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Derby Cleanup Carryover
12:50 pm: Seven of the nine horses in the first leg of today's big carryover at Churchill Downs are between 4-1 and 6-1 on the morning line, and it doesn't get a whole lot easier thereafter. Play we must with a $947,641 carryover from Derby Day, but how much?
I'm probably going to get involved at the same $900 to $1200 level that I did on Oaks and Derby days and I'm sure some of you think that's crazily low. Why wouldn't I put in 2x, 5x or 10x as much as I did into a $96k carryover at Belmont Sunday?
Here's my thinking: I haven't followed or studied more than a handful of the dozens of races the horses in this sequence are emerging from; one of the two potential single "A's" I saw on the card was an early scratch (Spiritus, race 6); even after scratches, there are big, messy fields of 9, 10, 9, 11, 7 and 12 (748,440 possible combos, or nearly $1.5 million to buy the thing); and I'm up against a bunch of people and partnerships who are going to be putting in five-digit plays today. So I'm hoping for a pretty chalky sequence that pays way more than it should rather than a longshot-laden six-figure payoff.
The worksheet below is a work in progress and has some big gaps in it, meaning I've still got plenty of work to do between now and 2:53 p.m., when the sequence is scheduled to begin. (Every time I start going through the pp's for the 8th, the sprint for $5k older claiming fillies, I feel a headache coming on.) The column of Beyer Speed Figures to the left of the comment for each horse lists what I think of as a "best relevant Beyer" -- not necessarily a career top or last-race figure, but the best fairly recent performance achieved at something resembling today's surface and distance.
Good luck if you're playing, and I'll be back in a couple of hours to post my final tickets and follow along.
2:45 pm: Ten minutes to post. I set myself a limit of $1200 and spent every penny, as follows:
The more I looked the shakier everything seemed. To hit my budget, I had to downgrade some B's to C's and toss some C's entirely, but so it goes.
3:00 pm: Oh well. Second Choice Gold Bells Spin went to his nose and dumped his rider at the start, and my two other A's were awful. Fifth choice Berlioz ($20.40) dusted the rest of them, a good result for those who spread and put in a bundle. As for me, it's down to one backup ticket that goes 2x2x2x1x3 the rest of the way. The total pool is being reported as just over $4 million.
3:30 pm: Looks like I stayed alive as 4-1 Da Bossman just got up over the 2-1 favorite Speedy Solution, but the HRTV commentators are talking about a possible dq. Didn't look like one on the pan, but we'll see. DO they HAVE to go to a strong of commercials during a possible inquiry in a $4 million pool?
3:33 pm: Back from commercial, no mention of an inquiry, and we're watching races from Calder and Arlington....Ah, a graphic showing prices from Churchill. Apparently no inquiry, and Da Bossman official at $10.40.
3:40 pm: Baffled by the board for the 7th: Refined Silk, who looked like one of the two strongest contenders, is 13-1, and I have no idea why Pat Pat is 7-2 instead of 12-1 unless it's a Calvin thing.
4:05 pm: The other strongest contender, 9-5 Quiet by Seven, up late to collar 25-1 Proven Right and keep the thread going: 3,9/5/7,12,14 to go. Started with 600 combos, down to 6. Have to think Proven Right, first time Romans and with races last year as good as anyone's, was shorter than 25-1 in the pick-6 but he would have raised the strong possibility of a triple-carry. The $2 pick-3 of the first half of the pick-6 paid $396.80.
4:40 pm: Divvied upt the three obvious favorites into two A's and a B and leaned the wrong way. Good luck to those of you still in it.
5:15 pm: No triple-carryover: All 12 covered in the finale, ranging from one live ticket for $2.8 million on Sadlers Boot to 237 at $12k each on Groundwork. Thanks to making that $8.40 winner a B instead of an A, I'm alive only for consos -- five to the 7, 12 and 14 and three to the 6 and 10.
5:45 pm: Firster Necaise, only a $1,000 yearling purchase, won the finale at 5-1 to cap a $21,317.80 payoff, which amounts to 133 winning tickets. As it worked out for me (CAABAB), I got less than half my money back via three consos at $171.60 -- one for each A in the first leg. Can't really complain since, in a nine-horse field, they ran 7th, 8th and 9th.
Steve, When is something going to be done about the NYRA stewards? They made another absurd DQ this weekend, the 3rd one i have seen in the past few months. Why cant the stewards be held accountable in NY? These type of takedowns dont go one at other tracks. Do the people in charge at NYRA even care about how awful their stewards are? You cant keep DQ'ing horses for minor incidents and expect people to keep betting your product.
Getting pumped up for Monmouth. Beautiful place--Love Florida retirement better
Aikenite and Pleasant Prince, the second- and third-place finishers in the Derby Trial two weeks ago, tuned up for next Saturday's 135th Preakness Stakes with workouts in Kentucky on Sunday morning. Aikenite, who has been training at Churchill Downs, breezed five furlongs in 1:01.40, a work trainer Todd Pletcher called a "standard work for him." Pletcher caught Aikenite going his final three furlongs in 23.60 seconds. WOW. 3F in 23.60. Where do I go to bet on this horse?
Hey... the blog is different today. Did you change the settings for how we view the responses? It's now a wide view and pretty easy on the eyes. I took a shot and came closer (4 of 6) with a sixty dollar ticket than we did on our $144.00 ticket. The 8 horse (had the three) in the eigth and the 10 (had the 7)in the 10th.
Steve, Any thoughts on someone hitting the Pick-6 today at Belmont? By my math the parlay would be over 209,000.
i had 56911/127910/2/2 stewards better have not cost me pick 4
Are these stewards BLIND.i dont know how they take down the 11 in the 7th race.I have seen things 10 times worse and they stay up.These corrupt stewards should be FIRED
Steve, Your comment on HRTV going to some hover round commerical right after a race is right on. These producers on HRTV do not have a clue. I know they have to pay bills but use some sense. TVG has a few problems also but at least they know what their there for. GAMBLING.
Steve, Thanks for putting your comments on the horses you selected in the spreadsheet for CD's 5/6/10 Pick 6. I saw where your picks were different than mine (you were right) and why. I learned a lot. Please keep doing this!
I am interested by the brave new betting opportunities. Back in the 1970's, Narragansett Park used to have a Twin Trifecta. I became aware of this when an All-State Basketball player I used to run with spoke of how he almost hit it once. He prefaced the discussion by saying it was “the biggest sucker bet going”. If memory serves me right the bet would start at the 4th race where the participant would attempt to hit the trifecta. If you did properly hit the first half of the wager,(1-2-3, the 4th race Tri) you would get a pay-out based on 40 % of the pool and then receive a ticket to attempt to hit the trifecta in the 6th race with the one ticket. Hence, the Twin Trifecta – you had to hit two Tri's exactly to get the big pay-out. My friend had a 1st, 3rd, 2nd ticket in a 3 way photo of the 6th race. The races by the the 70's were pretty low class and I remember watching the wager in the papers as many a 6th race had a 58 dollar winner. So the wager would remain unhit and the pool would grow. At that time, 100k was a big night for total pool and the Twin Trifecta was one of the few reasons to go to the track. Sucker bet or not. I am surprised that more tracks don't go for this type of big pool wager. People seem to love Big Pools.