Mike Watchmaker

If you want to start searching for the Preakness winner, the best place to look is the Kentucky Derby. This is not just a feeling or a suspicion. The numbers strongly back this up. In looking back at the last 15 Preaknesses, from 1997 through 2011, only three, or just 20%, were won by horses who did not start in the Kentucky Derby. Those winners were Rachel Alexandra in 2009, Bernardini in 2006, and Red Bullet in 2000.

Happy Derby Day from Churchill Downs.

Hello from Churchill Downs on Kentucky Oaks Day, where it is a sultry morning more befitting August in Miami. Local weather forecasters do think there is a reasonably good chance for afternoon storms, which I guess also means there is a reasonably good chance we might escape a shower. The point is, keep an eye on the weather, especially for the impact it might have on multi-race exotics wagers. Track conditions could change quickly. I’ll be back from time to time during the day with thoughts on the stakes and on how the track might be playing. See you later.

It’s difficult getting a word in about anything other than the Kentucky Derby right now, especially with the big day less than a week away. But To Honor and Serve’s victory in the Westchester at Belmont and Endorsement’s win in the Texas Mile at Lone Star were performances Saturday that shouldn’t be allowed to fall through the cracks.

While there has been a lot of discussion over what many feel will be a fast pace in the Kentucky Derby, the Kentucky Oaks seems like it has an even better chance for a hot, potentially destructive pace scenario. An analysis of the 16 fillies listed by Churchill Downs as candidates for the Oaks through Tuesday suggests that they can almost be broken into two distinct groups in terms of predominant running style demonstrated to date. Let’s take a look: Speed/Front Runners