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Daddy Nose Best, 3-year-olds to follow
Many folks remember DADDY NOSE BEST from the 2012 Triple Crown Trail.
After winning the El Camino Real Derby and Sunland Derby, Daddy Nose Best failed to fire in both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness (finishing 10th and 9th, respectively). The Derby began a string of eight consecutive losses, but it appears that trainer Steve Asmussen has turned Daddy Nose Best all the way around.
With his impressive victory in last weekend's Grade 3 Colonel E. R. Bradley Handicap at Fair Grounds, Daddy Nose Best has now won five of his last six races on turf. There didn't appear to be a ton of pace lined up for this year's Bradley, contested over a yielding turf course, and Daddy Nose Best, a one-run closer, was compromised by race and pace luck. Last and buried inside while STRING KING and ADIOS NARDO completed a half-mile in 51.02 and six furlongs in 1:15.58, Daddy Nose Best wheeled to the far outside turning into the long stretch. He spotted five pounds and almost five lengths to a sharp Adios Nardo in the final three-sixteenths of a mile, but roared home to get up by a neck. Expect Asmussen to place Daddy Nose Best in the Fair Grounds Handicap at Fair Grounds on February 22.
*Both VICAR'S IN TROUBLE and TANZANITE CAT earned 10 Kentucky Derby qualifying points for their victories in the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes, and Smarty Jones Stakes, respectively, but two other up-and-coming 3-year-olds also caught the eye. Let's take a closer peek.
INDIANAPOLIS (Medaglia d'Oro - Pretty 'n Smart, by Beau Genius)
Breeder: Turner Breeders, LLC
Owner: Mrs. John Magnier, Michael Tabor and Derrick Smith
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Auction: $490,000 Fasig-Tipton Select Yearling
Last Start: 1st San Pedro Stakes, January 20, 6 Furlongs, Santa Anita, 97 Beyer
DP = 6-9-9-2-0 (26) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.73
Bob Baffert's Kentucky Derby hopes were lessened when New Year's Day, the winner of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, was retired last month due to injury. But, Baffert always seems to have a deep and talented bench, and Indianapolis threw his hat into the Derby ring with a 97-Beyer win in the $75,000 San Pedro Stakes at Santa Anita on January 20.
Making his first start since a debut victory over the Betfair Hollywood Park cushion track on November 24, Indianapolis broke from post two and was sent away the odds-on favorite in the four-horse San Pedro. He took a light bump at the start before settling into a pace-tracking trip behind loose pacesetter Rockin Home through fractions of 21.80 and 44.97. Indianapolis attacked on the turn, struck the front turning for home and raced his final quarter in 23.83, throwing in a last eighth in 11.86 for good measure. He won by 4 1/4 lengths and completed the six furlongs in 1:08.80. Indianapolis paddles a bit with his left foreleg, but remained straight as a string in the stretch.
Indianapolis is by three-time Grade 1 route winner Medaglia d'Oro. Medaglia d'Oro prevailed at distances ranging from 6-10 furlongs and also finished second in the Belmont Stakes, two editions of the Breeders' Cup Classic, and the Dubai World Cup.
Medaglia d'Oro is the sire of North American Grade 1 dirt winners Rachel Alexandra, Plum Pretty, Champagne d'Oro, Warrior's Reward and Gabby's Golden Gal. Earlier this month, Medaglia d'Oro's son, 3-year-old Baratti, impressively won his maiden at Aqueduct with a 92 Beyer.
Sold for $490,000 as a yearling to the powerful Coolmore outfit, Indianapolis is out of the productive Pretty 'n Smart, a daughter of Beau Genius that has also foaled multiple Grade 3 sprint winner Heart Ashley and Grade 3 sprint winner Ashley's Kitty. On the track, Pretty 'n Smart won two of seven starts and finished third in the Grade 2 Railbird Stakes going seven furlongs on dirt at Hollywood Park. She is a half-sister to the long-winded Hostess, who took the Grade 3 Orchid Handicap at 12 furlongs on turf at Gulfstream.
Trainer Bob Baffert indicated that Indianapolis will now be placed squarely on the Triple Crown trail. It will be interesting to see how he fares around a distance of ground as Medaglia d'Oro's stamina mixes with the plethora of speed influences from the female family.
