04/27/2017 4:41PM

Dolphus on track for Jerkens

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From the moment he was conceived, hopes were sky-high for DOLPHUS.
 
As a half-brother to Rachel Alexandra, one of the best and most-popular fillies to have raced over the past 20 years, Dolphus was expected to be a good runner, but inconsistency kept him stuck in first gear. Just when it seemed that Dolphus had turned the corner and into a proper stakes horse (see 101 Beyer victory in his final start of 2016), he would then run an absolute stinker (see his subsequent start when last of nine and beaten 25 lengths in the Grade 3 Hal's Hope Stakes). 
 
Jimmy Jerkens took over Dolphus' career after the Hal's Hope and the colt has looked good in both starts for his new outfit. Last week, he handled a decent field of optional claimers at Aqueduct and received a career-best 105 Beyer Speed Figure. Perhaps Dolphus is now ready to earn some valuable blacktype. 
 
Dolphus roared right to the front under Rajiv Maragh and set comfortable fractions of 23.57 and 46.46 while pressured lightly by TURCO BRAVO. He opened up comfortably on the field on the turn and kept to his task to score by 1 3/4 lengths in 1:35.27 for the mile.
 
While Dolphus looked good, it must be noted that his main competition all had ready-made excuses before the starter even sprang the latch. ECONOMIC MODEL and SHAGAF were both returning off long layoffs while Turco Bravo is more effective at much-longer distances. Sprinkle in Dolphus' tactical edge up front and the race might not be as good as it looks on paper.
 
Still, the belief is that Jerkens has found what Dolphus wants to do. He isn't going to match Rachel Alexandra's talent and he probably isn't as capable at longer routes. Instead, Dolphus looks like a nice one-turn sprinter/miler in the making. With Jerkens calling the shots, he will probably be placed in races where he can succeed before tackling the leading lights of the division. With that in mind, Dolphus should be considered as a near-term playback candidate in a listed event or lower-level graded stakes race.
 
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Here are the top 25 WINNING Beyer Speed Figures from 4/19/17 - 4/25/17:
 
1. DOLPHUS - 105 - OC 100k/C -N - 1 Mile - 23Apr17-3AQU
2. COLLECTED - 104 - Californian Stakes (G2) - 1 1/8 Miles - 22Apr17-8SA 
3. EL DEAL - 101 - Hcp 35000 - 4 1/2 Furlongs - 22Apr17-3CT 
3. SHAFT OF LIGHT - 101 - Russell Road Stakes - 7 Furlongs - 22Apr17-2CT 
5. ITSINTHEPOST (FR) - 100 - Elkhorn Stakes (G2) - 1 1/2 Miles (Turf) - 22Apr17-9KEE
6. STORMY LIBERAL - 99 - Siren Lure Stakes - About 6 1/2 Furlongs (Turf) - 23Apr17-8SA 
7. SUPERMASON - 98 - Premiere Stakes - 6 1/2 Furlongs - 20Apr17-1LS 
8. ASCEND - 96 - Henry Clark Stakes - 1 Mile (Turf) - 22Apr17-10LRL
8. IMPERATIVE - 96 - Charles Town Classic (G2) - 1 1/8 Miles - 22Apr17-11CT 
8. J B QUICK - 96 - OC 12k/N1X -N - 6 Furlongs - 22Apr17-2GP 
8. LEADING SCORE - 96 - Md Sp Wt 57k - 6 Furlongs - 22Apr17-10SA 
12. PRIME ENGINE - 95 - OC 50k/C -N - 5 1/2 Furlongs - 22Apr17-6EMD
12. THE MAN - 95 - Alw 42250N2R - 6 1/2 Furlongs - 23Apr17-3PRX
14. LOOSE ON THE TOWN - 94 - Alw 62680N2X - 5 1/2 Furlongs (Turf) - 23Apr17-8KEE
14. PATENTAR (FR) - 94 - OC 75k/C -N - 1 1/8 Miles (Turf) - 23Apr17-1SA 
14. UNDRAFTED - 94 - Alw 72575C - 5 1/2 Furlongs (Turf) - 21Apr17-3KEE
17. GOLD FOR THE KING - 93 - New York Stallion Stakes - 6 1/2 Furlongs - 23Apr17-8AQU
17. MIA TORRI - 93 - Sugar Maple Stakes - 7 Furlongs - 22Apr17-10CT 
19. INORDINATE - 92 - San Juan Capistrano Stakes (G3) - 1 3/4 Miles (Turf) - 22Apr17-4SA 
19. RECOUNT - 92 - Robert S. Molaro Handicap - 6 1/2 Furlongs - 22Apr17-6HAW
21. BLUEGRASS FLAG - 91 - New York Stallion Stakes - 6 1/2 Furlongs - 22Apr17-8AQU
21. SECURITY RISK - 91 - Alw 69860N3X - 1 1/16 Miles - 19Apr17-7KEE
23. DANILOVNA (IRE) - 90 - Dahlia Stakes - 1 Mile (Turf) - 22Apr17-8LRL
23. REDNECK HUMOR - 90 - Inaugural Handicap - 6 1/2 Furlongs - 22Apr17-8SRP
25. BOUND FOR NOWHERE - 89 - Alw 68040N1X - 5 1/2 Furlongs (Turf) - 20Apr17-5KEE
25. DISTINCTIV PASSION - 89 - Swift Thoroughbreds Inaugural Stakes - 6 1/2 Furlongs - 23Apr17-7HST
25. ENCRYPTION - 89 - OC 62k/C -N - 1 Mile - 23Apr17-9GP 
25. PARTY BOAT - 89 - Memories of Silver Stakes - 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - 23Apr17-4AQU
25. SHELBYSMILE - 89 - Alw 73283C - 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - 22Apr17-5KEE
25. SOUTHERN RING - 89 - Whimsical Stakes (G3-C) - 6 Furlongs - 23Apr17-7WO
25. WYETH - 89 - OC 80k/N3X -N - 6 Furlongs - 22Apr17-3KEE
 
