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Day 27: 8/22/08
3:30 pm: Another beautiful/fast/firm day at Saratoga, where only the third carryover in 26 days of racing demanded my involvement in the pick-6:
I found it a tough card to make my usual sort of multiple zigzag-tickets play, due to too many mains and not enough backups. After getting through the opening leg with one of my two "A singles" in the sequence, I now of course wish I'd spent more of my resources backing up the second one, but that's how it goes sometimes. I'm not thrilled about having channeled $1152 of my $1296 play through Mogul Man in the 6th, but I just didn't see anywhere else to do it.
4:00 pm: Ick. A photo between two of my B's went to 2-1 favorite Critical Cathy, obviously not the result I was looking for since I went six deep and relegated the fave to B status. This will amuse those of you who think me a slave to figs, but I just didn't like Critical Cathy despite her last race being 6 Beyer points higher than anyone else's: She got loose in a race where an odds-on favorite stumbled at the start and was moving up a rung in class facing more experienced veteran winners at the higher level.
So I'm left with a 1x5x2x4, effectively a $1296 win bet on Mogul Man, who just opened at 6-5. Oh well.
As for today's earlier fare:
Race 1: Thought this was a good spot to take a four-horse-box ex and tri shot against dropdown Globalization, 6-5 to negotiate nine furlongs. He tired late, just enough to produce a $107 exacta but held for third to foil a trifecta score. Oldham ($14.40), second-time DiPrima, had a career-best fig in his lone previous dirt start amid seven turf and poly tries. He swerved in at the sixteenth pole, tightening things up a little but was properly left to stand after an inquiry.
Race 2: Wafer-thin photo-finish between McPeek second-timer Dream Empress and Mott firster Dynaslew, and it ended the way Mott's 2-for-48 meet has been going: Dream Empress($6.90) by a nose.
Race 3: 1.65-1 Tight Storm beat 1.65-1 Tzipi by two lengths in this $25k filly claimer.
Race 4: Onoitsmymotherinlaw ($8.60), another Durkin favorite, wore down 8-5 Cocktail Attire in a long stretch drive. Cocktail Attire shot out to an early lead, seemed to repel the winner in midstretch, but couldn't quite shake her as the announcer added "Onoitsmymotherinlaw...just won't go away!"
Race 5: Dutrow second-timer Captain Sword ($4.40), far back early, was up just in time to catch tiring Knife and Fork by a length to keep the world alive in the opening leg of the pick-6 with $43k carryover. Knife and Fork was dq'd from second -- first takedown of the meet -- for clearly bothering third-place finisher Rock Key. Captain Sword, claimed by Dutrow from Schwartz/Hushion from his debut, was calimed from Dutrow by trainer Enrique Arroyo today.
4:45 pm: Double Carryover? Not if a friend of mine who used 41-1 Quick Comeback gets home the rest of the way with his live 2,3,8/5/1,2,5,6 ticket, in which I have a 5 percent interest. As for the tickets in which I have a 95 percent interest (we swapped 5 percents on similar investments), they're obviously dead with Mogul Man managing only a bad fifth behind three bombs and a second choice who combined for a $23k tri and $93k super. Quick Comeback's front-running victory was marred by a spectacular spill when Academy Royale and Cinder Cone went down on the backstretch but both horses and their riders appear to be okay.
5:15 pm:Okay, NOW we're looking good for that double-carry into Travers Day. Sunshine for Life ($30.60), sixth choice in a field of nine, made it back-to-back front-running grass winners from post 9, holding off late-running Viva La Flag. Sunshine For Life, a 4-year-old Giant's Causeway filly trained by Rick Schosberg, had been off the board in three previous N2x tries going shorter, but lasted going 9.5f after getting her first six furlongs in 1:12.16 on the suddenly dry and dusty Mellon course.
5:45 pm: Ginger Punch, who looked like she couldn't win down the backstretch, looked like she couldn't lose in midstretch, then looked like she couldn't win againa s the wire came up, bobed her head at just the right moment to nose out Lemon Drop Mom and win the G1 Personal Ensign in a thrilling finish.
The 5-year-old Stronach homebred, last year's champion older filly, is now 5 for 6 this season and 12 for 20 overall. The Personal Ensign was her third straight Grade 1 victory and sixth overall.
Looks like half the field is covered in the pick-6 in the finale. The will-pays are illegible on the monitors and indecipherable on the NYRA Rewards screen online, but it looks like there will be a six-digit payout if the 1,3,4,5 or 6 wins, and a carryover if it's the 2,7,8,9 or 10.
6:20 pm: By the slimmest of margins....no double-carry. Good Request just held off uncovered 20-1 Hidden Glance to complete a $106k pick-6. Guess we'll have to content ourselves tomorrow with 12 races and $30 million or so in fresh money.
I still haven't looked beyond the Travers, and everyone's telling me it's a bear of a card. Let's get to work.
