11/19/2011 12:21PM

Delta Princess, Discovery Handicap, Hollywood Turf Cup


The Delta Jackpot, basically a "Win and You're In" for next spring's Kentucky Derby, headlines this weekend's racing action. 

DRILL hopes to rebound from a disastrous run in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile.  He's the likely favorite based on his Southern California form, but I'll take a stab with BASMATI, a recent maiden winner at Santa Anita.  Basmati rode a slow early pace when going gate-to-wire that day and I'm hoping he can rate and finish with other speeds entered in the Jackpot. 

*I must admit that I'm more interested in the preceding race on the Delta card, the Grade 3 Delta Princess for juvenile fillies.  As in the Jackpot, trainer Bob Baffert has a highly-fancied runner returning from a dismal finish in the Breeders' Cup.  CANDREA set fast fractions at Churchill Downs before retreating to the back of the field.  The Princess has a good amount of speed with NOW I KNOW, DELIGHTFUL MAGIC, Candrea and others comfortable on the front end.  I'll look to midpack for the winner and landed on DEVIOUS INTENT for trainer Bret Calhoun.  Never off the board from three lifetime starts, Devious Intent was the runner-up in the local prep for the Jackpot, the My Trusty Cat Stakes on October 22.  In that affair, she may have been compromised when the winner, the pacesetting CITIZEN ADVOCATE, backed down the fractions (25.1 second quarter, 25.1 third quarter).  Devious Intent went after that one in earnest on the final turn, but Citizen Advocate had more than enough left in the tank to fend her off.  In the Princess, considering there may be more pace signed on, the lightly-raced Devious Intent may receive a better setup. 
SELECTIONS:  Devious Intent, Now I Know, Citizen Advocate

*The feature race at Aqueduct on Saturday afternoon, the Grade 3 Discovery Handicap for 3-year-olds, features REDEEMED, the recent winner of the Oklahoma Derby at Remington Park.  Redeemed, in his first start with blinkers, chased quick fractions while in and among horses before angling out for a clear run turning for home.  He successfully passed the nine-furlong test by running down the solid Alternation in the final sixteenth.  The price probably won't be very attractive on Redeemed this afternoon, but another good trip may be coming for a colt that's never been off the board.  Redeemed consistently runs Beyers in the mid-90s.  Another performance like that should make him very tough.
SELECTIONS:  Redeemed, Golden Gulch, Socialsaul

*I'll look for a longer price in the Grade 1 Hollywood Turf Cup, but FALCON ROCK is a horse that has burned me on multiple occasions.  Falcon Rock hasn't been out since finishing second in the Grade 3 Sunset Handicap in July, but there are some question marks on many of the other runners.  BOURBON BAY is a good performer, but hasn't raced since a last-place finish in the Northern Dancer on September 18; NORVSKY is sharp, but is a total unknown at this 12-furlong distance; MISS MATCH is a mare facing males and has never won on grass; SANAGAS may have the most upside, but he was a bit goofy with his lead changes in the stretch last time out and could take a boatload of money here.  So, it's one more time for Falcon Rock, but I won't be investing much.
SELECTIONS:  Falcon Rock, Norvsky, Sanagas


For a more-detailed look at some of the major stakes races this weekend, please check out the handicapping videos that Mike Beer and I filmed at the below link:


Mike and I take a look at Delta's 50-cent Pick 4 at the following link:



More importantly, who do you like this weekend? I want to know.

