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Derby Day 139
11:45 am: Happy Derby Day. A mere 415 minutes to Derby post time, the track is extremely fast at Churchill Downs but the predicted rain is just starting. The opener, an N2x allowance for fillies, went in 1:08.75 for 6f and the 2nd, an N1x for males, took just 1:21.68 for 7f.
If you didn't get down on the pick-4 beginning with the 2nd, there are three more on the card (races 4-7, 8-11 and 10-13), not to mention a pick-5 (7-11) and pick-6 (6-11) ending with the Derby. The stakes racing starts with the 6th at 1:19 pm, the first of six straight graded stakes and the 10th, the G1 Woodford Reserve Turf Classic, features an intriguing showdown between Wise Dan and Point of Entry.
Scratches from the stakes so far are the longshots Class Included from the Distaff Turf Mile, Swift Warrior from the Turf Classic, and the previously-announced Black Onyx and Fear the Kitten from the Derby.
After being sidelined on the vets' list the last couple of weeks, my bankroll and I are jumping back in once the stakes begin and I'll be posting my multirace tickets here later. Below is my cheat sheet on the 6th through 11th, and you can find my Derby Day column picking Overanalyze (currently 14-1) over Orb, Normandy Invasion and Revolutionary by clicking here.
12:45 pm: I'm making only a token pick-6 play and instead saving my bullets for the pick-5 and pick-4 ending with the Derby. It was going to cost me over $3k to use everyone I wanted in the first four legs just to get alive to Wise Dan and Point of Entry in the WR Turf Classic and then just my top four picks in this wide-open Derby. So I'm making the justincase caveman pick-6 play as follows:
2,3,6,8/6/3,5/5,8,9/8,9/3,5,9,16. That's 4x1x2x3x2x4 for 192 combos and $384.
The single is Aubby K in the Humana Distaff. A more robust play, and the lower-minimum multirace bets I'll play later on, would also use Rumor and Emma's Encore.
Marketing Mix is now scratched from the Distaff Turf Mile.
1:30 pm: Arggh. Good news is I wouldn't have used Berlino Di Tiger if I'd put in $3k instead of $384, bad news is the caveman died as Chamberlain Bridge fell a stride short of getting up at an overlaid 8-1. Berlino Di Tiger dueled early with Southern Dude, won the battle, and just held off 9-year-old Chamberlain Bridge as that one made a furious late rally at the tiring leader.
On to the pick-5:
Track has been downgraded to sloppy as rain continues.
2:20 pm: Aubby K., who should have been ML favorite and was narrow 7-2 post-time choice, took over from Jamaican Smoke in upper stretch and held off Burban and Holiday Soiree to win the G1 Humana Distaff. The 4-year-old Street Sense-Lilly Capote filly, a James Spence homebred trained by Ralph Nicks, paid $9.20 and ran the 7f in 1:22.93 on the increasingly sloppy track.
2:40 pm: Turf course downgraded to "yielding" for upcoming G2 Distaff Turf Mile.
3:05 pm: Stephanie's Kitten, making her 4-year-old debut off a nearly seven-month layoff, ran down Hungry Island to win the Distaff Turf Mile. Winner of the Alcibiades and BC Juvenile Fillies Turf at 2 and the Lake Placid at 3, Stephanie's Kitten p;robably ran the strongest race of her career today to catch Hungry Island, who won this race last year.
The Ramsey homebred, a Kitten's Joy filly trained by Wayne Catalano, is now 3 for 3 over the CD turf course. The rain has clearly slowed things down: The winner's time was 1:37.94, sharply slower than the 1:41.98 for amile and a sixteenth turned in earlier in the day by Atigun in an allowance victory.
3:25 pm: Point of Entry just scratched from the Woodford Reserve Turf Classic. Pick-4/5/6 tickets through him will be moved to the post-time favorite, which figures to be Wise Dan at odds-on.
4:00 pm: Delauney ($5.80) won his sixth straight race and his first graded stakes with a flourish, dispoing of champion Trinniberg in upper stretch and drawing away to a runaway victory in the G2 Churchill Downs in 1:22.35 for 7f. Pass the Dice was up for second with Laurie's Rocket third.
The 6-year-old Smoke Glacken gelding, owned by Maggi Moss and trained by Tom Amoss, has turned into a new horse since being claimed by that duo out of a $40k claimer at Churchill last May 12. He came into today's race having won five straight ungraded stakes including three straight over Gantry at the Fair Grounds.
On to the diminshed Woodford Reserve, and time to switch from NBC Sports Network to NCB proper, which picks up the Derby coverage from now until 7 pm before the post-race show back on NBC Sports.
The Woodford Reserve is scheduled to go at 4:44 pm, and then it's at least an hour and 40 minutes until the 6:24 post time for the Derby.
4:30 pm: The hat-centeric, Tweet-centric coverage on NBC is just excruciating. Yes, I know, this isn't a simulcast for bettors but no other sport so thoroughly dumbs down the coverage of its signature events this way. Unless I missed it, no one has yet mentioned that the sport's reigning Horse of the Year is running in 15 minutes. It's a missed opportunity to explain to people what racing is and how it works and why Wise Dan is considered the best horse in America as opposed to any of the Derby horses.
4:40: They just announced there would be "bonus coverage" of "the Turf Classic" after the next commercial. We saw a shot of "Gary Stevens's horse" near the gate but still no use of the words Wise or Dan.
