08/24/2009 12:26PM

Day 24: 8/24/09

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1:25 pm: It's a warm and breezy fourth Monday at Saratoga, where races 1, 7 and 9 remain on the grass while the 4th and 6th have been moved to the main track after some overnight rain. Main track "good," turf "soft."

Lucyscribner

It's Travers Week, if you start your weeks with Monday, thought it feels more like the back end of a two-day Yaddo Festival: Starting with yesterday's eighth race, 7 of the last 12 races of Week 4 are for New York-bred fillies, including all three Sunday and Monday stakes: yesterday's Yaddo and today's Lucy Scribner and Union Avenue. (Yaddo is the artists' colony next to the track, which sits on Union Avenue. Lucy Skidmore Scribner was the founder of Skidmore College here.)

As for the Travers, the prospective field is now eight in the official absence of Rachel Alexandra, whose connections announced this morning she'll await a historic run against older males in the Woodward Sept. 5. The three Travers favorites are, by my count, the only 3-year-old males in training who have won Grade 1 dirt routes this year: Mine That Bird (Kentucky Derby), Quality Road (Florida Derby) and Summer Bird (Belmont Stakes.) Others considered likely are Kensei (Dwyer, Jim Dandy), Charitable Man (Peter Pan), Hold Me Back, Our Edge and Warrior's Reward.

As the week begins, I'm thinking that Quality Road will be the favorite in the 2-1/5-2 neighborhood, with Mine That Bird the second choice over Kensei and Summer Bird.


1:45 pm: A little early pick-4 action:

Sar082409ep4

(AAAA @ $2 = $72; CAAA @ $1 = $36, AACA @ $1 = $45; Total = $153)

The thinking:

Race 2: No idea why no-faster-than-anyone Synchronicity is favored; liked second-timer Tuscana before she was scratched 8/2, finds easier spot today.

Race 3: So and So looks like she oughta romp at 2-5.

Race 4: A complete scramble now that it's off the grass, and ML fave Linsalata has never raced on dirt. Took the four best dirt performers as A's, all others as C's.

Race 5: Pletcher/Dogwood dropdown Kickapoo towers over the field but has some character issues, so I also took the two who looked next fastest, including the intriguing surface-switcher Jed Greeley. 


2:50 pm: Double phew.

Phew #1: In race 3, So N So was best winning the Scribner but had to survive a jockey's objection and a stewards' inquiry, for dropping over in front of Mineralogist, to stay up at $2.50. Rooting interest aside, I think they made the right call because the incident was marginal and the outcome of the race was not affected by it.

Phew #2: In race 4, I was about to feel like a nitwit for having backed up to "all" as 6-5 favorite Skip Away Belle had a seemingly insurmountable lead with 100 yards to go, but Garcia somehow got 14-1 Lerman surface-switcher Privacy up to win by an inch. (Much grousing from Skip Away Belle fans after the race questioning Coa's possible overconfidence on the seemingly-home favorite, but the stewards told a reporter they were satisfied with the ride.) So, instead of being alive with $2 pick-4's in the $150-$500 range, I've got a buck of ones coming back $1154, $3746 or $2511.


3:20 pm: Kickapoo was just too good at 1-to-2, especially after being allowed to walk to the lead in 46.75 in a six-furlong race, but $1154 for $2 ($577 for $1 in my case) is not a bad pick-4 payoff for a sequence including $2.50 and $3.10 winners.

Oops, only a nine-race card today, which means it's only 26 minutes to the late pick-4.


3:55 pm: Like I always say, fool me seven times, shame on you, and fool me eight times, shame on me. In other words, I'm making all four-legged Linda Rice horses A's for the rest of this meet. even if they're fillies against colts like Hook Me Up ($7.80), who just wired and dusted a pretty decent field of statebred colts in the first leg of the late pick-4:


Sar082409lp4


I seem to have omitted current 2-1 favorite Dirge in the upcoming second leg. Dirge, a one-eyed 7-year-old gelding, is a lovely story but is taking a big step up in company in his second start off a two-year layoff.


5:05 pm: Huzzahs to Randy Moss, who advocated trying to beat 3-5 Dance Gal Dance with 10-1 Silvercup Baby in a post today on his new drf.com blog. Wish I had believed him enough to make Silvercup Baby an A instead of a B, but I'm not unhappy about having live $1 tickets to both my A's and B's in the finale. Here are the $2 payoffs:

2: $2,946; 3: $3,159; 4: $24,787; 5: $3,578; 7: $3,207.

And yes, my quintet includes the Linda Rice-trained firster, Conseated Lady (#2), who has opened as the 2-1 favorite in this 5.5f turf sprint. It also includes currently 28-1 Raging Meese (#4). He's trying a turf sprint for the first time but for what it's worth, his two other siblings to try the grass both won on it, including Meese Rocks, who won the turf-sprint nightcap at 15-1 here Aug. 9.