Curt V. More than 1 year ago
Butts: She never won a race on Dirt vs. Male Mules, let alone Male Thoroughbreds. & of course the Rolling Moss Stone scratched herself out of "Little bit O' Slop.."{quite an Explosion}. & then the ill fated "I aint getting checked out by the Detention Police of New York....">>Oh! Rachel's running ? Phew!! That was close......>>Don't you realise I can't ship no more than 2,500 Miles ?...It's in my contract....I own all the **********'s.....Other than that......."It's all in the game....">Tommy Edwards would be proud...........So much for that streak.. Sing it Peggy......."Is that all there is.....?" Next time you talk about Rapid Redux & his streak, see above..........
Calvin L. Carter More than 1 year ago
SR Vegas, meathead01, Here's some new information about the book I wanted to pass on. Preorder before 2/01/12 for a 15% discount off plus free shipping. If ordering by phone (800.423.4525) mention the coupon code KT151011 to get the discounts. If ordering online, enter the coupon code KT151011 at checkout to get the discounts. http://bit.ly/nj6hJT
meathead01 More than 1 year ago
Calvin L. Carter thanks for the info on the book. MH01
David M More than 1 year ago
After reading some solid viewpoints on Rapid Redux I thought I could give my viewpoint. 20 in a row is unbelievable at any level. It has been fun to follow the wins. I am rooting for 40. Seeing hard knocking claimers is neat. My hats off to RR for the accomplishment! I agree with Pippen0707 on one point - claimers not holding form as consistently as stakes horses. 2-3 races and they often seem to go kaput. So RR ‘s winning streak is impressive even if the last race at MTNR was a walk in the park. I respectfuly differ with others who profess Zenyatta did not beat anybody. Personally, yes I wish Zenyatta had faced tougher fields in SoCal. I wish she faced 5 grade one winners in every one of her 19 straight. But it simply was a not the strongest division in SoCal over her entire career. I know she beat horses that won many stakes, maybe I need to revisit that list when it is re-shared but some of the short fields she beat were not first class. However, when you are as imposing as Z was you scare off what real competition is out there. Trainers don’t want to run hard in a $150,000 stake for 20% place money when they can shoot for 60% somewhere else. In the end she beat the ones that lined up against her. She ran two monster races in the BC when we tend to measure ultimate greatness. Bottom line…. she could run a hole in the wind and did it with style. Despite RR holding the record I still consider Zenyatta’s the true record holder. My thinking may be off (usually is) but I compare it to baseball where numbers matter most. If a batter hits .407 in the AAA International League is it better than Joe DiMaggio's .406 in the major league? It does not diminish the .407 in AAA one iota, it just was not done at the pinnacle of competition. On another issue I don’t know who is the best - Z, Sea of Stars, Seattle Slew, Affirmed, or Secretariat. I imagine all would take turns beating each other at various distances in different conditions and surfaces. I would like to get 4-1 on Slew with an uncontested lead though.
meathead01 More than 1 year ago
David M. your comparision of batting averages was right on line Z won against Gr.1 company most of her races and you cant compare her wins to a $5K winner regardless how many he wins its like comparing apples and oranges you cant! MH01
blackseabass More than 1 year ago
CurtV, like Captain Steve has said before those so-called plastic tracks are 90% dirt . I notice I didn't see The Dogman or Andy publishing any stats about horses not being able to go Dirt to Synthetic now that they had a whole meets worth of horses to "STUDY" this year.LOL. 0 for 43 blah blah blah. 75 % of them rank outsiders on any track. Those 43 weren't supposed to win . They weren't good enough. Those bums RA beat weren't males. They were hermaphrodites !! LOL. Life is Sweet beat some of those "males" and the only one of them that had the onions to try her didn't give Zenyatta much trouble at all.
Molesap More than 1 year ago
