09/03/2009 11:49AM

Day 32: 9/3/09



11:50 am: It's an all-filly and almost-all-turf $209k double-carryover at Saratoga today,with race 5-10 all for fillies and mares, the last five of them on the grass. In all, today's 10-race card includes eight races for fillies and mares and seven on the grass, including the opening-race steeplechase.

It's fast, firm and 75 degrees at the Spa today. There are three $70k stakes on the card -- the Paul Fout steeplechase, the P. G. Johnson for 2-year-old turf filies and the Riskaverse for 3-year-old turf fillies -- and an unusually high-priced maiden-claimer: The seven 2-year-old fillies in race 2, three of them first-timers, are in for a $150,000 claiming tag. Six of the seven were sold at public auction, at prices ranging from $7,500 to $130,000. If you can get a short price that there will be no claims, take it.


1:45 pm: No 4150k claims in the 2nd, a romp for second-timer Speckledbird at $4.30. The point of the race was, I think, to accomplish precisely what commenter Walt P. discusses below: A sort of B-level maiden-special race that's not going to attract high-priced purchases. That's illustrated on today's card: The 4150k maiden-claimer carried a purse of $44,000 and drew six horses who sold for $130k or less. The fifth race, a straight MSW for 2-year-old fillies, is worth $55,000 and has entrants who sold for $1 million, $600k, $360k, $350k and $225k. 

3:30 pm: Out after one leg. I would have had to hit the all button to use 21-1 Dattt Echo. I have no idea why Capitalism at Risk was the favorite in all the multirace willpays over Stormandaprayer, who I leaned on heavily and thought I was in good shape with turning for home, but Dattt's Echo prevailed in seeming contradiction to her previous form. Oh well.

Triple carryover? I'll take even-money. It's not like this was an easy sequence. Here, for the record, was the already-dead play:


(Total: $1,256. $1,024 for the all-A's-and-B's ticket and 5 backups costing  $96, $32, $32, $48 and $24.)

4:30 pm: Would you take even-money on a triple-carryover now? After Crossfirehurricane just took the 7th at 42-1, I like our chances. The pick-3 of the first three legs paid $14,569 for $2.

I'm happy for all of you who thought 21-1 Dattt's Echo was so haveable. Why did I toss her? She'd stopped badly in both of her starts, finished behind Happy Week last time out, had a negative rider switch, and figured to be part of a very hot pace involving others who had both run faster earlier and survived duels better. Sorry, but I wouldn't have liked her at 42-1.

If there's a carryover, it will be more than $650k, according to NYRA. And you get an extra 90 minutes to study, since first post Friday is 2:30 p.m.

5:40 pm: It's official: Triple carryover of $656,442

By the way, that was a very nice turf debut by Silver Edition winning the Riskaverse at 14-1, but I don't think she really ran the fractions posted of 23.59, 47.20, 1:12.38 and 1:34.17. That would mean she ran her fourth quarter in 21.79. I find the splits in these one-mile races on the Saratoga inner turf often strain credulity.

Get to work. I haven't even looked at Friday yet, but two good handicappers I know both said it's "impossible." We shall see.

bobm toga More than 1 year ago
dont usually play pk 6 but will take a shot today.. here is prelim list of my top horse in each race.. 4th.. positive pitch is top selection. 2nd time brown and rough trip first out.. (6-1) 5th.. valtrus forced way wide early and flattened out drops looking for win (3-1) 6th.. bretton woods started slow and close well at 5f. weaver great at moving to turf, plus get other part of entry to boot (5-1) 7th.. cant separate leamington (6-1) and belle allure (4-1). 2 top turf trainers . figure one of them will win. 8th.. looking to single rice horse thoroughly holy. with the drop and the title on the line this is her best shot for a w today.. (3-1) 9th.. pegasian has a shot here in wide open last race at nice price (8-1) like garcia getting on and is closer in long race where noone has gone the distance. also cant keep quiet on the tee out with clemente. i doubt i will put more than $100 or so in so will have to hit with at least 4 of these guys to be in the mix.. good luck to all..
Dehere is closing like a rocket! More than 1 year ago
Tomorrow's card does indeed look very tough - tougher even than today's. I am thinking that sitting out while rooting for a quadruple carryover and then using the free Rachel Alexandra square on Saturday is the way to go.
callmetony More than 1 year ago
i'm sitting out today also .... Getting ready for last big weekend . you'd need to use major bucks just to get through the 1st RACE
Stephen Taylor More than 1 year ago
Steve- Arlington actually has a 10K pick 4 carry-over for the early pick four today. (I think they paid 25% of the pool to 3 of 4 and the other 75% carrys) I got in on it for a few bucks
Rich More than 1 year ago
Oh by the way, Steve, you technically only get an extra hour to study. Yesterday's Pick-6 pool closed at approximately 3:09. Today's Pick-6 pool will be closing at approximately 4:07, since there's only 9 races carded.
Matt Harper More than 1 year ago
There is NO free bingo square about RA on Saturday. A 3 year-old filly beating older males for the first time ever in a grade 1 in N.Y. and you are going to take 2-5 on that? No thanks. The play is the late pick 4, beating RA!!!
bochalls More than 1 year ago
Geez, would ya lay off our pal/guru Steve over not having Dattt Echo? I've got your back Crist. We all miss some. If the admonishing is too much for ya Steve just call...we'll talk. How bout old reliable George Weaver doing it again at the Spa? Ten wins. Only difference this year is that the public has caught on big time. Avg winner paying about $9.50 compared to around $14-$17 for the last few years. Touted Duggan as a nice value trainer before the meet. He's winless.
Pete from the Thumb More than 1 year ago
JC's Scooter: Keep it down about Oedipus O'Neal in the 9th!! Hahah, seriously though, I agree, 20-1 seems like a big overlay. Not that lightly raced horses like Clement's look terrible in here, but a $17 difference between the two seems odd, and likely won't be the case at post-time. Actually, it seems like the highest prices on the ML are the most intriguing in this race. If Oedipus - a 7-time winner in this N1X affair - is still a fair price come post time, I think he's definitely worth taking a shot on. Especially given that, as you said, his firm turf form isn't horrible, and he's coming off that win two weeks ago. Mainly though, I think he'll just have the best shot at getting all 11 furlongs here. Eleven furlongs - that's a lotta furlongs!!
Walt P. More than 1 year ago
Why does NYRA even bother with a $150,000 maiden claimer? It's essentially a maiden special except the trainers don't have to worry about facing any monsters as a rule. Perhaps NYRA should take a page from Woodbine and card what is called there a "B" maiden special weight level, which would carry a significantly lower purse than a regular maiden special (in Woodbine's case, a "B" maiden special carries a purse of $36,000 (Canadian) going short as opposed to $60,000 (Canadian) going short for a regular maiden special). Such at NYRA could carry a purse of about 60-70% of a regular maiden special weight race. Just a thought.
fort marcy More than 1 year ago
Good luck to all tomorrow. Fantastic card, tough but it should be with huge pots to shoot at. For the few who have critizied Saratoga, Friday and Saturday's cards should be enticing to any one who loves to play the ponies. As for Rachel, of course she can be beaten, but man the string she has rolled is impressive to say the least. I didn't see Ruffian until her demise, but any one from that era claims she was a once in a generation filly. Indeed, we are seeing another, Go for Wand and Relaxing were my two favorite females, but if Rachel wins again, wow! To the pick 6, is anyone confident on any singles, man I sure don't see one, and for a pick 6, I always have 2. Perhaps, I need a couple of 5 hour energy shots and try to tackle this again.