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Day 31: 8/27/08
3:05 pm: Bear with me: I'm moving a little slowly today. In fact, I'm technically HWI -- handicapping while intoxicated, or HWO, handicapping while opiated. Woke up with so sore a neck I can't turn my head without wincing, and when Motrin and a hot shower didn't help, I reached for the Vicodin left over from my most recent bout of dental work. Horseplaying and a fuzzy head are a bad cocktail, but I did most of the work late last night and haven't had any pharmacologically-induced new insights I'm going to regret. The world seems a beautiful and painless place at the moment so I'm just putting in my $1200 carryover play and enjoying the lovely summer day:
3:30 pm: Decent start, as the better-priced A, Majestic Blue ($8.40) nipped lone B Daimons Glory at the wire. This was a pure board-watching ranking of the six firsters in the seven-horse field: Mayor Marv(Pegram/Baffert) and Majestic Blue (Darley/McLaughlin/$675k 2yo-in-training) were the 1-2 choices in the double, pick-3 and pick-4 pools and ended up the win-pool favorites at 9-5 and 3-1. Majestic Blue, a Forestry colt who ran the 5.5f in 1:04.24, gave McLaughlin a 14-13 lead over fellow former Lukas assistant Pletcher in the trainer standings.
I'm leaning on Saratoga's new leading trainer again in the upcoming 6th, where his entry of dropdowns Stream of Gold and Leo just opened at 4-5. You normally are supposed to be skeptical of a recently graded-stakes placed runner dropping in for $60k, but Stream of Gold is 7 now and the Maktoums have plenty of more promising runners that need stalls. My thinking is that they'd be thrilled to win the race and lose the horse.
Lots of guessing today. In the buried 7th, for example, where nine juvenile statebred fillies all are trying turf for the first time, I took the two big pedigrees (one out of Adorahy, the other out of Plenty of Grace) and crossed my fingers. I wouldn't be shocked to run 8-9.
4:30 pm: They ran 1-7, not 8-9, with Tom Bush firster Our Golden Dream ($5.70) taking all the late money and winning easily. Desormeaux wisely turned her loose early, moving from 6th to 1st midway down the backstretch after a painfully slow opening half of 51.13. He let the others come to Our Golden Dream (a $265k yearling by Medaglia d'Oro-Adorahy) around the turn, then let her open up again and she was home free.
One race earlier, Stream of Gold trailed the field through slow fractions, then remembered who he was through the stretch and blew the field away, making up 7 1/2 lengths into an already fast final 5/16ths of 28.67, if the fractions can be believed. The Ramseys/Maker took the winner from Zabeel/McLaughlin for $60k
and will probably have some fun with him.
So it's either 3,4,7,9/4,6/2,4,5,7,9 or 3,7,9/2,3,5/2,9 the rest of the way. The first-half pick-3 only paid $42.00, but it beats being dead.
5:00 pm: My jaw is still on the floor after watching 22-1 Cagey Girl waltz to a font-running victory in the $80k Mollie Wilmot Stakes, laying down (alleged) fractions of 24.75, 49.29, and 1:13.34 that allowed her to sprint home in 22.67 when the rest of the riders finally woke up. My one price, Nedjma, of course ran second at 12-1, while the 1-2-3 finishers from the Yaddo 17 days ago were all off the board, prompting a $16k super in a nine-horse field.
Cagey Girl was 22-1 when she won here July 28 against N2x statebreds, and I still don't see how you could use her without hitting the all button. She could have been 100-1 in the pick-6, and we could easily be looking at a double-carry if anything unexpected happens in the final two legs. Might be time to start looking at that steeplechase.
5:45 pm: Looks as if a few people liked Cagey Girl: The five most logical horses in the finale are covered in the pick-6, even after Yield Bogey posted a mild upset at $17.60 in the 9th, bulling his way to victory under a determined Jean-Luc Samyn.
5,7,9: $58,020 (4 winners)
2,4: $77,360 (3 winners)
The smallest pick-4 is $20k to the #5.
6:00 pm: Y'all were right about my premature congrats to Nassau OTB for delaying the Italian cooking (tonight it's fish heads) show until the finale at Saratoga. The old switcheroo at precisely 6:00 pm. Flipped over to TVG, where it's not being shown live since there are three minutes to post for the 3rd at Del Mar.
6:15 pm: Unflagging ($17.60), a 30-1 winner of his July 28 debut (same day Cagey Girl also won on the inner), made it 2-for-2 with a front-running victory in the nightcap. Weird to see the pick-6 pay only $57k and the pick-4 $32k, but when you're talking about just a handful of winners, such anomalies occur. At least now we only have to worry about that jump race in the late pick-3 and pick-4 tomorrow.
