super's, would ya? Best to everyone going for the big one tomorrow.
Thanks Steve for the congratulations as I did hit the Pick-4. In the end, bumping that half brother of Geri and AP Arrow from an A to a B because of the lack of tote action didn't cost me. (Thanks to the Emporess, of course, in the last.) Horse racing is a funny game. Yesterday I was THRILLED when Pletcher's first time starter with the same mare as Vindgari (by Theatrical) didn't come out of the gate in the last. I didn't play that one because of the switch to the main track (in the Pick-4) and like you, ending up hitting the Pick 4 with Pyro's three-quarter brother.