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Day 27: 8/28/09
12:25 pm: Fast, firm, sunny mild for Day 27 -- probably a cruel calm before the storms that are supposed to start rolling in later this afternoon. There's rain in the forecast for each of the 24 hours beginning around 4 p.m. today. There's a $37k pick-6 carryover into Bernard Baruch Day, with that G2 turf stakes scheduled to go as the 9th of 10 at 5:30 pm. Don't cut it too close betting the later races -- if the rains come sooner than later, they may accelerate the last few to get the track sealed overnight.
The sequence appears manageable today (famous last words), with Es Mia looking like everyone's single in the first leg and several other races featuring two or three clear standouts. I'll be getting involved, and if I don't get a play posted before the 5th, assume that I'm virtually singled to Es Mia with a couple of tiny C backups.
2:50 pm: I had such a clever little idea in the 4th race and it almost worked.
The last time these older statebred stakes routers met, R Clear Victory got away early from favored fellow speedball Future Prospect, and they ran 1-2 around the track giving the closers no chance. Today, according to my notion, Future Prospect would be sent after RCF early, a kamikaze duel would develop, and the deepest of the deep closers -- like 8-1 Dr. DFC and 20-1 Naughty New Yorker -- would come storming by them.
It unfolded to perfection. The two favorites went at it tooth and nail through wild fractions, opening a huge lead on the rest of the field, then began to wilt and here came the closers. It was a thing of beauty. Naughty New Yorker and Dr. D.F.C. were rolling up on the outside for a bazillion-dollar exacta I had a bazillion times.
One problem. Future Prospect didn't stop. He had every right to finish last or next-to-last, but he just kept going against all logic and reason and hung in there, holding off Naughty New Yorker by a neck with Dr. D.F.C. a nose back in third. It was an annoying reversal of fortune, but how mad can you be when a horse hangs in so gamely against you?
And at least my old friend Naughty New Yorker, who had run three bad ones to begin his 7-year-old campaign, finally inched over the $1 million mark in career earnings in his 49th career start:
On to the pick-6. Leaning heavily on 3-5 Es Mia in the opening leg.
3:20 pm: Oh well. Alive for five. No, 15-1 Triple Tax Exempt was not one of my two C's. Es Mia got a horrific ride but maybe wasn't firing anyway today, and I didn't get a whiff of any of the first three finishers. So much for this being a manageable card. Right now I'll say it's even-money we'll have a double-carryover into Travers Day.
3:50 pm: I'll root for commenter Seeking the Gold the rest of the way since my live ticket would have looked exactly the same as his in the last three legs if I'd used Triple Tax Exempt as a C: 2,5/1/7,9. First he's got to get through a single in Pearl of Valor, one of my three A's in the upcoming 7th, who opned a ridiculous 12-1.
I'll spread out a little more in the late pick-4, like so:
Today's pick-6 handle was $233,309. Take out the 26 percent vig, set aside a quarter of the remainder for consolations, and add yesterday's $37k carry, and a Travers Day double-carryover would start with around $165k in the kitty. With victories by Grasberg at 7-2 and Loxy Lady at 2-1, though, we probably need one more goofy winner to get it to carry again.
5:45 pm: Justenufhumor's victory in the baruch at 4-5 means there's just one uncovered horse -- the impossible-looking #1, Tokonama -- for a $167k carryover. Otherwise, it pays from $27k (No Detour, 6 winners) to $167k (Adventurous Plan, one winner.)
6:50 pm: No Detour took the finale, and the rain hasn't started yet. Track officials are hopeful that the worst will come down tonight while the track is sealed and that the system might move out by post time.
Speaking of which: Which greyhound below has the right idea about tomorrow morning?
It's Popeye, awake and alert, for "Talking Horses" at a special 10 a.m. start and first post at 11:30.
I recently came across your blog and have been reading along. I thought I would leave my first comment. I don't know what to say except that I have enjoyed reading. Nice blog. I will keep visiting this blog very often. Margaret http://lotterymegamillions.net
Hey, Steve.....wondering if you agree w/me re: Linda Rice as a very underrated NY trainer???
For those not in the Saratoga area -- it's been raining [not heavy, but not just a light, either] for the past four hours. Plan accordingly for the race card, as steady rain will diminish to scattered showers during the day.
OH OH a "dunce-cap LOCK" in the 6th!!! Picou , there is your single!
Hi Steve, I like your hounds! We have a Golden Ret (Benny) and took him with us to Saradoga (could be called for being super dog friendly) the weekend just before the season started. Anyway, have you had a chance to check out Dawgdom on Broadway (next to Putnam Wines)? On weekends, the owner keeps her 2 Greyhounds with her behind the counter. Brgds, Claude ps Our Edge in The Travers
I like that rant prozacjack, but who would the syndicates be taking the money from? Losing syndicates? I don't think there is such a thing, they all mint money with the help of computers, inside information, and assorted other intangibles. No, we need the small player throwing that $200 into the pot to make the tasty stew for the whales.
...MANAGEMENT should have absolutely NO concern about [the outcome of the pick-6].The small player has been getting KICKED in the ass for many years by MANAGEMENTS short sightedness.I would like to see management raise the MINIMUM to $5.00 or $6.00 and let the big ticket players go at it with less involvement from the small player.The pick-6 would soar to new heights, especially with MANAGEMENT making it all but impossible to hit by the small ticket players.Imagine the pick-6 carryover 25 MILLION with 3 of the races for maiden and maiden claimers with 14 horse fields in each, then add your "hurdles" then add a couple 7 furlong races. This game could rival the lottery and take a lot less money out of the POCKETS of the small bettors. And every once in a while it would be hit by the visiting grandmother playing the ages of her grand children.Grandmother hits the pick-6 at Saratoga for 53 million on a $ 5.00 ticket.I won't think Ill of you for NOT putting my letter on your blog,you have a good thing going for you, but I hope you see and care about the long term EFFECTS that MANAGEMENTS involvement or concern about the outcome of ANY race or races.This is NOT Las Vegas STYLE of gambling. And this game needs to RETURN to the thinking Man.If your going to manipulate the race cards to CATER to the "high Rollers" and syndicates make them REALLY pay for it. LOL
For the $1,000,000 Pick 4: I am assuming there will be good/soft turf! Race 9: AA-1 A-2 B-57 C-3 Race 10: A-24 Race 11: A-238 B-1 Race 12: AA-4 A-6 B-7 C-3
Derby Man: The "No Super Baruch" scenario is inexplicable (maybe Bernie didn't do his banking at the Dime Savings Bank). Steve: Any thoughts on why this rule exists? How could a "one-scratched, other runs for purse only" refund policy in a dime super race negatively impact NYRA's bottom line? Or is it an anti-fraud precaution? Andy S: The wise guys still haven't recovered from their legendary Derby pick, Saarland. And this Linda Rice ball of wax is getting to be bigger than Star Trek. FrankEIU: Finding a Hops race in a P6 means that Everyone Invested Unanimously (in the wrong horse) & will be attending the Washington Country Fair a lot earlier in the afternoon than originally intended. Tomorrow will be the anniversary of the "lightning, thunder and darkness" Travers (2004?), which also featured the unanticipated post-race parade of stuffy horse owners straggling back into the B&B at 7 p.m., looking as if they had fallen head-first into the Hudson. That was a sight to behold.
To follow up on the NY Turf Writers Cup, there is a nasty letter to the Editor concerning the fact the NY Turf Writers Cup was carded as the third: http://www.drf.com/news/article/106801.html