*TONALIST (Tapit - Settling Mist, by Pleasant Colony)
Breeder: Woodslane Farm
Owner: Robert S. Evans
Trainer: Christophe Clement
Auction: $195,000 (RNA) Fasig-Tipton Select Yearling
Last Start: 1st maiden special weight, January 18, 1 1/8 Miles, Gulfstream Park, 90 Beyer
DP = 5-13-14-1-1 (34) DI = 2.78 CD = 0.59
Unlike Indianapolis, Tonalist is a proven router. Making his second lifetime start, and first around two turns, following a fourth-place debut at Aqueduct on November 16, Tonalist was hustled from the advantageous inside post in a nine-furlong maiden at Gulfstream on Saturday. Jockey Joe Bravo maneuvered Tonalist off the rail on the first turn and the colt raced very wide throughout. He was caught five paths off the inside while making an early move entering the final bend and, for a moment, it appeared he was outpaced. His natural stamina kicked in during the stretch run, however, and he outfinished the runner-up with a final eighth of 12.87. Tonalist raced the distance in 1:50.21 and received a 90 Beyer.
Tonalist is by Tapit, winner of the Grade 1 Wood Memorial at nine furlongs. A star stallion, Tapit has sired North American Grade 1 dirt winners Hansen, Joyful Victory, Careless Jewel, Tapizar, Zazu, and Dance Card. Tonalist's 3-year-old son, Constitution, impressively won a maiden race at Gulfstream Park last week for trainer Todd Pletcher and will likely be pointed to graded stakes races.
Tonalist's dam, the Pleasant Colony mare Settling Mist, won once from nineteen lifetime starts. That victory came at nine furlongs over the Aqueduct inner track. She is a half-sister to Grade 3-placed sprinter The Bink (dam of multiple Grade 1 turf winner Riskaverse). The second dam, Toll Fee (by Topsider), was a stakes-winner at one mile, and is a half-sister to Grade 1 winners Plugged Nickle and Christiecat.
Tonalist is bred to run all day and acts like a true stayer. He lacks experience, but looms an intriguing possibility in graded stakes down the road for crafty trainer Christophe Clement.
Here are the top 25 WINNING Beyer Speed Figures (1/13/13 - 1/19/13):
1. LONG RIVER - 107 - Evening Attire Stakes - 1 1/16 Miles (Inner Dirt) - Aqueduct
2. RIBO BOBO - 105 - Sunshine Millions Sprint - 6 Furlongs - Gulfstream
3. FORDUBAI - 103 - Louisiana Handicap - 1 1/16 Miles - Fair Grounds
3. MUCHO MACHO MAN - 103 - Sunshine Millions Classic - 1 1/8 Miles - Gulfstream
3. TRIUMPH AND SONG - 103 - Spirit of Texas Stakes - 6 Furlongs - Sam Houston
6. SHAKIN IT UP - 101 - Strub Stakes (G2) - 1 1/16 Miles - Santa Anita
7. LONGHUNTER (GB) - 98 - OC20k/SAL16k - 1 Mile (Turf) - Gulfstream
7. WORK ALL WEEK - 98 - OC 62k/N$Y -N - 5 1/2 Furlongs - Oaklawn
9. LA VERDAD - 97 - OC 50k/N2X -N - 6 Furlongs (Inner Dirt) - Aqueduct
9. TENANGO - 97 - OC 50k/N2X -N - 6 Furlongs (Inner Dirt) - Aqueduct
9. VICAR'S IN TROUBLE - 97 - Lecomte Stakes (G3) - 1 Mile 70 Yards - Fair Grounds
12. DADDY NOSE BEST - 96 - Colonel E. R. Bradley Handicap (G3) - 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - Fair Grounds
12. MOONLIGHT SONG - 96 - Gold and Roses Stakes - 6 Furlongs (Inner Dirt) - Aqueduct
14. LEMON DROP DREAM - 95 - OC 17k/N1X -N - 6 Furlongs - Fair Grounds
14. POINT FINISH - 95 - Forego Stakes - 6 1/2 Furlongs (Polytrack) - Turfway
14. RHETORICAL - 94 - OC c-40k/N2X - 6 Furlongs - Oaklawn
17. EDEN PRAIRIE - 94 - Marie G. Krantz Memorial Handicap - 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - Gulfstream
17. RELOAD - 94 - OC 100k/N3X -N - 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - Gulfstream
17. SPELLBOUND - 94 - La Canada Stakes (G2) - 1 1/16 Miles - Santa Anita
17. STAR CHANNEL - 94 - Sunshine Millions Turf - 1 1/8 Miles (Turf) - Gulfstream
17. ZIVO - 94 - Whodam Stakes - 1 Mile (Inner Dirt) - Aqueduct
22. BRADESTER - 93 - OC 62k/N2X -N - 1 1/16 Miles - Gulfstream
22. RUNWAY READY - 93 - Alw 50000s - 5 Furlongs (Turf) - Gulfstream
22. TASHIR - 93 - Alw 21550N2L - 7 Furlongs - Calder
22. UNBRIDLED FOREVER - 93 - Silverbulletday Stakes - 1 Mile 70 Yards - Fair Grounds
*LONG RIVER's lifetime past performances are available at the bottom of this blog post.
