09/18/2012 10:59PM

Delaware Co. Fair offers plenty of action

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In a few short hours I will be on a plane headed to the Delaware County Fair. Few experiences compare to roaming the grounds at Delaware. I could spend an entire column on the sights and sounds, but instead I’ll provide something which hopefully offers more value: Analysis.

Delaware is offering multiple guaranteed wagers on their Wednesday and Thursday cards. Wednesday’s program features $25K and $50K pick four guarantees, while Thursday provides three promised pools: $25K pick three; $40K pick four; $60K pick four.

Below is a brief summary for each ticket. My full card analysis for Wednesday, additional video analysis and LIVE VIDEO can be found here. You won’t want to miss a minute of the action because the simulcast show with Sam McKee, Dave Bianconi and Ellie Sarama is first rate.

Live video for Thursday’s Jug Card is available here.

WEDNESDAY

Race 6 – Start of $25,000 Pick Four

2,6,7 – 1,2,3 – 3 – 1,3,5,6 = $36 for $1 ticket

 The first leg is wide open on paper. I lean towards (2) MONEY AND ME on the post edge only. I’m using (6) ANDIE SOPHIA but worried whether her racing style will be hindered by the half-mile track and (7) DEWEY LANE, who gets a new driver and has shown speed. (8) MISTERY WOMAN looks interesting, but the post disadvantage looks tough to overcome; use on deep tickets.

Leg two seems like a battle between the three inside horses. It is truly going to come down to which horse gets the better trip. I can see (5) WHOTOOKSAM getting involved but won’t be using him.

(3) OASIS DREAM looks like a standout in the third leg. Sure, this filly could lose, but she looks like a legitimate 3-5 shot in my book.

The final leg could go a bunch of ways. I’ll spread wide with four and feel pretty confident.

Race 11 – Start of $50,000 Pick Four

1,3,4,5,9,10,11 – 7 – 5,7 – 2,4 = $28 for a $1 ticket

The first leg is truly a crapshoot. Anything could happen and with the later legs looking more predictable on paper, I’ll use a bunch and hope for the best price.

(7) AMERICAN JEWEL jumps off the page in the second leg. Unless she has the trip from hell, she should win.

I believe that (7) ECONOMY TERROR is the best filly in leg three, but the post could be an issue. For that reason, (5) DARENA HANOVER gets my top call. This Ron Burke trainee could steal the race on the engine.

(2) THAT FRISKE FEELIN & (4) FEELIN LIKA WINNER seem like the fastest of these 2-year-olds on paper. One of them should win unless something crazy happens.

THURSDAY

 Race 6 - Start of $30,000 Pick Four

3,4,7,8 – 3,5 – 5 – 1,2,3,6 = $32 for a $1 ticket

There is certainly opportunity to get some value in the first leg. Morning line favorite (4) TURF BURNER has some pretty lines but hardly looks faster than some of the other contenders. (3) WUMIZOOMI has arguably been facing better and moves into the Virgil Morgan barn; adds Brennan, too. (7) ALLAMERICAN UNION & (8) BIG HARRY DEAL each merit a look despite their outside draws.

You can make a case for a quartet in the second split, but I’m going to draw the line at two on my main ticket. (3) MR I AM & (5) GUN SHOW seem to be a step faster than the rest when on their games.

Single time in leg three. If (5) DONTYOUFORGETIT minds his manners, and he usually does, it would be hard to see him losing..

Closing it out there appears to be four contenders and I’ll use them all. (1) JETSTREAM FRISKIE & (6) NOBLE TRICK deserve the edge if you are playing multiple tickets.

Race 11 - Start of $60,000 Pick Four

1,3,5 – 1,3,4,5,6,9 – 3,4 – 1,7 = $72 for a $1 ticket

There are two logical horses in the eleventh race – (5) FUSION MAN & (3) PRAYER SESSION. In addition, we have the crazy erratic (1) ONE IN A MILLION, who is as fast as the others but always breaks. Sometimes horses improve on this surface. He might be worth including.

The second leg features a tough to figure 10-horse field. I’m using a bunch and hoping for a longshot.

None of the horses in race 13 are sharper than (4) BOLT THE DUER. He gets the respect and top billing, but you have to include (3) MICHAELS POWER because he could easily steal this on the engine. I like (1) ESCAPE THE NEWS to get a piece at a price but not on the win end.

The last leg of this rich guarantee pits the top 3-year-old in the country, (7) A ROCKNROLL DANCE versus (1) SWEET LOU. Both connections have certainly been aiming for a big effort in this spot. Having seen them both compete throughout the year, I wouldn’t be shocked to see a grind it out effort from A Rocknroll Dance with the hopes of possibly winning heat one but definitely wearing them down in the second and third heats. This horse has guts.

Race 13 – Start of $25,000 Pick Three

3,4 – 1,7 – 1,2,3,10 = $16 for a $1 ticket

Good luck at Delaware!