4:55 pm: Wise Dan cruised to an easy victory in the WRTC, stalking Silver Max and Optimizer until the head of the stretch, when he took over under a hand ride and stopped the timer in 1:51.84. Optimizer was second with Middie up for third. Hope NBC gets the water blotches off the camera lenses before the Derby.
Wise Dan's victory was his sixth straight and 9th in his last 10 starts.
Now begins the waiting.
5:05 pm: The current Derby odds, which really haven't changed much throughout the afternoon:
5:10 pm: And here are the multirace willpays into the Derby (except for the pick-5's, which are not posted on the NYRA Rewards site.)
Looks like 15 of the 19 Derby starters are covered in the pick-6, with only Golden Soul, Giant Finish, Falling Sky and Charming Kitten open to produce a carryover.
5:48 pm: Win odds updated above as of 5:45 pm. Nobody has moved more than a point except Vyjack, who was 43-1 yesterday and has come down from 33-1 to 26-1 in the last three hours.
7:00 pm: Orb's victory was impressive, deserving, satisfying and popular. He's an easy colt to root for and so are his connections. On to Baltimore.
TRAVERS Stakes winner ORB August 24, 2013. What a XXX story that would be. Orb wins the Preakness. The build up to the Belmont Stakes would be earth shattering. Over 100,000 fans show up. It's a beautiful sunny 70 degree early June day on Long Island. August Belmonts 1910 vision bursting at the seams. ORB wins the Triple Crown for one of the greatest racing families in North America. Shug say's he is going to rest his CHAMPION for the 4TH leg of the greatest superfecta ever. THE 2013 TRAVER"S STAKES. How big would that crowd be????????Party at Serio's the Friday night before. OMFG!!!!! It would be the PARTY to end all PARTY'S. I would die a happy man (horseplayer)!!!!!!
Could somebody help me?. I has tickets on 5/10 (Friday in Hollywood Race Track) with daily double on race 7th 6-1. The 6 won 7th race, but the 1, was scratched in 8th race. I saw the results and do not see any consolation payoff?....why?
Tvg, hr tv,etc. should provide derby coverage for the hardcore player (showing will pays)while NBC provides coverage for the casual fan
I wish the telecast had not included that unfunny and dumb woman. Why ask idiot celebrities who they like to win? The telecast should not be a Saturday Night type of program.
"Orb's victory was impressive, deserving, satisfying and popular." I would concur with some of this. Yet if Orb had hit traffic and 2nd place finisher Golden Soul had won, HIS victory would have been declared aberrant, unimpressive, undeserving, unsatisfying and definitely unpopular. It would be universally declared a weird, freakish result due to the slop, a la Mine That Bird. You never really get a true bill on an off track. And that absolutely applies to a winning chalk as much as it does to a longshot. Orb looked solid coming into the Derby and he looks solid coming out, but there are reasons to strongly note the track conditions and the brutal early pace going forward.
The Oak, Wood and K.D. paid well The future wager Oaks double All were nice payouts also For SH 5 fans 200 k c.o. good luck to all
I had Orb with Revolutionary and then to Normandy for the trifecta/got screwed by the longshot. BUT, how in the world did that race end up like it did? If you watched EVERY MUDDY race on that card NO CLOSERS were finishing, at all!!! Then, the Derby comes and the top 5 finishers all close with EASE!!! Please, Please don't tell me about the fast fractions and blah, blah blah. There was a TOTAL speed bias before the Derby and then it went the exact opposite!
The Nbc telecast needs the voice/opinion of a trainer.Forget about the fluffy stuff,sorry,Beadle, and the repetitive tapes.Just as in football games,a different perspective would help,,how many times are you going to rely on hype? This event has too much of it anyway.,,
steve: first, welcome back, and thanks once again for keeping the charts and information flowing on one of the biggest racing weekends of the year. that said, i just wanted to "vent" somewhere, and hope you will be able to answer my query in this post. i bet these weekends and races hard, always have. i have been a loyal racing fan throughout the years, and have supported the sport through both attendance, when i can, and my wagering dollars, which have been fairly substantial. i was heavily invested this weekend, and had pk3's with the oaks/woodford/derby, and had saver tickets with princess of sylmar, and used wise dan and POE with 6 derby horses, including ORB. when POE scratched, i had already committed a lot of $ as well to pick4's and pick5's, and knew that any POE tickets would go to WD. i decided to let my tickets ride, and figured my pk3 ticket would all got to WD, whcih should work out well. i did not play any pk3"s singling WD, or doubles, and while i played some small tri's in derby, i figured i had plenty of action, and would make out ok. well, after the derby, i checked my on line acct, and saw that the pk3 was a consolation, instead of moving to WD, and i got thoroughly and completely. not that it matters to you, or anyone else on this blog, but i am done. no more for me thanks. i cannot beat a system that does not post its rules, and seems to implement them arbitrarily and inconsistently, at least from where i stand. i guess i could have called up twinspires, and asked what the policy was, but as i have never had this happen before, and all other times i am stuck with the favorite (whether i already used him/her or not), i took it to be a consistent theme in multi race wagers. boy was i wrong. i just cannot stomach it any more, so my $ will be on the sidelines. i will watch, and i will still keep abreast of things, but my primary motive has always been the idea that i could make $ if i bet smartly and seek out opportunities that look good to me. the powers that be have slammed me for the last time. thanks for listening, and best of luck along the way todd
Dear Steven Crist, it is indeed nice to see your latest posting, after long gap, i was bit worried about silence , thank God you are back , keep coming and bless your readers like me,thanks steven, very educative blog, easwaran, India