*The lifetime past performances for Dolphus are available at the bottom of this blog post.
 
***
 
Congrats to GBL for winning the most recent HandiGambling challenge.
 
Rick M and SR VEGAS' HG scoreboard spreadsheet is available at the bottom of this blog post. 
 
Let's go with Saturday's Powder Break Stakes at Gulfstream Park for this week's exercise.
 
PAST PERFORMANCES ARE AVAILABLE AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS BLOG POST.
 
 
SR Vegas and Rick M. have graciously decided to update all of the HG rules in order to make them an easier read for everyone...
 
HANDIGAMBLING version 2016:
 
Let's remember WHY we began the HandiGambling races in the first place.
The goal was to share ideas on why we like these horses and why we're betting them the way we are. We are not asking for a novel but SPARE A SENTENCE OR TWO outlining your HANDICAPPING ANGLES and/or THOUGHT PROCESSES about WAGERING.
 
1. Start your post with HG or HANDIGAMBLING to find your entry in a thread.
2. You have a mythical $100 to wager in whatever format you choose that is available for that HG race. Anyone going over the $100 limit will be DISQUALIFIED.
3. Post your WAGER and ANALYSIS to the blog prior to the start of the designated race. SIGN OFF WITH YOUR NAME/OR MONIKER AT THE END OF YOUR POST. Remember that posts may start as 'anonymous' or an 'alternate name'. You MUST SIGN YOURSELF AT THE END (even if it is the same) This enables the scorekeeper to identify who you are.
4. (1) ONE ENTRY per person for the Handigambling contest. If you have multiple email addresses, use just ONE for contest purposes. Multiple entries will be cause for disqualification.
5. Separate your analysis from the wager and use the PROGRAM # in your wager. Just like you would do in a real wager. No horse names.
6. If any of the rules listed above aren't met, the wager is subject to review which can lead to disqualification of your entry.
 
In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference. Dan reserves the right to approve or deny any entries.
The winner will receive a "60-Card Quarterly Formulator Past Performance Plan"
 
As an example :
 
HG 2016
The speed in this race are #1 Alpha, #2 Beta, and #8 Ocho. I like the works for layoff horse #5 Cinco who can sit off the pace. Lots of speed in here, so this could set up for a closer like  #6 Six Flags and I like the trainer's stats in these conditions. I’ll put the closer over the speed.
 
HG wager:
$10 EX   6 /   1,2,5, 8  = $40
$5 TRI   6 /   1,2,5,8  /  1,2,5,8  =  $60
Total $100
Thanks Dan!
Harpo
 
A MORE DETAILED ANALYSIS  IS  ALWAYS  APPRECIATED !
REMEMBER, IF YOU ARE DECLARED THE WINNER OF THE HANDIGAMBLING EXERCISE; PLEASE CONTACT FORMBLOG@DRF.COM WITH YOUR DRF LOGIN AND PASSWORD IN ORDER TO ACCESS YOUR PRIZE PACKAGE.
 
ALSO, IF THE WINNER WOULD LIKE TO SELECT THE FOLLOWING WEEK'S RACE, PLEASE CONTACT FORMBLOG@DRF.COM NO LATER THAN THE FOLLOWING WEDNESDAY MORNING (A SATURDAY RACE IS MOST IDEAL)
AttachmentSize
DOLPHUS.pdf687.9 KB
Copy of HG 4 22 17 Mizdirection.xls51 KB
HG 4 22 17 Mizdirection notes.doc30.5 KB
HGPOWDERBREAK.pdf204.63 KB