5:35 pm: Tight photo in the finale with 3-1 Goodandacceptable just nosing out 9-2 Todo K. No sweat for my little pick-4's or for whoever held the one live pick-6 ticket to both of them for $47k. And -- alert the media! -- the 5-2 Linda Rice firster was nowhere to be found.

New York Turf Writers' awards banquet tonight at 7:00 at the Saratoga National Golf Club -- tickets still available for $100 at the door if you had a good day and don't have any plans. There's an open bar, and it's the night before a welcome dark day.

paige More than 1 year ago
To Paul Stone: Many thanks for taking the tome and effort to answer my question. I do feel better/bettor. Hope you will be playing Saratoga this weekend. Don't know why I go in for the Thursday and Friday cards with 7 maidens and a hurdles: guess I just love the atmosphere. Off from Chicago at 6:00 AM tomorrow!
FunnySide More than 1 year ago
Grass, not sure what Steve liked but I liked 4 things. Yep bet actively in debut. Pretty good workout schedule being 5 and 6f. Blinkers On Out of the 7 starters 5 were multi race losers already and only one firster
Steven Crist More than 1 year ago
Grassland: Tuscana was pretty seriously bet for her off-the-turf debut; showed ability chasing strong fractions going long; was adding blinkers and turning back; and was meeting a seriously subpar field. Silver Charm, Toones: Price on Quality Road is now entirely dependent on whether MTB runs. If he doesn't, QR is definitely more like 7-5.
Grassland More than 1 year ago
Steve, just wondering what you liked about Tuscana on 8/2 (and Monday) coming off her poor debut at Belmont on May 10? Was it just that she was bet that day and facing a very weak field Monday?
george quinn More than 1 year ago
To Putting Green Where does it say that Linda Rice has to smile? I am a food and beverage director. I have to smile. You want to see her smile. Buy one of the photos for sale at the track photographer in the last 3 weeks of one of her winners circle photos. Then you will see her smile. George in Tampa
rawlawltd More than 1 year ago
I have to apologize to "ryan says" for my post yesterday. After the non-DQ, I actually went to the rules to see what is cause for a DQ. Unfortunately for all of us, the entire process is "in the opinion of the stewards" & IS based upon their belief as to whether or not "the jostling or altering of course" results in "altering the outcome" of the race. In addition, the stewards can find that a jockey DID foul another horse, take no action, but find that the rider was careless or intentional & fine or suspend him/her for the infraction. So, RYAN, you were right, but somehow I don't feel any better KNOWING the rules & how they are applied.
mike More than 1 year ago
"Huzzahs to Randy Moss, who advocated trying to beat 3-5 Dance Gal Dance with 10-1 Silvercup Baby in a post today on his new drf.com blog". Hi Steve, Huh?? Randy could not have been more wrong.Dance Gal Dance cleared quickly opened a lead and let loose late, all by herself. Looked like a short rest,high weight bounce for this always game filly. Talk about being right for the wrong reason. Mike
Paul Stone More than 1 year ago
Steve: I would like to provide some info for "Paige", who inquired as to the probable exacta payoffs for the Derby. I Tivo'd the TVG feed which showed the Exacta probables. Since I had an "interest" in Eric Fein's horse-he's a regular at the Plainview Race Palace-I took note of the probable payoffs the next day. Paige should be relieved to know that the exacta paid about $100 more for Pioneer than it would have for Musket. In this regard, many people are truly unaware that, generally speaking, exacta payoffs for hopeless longshots are much smaller than one would expect. The primary reason for such seeming inconsistency is that many non-handicappers tend to box these longshots without regard to their relative merits. For such people, racing is nothing more than the lottery, as a gambling enterprise.
ML/NJ More than 1 year ago
Am I wrong to be reminded of Buckpasser when thinking about Quality Road? Buckpasser won the biggest race in Florida in his day (the Flamingo) and then missed the TC due to injury. After that, he came back with a big sprint allowance win (on Belmont day). To be sure, he did have five intervening stakes wins before he got to the Travers, but he won that too.
Daniel Fink More than 1 year ago
Well said, Jealous, though Moss was right anyway. Does anyone watch races to verify their analytical opinion? In the Aug. 3rd race, Dance Girl Dance never was urged as hard (breaking 6 posts outside her rival Doreymefasollatido, as opposed to eyeballing Under Serviced out of the gate yesterday) as she was yesterday the first 6 or 7 strides to clear Under Serviced. Simply looking at the Aug 3rd chart suggests a comfortable pace that day without pace figs, which are misleading anyway (in my long visual study of pace, a quarter-mile is too far to gain insight from a timed fraction...I've seen a horse be hard used and record a slower fraction, be entered under identical conditions a week later, coast early and reel off fast fractions).