I've been working on this trainer project with debut horses and that has evolved into looking at other stats for each of the trainers and I have a few of my favorite trainers running horses that I expect to run well today. However, most will be a relatively short price. Fred, Good luck with your procedure today. Hopefully everything goes as well as anticipated. A few interesting horses for Wednesday – I don’t want to influence you, but here goes: BEU 9 – Skip the Code (8-5) – Makes his second start for William Cowans after finishing second in his debut to a runaway winner, but was almost 9 lengths in front of the third place horse. Cowans wins a nice percentage of his second time starters and is overall training record at this track is “only” 20-9-5-5, so he is winning 45% of his starters and 95% of them finish in the money. His biggest threat likely comes from The Big Whammy (4-1), who I will use in a saver exacta, I do not expect the morning line odds to hold up and will evaluate my bets based on his post time odds if I’m able to make the race, but he seems like the most likely winner of the day. HAW 5 – Point Count (9-5) –A James DiVito second time starter who opened a huge lead in his debut at HAW (opened up 8-10 lengths on the turn) on Breeder’s Cup day only to get extremely leg weary late and walk the last 100 yards to finish third. DiVito horses typically don’t do this, so I’m willing to give him another chance. He should be the quickest out of the gate in this bunch and if he has any stamina, he should likely hold on for the win. I like Mollie’s Prize (6-1) for second at a bit of a price, but a first time starter named Our Unbridled Gem (10-1) also intrigues me underneath in the exotics as he has some interesting works and is named in Group 1 on the Breeze Figures Report. DED 3 – Geaux Cat Geaux (3-1) – This is a second time starter from Brian House who was favored in his debut only to race a bit greenly and never really pick up his feet. I always think it is tough to debut at longer distances and his first race was at a mile, so I expect significant improvement this time around. House has a great second out record and a positive ROI for these situations. Very playable anywhere near his morning line odds. WO 1 – Port Douglas (8-1) – A Julia Carey debut horse, so it is strictly a trainer play in this spot. Her record for first time starters this year is 12-3-2-2 with a healthy positive ROI. Worth a stab at decent odds.
blackseabass More than 1 year ago
About 3% of all golfers ever break 80 on a championship course. About 3 % of all racehorses ever win 3 races in a row !! With each successive win that number gets smaller & smaller !! What Rapid Redux is doing is very impressive. It would be impressive even if it was mostly 2 or 3 horse races like Man'O' War had. Something that tends to be overlooked is that if one horse is winning all the Gr. Is in a particular region then it doesn't leave many Gr.Is for the others in that division to win unless they move on to someplace else. Spectacular Bid beat 3 OVERMATCHED opponents in the Strub Stakes. Flying Paster , Relaunch & Pancho Villa. They were overmatched, buttZ... they were not DOGS. You can't run against equally matched horses if nobody is your match. Lets face facts. Zenyatta's lesser stablemate won the BC distaff beating the other best F&Ms like a drum. Zenyatta's even lesser stablemate little Z made mincemeat out of "THE GREAT" Rachel Alexandra.LOL. Zenyatta's other weaker stablemate out gutted "THE GREAT" Curlin LOL in the BC classic for the show. Affirmed was once beaten by 18 lengths. Seatle Slew was drubbed by 16.(I was there,the crowd was shocked, they weren't holding their breath because it was long since over at the 1/4 pole ) Secretariat was beaten by 4 or more multiple times. Dr Fager went down by 10 lengths once. Damascus & Buckpasser were considered great closers and they were. THEY CAME HOME LIKE SNAILS compared to Z. They were PLODDERS compared to Z. Zenyatta was at her very best from late 4yr old to early 5yr old. There hasn't been many horses EVER that could have gave her a tussle at that time.IMO. _________________________________________________________________________________ C, I've been around the block. Trying new things leaves question marks. I get it. Its a school of thought that you shouldn't bet on horses trying new things. In most instances its probably true. (thats how it became a truism ?) IMO the actual best of the very best don't usually care what surface they run on. All they know is that they are runners. IMO there is no good reason why Frankel would hate the dirt. Sure its just my hypothesis. Nothing prevents others from arriving at a different one. I bet against Zenyatta once . I bet against Spectacular Bid a few times ( Big Dummy). I ran second trying to beat Cigar about 4 times in a row. IMO its better to just watch those kind of horses run than it is to try and beat them. In a race like the Derby its different . With 20 horses usually everybody is a price. I doubt Frankel would have been less than 5-1 in the Derby . I would have been betting enough on him and all the other 1s to make sure I got something if one of them won the race. Even if I had to use him as a break even horse I wouldn't have left him off. So You Think is a good horse and he liked dirt. He ran his race. With some fast workouts and a more aggressive ride he could probably win some good races around here. Dirt damn sure wasn't the difference as you can clearly see he's going over it smoothly. It wasn't dirt that beat Sahkee & Giants Causeway it was TiZnow. They looked him in the eye and blinked. Anybody that thinks Sahkee or Giants Causeway didn't love dirt wasn't paying attention.
