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Derby Runners-up in the Preakness
By Steven Crist
In the last 50 years, horses who finished second in the Kentucky Derby are only 2 for 36 in the Preakness Stakes. This seems worth mentioning in a year when the Derby runner-up, Bodemeister, is the likely morning-line favorite for the Preakness.
I was surprised the number was so low. I would have guessed more like half a dozen until I started filling in the blanks in the chart that appears below. Turns out that since 1962, only Prairie Bayou in 1993 and Summer Squall in 1990 followed up a Derby second with a Preakness victory. However, while the Derby runner-ups won under 6 percent of the time during that span, they did finish in the top three at Pimlico over 60 percent of the time with an overall record of 36: 2-11-9.
Some excellent horses have finished second in the Derby over the last 50 years including four Hall of Famers: Alydar, Arts and Letters, Best Pal and Easy Goer...none of whom won the Preakness.
[Footnote: If you want to be literal-minded, you could argue that Forward Pass sort of counts because he crossed the wire second to Dancer's Image in the 1968 Derby and then won the Preakness. However, Dancer's Image was disqualified and Forward Pass was officially the Derby winner, not the Derby runner-up, when he ran in the Preakness.]
I noticed that Mr Romans mentioned on 6/4/12 that if Dullahan didn"t run wide in the derby he would have won. It could also be said that if he didn't run over union rags then he would have at least had a chance. watch the belmont Mr Romans
Good stuff, notice lately, they haven't run well, most 10-20 yrs ago, didn't like bode b 4
I like this statistics you made. I don't like the first or second choice.
Remarkable how many 3-yr-olds get good and stay good for a few weeks at this time of year. I notice a lot of consistency between Derby and Preakness with in-the-money finishes, which means most of them don't slow down much from the former to the latter, despite the Derby's reputation as a grueling race. Some horses actually seem to flourish as the result of having run in the Derby. Funny Cide was never as good before the Derby as he was in that win, but instead of regressing he thrived and even moved up in the Prekness. How can one tell when a young colt has peaked in running a lifetime best and when he's still arriving at the peak? Naturally, we all expect you to have the definitive, black and white answer or else(!).
Bode lost the last two of three. For goodnes sake. The horse runs fast just like a bunch of othether Baffert horses have done. He has not guts though to grind it out. He is gona be out of the money if he finishes at all. Poor horse. He has no sense of pace. Reminds me of my dog Coco who will run after anything. You guys know better but you are hoping that he will hang on this time. He didnt two races ago. He looked tired and done just like in the KD. That is no sign of a superhorse. I
Stat is Bodie is 2-5, 3 second places, and the race he ran was exactly to specifications. Baffert said he was not going to experiment in KDy, rather run his horse to front, as in past. And as in past, Curlin ran in Derby, and reflected Bodie's non-runner as a 2-yold results, nada in win column. But Curlin was undefeated in three races and posted a third in KDy, beaten by a robust horse Street Sense, and beat SS in Preak, as SS ran second. And Curlin went on to be a pretty-pretty-pretty good horse, with exception to running into plastic surface newly installed at Santa Anita Bred. Cup. As with Bodie, I think he is cooked-up(big,great,memorable run), and in within four days of this post, I give him a 2-6 record. Dogs Up
Great article , I did notice this form back in 2009 and 2010 when I had wheeled them both in my Kentucky Derby trifecta wheel 1 , 2 , 3 . I at that time didnt care for neither towards the Preakness . I have been at the Fair Hill training visiting and watching Union Rags gallop afew times these last few days . Everything seems to be on schedual for Union Rags headed to the Belmont Stakes . I dont really understand their reasoning for not going on to the Preakness , other than Matz and Brutte have talked and felt that its going to be a long season coming up before heading to Santa Anita for the Breeders Cup this fall . They want this next race very badly , and they feel that the Belmont Stakes is a Perfect set-up . Speaking about the Preakness here at the Fair Hill training center , they ALMOST came to Pimlico with Union Rags because they truly believed ( That IFFFFFFFF ) Bodemeister is ever going to have a bad race , the Preakness would be where he ( B O U N C E ) . And the way history repeats its-self as the Derby runner-up , This very well may happen . Its possible ! They believe here at the training center that it just might come down to ( ILL HAVE ANOTHER - CREATIVE CAUSE ) . I normally dont care for the Preakness race each year . Most of the time its Chalk city , and dull . I really was hoping to see many more Derby Colts coming back to run in the Preakness . But not surprising . Good Luck to everyone wagering on the Preakness
I generally see races conducted in different years as having very little to do with one another. Yes, the overall trend is noteworthy - and if Bode gets a lone trip on a soft pace up front he may well be hard to overhaul. That said, I see other possible scenarios - including IHA sitting right off, putting Bode away and running home. Another - Bode and IHA start battling after about a 1/2 - Went the Day Well gets a perfect trip sitting in 4th and blows by them both in the lane. With CC and Daddy coming along to contest the minor slots with Bode. Be clear Bode will be on the lead and it is unlikely he will have to run as fast early to get it this time.
Im going to wait and see how the track is playing before anything. I adjusted on Derby day and took Bode in the exacta with IHA only because of the track. He got a double helper with his speed and a speed favoring surface. Actually didnt care for him going into the derby because he offered no value. All i know is whoever wins the race will be close or within a few lengths at the eighth pole. Wish they would put blinkers back on CC. He did beat Bode with some help from American Act setting the pace in San Felipe. Looks like he is a winner cause of the lack of speed but he is still a young talented horse that is not as seasoned as some of the others. IHA will not get same trip in this race unless he gets another outside post. From a betting standpoint I'll see what CC offers and use BODE in my rolling exotics. Not spending much though on Preakness. Way better races that offer more value--and isnt that what this game is about, making money?
I wish these stats would make Bode's price better, but sadly nothing will. He'll have my money either way, now to just solidify 2nd with a fat cold exacta....
- 1.Posted 05/19/2013 09:25AM
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