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Wynn Las Vegas’s latest future book Kentucky Derby odds are just out. I thought it would be interesting to compare Wynn’s Derby odds to the final Kentucky Derby Future Wager odds on the individual betting interests from Pool 2, which closed on Sunday.
Please keep in mind that the KDFW option of “All Other 3-year-olds,” which closed as the 3-1 favorite in Pool 2, is obviously not an option available in Vegas future book wagering, so this isn’t a direct apples to apples comparison. Still, it might be enlightening to see what two different betting audiences have to say about the Derby right now.
What follows are the individual betting interests in Pool 2, eliminating Out of Bounds, who was injured Monday and is out of the Triple Crown. The first column of odds is their KDFW closing Pool 2 odds, and the second is their up-to-date Wynn odds:
Alpha 18-1 12-1
Battle Hardened 59-1 35-1
Bodemeister 29-1 28-1
Castaway 45-1 35-1
Creative Cause 17-1 24-1
Dullahan 26-1 25-1
El Padrino 12-1 12-1
Empire Way 37-1 35-1
Fed Biz 22-1 20-1
Gemologist 23-1 25-1
Hansen 9-1 12-1
I’ll Have Another 22-1 30-1
Liaison 39-1 30-1
Mark Valeski 38-1 30-1
Midnight Transfer 73-1 60-1
News Pending 45-1 50-1
Rousing Sermon 68-1 45-1
Sabercat 30-1 18-1
Scatman 97-1 100-1
Secret Circle 37-1 22-1
Take Charge Indy 38-1 45-1
Union Rags 4-1 4-1
Of the 22 Derby aspirants listed above, 14 have significant odds differences between the KDFW and Wynn. What’s surprising, when you consider how much of a percentage of the pool the KDFW’s “All other 3-year-olds” option takes, is that not every one of those 14 offer higher odds in the KDFW. But five of these 14 horses can be had at higher odds at Wynn, and depending on how you feel about these horses, that could represent significant betting value.
What is even more surprising is that some of these five are legitimately “live” Derby candidates. The five with higher odds at Wynn right now are Creative Cause, Hansen, I’ll Have Another, News Pending, and Take Charge Indy.
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I agree this is an interesting grid. The 4-1 may turn out to be an overlay and a gift in retrospect but I could not take 4-1 on Union Rags. He will be close to that in the Derby even after winning the Florida Derby in what I expect will be an average time. As brittle as American horses are now days taking low odds on a horse making the Derby does not entice me. They will line up a full 20 and folks will pour it in on every participant. A quarter horse who had been running 330 yard races would probably take $100,000 in WPS pools if allowed in the Derby. The days of a heavy favorite below 2-1 may be becoming a thing of the past.
Forgive me for regressing, the only bet I ever placed on horse futures was back in the 70's. The local barber was also a bookie. I asked him about Foolish Pleasure winning the Derby the next year. He offered 5-2. As a 19 year old and not knowing this could be a negotiation I took the first offer and bet what seemed to be a fortune at the time $10 on Foolish Pleasure. Sure was fun collecting $25 from Donald the barber that Saturday in May. Betting $10 on Union Rags to win $40 just does not seem to offer the same thrill. I understand those who find these future pools interesting and salute those that actually score. It certainly adds value by keeping the race in the public's attention.
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Sucker bets. I can see if you take a flyer at astronomical odds but most of these you can probably get odds close to what they'll be on derby day and at least they will be in the starting gate.
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I see that Harrington has decided to run both of his colts in the San Felipe Stakes . Hmmmmmm , as a fan of CREATIVE CAUSE im not too sure how to view this picture . I was 99.9% sure - that - CREATIVE CAUSE was going to WIN his next start , rather it be in California or Arkansas ! But Now , if by Chance EMPIRE WAY is anywhere close to CREATIVE CAUSE in the last 100 yards , with just them two to decide the out-come . . . . . Could the instructions from Harrington be - Let EMPIRE WAY go by CREATIVE CAUSE to win to ensure the graded earnings for the DERBY ! Ya Just Never Know ! I AM AT NO POINT CONCERN ABOUT F E D B I Z . CREATIVE CAUSE is too much for FED BIZ at this stage !
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Well I put $50 at 100/1 on El Padrino back in November, just hoping he stays healthy and makes it to the race. I also had $50 on Algorithms at 60/1.
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The odds are a little off there.
Fed Biz should be about 5-2 and Secret Circle is an underlay at 37-1 and 22-1. Secret Circle should be about 75-1.
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