SR Vegas More than 1 year ago
Calvin Thank you for the additional information on the book. To Eveyyone Happy Thanksgiving and good luck with any wagers this week. Dan Our Man A special wish to you and your family. I am very thankful that you continue to keep this Formblog around for all of us to enjoy.
MSD More than 1 year ago
Patrick, A little late on my response but I just wanted to tell you and everyone else my opinion as well: I would not call it a disgrace. It is neat he has won 20 in a row and congrats to the connections. However: He is running against the same competition. I can see what you are trying to say. FOR EXAMPLE: I can run about a 7:30 mile. If I ran 20 times against kids who could run 8:30 minute miles on their best day and I raced them at a mile...I would win every time. I think it's the same type of thing with Rapid Redux: he's run against the same level of competition for a while...same types of horses, and he is gonna keep winning until they decide to challenge him against better horses. I would like to see him be challenged a little bit. To be honest, besides the record of most wins in a year, he has nothing to loose. I would like to see how good he can actually run against. I think it would be interesting. Anyone think Empire Way can loose that race at Hollywood Park Thanksgiving Day? I don't. I don't want to speak too soon but he could be the real deal; maybe better then his stablemate, Creative Cause, as he gets older and more mature. And I wouldn't be surprised if the runner up in his maiden race, Holy Candy, turns into a nice horse. Another Sadler stakes horse by a great sire in my opinion, Candy Ride.
TBTA More than 1 year ago
Patrick, Disagree with you completely. Why is it a disgrace for a horse to win 20 in a row? It's these kind of working class horses that keep the day to day fans cheering. I cheered for Pepper's Pride too. Saw no disgrace in her competing in statebred company at her home tracks. Of course Rapid Redux is not top class, but he is competing at a level that matches his skill. My high school basketball team did not lose a home or conference game for more than 12 years, from 1976 to 1988. Am I not supposed to be proud of that because they didn't beat a college team in the Big East or one of the national level basketball powerhouse high schools? Am I less proud of my son's high school team that won the state championship in NJ, although St Benedict's and St Anthony's chose to compete in a national level tourney that conflicted with the states? Am I diminished because my horses and I competed at Level 1 and not the FEI in dressage. Nope, I earned every one of those lower level ribbons. I probably worked just as hard as the Olympic riders, just didn't have Olympic quality talent (either horse or rider) or an Olympic competition budget. I love the little guy and the underdogs...........I hope Rapid Redux can win another 20!
Laura More than 1 year ago
BlackSeaBass aka, sweetypiehoneybunch, Right about the boat. Although I have plenty of friends that own them, so I have all the fun without the cost and upkeep, but I will help detail the boat when requested. As for drinking fish - I've never seen a fish drink and you're way off base with that remark. I rarely drink anymore and the last time I had an alcoholic beverage was in May. TY for the caring daughter remark, so all's good. Speaking of Mott, there's some nice babies in the barn this year. Indy Dreaming (AP Indy - Dream Supreme) is a full sister to Majestic Warrior. It will be awhile before we see her on the track, she's just started breezing. Input (Empire Maker - Introducing, by Deputy Minister) is the first colt out of his dam. She's a half sister to the G1 turf router Midships (Hol. Derby, etc.). 2 other half siblings placed going long in graded stakes over the lawn. Input has breezed 4 consecutive bullets, 2 at 5F over the Payson track, which is similar to Saratoga's training track. Hopefully Input will debut by next month and I know there are hopes that he can become a Derby horse. World Beyond (Empire Maker - Lakefront, by Deputy Minister) has also been breezing steadily at Payson, but is a little behind Input. He threw a couple of nice 4F bullets and recently worked once at 5F. He's a half to 2 stakes placed runners and his second dam is Lakeway, heroine of the Hollywood & SA Oaks, Mother Goose, etc. She's the granddam of Mushka (by Empire Maker) winner of the Demoiselle, Spinster, placed in the BC Distaff, and affectionate lover of peppermints and ear scratches. Of course, there are plenty of other beautiful, blue-blooded babies in the barn, but these three caught my attention so far. Laura