08/08/2010 2:44PM

Day 15: 8/8/10


SARATOGA SPRINGS -- Glad that today's 3rd at Saratoga wasn't later on the card, or I'd be out of the Pick-6. I couldn't have used Too Big to Fail ($50.50) without the aid of the all-button, but congrats to those who did. Nice recovery for Rick Violette, who one race earlier watched his 8-5 firster Read the Contract stop badly after bleeding.

The pick-6, which begins in race 5 with a $253k two-day carryover in the pot, starts with a firster-laden turf sprint but gets less murky as it goes on. I have to think that most people will be spreading early and narrowing late in the sequence. The featured G2 Honorable Miss and G1 Vanderbilt have fields of only 5 and 7 respectively, and the turf-sprint finale has a few who seem a cut above the rest.

How you play the two stakes hinges to some extent on your interpretation of the events of June 25 in Des Moines, where two six-furlong stakes were won in exceptionally fast time by horses who return at the same distance today. Secret Gypsy took the Saylorville in 1:08.28, earnning a 101 BSF that would make her tough in the Honorable Miss. Two races later, Majestic Perfection won the Iowa Sprint in a blistering 1:07.24, which translated to a stratospheric 117 Beyer that would win any sprint race in the world including the Vanderbilt.


3:30 pm: Here we go:


Phew. Didn't like second choice Big Bentley and made him a C and it looked like I'd be down to a thread after leg 1 as he took dead aim on favored "A" R Boy Bill with a furlong to go, but the chalk just held on in a desperate bob.

Played an "All A's and B's" main ticket ($1440) and five 5 A's/1 C backup tickets ($96, $144, $144, $48 and $288) for a total investment of $2,160.

Today's gross pool. on top of the $253k carryover, was $961,950. After 26 percent takeout, that leaves $711,843. Setting aside a quarter of that net for consos yields $533,882, added to the $253,084 carry, or a front-end payout of $786,966 if it's hit, or a $786k carryover if it isn't.


4:30 pm: Alive by only a thread (2,3/4,5/8) thanks to my mistakenly low opinion of Shehashighhopes in the 6th. Still don't get why she was only 7-2. On the brighter side, I still have no idea why La Cloche wasn't favored in the 7th, where she instead paid $11.40 as the third choice.

The early money thinks the Iowa form was legit: Secret Gypsy just opened as the 3-2 favorite in the Honorable Miss, though the multirace willpays suggest Warbling will be the public choice by post time.


5:03 pm: Sayonara pick-6, as 3-2 favorite Warbling completely missed the break and Secret Gypsy ($6.10) ran her Saratoga dirt record to 3-for-3 winning the Honorable Miss in 1:09.92. Hour Glass was second with Warbling third.

Secret Gypsy won her racing debu on August 16, 2007 at Saratoga, setting a track record and earning a 100 BSF, and won again here a year later.

So the Iowa form held up -- and Majestic Perfection just opened as the 1-2 favorite for the Vanderbilt.


5:45 pm: Majestic Perfection got a surprisingly easy lead and made the most of it, winning the G1 Vanderbilt  by daylight over Big Drama, Bribon and Gayego to complete a mirror image of Iowa-to-Saratoga form in today's two graded stakes: At Prairie Meadows on June 25th it was Secret Gypsy in 1:08.28 and Majestic Perfection in 1:07.24. Today it was Secret Gypsy in 1:09.82 and Majestic Perfection in 1:08.63.

The result stamped Majestic Perfection as the early favorite for the Breeders' Cup Sprint. The 4-year-old Harlan's Holiday colt, who sold for $370k as a 2-year-old to Satish Sanan's Padua Stable, did not make it to the races until this past January. After running third in his debut, he has reeled off five straight victories at five different tracks.

I'd tell you what the pick-6's are paying but the NYRA Rewards system is down for the first time at the meet. On the one quick glance I got at willpays, it was payfinaleat the rail to take the ing about $5k to favored Moonwalk Beauty.


6:15 pm: Moonwalk Beauty ($5.50) squeezed through at the rail to take the nightcap and complete a $4,955 Pick-6 for roughly 160 winners. Consos paid $65.

Tomorrow's nine-race card completes Week 3. The nominal feature is the $70k Waya Stakes at a mile and a half on the grass, which for some reason is being run as the 5th race. Scattered thunderstorms are in the local forecasts for the next 24 hours.

yuwipi More than 1 year ago
Jim - I desperately needed Sparky's Dream in the 7th to at least run second for triple action. I thought it got a little rough in there as well. Glad I'm not the only one who thinks things are getting a little crazy out there. Saw the NYRA recap show and the nice fellow who hosts it rolls through so fast there's not time to take a closer look at anything. Steve, today's finale must be the 10th time at this meet where there has been a NYSB race where the majority of the field has never run a Beyer that even approaches the lowest winning Beyer booked for the class and distance for the last decade. Bless them, but these horses are a ways beyond slow.
Mike Kratville More than 1 year ago
Wish the 3rd race had been part of the Pick 6...#3 came out of a key race and had great fractions....20-1 would have made a great start to the Pick 6 where I came up short with 5.
Figless More than 1 year ago
Once again there is a rash of gate incidents at this meet, surprised there is not more angst regarding the Werbling hold by the gate crew. Steve, please send an investigate journalist out to get some answers as to why this seems to occur at Saratoga more than downstate. Last year, NYRA claimed it was due to all the unfamiliar horses, but if that was the case this would happen on every Breeders Cup card.
Allen Klayman More than 1 year ago
Steve, I have a suggestion to make Formulator even better than it already is. There should be a way to mark a horse as an A, B, C or X directly from the PP's page, that way you the ticketmaker feature can create the tickets for you based on your selections. Any chance the programmers can or are working on that feature?
Mr. Milkshakes More than 1 year ago
Steve- Would appreciate your take on this sad horse racing story. Tuscan Evening, arguably the best turf female in this continent, dies of heart attack after workout. Too many racehorses die of these "heart attacks". Curious what you think is killing these horses. (It IS sad but I haven't heard any veterinarian or researcher say this is happening any more often than usual. -SC)
peewee More than 1 year ago
Looks like everyone was betting the wrong pool today. Check out the P5 at Monmouth which came in at $109,000 for a 50 cent base wager. while the Saratoga P6 paid $4955.
tucker More than 1 year ago
i was wondering why temecula creek (9th at saratoga) comes in at 4 pounds over. is this the jockey coming in overweight? seems like the horse was in over his head to begin with, 4 pounds does not help the situation. does the trainer have the right to take the jockey off?
KY Crusader 75 More than 1 year ago
Our syndicate hit the Pick 6 today using a $1,028 set of tickets. Of course we employed the "Crist Method" of A-B-C choices and hit on a ABBAAA sequence. We ere alive only to the #8 in the finale but were alive to five entries on our hedge Pick 4. We broke even on the Pick 4. Listening to Steve and Andy Talkin' Horses helped us refine our set of tickets. Thanks, as always, for your help, Steve.
Mikiebabes More than 1 year ago
What a great time for NYRA Rewards website to go down. I want to hedge a little in case I can't hit P6 or P4. Guess I'm stalled for now.
David G More than 1 year ago
Steve Did you play the late pk4 after your c in the 2nd leg thinned your play down?