This looks odd to me. Am I missing something ? Shakis won the Bernard Baruch last year when it was run on the Mellon turf course. He set a track record. This year, the Bernard Baruch will be run on the inner turf course. Shakis will run as defending champion. That makes Shakis the champion of a race where he set the track record, but he is not the track record holder as defending champion of the same race. What am I not seeing ? Very interesting indeed. One And One Eighth Miles On The Inner turf Track Record: (Criminologist - 1:45.61 - August 29, 2007) One And One Eighth Miles On The Turf Track Record: (Shakis (IRE) - 1:45.33 - August 25, 2007) http://www.ntra.com/content.aspx?id=27412&type=news Shadwell Stable's Shakis, cutting back to nine furlongs for trainer Kiaran McLaughlin, rode the hedge to victory in the $200,000 Bernard Baruch Handicap (gr. IIT), setting a record on the Mellon Turf Course in the process on Saturday.
Here are some links to various NY rules about running horses coupled or uncoupled for the same owner and/or trainer: http://www.racing.state.ny.us/about/thbred/Sec4025.1-4029.9.html http://www.dos.state.ny.us/info/register/2006/Nov22/pdfs/RuleReview.pdf http://www.racing.state.ny.us/about/proposed_rules/proposed.rules.intro.htm http://www.racing.state.ny.us/about/proposed_rules/Rule%20Text/CoupleRule.htm
I just finished "Exotic Betting", except for the Pick 6 chapter because it's over my budget. I loved the Math in the book, probabilities I should have been thinking of were accuratety displayed and explained. A suggestion, to distinquish between say A's, you could use subscripts. Thanks for sharing.
There's probably a better way of stating this, but here's an addition to a sentence I wrote about Shakis: That makes Shakis the champion of a race where he set the track record, but he is not the track record holder as defending champion of the same race - while he is still the track record holder from the race when he became the champion.
travers thoughts... my favorite was holy bull/concern.. what a race!!! as for today.. i am playing tale of ekati and cool coal man.. i refuse to play anybody who will not be 15-1 or better, considering 11 in the field and all close in ability.. good luck to all.
Ted: I wholly agree with you. I'm not at all opposed to running horses as 2yos, but because of the way the system works, the only horses that debut as 3yos or later are those that are inherently physically unsound. That said, the proposition that a horse should be racing when he's a 2yo to develop proper bone, muscle and skeletal structure does make sense to me.
hz hackenbush- I don't think DRF reporters would be welcomed by Frank Passero who is retired in Canada. For the record as a teenager in the late 50's early 60's I use to go riding at his horse farm in Ridgeway Ontario, about 10 miles from Buffalo,NY. While I've spoken to him many times over the years at various racetracks in Ca and the US. we are not what one consider buddies. But I would like to made a statement regarding his record, as I was at Gulfstream almost every day when his trainees set that remarkable record and in fact I, with about a dozen others from the Buffalo area are in one of the winning photos. This was Gulfstream before Stronach destroyed it. we were all hanging around the paddock area(outdoor bar), when Frank walked by after saddling what would be his 2nd winner that day, and we all wished him luck. He reconized us as being from Buffalo, and told us he thought he had a good shot, as the horse was dropping in company. He said make a bet and meet me in the winners circle for the picture, its going to be a Buffalo picture. Frank Passero got that record because he was not afraid to run his stock where they could win, not with any illegal substance.A US court cleared him of wong doing after a witch hunt... These horses ran no magical numbers, they were bread and butter claimers. He did not mystically move these horses up 20 or so BSF points as some trainers have done in the past. What he did was take horses he may have claimed for 20K and ran them for 10K. He did this all his life, his owners were OK with it. They were mostly big bettors and would make it up at the windows if they lost the horse. Frank once claimed a well bred race mare for $40K at WO and 6 weeks later had her in a race for 4,000 at Fort Erie, mine was one of 19 slips in the box for her that day, as she had residual value as a broodmare, in fact I believe the guy wo claimed her, still has her and has raced her foals.
Many of us waste no time frying the powers that be over card quality when we have to deal with a stinker. Turnabout's fair play. Tip of my cap to the racing office and NYRA for the Travers card. Short of a Breeders Cup it's hard to see how a better one could be drawn. As an aside, could someone explain how we go from not usable bog status to a semi-arid prairie in what - a few days? Maybe NYRA can think about raising the guarantee on the all stakes P4 for next years Belmont and Travers cards. The sequence seems to be bet way over the advertised number. Looking to get that canoe painted in Winstar white tomorrow. Luck to all on Saratoga's big day.
andyscoggin buffalo-joe says he talk 2 him the other day and that hes been busy with his business.
Andy- Keep up the good work. In regards to Flipper, as I reported a few days ago (in response to Virgin Queens inquiry) I have been in phone contact with our good friend. He is laying low during the Spa meet and will rejoin us at its conclusion, secret play and all. By the way I was perusing the results earlier and at WO, the flippers home track, there was $29,000+ super payout for a buck, or as Flipper would say a 20 center. Not bad almost 6K for a 20 cent bet no wonder he likes them.