*RHETORICAL was claimed for $40,000 by trainer Scott Becker from Chris Hartman.
This week's major Kentucky Derby prep is the Grade 2 Holy Bull Stakes from Gulfstream Park. It looks like a very contentious group and I'm interested in all of your opinions, especially thoughts on CONQUEST TITAN, who rallied boldly to win an allowance race over next-out stakes-winner GENERAL A ROD in his juvenile finale.
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We'll have our annual FormBlog Convention at Gulfstream Park the weekend of February 28. Our gracious hostess, Laura, has an update for us...
UPDATE on the DRF Formblog Convention!
The Convention is Feb. 28 - March 3 at GP Park. (Fri - Sun). We get a discount on rooms at Hampton Inn, across from the track. The price is $172/night (plus the dreaded $18 tax). To receive the correct rate, call the hotel directly (954-874-3006) and ask for the Gulfstream Park rate. If there's any difficulty, please email me at: email@example.com
As usual, we'll be given a suite overlooking the track with our own private balcony and betting terminals, trips to the paddock, a race named for our group and photo in the winner's circle. We'll also have plenty of swag from the BC and other fun stuff.
This is always a fantastic weekend so don't miss out! Come handicap with our Fearless Leader, Sheriff Dan Who! I can supply rides to/from the airport (about 10 minutes away), if needed. Check out this page for more info: http://www.ironmaidensthoroughbreds.com/Formblog.html
You can follow me on Twitter @DRF_DanIllman
Congrats to Mike A. for finishing first in last week's HandiGambling exercise.
Rick M's scoresheet is available at the bottom of this blog post.
This week's HandiGambling exercise will be Friday's tenth race from Gulfstream.
PAST PERFORMANCES ARE AVAILABLE AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS BLOG POST.
SR Vegas and Rick M. have graciously decided to streamline all of the HG rules in order to make them an easier read for everyone...
With so many new people attending Dan's Formblog we thought it would be a good time to update the Handigambling Guidelines and Rules as we go forward in 2014.
Let's remember WHY we began the HandiGambling races in the first place. The goal was to share ideas on why we like these horses and why we're betting them the way we are. We are not asking for a novel but if you could spare a sentence or two outlining your handicapping angles and thought processes about wagering, it would be appreciated.
- Please start your post with HG or HANDIGAMBLING to better recognize and find your entry.
- You have a mythical $100 to wager in whatever format you choose and that is available for that HG race.
Anyone going over the $100 limit will be disqualified.
- Post your WAGER and ANALYSIS to the blog WITH YOUR NAME/OR MONIKER AT THE END OF THE POST. Remember that posts may start as 'anonymous' or an 'alternate name'. You MUST sign yourself at the end (even if it is the same) This enables the scorekeeper to recognize you .
- (1) ONE ENTRY per person for the Handigambling contest. If you have multiple email addresses, use just ONE for contest purposes. Multiple entries will be cause for disqualification.
- Separate your analysis from the wager and use the horses # in your wager. Just like you would do in a real wager. No horse names.
-In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference. Dan reserves the right to approve or deny any entries.
- The winner will receive a "Monthly Enhanced 60-Card Past Performance Plan"
As an example :
The speed in this race goes to horses # 1, 4 ,6 ..Ennie , Meenie, and Mo
Since it's a sprint I don't see any closers catching them.. like # 9 Miney.
I think trainer Groucho with the #6 Mo has the best stats in this condition, route to sprint.. just a gut feeling at large odds ML 20-1
50$ Ex box 1-6
A MORE DETAILED ANALYSIS IS ALWAYS APPRECIATED !
