03/06/2012 4:58PM

Comparing Wynn, Derby Future Wager Odds


Wynn Las Vegas’s latest future book Kentucky Derby odds are just out. I thought it would be interesting to compare Wynn’s Derby odds to the final Kentucky Derby Future Wager odds on the individual betting interests from Pool 2, which closed on Sunday.

Please keep in mind that the KDFW option of “All Other 3-year-olds,” which closed as the 3-1 favorite in Pool 2, is obviously not an option available in Vegas future book wagering, so this isn’t a direct apples to apples comparison. Still, it might be enlightening to see what two different betting audiences have to say about the Derby right now.

What follows are the individual betting interests in Pool 2, eliminating Out of Bounds, who was injured Monday and is out of the Triple Crown. The first column of odds is their KDFW closing Pool 2 odds, and the second is their up-to-date Wynn odds:

Alpha                                    18-1                       12-1

Battle Hardened               59-1                       35-1

Bodemeister                      29-1                       28-1

Castaway                             45-1                       35-1

Creative Cause                  17-1                       24-1

Dullahan                              26-1                       25-1

El Padrino                            12-1                       12-1

Empire Way                        37-1                       35-1

Fed Biz                                  22-1                       20-1

Gemologist                         23-1                       25-1

Hansen                                 9-1                          12-1

I’ll Have Another              22-1                       30-1

Liaison                                  39-1                       30-1

Mark Valeski                      38-1                       30-1

Midnight Transfer            73-1                       60-1

News Pending                   45-1                       50-1

Rousing Sermon               68-1                       45-1

Sabercat                              30-1                       18-1

Scatman                               97-1                       100-1

Secret Circle                       37-1                       22-1

Take Charge Indy             38-1                       45-1

Union Rags                         4-1                          4-1

Of the 22 Derby aspirants listed above, 14 have significant odds differences between the KDFW and Wynn. What’s surprising, when you consider how much of a percentage of the pool the KDFW’s “All other 3-year-olds” option takes, is that not every one of those 14 offer higher odds in the KDFW. But five of these 14 horses can be had at higher odds at Wynn, and depending on how you feel about these horses, that could represent significant betting value.

What is even more surprising is that some of these five are legitimately “live” Derby candidates. The five with higher odds at Wynn right now are Creative Cause, Hansen, I’ll Have Another, News Pending, and Take Charge Indy.