08/06/2009 12:30PM

Day 8: 8/6/09

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1:30 pm: Not many 2-year-olds of 2001 are still racing, but one of them won a stakes race today in the first at Saratoga: Mixed Up, the 10-year-old Carnivalay gelding who successfully defended his title in the A. P.Smithwick Memorial for steeplechasers.To do so, Mixed Up had to rally strongly in the final yards to nip an even older guy: the 11-year-old Roanoke gelding Preemptive Strike, who led every step of the way except the last one. The ages of the six Smithwick runners were 6, 8, 8, 9, 10 and 11, an average of 8.7.

Here are Mixed Up's lifetime pp's:


Mixedup

Fast and firm at Saratoga, damp and rainy down here on Long Island. Back later to play the late pick-4.



4:05 pm: Here's the play for the late pick-4, which starts in about 15 minutes:

 080809lp4

The thinking:

The first leg, a grass route for 2-year-olds, is pretty much of a guessing game. The good news is that with four A's, two B's and three C's in a field of nine, I'll be alive for at least half an hour.

I honestly think Driven by Success is close to a cinch in leg 2, the Morrissey Stakes, and I'd be surprised if he's as high as his 1-1 morning line. Driven by Success has been dueling for the lead in races such as the Met Mile and the Tom Fool and drops back to statebred company at a comfortable 6.5f distance. He's singled on over 90 percent of my play.

The third and fourth legs are tricky turf sprints, but at least half the field in each looks hopeless, so I split up the contenders in each between A's and B's in order of my preference. This is a sequence where I'll step on the all-A ticket hard, the 3A/1B tickets about half as much, and go for dollar partwheels on the 3A/1C and 1A/3B tickets.


4:35 pm: I'm not so good at guessing games. Scottketh'skitten, Ramsey/Maker third-time starter who showed nothing on poly or dirt, woke up bigtime on grass at 12-1. Like I said, I'm alive for at least half an hour...but down to a pathetic 1x2x2.


5:45 pm: Speaking of Mixed Up, apologies for the confusion over the trainers in the Morrissey that appeared here briefly. I caught the wrong license plates, but the point was that Dr. W pushed 2-5 favorite Driven by Success through insane suicide-mission fractions, which seemed an impossible way for Dr. W to be trying to win the race as opposed to setting things up for his uncoupled entrymate, Premium Wine, who failed to fire and finished fourth, beating only the spent and exhausted Dr. W as Law Enforcement rallied from 14 lengths back to beat the softened-up Driven by Success.

Thanks to all those of you who wrote in so quickly to point out my mixedupedness. Who says there are no editors in the blogosphere? I blame the brainlapse on four days downstate without a Hattie's fried-chicken sandwich.

No live pick-6 tickets into the finale, even with 5-2 Strong Impact winning the 9th, so there's a $42,547 carryover into Friday's card.

p ensign More than 1 year ago
thanks for the heads up on the Dan concert, although I don't believe there is really a bad Dan song - will definitely go with Royal Scam here in LA... rooting for a double C/O for saturday!
Stefan More than 1 year ago
Not to take everybody's attention from "the Spa," but did anyone else notice that there are Pick 4 AND Pick 5 carryovers at Monmouth today?? I knew there was a reason I thought about grabbing a Form and calling in sick today. The Pick 4 carryover goes into the pool for races 2-5. And there's another Pick 4 pool in races 6-9. The Pick 5 starts with race 5. What are the odds of a Pick 4 triple carryover? Probably about the same as me hitting any Pick 6, I think.
Barry More than 1 year ago
Dont ignore that Maiden, Go Ask Alex in the 8/7 feature at Del Mar. She appears to have one of the best Pedigrees in the race and she is stretching out. Definite value in the Supers.
Don Reed More than 1 year ago
Here We Go Again. Fortunately, Friday promises to be a crystalline, perfect day at Monmouth - one of those one or two days a year when you can feel what it was like to have a golden summer way back when. Time is suspended in the glow of the imagination. And as for the Mets: Next Step (No Pun Intended): Lobby - oops, wrong word - the Mets to set up a "DugCam." For $450 a seat, the least we can do for our fans is to provide instant replays after Mets players take a header into the least-significant area of their dugout, their bat rack.
George Quinn More than 1 year ago
arcsatats, I went to the Breeders Cup in 2003 at Arlington and besides being 42 degrees, It was fantastic. I agree with you, it is one beautiful plant. First class. We stayed downtown and the train took us right to the track. Only glitch was they ran out of hot chocolate after the 4th race. Hat's off to Arlington, Great experience. George in Tampa
bochalls More than 1 year ago
Pluto came out sporting front wraps and that was all I needed to see...pass. Are all jumpers geldings?...and for the obvious reason (clearing the hurdles!)? Steve, can presious Passion do it again? I await your next blog as it will surely speak of him....Richie Schosberg is live!
jed3 More than 1 year ago
Arcstats--great comments on Arlington. Was there for the BC a few years back and it was great-even though the weather sucked.
spectacularbid More than 1 year ago
the other night i bet a pick 3 at charles town because i didn't like the favorite in the first leg. about 1 minute to post my horse scratched. i assumed that my bet was void. it turns out that i was given the favorite that i didn't like to begin with. i called and was told that in pa and wv if your horse is scratched in the first leg of a pick 3 or pick 4 that you get the favorite. i was unable to find the rule online.
Arcstats More than 1 year ago
A comment on this weeks column. While the unintended consequences of 30 years of international buyers at the top-line yearling sales has weakened the turf breed in the US, the Euro turf runners have been superior to their American counterparts for decades. When the Washington DC International was run at Laurel back in the 50's - 70's, the favorites were usually the European horses, especially the French entrants. They didn't always win the race, but they were always well respected. Speaking of Arlington, I was there for the first time last week. After 3 days, I realized this is the best physical racing facility in the country. From the tiered track apron to the simulcast restaurant/bar directly behind the backstretch, everything about the place is designed for the patron to have an enjoyable and comfortable afternoon. And here's the cool part - people go there. I was there Wed - Fri and there were more people in attendance on those weekdays than other major tracks can draw on a weekend. While they have the same racing problems as other tracks (plastic track, questionable trainers, etc), it sure was a fun place to spend an afternoon. And the price gouging was light compared to other sporting venues of today - a 16oz can of Heineken was only $6.
Don Reed More than 1 year ago
PBS Carl Sagan voice-over: "Wrong-Way Spiral Highlights, at 11." Planets Aligned in the Hops was flat outrun by a 10-year old, an 11-year old, and John McCain. And the astronomers who had successfully lobbied for our outermost planet to be downgraded (to Standardbred status?) must have been gratified to learn that Pluto was pulled up (DNF as the favorite in the 4th). I'm beginning to think I had something to do with the Hubbell Telescope-NASA spacecraft being blasted off into space a decade ago - with the lens caps still on the cameras. Fortunately, Tim nailed the post-card saver: Chez Wufs, in Galaxy Isle-10!