REMEMBER, IF YOU ARE DECLARED THE WINNER OF THE HANDIGAMBLING EXERCISE; PLEASE CONTACT FORMBLOG@DRF.COM WITH YOUR DRF LOGIN AND PASSWORD IN ORDER TO ACCESS YOUR PRIZE PACKAGE.
ALSO, IF THE WINNER WOULD LIKE TO SELECT THE FOLLOWING WEEK'S RACE, PLEASE CONTACT FORMBLOG@DRF.COM NO LATER THAN THE FOLLOWING WEDNESDAY MORNING (A FRIDAY RACE IS MOST IDEAL).
Best of luck to all.
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|Copy of Formblog Gulfstream Dash Turf 1-17-14.xls||69.5 KB|
W - if you want to know who the contenders were look at the top 10 & the bottom 20 - I'm not sure I buy that . Can you explain more thoroughly ? If true that would make Hellmers & Sumja two of Fornatale's featured players no-hopers with 2 shots each, along with quite a few others that have had respectable finishes in the past. I doubt they were no-hopers they just had mediocre days instead of good or bad days. Even though I admit I don't consider myself a contest expert I doubt very seriously that the contenders for a contest can be predetermined with any accuracy. I'm still sticking with Bernard's idea that on any given day anybody can have a good day / days and take it. I would even go so far as to use MikeA's vernacular and say contests are a bit of a crapshoot . Also using Mike's vernacular, all or almost all of the players are "capable " of hitting the projected mark on their good day . Players form can turn on a dime very easily day to day in real life . If you go to the track everyday in real life sometimes you lose big and sometimes you win big , but most of the time its trading fishcakes up or down :) Trading fishcakes back and forth... until ... something happens... then trading fishcakes again ... then something happens. I'm pretty sure tournament players would experience similar patterns ? Somedays Fancy Feast :) - most days Fishcakes - somedays Surf & Turf ( and if your tastes run like Hellmers maybe one of Heidi Fleisch's employees on Surf & Turf days possibly ? : ) If I'm wrong about that show me the list of guys that are always on the board ? I'm from St. Louis :) Show me why the guy that finishes with zero had a better shot than the guy that finished 78th or 87th or 108th ? The middlers are one capper away from contention, The zero is 7or 8 cappers away, he's already been all but eliminated half way through and he is eliminated 3/4 of the way . How many cappers on avg. does the winner of the NHC get ? Some of us Formbloggers can be a pain in the neck asking a lot of questions W :) I think maybe one guy in the top 10 this year had ever been in the top 10 before ? I'm only guessing but I'd hazard a guess that equals one more than usual ? I really am only guessing this time. I'm not trying to be tricky :) So if somebody has answers on that subject then volunteer those up please :).... If not... can you get on that one SRV ?? :) :) Report back to the blog with your findings if you decide to accept this mission. lol . Just kiddin' Sharona unless you ... like for real.. like totally.. really want to totally find out for us totally ? :) Is there a hard knocker that hits the board at the NHC like clockwork ? Is there someone that is always there or thereabouts ? How many cappers do the winners need on avg ? When you finish that can you ... : ) Everybody that's been around this blog any length of time knows Alan is a good player. He qualifies for NHC just about every year. I'm pretty sure he said he's finished in the top 10 once ? If he qualifies 10 more years it might still be once. Or he might win it next year . Either way he'll still be a good player with the same punchers chance the other players have each time he qualifies. No better no worse IMO . It will just matter how magical a day/days he has. He was right there for a long time until he lost the magic just a little bit to fade to (7th ?? ) Everybody around here was posting go ALAN ! ALAN !! ALAN !!! for most of that tourney. Then near the end CHOK ! CHOK ! CHOK ! This year Alan turned his first two days of nothingness on a dime into a very good 3rd day. He was no better the 3rd day . He was just in a different zone. If that tournament was a one day tournament on that day Alan probably would have finished 2nd. He would have finished way ahead of Jose Arias on that day that's for sure. I think Arias might have had just a couple placers the last day ? ? If the 3rd day was the first day and today was the 2nd day and the HG was the first Mandatory on the 2nd day then Alan would have been kicking away with a capper in the first mandatory of the 2nd day :) Unless the guy that beat him by $5 had the capper too :( :( Which he probably wouldn't because he probably doesn't have "Downhill Madness" :) I'm pretty sure Alan has been diagnosed with Downhill Madness ? :) Anyway if anybody is thinking that's a lot of what ifs ... that's the point. Short spurts are always more volatile than long runs at the track. JJ