I also hit the late pick 4, but I did use the all button in the Cagey Girl race, I figured she would be on top for a little bit, but she packed it in against 40k claimers and only beat an entry allowance field, great ride from Luzzi.I did hate the fact that NYRA took 4 grand off the top, but at least I'm only stuck about $6k for the meet....WHEW. Time to work on the Del-Mar pick 6 for tomorrow or today.
Larry_Thiel In regards to -$192.80 for the Spa meet, help is on it way. Just opened my stable mail, string along with me and place a fiver on the nose of Chalook at at least 40-1 in Fridays last race @ the Spa. After the race you should be in the plus coloumn. As I'm am stuck more than a few more rubles than you, I will be wagering in the area of a C-note one this one (including exotics). I'd love to come up with a solid play in the first half of the late DD, I could cut my wager down to about 10 bucks. If I am alive to him in late double I will dance with him in all positions in the dime super. If he happens to miss I would give him one more chance on the green at Belmont. This Horse should have had a W by now (could have shipped to Jersy or Boston to meet softer), but I think Owner trainer McManus wants prove he can get the W at the Spa. Steve you may want to make this one at least a B in your multi race wagers
The Worst Beat in the History of Dime Supers I'm done throwing up for now, so I have to redboard; I got DQ'd on a TRAINER'S OBJECTION in the 5th@Evangeline last night! The Bet I made is a cheap one, 5th@EVG: LMSP (all)(1,2,4)(3)(1,2,4)=$5.40.. They crossed the wire 11~2~3~4. The #11 is 33/1...the #2 is 9/1...the #3 is 18/1...& the #4,a paultry 6/1... the #4 & #9 made contact, no doubt, but the contact was minimal. The tote board glowed my magic numbers for a good 90 seconds..then the dreaded announcement; "Hold All Tickets...We have a claim of foul...by the TRAINER of the #9,who finished Fifth" How often have you seen a trainers claim of foul result in a DQ? ME Either!Well, 5 minutes after the inquiry was posted, I saw my first! Here's my TVG Wager History of the bet below: 8/27/08-9:07 PM- EC225 Evgline Downs-5-$0.10 SU1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12/1,2,4/3/1,2,4 -ONLINE-$5.40 ------Results, after DQ: 1st 11-Lil Initiative------- $69.80 $35.20 $17.00 2nd 2-Bitsy's Parade Day---------- $10.00 $7.20 3rd 3-Kipper Zak------------------------- -$11.40 4th 9-Adorable Prospect ---$1.00 EXACTA 11-2 $366.40 $2.00 QUINELLA 2-11 $248.00 $1.00 TRIFECTA 11-2-3 $6269.40 $1.00 SUPERFECTA 11-2-3-9 $206,774.20 My Question: WHO Cashed my Winning Dime Super? Can you find out where it was sold? Thanks for letting me vent! One hour 'til Saratoga first post...Bombs Away!
Steve, Was any reason given for the cancellation of the 6 in 60 Pick 6 at the 4 tracks. I had found the with the $1 minimum bet it was quite playable and had onw winner with an $8 ticket along with a few weeks of consos with small tickets. I doubt they hit the guarantee often but it will be missed mpm101
Steve , As a long time sufferer at the hands of the Cable OTB channel ....They stay on until 7pm on weekends ....
Steve, thanks for the blog. Am at Saratoga Public Library putting in my play for the Showdown. I am one of the last 10 that remain thank to not using Rewrite yesterday. Lucked out to the excess in the 9th. Wheew. Nice move by the guy selecting the scratch Irish Majesty and getting BOTH entrants. I shouldve read the fine print. Your thoughts on that? Caesar Beware today? Might lean on the Samyn in the 5th. Thank again for the blog. Come to toga every year and gotta get here to follow.
To Marty S - It seems to me that you are trying to"buy" the p4 by playing so many combinations. In my question to Steve, I asked if it seemed that the small ticket wins alot of the picks. I would suggest you dial down your betting and question whether you have a strong opinion on the races you are getting involved with. Also, you may want to step back and back off for a while, like a 30 day freshening. After this try betting single races instead of horizontal wagers, and then bet p3 instead of p4 where you can choose which sequence to bet into. I've been there. good luck - hang in there.
Sorry to post twice, but i think Leonine in R6 will run good today.
Hey Buffalo Joe...I hear ya man, I am just so fed up with TVG that every time I see their call letters I fly into a fit of rage. By the way, don't watch TVG today (or any day for that matter) because Del Mar has a P6 carryover and that is ALL THEY WILL COVER from the time they come on the air until it is over. Promo a pick six that starts in 6 hours instead of changes for SAR which starts in less then an hour...YEAH!..... I am a big fan of these minor SAR stakes races with names that change each year. Anybody remember the Rumpipumpy from last year? Yep, the Rumpipumpy- I did not make that up!
kchris very nice hit. and I like your logic on how you figured it . Now thats handicapping . I'm still shaking my head over how bad Rewrite and you go west girl were.