Mike Watchmaker

Good morning from Pimlico on Preakness Day. It will be a touch warmer here today than yesterday, with a little more thin high overcast, but perfect conditions nonetheless. It will be interesting to see if the main track yields the same slow times that it did on Friday. We have only two opportunities to find out before the main crush of stakes begin around 1:50 pm, as the second and fourth races, both 1 1-16 mile events, are the only main track races until then. I will check back in with some thoughts from time to time throughout the day. Good luck today.  

Greetings from Pimlico on a gorgeous Blacked Eyed Susan/Pimlico Special Friday.

Hansen’s withdrawal this morning (Monday) from the Preakness, following the defection of Trinniberg a couple of days earlier, means that, unless something bizarre happens or we suddenly get a new shooter with lots of early speed, the pace in Saturday’s Preakness will be very different from the scorching pace we saw in the Kentucky Derby.

If you want to start searching for the Preakness winner, the best place to look is the Kentucky Derby. This is not just a feeling or a suspicion. The numbers strongly back this up. In looking back at the last 15 Preaknesses, from 1997 through 2011, only three, or just 20%, were won by horses who did not start in the Kentucky Derby. Those winners were Rachel Alexandra in 2009, Bernardini in 2006, and Red Bullet in 2000.

Happy Derby Day from Churchill Downs.