Bernard Downes .."Am I right in thinking no champion has ever repeated? .." Yes, you would be right. Many previous NHC champions qualify year after year after year , but have not taken the top prize. Maybe next year ? SR Vegas
w Your table sounds so cool ! Congratulations on making it to the NHC, and the fine showing of your tablemates. 4 into the top 50 is very impressive and a final table contestant . I'll wager that you all will be back again next year :) I heard from others (what you said) that the internet access was slow, and it was a bit frustrating to deal with. Perhaps things will improve next year. Ron Z Thanks for the audit link. I still can't find it on the ntra website. Uncle Steve LOL! Thank you for your recollections, it was a fun time and you are still my favorite Uncle. :) SR Vegas
Hi All. Personal reasons pushed me away, and have kept my away, from the blog. They are on my end, and I am basically "stuck" in them for the time being, so no comeback is coming anytime soon. :-( Thanks for the praise via Public Handicapper, though at this point... "I WASTE LONGSHOTS" I am going to have this tattooed across my chest at this rate, because I didn't play Susan's Express on Saturday (nor some of the other bombs I have liked this year). The stuff between my ears has been getting in the way an awful lot lately, especially this time of year. Anyway, thanks again. .10C P.S. Thank you SR Vegas for tipping me off to this. P.P.S. My play on PH is spotty because I tend to forget about it until it is too late most weeks. I wish I was lucky enough to pick and choose my spots, but usually, I just forget. :-p
Finally I can post again. Was getting red error message - try again later. MKB UPDATE: Two MKBs have been entered in the GR3 Tampa Bay Derby on Saturday: DICK W'S Cousin Stephen BLACKSEABASS' Harpoon Unfortunately it is not a points race, but guess what guys? If you win the Sam Davis, and then win the Tampa Bay Derby, and then win the Kentucky Derby, you will get a million dollar bonus. How's that? :) Good luck!!!! Annie
SR Vegas, Thanks for your workout info on our MKBs. My Matterhorn showed a remarkable upward speed in his latest. I guess he will be racing soon. I'm trying to get Todd to enter him in a points race. stuckinarizona
Annie, Perhaps I'll move to Minnesota!:) It's not getting any warmer here until Friday or Saturday. I just opened the front door to the postman, (I had to sign for a parcel) and now I'm wrapped in a blanket trying to recover. knm
Of course I meant "have already looked good at three". :) Annie
Remember the old days when the Derby winner was often one of the "dual qualifiers"? I know it happened several years in a row. But in recent history it has not worked. Anyway, just for the fun of it, let's see which MKBs were within 10 lbs. of the high weight on the Experimental Free Handicap and see if one of them wins the Derby. :) 126 RON ZUERCHER'S ill-fated New Year's Day 125 NANCY B'S Havana 125 DAVID M'S Shared Belief 124 SPARTAN TOM'S Honor Code 122 SR VEGAS' Strong Mandate 119 ANNE M'S Bond Holder 118 STARR D'S Bobby's Kitten 118 RICK'S Cairo Prince 118 PENN NATIONAL RICK'S Tamarando 117 NAR'S Dance With Fate 117 KEITH L (In care of Jeanne) We Miss Artie 117 SWEDE'S Wired Bryan 116 CALVIN CARTER'S Tapiture Of course, these were ratings at two. Some, like RICK'S Cairo Prince have already shown they look good at two, and many of them have not raced yet this year. Annie
Just weighing in on the "cheating" of games. When my K of C had a Las Vegas night they had a "Cinema Races" game that they rented. My father always ran it. I won a lot of money one night and he asked me how. It was easy, I would wait until the last possible moment and buy my ticket on the horse who had the least amount sold on the stack. The odds were determined by the number of tickets sold on a particular horse. Was I cheating? No, I was maximizing my odds by picking the one who paid the most. The races were totally random. As usual my father just starting shaking his head but deep down he was proud. He then would hide the stacks so that no one knew who the long shots would be.... but later told me that no one EVER looked at that angle. They just picked by name or number(the object of the game). I do the same at every Chinese auction and every other game of chance. I worked for a company years ago. Whenever they came out with a new policy all of the mangers(in the field) would call me and ask how to do the new program faster and smarter.... that is what I do for a living now(freelance). As Capt. Kirk said in Wrath of Khan 'I didn't cheat, I changed the conditions of the test".