02/15/2010 7:21PM

Derby Futures Pool 1


Of the 552 possible combos in the Derby Futures exacta pool that closed yesterday, 24 of them would pay less than $200 and 25 would pay more than $10,000. Below is a table listing the closing $2 win will-pays on the 24 betting interests, and those 24 highest and lowest $2 exacta will-pays:


Win betting totalled $385,995, and the exacta pool was $80,053. (By comparison, the exacta pool on today's first race at Aqueduct, for $10,000 claimers, was $123,909.) So it appears that the smallest amount wagered on any combination was $6 on the 4-18 ticket of Concord Point over Stay Put. Good luck.

Some oddities and observations:

*Usually, you would expect an exacta of a 3-2 shot on top of an 8-1 shot to pay less than the reverse, but the Lookin at Lucky/All Others exacta was the most heavily bet at $51.20, while All Others/Lookin at Lucky would pay $53.20.

*You have to think that the most popular betting strategies were a)front- and back-wheeling the "All Others" interest and b)boxing All Others with Lookin at Lucky and Buddy's Saint. The #24 was part of 21 of the 24 lowest-paying exactas, and the six combos involcing the three favorites took all six lowest-paying spots.

*The only horses involved in both under-$200 and over-$10,000 exacta will-pays were Conveyance (#5), Noble's Promise (#15) and Tiz Chrome (#20), who made the "short" list running second to All Others but were involved in five-digit payoffs with other longshots.

blackseabass More than 1 year ago
Steve, future book individuals are dropping like Dryflys, 2 in 3 days since my guesstimate of 15 before May 1st. I'll raise my guess to 19 and both you and I know that I'm not going to be far off.
blackseabass More than 1 year ago
Steve, I'm probably just a big dummy but I think I see at least 15 of the 23 individual betting interests that are very unlikely to be in the gate come the first saturday in may.
george quinn More than 1 year ago
Probably a good idea to bet an exacta when they are in the gate. Especially when they are so joicy on Derby Day. George in Tampa
Derby Man More than 1 year ago
How many 3 year-olds have run well in their first 9 furlong race at the reconfigured Gulfstream Park and improved afterwards? Was Barbaro the only to do so? For example McPeek seemed to have a whole slew of horses that peaked on their first 9f trip at GP last year. Tomorrow in the FofYouth we may similar as other horses that have already run 9f at GP are in the race at long odds. Not only is GP losing out to tracks with the conventional 8f furling ovals, such as Tampa, and providing renewed vigor to other races such as the Wood, but this has us handicappers just picking the field in these future bets as the road to the Derby continues to evolve (in the wrong direction).
Tom D. More than 1 year ago
Nice headline regarding Letenors' race Wed. It's like Nascar last Sat. when Tony Stewart won the race but the headline read " Danica finishes 35th." Doubles Partner got a great ride from Chris DeCarlo. The horse has really taken to the turf. Maybe next time he runs we can read about him and not the runner up.
HorseRun More than 1 year ago
what happens if all 20 horses in the derby are #24 horses, which looks likes the case this year , as this crop so far shows me NOTHING !
wordmanx More than 1 year ago
In the KD Future Pool, I wonder why you can't bet an exacta of "all others" with "all others" ?? Seems to me they just have to copy #24 into a dummy number (say 25) and allow for a 24-25 exacta (or ex box)??
Unitas More than 1 year ago
For the life of me, I can't understand how anyone would bet these "Future Pools" with so few betting interests involved. If there are approximatley 350 3yo's nominated to the Triple Crown, why aren't every one of these horses offered as a seperate betting interest? Placing a wager on a 3yo some 3 months out from the running of this event is a huge gamble to begin with, with no refunds once the wager is placed. Not only does the horse need to prove he is a quality animal to reach the starting gate, he may need to secure enough graded race purse money to qualify as a starter, need to stay injury free, and of course, peak on the day of this race to wear the blanket of roses and be crowned Derby winner. Taking odds of around 8-1 on 2yo Champ Looking at Lucky is nothing less than lunacy in my book, yet there are no other really inviting odds to take shot with to beat this quality animal given all of the factors stated above. Take 3-2 odds on the field? Risking $2 to win $3 3 months out on a plethera of horses you probably never heard of yet is no way to get rich, or more likely, to aquire bragging rights to let it be known you had correctly doped out the winner of America's most famous race. I was a real wise guy in '05, actually touting my 2 future wager bets to all my buddies countless times, and how I knew I was gonna make a tremendous score. Almost. I used two horses in the future pools, Giacomo and Closing Argument. Well when Giacomo went by Closing Argument in the last closing jumps, I couldn't wait to start wailing all the "I told you so's" to my buddies, who neglected to make this "Brilliant" future wager with me, instead waiting out three long months to catch this winner on Derby day itself. What a huge slice of humble pie I consumed after the official prices were posted. Giacomo actually paid MORE to win Derby day than he did when I "Brilliantly" touted and wagered on him some 3 months earlier(Thank my lucky stars that I caught the Giacomo-Closing Argument exacta that day - $10K for $2) I will NEVER again play a future wager where the entire lot of eligible horses are not offered as seperate betting interests - In my opinion, it's just not worth it. I have a question concerning the "Future Pool" exacta wager...Was a combination offered having the #24(field, all other 3 yo's) over the #24? This is a very realistic possibility- was just wondering if this combination was offered to the betting public. If not, and the exacta comes in two field runners running one-two, how would this be paid out, or WOULD it be paid out? Please excuse my ignorance on the previous question, and I would appreciate any answers you guys(and gals!) may have for me. Good luck to all.
Arcstats More than 1 year ago
Steve, interesting article reagrding the upcoming Apple Blossom stakes and the sobering facts that face owners in this sport. What I don't understand is why you feel there will only be six horses in the race? Having seen nothing indicating this is a "by invitation only", what owner with a decent filly or mare not run in a race where 3rd place is 500K and 4th 250K? Furthermore big favorites go down all the time. Hopefully that starting gate will be loaded with horses taking a shot. With the percentage of owners making money so small, how can one NOT take a shot at 5 million?
jim More than 1 year ago
Quite confused with John Asher's statement regarding Derby futres pool: "We discuss every year the possibility of expanding the number of individual wagering interests in the bet, but that prospect has been limited by current mutuel hardware and the cost of upgrading hardware across the country to accommodate a larger number in the pool. To many critics, that seems like an easy call to make, but these things are never as simple as they seem. Some larger players have also shared their concerns that the Future Bet would be less attractive to them if the number of betting interests was significantly expanded." They can take multiple combo bets but can't take more than 24 straight plays without hardware upgrade? I don't know of anyone that would find an expanded pool less attractive than the current disaster.